UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Did you really just call me a keyboard warrior… I thought I knew idiocy, but osama out here showing me there’s levels to this ****.

And, Ayy, I’ll respond to my logic for Ige in a bit.

👍 

Oliveira vs. Poirier
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R2
Good luck, Diamond!

Oliveira vs. Poirier
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R2
i'm gonna hedge here. dustin winning probably means conor immediate titleshot so charles winning is healthier for the division. so i'll pick dustin to make quick work and hope to be wrong.

Nunes vs. Peña
Amanda Nunes, SUB, R2
pena pushes forward, gets clipped, desperation shot, amanda takes the back, rnc. gonna need to hit some sorta weird switch in the transition if she has any hope.

Neal vs. Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio, DEC
still high hopes for geoff neal, seems to have the right frame for the division, but his medical issues leading into 2 losses has me a little more apprehensive. santiago came back after a while out and got sloppy but looked fined against baeza in a dogfight. i guess i'll go with recency bias?

Kara-France vs. Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt, TKO, R2
feeling like kai should be faster and could land a flash knockdown, but also feel like he's gonna leave himself open and oblige cody in a brawl after getting hit a few times.

O'Malley vs. Paiva
Sean O'Malley, TKO, R1
hedge, it's what i always do when i don't like a fighter. paiva has been in there with phillips though so at least he's seen some funky movement and angles so hopefully he can go a few rounds at least.

Emmett vs. Ige
Josh Emmett, TKO, R2
emmett is probably better in the chaos, not sure i can see this one being a clean/technical sorta fight.

Munhoz vs. Cruz
Dominick Cruz, DEC
i'll say dom's snakecharmer routine works and keeps pedro missing or stuck feinting.

Sakai vs. Tuivasa
Augusto Sakai, DEC
certainly lined up to be a stepping stone for tai, but i'm not convinced. sure sakai is coming off 2 ko losses, but it's to rozenstruik and overeem, not exactly any shame there. tai is coming off 3 ko wins, but 2020 struve, hunsucker, and hardy aren't super impressive. i'm gonna go slight underdog and say that tai can't crack sakai and ends up against the cage a lot.

Silva vs. Wright
Bruno Silva, TKO, R2
i'm high on bruno silva still (the shlemenko win) and i feel like wright leaves himself too open. both are finishers so it should be fun.

Muniz vs. Anders
André Muniz, DEC
i've come around to muniz, now have thoughts he'll be a contender, and i think he'll be able to win a technical battle against anders while winning the ground affair if it happens.

Blanchfield vs. Maverick
Erin Blanchfield, DEC
underdog of the night for me. i see a high ceiling for erin, not that miranda can't move up too, but i think she'll be forced to show off some more of her bjj tonight if miranda chooses to push forward.

Hall vs. Minner
Ryan Hall, SUB, R2
minner can probably win this standing, but i think he'll be too eager to see what happens in a scramble and it won't end well.

Costa vs. Kelley
Randy Costa, TKO, R2
costa's hands are super sharp and i think he can avoid tony trying to take him down.

Cachoeira vs. Robertson
Gillian Robertson, DEC
priscila has the heart to win the striking exchanges, but i think the expectation is that gillian is smart enough to find an entry and take this fight where priscila has historically been neutralized.

So, for Ige I'm heavily favoring him here for several tangible reasons and a few intangible. The intangibles I'll get out of the way and not really count towards my argument because they are "intangible." This is obviously the layoff, injury, and age of Josh Emmet.

