UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

he really does have that James Vick chin tho

Oliveira vs. Poirier
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R3
Had Oliveira beating Chandler by 2nd round SUB. I feel greasy and dirty going Poirier here but just makes too much sense his BJJ is great, takedown defense great, boxing great. Only thing that worries me is his boxing defense against Oliveira's swift and beautiful combinations. Think if Oliveira wants to win has to be in the first 2 rounds, after the 2nd I see Poirier running away with it. Not because Oliveira doesn't have a HEART, THAT IS ********. But because I think Dustin's boxing when he gets going and down the stretch is phenomenal.

Nunes vs. Peña
Amanda Nunes, SUB, R2
Pena is so sexy, sorry babe.

Neal vs. Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio, TKO, R3
DUI Arrest and Ponzinibbio loves war, Neal fell off a cliff in the 3rd round against Magny and ****tly paced himself for the Wonderboy fight. Gameplanning isn't his strong suit neither is driving sober so he spiced it up with some rum and coke.

Kara-France vs. Garbrandt
Kai Kara-France, DEC
I have a weird vision I keep seeing of Garbrandt getting sat down by France wether it's a KO or just a knockdown I have no clue as of rn.

O'Malley vs. Paiva
Sean O'Malley, TKO, R1
Paiva got caught so many times by Philips chaotic and aggressive style, in the 1st round Paiva got caught 4-5 times. Ultimately should of been a draw with Kyler. Only thing that scares me is O'Malley confidence to letting the fight keep going until he gets what he wants. But should be fine here.

Emmett vs. Ige
Josh Emmett, DEC
I want to say Emmett DEC winning with the harder strikes but does Ige get caught? I don't think so as of rn.

Munhoz vs. Cruz
Dominick Cruz, DEC
Like Cruz's little reach advantage mixed with his footwork, if Cruz can keep it on the feet and keep Munhoz chasing him around be able to get it done with a close DEC.

Sakai vs. Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa, TKO, R1
Tuivasa gets it done within 10 mins. Sakai seems to **** his pants when the man across from him has power. + Sakai lost to a washed Overeem lmao.

Silva vs. Wright
Bruno Silva, TKO, R2
Expecting Silva to take about 5 mins to get a good read on Wright might connect with some punches early, the footwork and reach but also Wright having power will give Silva a hard time for about 5-7 mins then Silva KO once he starts slowing and connecting on Wright.

Muniz vs. Anders
André Muniz, DEC
Think Anders is that guy who raises or lowers to his opponents level. But hasn't show me enough to beat Muniz, Muniz also is still relatively unproven other than ya kno.

Blanchfield vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Little too early of a push for Blanchfield, beating Alpar gets you a fight with a surging prospect in Maverick who arguably beat Barbar.

Perez vs. Schnell
Alex Perez, SUB, R1
Think Perez will want to get this to the ground early and end it, even tho Schnell has decent ground game I think having a standup war with Schnell imo is less likely to win.

Hall vs. Minner
Ryan Hall, DEC
Damn this one is a little confusing to pick but I think Hall should be able to get it done but fr *** was this dude doing against Topuria.

Costa vs. Kelley
Tony Kelley, DEC
Costa has to show me if he can't KO you in the first 5 mins, which Kelley hasn't been KO'd can he win a DEC. I think this goes to DEC and Kelley edges out round 2 barely and clearly for round 3.

Cachoeira vs. Robertson
Gillian Robertson, SUB, R2
Think Robertson gets her down and gets her out of there within 5-10 mins. Mazany was able to get Cachoeira to the ground almost at will.

* Edited at 12.07.2021, 10:37 PM ET *

Heart says Dustin, wallet says Chalie. The fact that Dustin is a favorite is kinda surprising. Chalie is the champ and looked damn good against Chandler. Dustin's line is inflated because he beat McFlurry back to back. Want Dustin to win but def throwing some money on Oliveira as a dog.

This guy gets it

Who likes Tony Kelley? Never been KO'D and most likely will take Costa into deep waters. Just not sold yet.

* Edited at 12.07.2021, 10:37 PM ET *

I have a feeling he might win too. Kelley also loves to brawl and can keep his pace for three rounds. Costa training at Sanford is huge tho so who knows if he’s made improvements 

I could also see a draw happening too. Costa could probably tee off on him for a round, gas, and then lose the next two. I don’t really see Kelley finishing him on the feet and Kelly does not shoot for takedowns so I don’t see him getting a sub on a gassed costa. Costas tdd is pretty impressive too

Might Parley up Paiava and Charles + something else. I do think Sugar*** wins, but there's no way Paiava should be such a massive dog.

