UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Kai will come out swinging and land some great shots with good pressure, and i can basically see Cody showing more fitness in his footwork and showing better defensive skills, and even taking the fight to the ground at some point. Kai doesn't have Eugene Bareman in his corner, and his fight iq isn't necessarily extremely high. If Kai had Eugene in his corner, and at least he could've had a decent camp without all the New Zealand pandemic protocols and restrictions, Kai would definitely dismantle Cody Garbrandt

God please let be this the underdog night like previous sat. was...money money money for us without money...

After watching the Royal fight I feel pretty confident Cody gets a ko 

Do Bronx vs. The Diamond
Dustin Poirier via TKO rd. 3 

What a treat this is to close out year regardless of the fight outcome. Have seen a lot of people get upset over other’s predictions , so friendly reminder this is a forum where it allows people to speak their opinions and yes your favourite fighter can get Ko’d. Personally my more confident main event prediction slot for a few reasons. The pure standup goes to dustin, inside low kicks, clean boxing combos and goes to the body well. In terms of the grappling game I find it very hard to edge Olivera as poiriers 2 submission losses are very hard to gauge from. Only 2 submission loses are to TKZ @ featherweight in 2012 and to Khabib in 2019. (145 wasn’t good for Dustin or Charles. So how do you put stock in that when khabib would rag doll charles? Dustins a black belt in bjj and isn’t talked about enough. Dustin got the UFC first mounted triangle arm bar and it was against max holloway (maxes only finish loss). So lets compare last 5 fighters each guy faced. 
Charles Olivera - (chandler - bellator champ)
(Ferguson who looks washed as of late) 
(Lee no longer with the promotion) 
(Jared gordon ranked #31 LW)
(Nik lentz ranked #50 FW) 
Dustin Poirier - (mcgregor - double champ) 
(Dan hooker, what a war overcoming adversity)
(Khabib greatest lightweight to ever walk) 
(Max Holloway x2 greatest featherweight) 
(Eddie alvarez, lightweight champ.) 
The resumes aren’t even close. Charles had a long hard path to the title but I think this is Dustins time fellas

Someone explain to me how Cody has a glass chin/jaw? 

Nunes vs. Peña
Amanda Nunes, TKO, R2
mounted crucifix

He doesn’t. The notion of him having a glass jaw is fan perspective.  He got ko’ed in all three losses because He decided to brawl which resulted in him getting knocked out. You can even hear the announcers say, what a crazy decision by Cody garbrandt after he lost to Pedro munhoz. I think the font fight also proved he doesn’t have a glass jaw, as he ate jabs for 5 rounds straight 

I would argue Cody’s fight iq is the reason he gets ko’ed, not his chin. That being said, KKF hits very hard so I wouldn’t be surprised if Cody gets rocked or ko’ed by a punch 

Anythings possible but that statement is just stupid. 

Nunes vs. Peña
Amanda Nunes, TKO, R1
No Woman On This Planet Or Universe Can Beat Amanda, Can We Just Declare Her UNIVERSAL CHAMP ?

Cachoeira vs. Robertson
Gillian Robertson, SUB, R2
Cachoeira is flat footed and swings big, I think Gillian can fight smart and out grapple her. If she gets clipped on the feet tho, it might be over for her.

Silva vs. Wright
Jordan Wright, TKO, R2
Chris Farley, Please Bless My Dude - This Ninja Aint No Joke

Oliveira vs. Poirier
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R3
Dustin Is About To Have Khabib Flash Backs.... That's Not Hot Sauce Your Choking On Son !

The more times you get KOd the easier it is to get KOd in the future. That's probably why people are saying Cody has a glass jaw.
But even if it were true, he's not facing Figueiredo here. Kara-France is mostly a decision guy with one of the least fitting nicknames in the promotion.

Kara-France vs. Garbrandt
Kai Kara-France, TKO, R2
I'm Sorry But Cody Don't Look Good @This Weight He Looks Like He's Coming Off Chemo

Sakai vs. Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa, TKO, R1
@ This Point I Love Seeing Tai Win Just To See The SHOEY

You know, the more I think about it, the more I believe this card has the potential to be a disaster in a picking sense. I could go 4 or 5 from 14 here quite comfortably.

I have no idea who to pick in Garbrandt and Kai Kara France.  I remember the fight between Kara France and Bontorin very clearly, he was getting dominated in the grappling until he stunned Bontorin and got the win.  He didn't really put him out, he just stunned him, I remember Bontorin was arguing with the ref that he wasn't out.  Beyond that, Kara France was a decision machine like the previous poster said.  He also has an obvious weakness against grapplers so fade him against a submission artist in the future.  

In all of Cody's knockout losses, he gets caught during a wild flurry that puts him out.  It doesn't necessarily mean he has a glass jaw, it's just that he just gets too damn wild and leaves himself open which TJ Dillashaw and Pedro Munhoz were able to connect.  Those flurries could just as easily put his opponent out as well. He showed in the Rob Font fight that he does still have a good chin on him and still has heart to grind it out but he needs to work on his defensive boxing.

People throw around the "glass jaw" thing too quickly for some veterans.  Donald Cerrone is what we would call someone who was on top but now has a "glass jaw" because he has gotten knocked out by everyone from top tier to lower level fighters.  Cody Garbrandt is still not there yet but if he does get knocked out by Kai Kara France then yes he might have one.

But I still can't write off Cody Garbrandt yet.  Kai Kara France is not anywhere on the level of the people who have beaten Cody.  TJ Dillashaw would mop the floor with Kai Kara France, no doubt about it.  I just can't confidently pick Cody though because I wish he had a grappling/submission aspect to his game.  If he did, I would have easily picked him but unfortunately this is going to be a standup battle that Kara might win by split decision.

* Edited at 12.11.2021, 2:26 PM ET *

It's always harder to pick cards with more high-level fighters. They tend to be more competetive.

By the way why is there no Sharpe ratio on picks on this site (success compared to risk taking)? Would be cool to know if people picked Nothing but Nunes/Shevchenko fights or if they hit Shana Dobson's.

Man I would LOVE to pick Bruno Silva over Jordan Wright in my parlays but I hate Jordan Wright so much for destroying my potential winnings the last time he fought.  I had chosen Jamie Pickett because up to that point, Jamie had never been knocked out in his entire career and then Wright proceeds knocks him out in the first round.  

Bruno Silva has been finished 5 times by submission before in his career.  Granted, it was early in his career but this is MMA, a fighter like Jordan Wright who has a "kill or be killed" mentality as evidenced by his 100 percent finish rate in all his career fights can certainly knockout or submit Bruno thereby ruining the most confident pick of everyone on this card.

But like you've all said, Jordan Wright is a can crusher.  The guy has been knocked out twice already and I have been very impressed with Bruno Silva.  You can confidently choose Bruno Silva against Andrew Sanchez and Wellington Turman who are not known for finishing ability but I'm not so sure about being confident in picking Bruno Silva over Jordan Wright.  Going to skip betting or choosing that one for sure and just enjoy the show.