The tangible factors are primarily the clash of styles and versatility of Ige. We've seen Ige struggle with long range fighters who don't overcommit and have excellent pull-counters (Jung and Kattar). For this reason, if Ige ever fights Max I'd put the whole enchilada and take out a house loan to bet on Max. However, Ige excels at capitalizing on overcommitment. He's particularly fantastic and taking a punch (rolling or blocking) to deliver a punch. That's how he KO'd Tucker, and the only moments where he put Zombie in danger was when Zombie starting fishing for blood. Emmet is a WILD puncher, really that's all he is. He's like a much better Tyron Woodley. Now that style is not a neg on Emmet, but if you're fighting someone like Ige who has tasted the hardest shots in the UFC and never been dropped... I'm worried. Just look at Emmet's miss rate with his striking, he usually wins by putting the fear of god in his opponents. And when they stop being afraid of him, he gets in real trouble because of how much he overextends himself. I just see Ige's counters being a huge component.

I also rate Ige's jitsu and mixins way above Emmets. Now, even though they've fallen out of style in the last few years from where they were, I still rate Team Alpha Males wrestling game, so I'm not sure Ige will actually get Emmet down, but he can cause a lot of rhythm breaking which will make Emmet miss even bigger. I don't know if Ige will KO Emmet, but I think Ige isn't going to be cowed by the power like Emmet's last opponents were.

The only anomaly is the Shane Burgos fight, but I'm not sure if the Burgos power is legit seeing Billy Q eat it like candy for three rounds.

Oliveira vs. Poirier
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R3
50-50 Fight. If we analyze the last 5 victories of the two, clearly Poirier has defeated more established fighters in the UFC and with a higher position in the ranking, but the evolution of the last 3 years of Charles Oliveira is superlative, sweeping away anyone who have put ahead. In terms of technical level: in striking Poirier has the advantage with his boxing, but Oliveira is not left behind with his powerful Muay Thai with which he even won the championship by KO. In grappling Oliveira is superior and this is fundamentally demonstrated by the fact that he holds the record for the greatest submissions within the UFC above BJJ Legends like Royce Gracie and Demian Maia, but Dustin has a great defensive BJJ and ability to perform well. in the scrambles this might not shine against Khabib but it was the key to victory in the Poirier vs. Pettis. For me it is difficult to pick against Poirier because I chose him in every fight of that run that started against Bobby Green and ended with that excellent victory against Holloway (where he was the Underdog and entered as a replacement for Ferguson), but I think it is very underestimated the striking of Charles Oliveira and I believe that that is where the path to victory for the Brazilian begins.

Neal vs. Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio, DEC
Both are very good strikers, but there is a difference on a mental level: Ponzi has been fighting in the top 15 for years, after starring almost 2 years out he had a difficult defeat by KO against Li Jingliang, but despite that he obtained a great comeback victory against Miguel Baeza after even clearly losing the first round. For his part, Neal has had a hard time getting used to the fact that there are no easy matchups in the Top 15 and that there are the fighters with the most skills in the category. Neal has great KO power with his punches and kicks, but I think Ponzinibbio will be able to impose his boxing the way he did in the past against fighters like Sean Strickland, Court McGee and Mike Perry (strikers with good KO power).

Kara-France vs. Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt, TKO, R1
Changing the weight category can be a difficult process, but with the correct nutritional counseling it can be much less complicated. The process has 3 steps: give the weight in the weigh in (Cody and mark 126 pounds), that the fight does not fall due to the immediate effects of the weight cut (unfortunately the fight of Perez vs. Schnell had to be canceled for this reason, but it is another step that Cody managed to overcome correctly) and the rebound effect (which, apparently at the ceremonial weigh-in, Cody did indeed achieve). Garbrandt during these years was a small bantamweight, but now he is a massive flyweight. In more than 10 fights at bantamweight Cody achieved an impressive record of practically one knockdown per fight and the power of KO is something that manages to maintain and even increase when one moves down the weight class. Kai Kara-France is a tough opponent and an interesting test for a former 135-pound champion. but in the past Kara-France suffered flash knockdowns against fighters like Elias Gracia and Brandon Royval (which are not specifically known for their KO power) and I consider that if Garbrandt lands a Stone Punch (strong punch with great speed) in some At the moment that Kara-France did not expect it, the fight will end by KO in the form of Garbrandt vs. Assunçāo. This will undoubtedly be one of the most interesting fights of the night.