I’m pulling for him to win but im going with Sean. It would be funny to see him get finished on a ppv again

Sean is going to destroy Paiva. Nothing else to be said. 

Never done predictions before, so I'll try it out.

Gillian Robertson vs Priscila Cachoeira
Robertson via Submission, Round 1
Robertson is a really good gatekeeper in the Flyweight division, and there's nothing wrong with that. Yes, you'll never be a champion, but so long as you're an interesting fighter, you'll have a place in the UFC for a while. Robertson is also pretty exciting, with decent grappling and a high finishing rate for the division. As for Cachoeira, well, two knockouts are good, but the fact that her two finishes were against Shana Dobson (who sucks except when you're off your drug high) and Gina Mazany (who gassed after a terrible referee standup). Cachoeira gets sympathy for getting mauled by Shevchenko, but I'm not impressed by her. I think Robertson isn't going to lie down like Mazany, and she'll exploit Cachoeira's lack of ground game.

Randy Costa vs Tony Kelly
Costa via KO, Round 1
Costa's explosive, and he hits hard. He gave Yanez a hell of a fight, and Yanez is a hell of a fighter. Kelly, meanwhile, isn't someone I know too well. I haven't seen any of his fights, so I don't know if his Fight of the Night with Kai Kamaka was a legit fight of the night, or a Cheyanne Buys fight of the night. Either way, Kelly's 34 years old in the Bantamweight division. Unless a miracle happens, he's likely just here to be on Costa's highlight reel.

Ryan Hall vs Darrick Minner
Hall via Submission, Round 1
Was Hall exposed in his last fight? Perhaps. It showed that he'll likely never become a champion. Perhaps even if he fought 3-4 times a year, he'd still never reach a truly elite level. However, I'm 100% certain that Darrick Minner can't beat Hall. Hall beat the breaks off of Darren Elkins, who is still a dangerous fighter, who, in fact, beat Minner. So, there's nowhere, not on the feet, and not on the ground, not even in a street fight, where Minner can win. Minner fighting Hall is the equivalent of any normal human being fighting Minner, he's toast.

Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell
Perez via KO, Round 1
Perez is the unfortunate victim of the UFC not seeing much value in the Flyweight division. I genuinely believe they tried, but fan reaction wasn't good. Thankfully there's been a renaissance in the division, of sorts. Sadly, it seems like non-title main events, or even title fights main eventing a show, aren't going to happen anytime soon. Which sucks because Perez is really good, having a finish of Jussier Formiga. I feel like he'll always be a top level gatekeeper, and that's bad news for Schnell. Schnell has a suspect chin, and he's been knocked out a bunch for the division. I talked more about the state of the Flyweights then the fight itself, sorry about that.

Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield
Blanchfield via Decision
I feel like Ronda Rousey had a sad effect on the state of Women's mma. Don't get me wrong, she is instrumental in it being in the UFC. However, it seems, to me, that there's a high expectation for the women in the UFC to be at such a level that they can compete with men. And when they're not at that level, of course, criticism is a bit more abundant then with male fighters. You can't be too attractive or people want you to lose, you can't be too homely or people aren't going to care about you, and that's kinda the dynamic of this fight. Two women who are fringe top 15 contenders for reasons not their fault. Maverick is at least good enough to defeat Robbinson, who I mentioned as a gatekeeper, but Blanchfield had an amazing performance against Sarah Alpar. Okay, maybe Alfar sucks, but hey, if you're a future contender, you've got to beat lesser competition in a convincing way. I feel like for the state of women's mma, this is a pretty high level fight between two raw prospects who'll likely never even sniff Valentine's greatness, but hey, fights gotta happen.

Andre Muniz vs Eric Anders
Muniz via Submission, Round 1
If it weren't for Hall vs Minner, this would be the easy pick of the night for me. I remember when Anders first debuted. I remember him being this big time project, they were even feeding Machida to him in his third UFC fight. Thing is, Machida won. Since then he's been rather unimpressive in pretty much every aspect of the UFC. He'll viciously knock out one dude then get gifted a bad decision. Land an illegal knee and have a boring fight. Anders goes to show that athletics can only take you so far. Muniz, meanwhile, is legit. Getting a submission over Fabinski isn't a big deal. Being the ONLY person to submit Jacare Souza, and breaking his arm while you're at it, is a big deal. Yes, Jacare isn't who he once was, but he still lost in pure grappling. Unless Anders lands a lucky punch or makes this a boring stand up fight, I don't see him winning.

Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright
Silva via KO, Round 1
I like Jordan Wright. I love people with unassuming personalities who don't take themselves seriously. I love nerds. Regardless of his spotty record, I like Jordan Wright. But Jordan Wright is screwed in this match. Silva is a killer, and his knockouts show that he's a killer. Maybe Wellington Thurman isn't a top notch fighter, and maybe Andrew Sanchez has a suspect chin, but I still remember when Silva knocked out Alexander Shlemenko, who had a dominant run as a Bellator Middleweight Champion, and arguably beat Gegard Mousasi (maybe, didn't see the fight.) Now, Jordan hits hard to, but the difference between these two is that when Silva is hit hard, he keeps going. When Wright gets hit, he stops. But hey, I'll always love my awkward, white Ninja, even if he gets creamed.

Augusto Sakai vs Tai Tuivasa
Sakai via Decision
I can't believe Tuivasa was released last year. Either I have a weird memory, or the UFC did release him sometime last year before the Struve fight. Either way, he's come back big since then, knocking out my Mom's favorite fighter, some poor ****, and Greg Hardy, the last one being on a huge Conar card. Safe to say, I'm shocked this fight isn't on the main card. Sakai, meanwhile, has hit his ceiling. Loses to Overeem and Bigi Boy have shown where his ceiling is going to be. That being said, I feel like Tuivasa's ceiling was hit with his loss to Ivanov. Tuivasa's good, but he'll always be a great knockout artist of low to mid level competition. Sakai, in my opinion, is a step above the Hunsuckers and Hardys of the world, and he'll win a comfortable, if boring, decision.

Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz
Cruz via Decision
Munhoz has all the tools to be a top five bantamweight, but he has a trait that means he'll never be elite, and that's hero worship. When Munhoz fights regular Bantamweights with not much name value, he's a wrecking machine, with wins over Jimmie Rivera, Cody Garbrandt, and Rob Font. But when he fights someone with a big name, he falters. Look at two of his last two loses. Frankie Edgar, who has been finished in his three loses, and Jose Aldo, who, in all fairness, has been unstoppable. However, against Aldo, he couldn't pull the trigger, and just seemed happy to be fighting his idol. I don't know exactly what happened in the Edgar fight, but it's weird to me that he could finish Cody Garbrandt but not Frankie Edgar. Maybe I'm wrong, but Munhoz seems to be one of those guys who chokes against the big names. Cruz is another legend of this sport who can take advantage of that hero worship. He proved he's still elusive, though still susceptible to leg kicks. But for someone who seems to have trouble pulling the trigger, I don't think Cruz has anything to worry about.

Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
Ige via KO, Round 1
So this is my wild pick of the night. Josh Emmett is close to becoming a Leonardo Dos Santos like figure, someone who rarely fights but brings a certain level of scary to his fights. Dan Ige, however, has deceptive power. Gavin Tucker is a tough son-of-a-gun, Ricky Glenn can speak to that, and he got wrecked by the first punch Ige landed. Though perhaps that was more precision than power, as Izzy would say. I feel like what's most likely going to happen is a decision, but I can't discount that Ige might land something clean, and that's what I'm betting on.

Raulian Paiva vs Sean O'Malley
O'Malley via Decision
I like what Sean O'Malley can be. I have no issues with how he handles his celeb status. I don't like how O'Malley treats this sport like it's boxing. Fighter Pay or whatever, the longer O'Malley toils with undercard people, the less I'm gonna care for him. Paiva, for his part, got lucky in his last fight, which should have been a draw. Granted, it was a hell of a fight, but he either lost, or it was a draw. O'Malley definitely showed that he can go a long time in his last fight, granted Kris Moutinho was more of a punching bag then an opponent, but I digress. Is Paiva a better fighter then Moutinho? Everday and twice on Sunday. Will he get gifted another decision? No. I'll be real, I feel like O'Malley's one of those fighters who's gonna get some "Sugar" from the judges. MMa judging isn't corrupt like boxing judging, it's just stupid. But I feel like regardless of how he does, Paiva's too tough to be knocked out, but there's nothing to show he can knockout out O'Malley. Okay maybe the De La Rosa fight, but besides that I don't see Paiva winning.

Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt
Garbrandt via Decision
So this is Cody's Flyweight debut. And this could go one of two ways. Either the Jose Aldo route where he finds new life, or the Cody Mackenzie route, where dropping weight means getting your chin cracked easier. Kara-France isn't an easy out. He's got great knockout power for the weight class, and he's quick as hell. Cody isn't coming into an easy fight, but he did show in his last fight that he isn't glass jawed. He went the distance with a known finisher in Rob Font. His losses to Dillashaw and Munhoz could be attributed to him fighting for the "Just Bleed" Gods. I feel like as long as Cody fights within himself, he'll win a solid decision.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Geoff Neal
Ponzi via Decision
Ponzi's first fight this year, and first fight since coming back from a near career-ending injury, couldn't have gone worse. He was finished in a single round by Li Jinliang, and it seemed like his title aspirations were gone. He lost the first round to Baeza before he made a hell of a comeback. Ponzi is still a dangerous striker, and he's still tough as nails. Both of which describe Neal. Neal went 5-0 to start before loses to Wonderboy and Magny showed he doesn't have the key to the gate. Now, he could still knockout Ponzi, but that might speak more to Ponzi being done as a title contender then Neal having title aspirations. Hopefully this fight does happen...given Neal's gun arrest.