Emmett vs. Ige
Josh Emmett, TKO, R2
We don't know that Emmett will also return after injuries that kept him out of the octagon for over a year, but what I do know is that Emmett is a tough wrestler with incredible KO power (average of 2 knockdowns per fight at featherweight) and that in striking his KO power is dangerous for any fighter. Ige is a tough fighter with good precision, but Emmett is more tested and has been more successful against elite fighters.

Munhoz vs. Cruz
Dominick Cruz, DEC
Pedro Munhoz has good leg kicks and good KO power in his punches, but presents a clear disadvantage in reach against one of the more difficult fighters to hit in the head (excellent head movement and footwork). TJ Dillashaw, who has the highest percentage of significant strikes connected in the category, hits the air practically all night when he faced Dominick. In this fight, it seems to me that Cruz can take advantage of his unorthodox striking (especially due to the fact that, being willing to trade, Pedro receives a large percentage of punches) and use takedowns to dominate, always with the precaution of avoiding some Munhoz guillotine.

Silva vs. Wright
Bruno Silva, TKO, R2
Wright might have a chance if he lands a powerful knee in the clinch. But Silva should not have problems winning by KO, in UFC Silva has managed to find his space to connect powerful strikes against fighters who have wanted to dominate him from grappling, this time the fight will be from a distance so it should not be complicated for him connect powerful punches

Muniz vs. Anders
André Muniz, SUB, R1
High risk fight: Muniz can undoubtedly subdue Anders if he takes him to the ground or if he catches him with a guillotine from the clinch. But Anders could also easily knock out Muniz with a good combination of punches. I choose Muniz because Anders is a very uneven fighter, but if Anders gets the KO I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Blanchfield vs. Maverick
Erin Blanchfield, DEC
It is a close fight, but I think Blanchfield can bring out the best in the exchanges and use his fight as a tiebreak when necessary. Maverick has a good grappling base, but if Maycee Barber and Gillian Robertson managed to bring her to the ground at specific moments, I think Blanchfield can do it to finish convincing the judges in close rounds.

Hall vs. Minner
Darrick Minner, DEC
Minner has better striking technique and better wrestling. it's just up to him to follow his corner roadmap, to watch out for the Imanari Roll and not try his guillotine choke on a grappler like Hall. In his previous fight Minner even struck out Darren Elkins, but in the second round he disobeyed James Krause and the first thing he did was attempt the guillotine against Elkins. Hall has his attempts at heel hooks and long-range kicks, but Minner if he's disciplined can easily upset.

Costa vs. Kelley
Randy Costa, TKO, R1
Kelley has a Kyokushin Karate base, in addition to being dangerous with his back on the mat and having better cardio. But it seems to me that Costa has incredible KO power for his weight class and with Sanford MMA he will be able to exploit his full potential. Taking into account that at times Costa hurts Yanez a lot, there is no doubt that Kelley may have a better chance as the minutes go by, but it is also a fact that Costa could knock him out in the first round with the power of his combinations.

For the betting people, Nunes 1st round might not be terrible, Nunes wins are almost all first round finish or decsion, I think the only exception is the Pennington fight, Using that fact, Nunes decsion might not be terrible, but I’m slight leaning more on Pena getting hurt bad

* Edited at 12.11.2021, 12:24 PM ET *

Oliveira vs. Poirier
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R3
I have two options for this fight. Charles is a very dangerous opponent and a legit threat to Dustin Poirier. Dustin has really improved his game that we saw in the McGregor fight. If he has that pace, Dustin wil knock this guy out in under three rounds. But if he couldn't, Charles is going to take over in the fifth round by decision. So, don't believe in any interest BS. Charles has a chance of winning but Dustin has that confidence.