Amanda Nunes vs Juliana Pena
Nunes via KO, Round 1
Yeah, no, Nunes is going to kill her. To be honest, I'm not fond of Pena's trash talk. Not so much the fact that she's talking trash (I get it, you're fighting the most dangerous woman in the world. It's psychological), but it's the details of the trash talk that makes me hope she gets crushed. Saying that Nunes is afraid of fighting her, saying that her camp is drugged up, **** like that is annoying to me. If you get submitted by Germaine De Randamie, then you have no right to call Amanda Nunes a coward. So yeah, I called Hall vs Minner lock of the night, but only because this fight is like Thanos. Inevitable. And it wouldn't be fair to compare it.

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
Oliveira via Submission, Round 3
Man, this fight has Jan-Glover vibes, where you'd be happy regardless of who wins. Though, I'll be real, I really want Oliveira to win. I legit cried when he won the belt. Legit tears. I remember the first time I ever saw him fight over a decade ago against Efrain Escudero. I remember the calf-slicer. I remember the weird knockout to Cub. I remember the first time I heard his entrance theme during the Frankie Edgar co-main event (O Hino by Fernandinho). I remember when he allegedly tore his throat against Max Holloway. I remember when he BADLY missed weight against Ricardo Lamas. I remember when Felder smashed him. I remember when he tapped out Clay Guide and thought nothing of it, not knowing that would be the start of his current winning streak. When Charles Oliveira was booked against Tony Ferguson, I assumed it was going to be a bounce-back fight for El Cucuy, and instead it became the catalyst for Oliveira's reign. When he knocked out the Golden Boy and became champion, after all the hard work, after all the horrible losses, after getting dropped in the first round, and against someone who, while he worked extra hard outside the UFC, was getting a title shot in his second fight, it was a legit Cinderella story. I watched him put on his glass slippers. Poirier has been though just as much of a grind to get here, from being a Featherweight gatekeeper whose loss to Conar propelled the Irishman to superstardom to being one of the true elite of the elite at Lightweight (with a random ass loss to Michael Johnson along the way). He won gold fighting a more elite version of Max Holloway and outboxed the best boxer in the UFC. Yes he lost to Khabib, but so did 28 other people. Then he wrecked Conar twice this year, made a ton of money, and has been helping out people with his wealth. But for some reason, I really want Charles to win. Perhaps it's an investment thing, perhaps it's because Charles never had the McGregor fights, but I feel like Charles needs this win more. Don't get me wrong, I'll be happy if Dustin can pull it off, because lord knows that man has earned it. But I'll hold out hope for my boy.

There's no doubt that Costa is going to land that high kick combo which is his favorite combo in the 1st round.  The question is if Kelley has the chin to withstand those shots?  Has Kelley fought anyone with the finishing power that Costa has?  Kai Kamaka is the best striker that he has fought but Kamaka is not known for power as Kamaka has never knocked anyone out in his MMA career.  

I don't hold the Yanez loss against Costa, Yanez is a future title contender.  He also pieced up Yanez in the 1st round but Yanez has a monster chin on him.  I also feel that he has improved greatly since the Brandon Davis fight, he was very reckless in that one which caused him to gas out.  

I'm going to take Randy Costa by first round TKO.  

I also wanted to add I feel that there will be at least four or more 1st round finishes on this card.  Just a feeling.

* Edited at 12.07.2021, 11:30 PM ET *

Love O'Malley. People talk **** but he is a pure joy to watch. Weird yet fluid, style is just unique. OMalley/Oliveira/Tuivasa parlay looks good.

Sean O'malley is a pile of ****. He has never beaten anyone good, and never will. Paiva isn't a world beater either, and he will probably lose here. But in no dimension does Sean being -300 make sense, and if you bet him at those odds, you're ********.

* Edited at 12.08.2021, 12:48 AM ET *

I agree, it looked like kelley could take a punch, but kamaka is a decisionator and really doesn’t have much power. There were some points in that fight where Kai hit him with a flurry of punches and I couldn’t help but think that if costa does that, then Kelley probably gets tkoed. I am just worried if it goes out of the first round. Maybe Kelley is a good live bet spot 

C'mon man he dropped Vera