Oliveira vs. Poirier
I am absolutely awful with main events but I can't bet against do Bronx. Chandler had him dead to rights. Chandler not getting ultimately finished by Gateje in their fight was an eye opener for me. If this fight is anywhere but on the feet, Poirier is in trouble. If this fight was a carbon copy of Poiriers figth against Khabib I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. Poirier only path to victory IMO is hurting do Bronx early (round 1-2) to the point where he's SO compromised his grappling ability is severley hindered, allowing him to continue chipping away towards a late finish (I'm not convinced such a thing is even possible). 

Nunes vs. Peña
Murder, part 2. 

Neal vs. Ponzinibbio
Absolute banger. I don't love MMA math but Ponz finshed Magny and Magny looked bored fighting Neal by round 3. This is a better version of Neal no question but I still have to take Ponz. 

Kara-France vs. Garbrandt
I don't think KKF is that good and I'll happily eat crow if he gets a win here. Unless Cody's power is significantly impacted by the weight cut I don't see how he doesn't shadow realm KKF. 

O'Malley vs. Paiva
I was initially taking Paiva by decision but I think O'Malley's reach and power will be to much by either late 2nd or early 3rd. That Bonterin Dr. stoppage is really hard for me to look past. 

Emmett vs. Ige
Emmett by split. This fight will be very close but Emmett's power will be the difference. Ige is as tough as they come but if Emmett is landing consistently he eventually starts to crumble everybody.

Munhoz vs. Cruz
Munhoz would need a finsh; I'd put the chances of it happening at less than 20%. Extremley unlikely but by no means impossible. 

Sakai vs. Tuivasa
If Sakai survives the first round, Tai is in trouble. 

Silva vs. Wright
Murder

Muniz vs. Anders
Anders will have to somehow out-strike Muniz and win a boring decision and I just don't see it. Eventually they're going to get tangled up and Muniz will abuse him. 

Blanchfield vs. Maverick
Maverick could get a finish here and honestly needs one to prove she's worth the hype.

Hall vs. Minner
Minner is a great opponent for Hall to bounce back. Tough fight but Hall is slightly better everywhere IMO.

Costa vs. Kelley
Costa striking should be the difference here but Kelley is a solid albeit unspectacular fighter. 

Cachoeira vs. Robertson
*insert everything I said about Cachoeira's last fight*

You make some pretty good points. I’m pretty sure stephens ko’ed emmett off of a counter punch too. I think if emmett does go to his wrestling, he could also win as ige has lost a lot of fights from ground control time. I agree too that he exposes himself way too much; as good as his hands are, he loads them up with such power that he can either miss or leave himself open to getting hit. 
 Unrelated, but to your point about burgos I think he’s still pretty powerful; billy q is known for having a chin. Should be interesting to see if ige can mess him up with the counter punching 

* Edited at 12.11.2021, 12:29 PM ET *

Nunes vs. Peña
Amanda Nunes, TKO, R2
Amanda as always. She is aggressive & she could beat her like the way she beat Cyborg.

I think the main argument against me is similar to what most people's arguments for picking Emmet are, just a bit more complex. Look what happened to Burgos against Edson. Ige has an amazing chin, but he's taking so much damage that it could crack at any point. And if there was ever a chin cracker in the featherweight division, Emmet is it.

I don’t get why muppets just down votes facts, it just stupid, fact just anger people for some reason,  it a fact that Nunes either finishes people in the first or goes to decsion in all but one of her fights , it a fact, check the database, Tapology will show that if you look

* Edited at 12.11.2021, 12:31 PM ET *

Yeah that’s for sure. Emmett has something crazy like 10 knockdowns in his last 6 fights lol; absurd 

Neal vs. Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio
I don't know about the method but Santiago has the experience and he has lost only 4 fights & won 28 of them. So it's an easy pick.

Kara-France vs. Garbrandt
Kai Kara-France
Qi am voting for Kai Kara because Cody's chin is a glass jaw right now. But that's not the reason. The reason for picking Kara is because of his experience.

Happy Fight day!