UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2

Reis vs Pantoja

Reis, submission R2.


Pantoja has a lot of potential, but Reis AKA mini Yoel is too much for him at the stage of things. Reis will take him down and control him there virtually at will. Whether or not he gets a sub or not remains to be seen, he may just win a decsion, or possibly hit a TKO in the third.
confidence: 70%.

Grant vs Jouban


Grant, KO/TKO round 1.


This is a bad fight for Jouban, who is a slow starter and doesn't have the best hands or striking defense, and Grant is a big, fast puncher. This will probably be another head on the mantle for Grant who is proving to be one of the most dangerous finishers in the division.

Confidence: 70%.

Griffin vs Imadaev

Griffin, dec.

Very hard one to pick. Max has certainly laid some eggs in his last few outings, but he's also fought much stiffer competition. Imadaev has a lot of can crushes in his meager 8 fights inside the cage. That stated, he's finished almost everyone that's been put in front of him. I have to go with Griffin, because Imadaev is a striker, not a wrestleboxer which seem to give Max the most problems. I think Griffin beat Alves, albeit by a bee's ****.

Confidence: 50%.


Rountree vs Anders


Khalil rountree, KO/TKO R2.


Another tough one to call. I'm mostly taking rountree because I officially departed the Anders train after that absolutely pathetic performance against the ring *****. Rountree is the more aggressive fighter, and since both of them have the fight IQ of your average Christmas ham, I'll take Khail by committing more and either landing something, or winning by decision. 

confidence: 55%.

Muhammad vs Millender


Millender, KO/TKO R1.


I think Curtis is going to catch Belal before he can execute his wrestling attacks. It's that simple.If that doesn't happen, Millender will get GNP'ed to death or subbed.


confidence: 30%


Turner vs Frevola


Turner, decision.


The definition of a coin toss. Frevola is the more intelligent fighter, turner is the better striker. I have no idea who wins this. I'll take turner I guess.


confidence: 20%


Salmon vs Taha


This is a good fight. This is a really, really ******* good fight that will absolutely be violent and end in a finish. They're both about equal in terms of power, Taha is probably a wee bit more slick, but Salmon is better at finding openings. He's got the better conditioning and has an iron chin. I think he wins by KO/TKO here. Someone is going to, anyway.


Confidence: 65%.

* Edited at 04.06.2019, 12:23 AM ET *

@Detroit true that my bro, the Zac Riley decision was utter horse ****. Shouldn't have even been a split.

Imadaev is good. Heavy hands, plenty tough. Not sure he's got enough for Griffin though assuming Max turns up. If we get the Griffin that fought Perry he will romp it in and probably win by KO/TKO. He's taken a **** in his last couple though.

* Edited at 04.06.2019, 1:51 AM ET *

I apologize as well. 

I'm 100% in agreement that Max is a pretty odd, tough match-up for Zelims debut. Really need the face-off to see if Zelim is feeling the UFC pressure, if not, he could very well clip Max early & often. Otherwise, Griffin will probably take over late IMO anyway. Zelim is exciting & has natural power, but as we all know, Griffin has the better experience. 

OSP vs Krylov II
*shrugs* 

Gastelum vs Adesanya

Essentially everything about this fight centers around two things:

a) Can Adesanya stay on his feet
b) can Gastelum bunch Adesanya up and use his fast pocket striking to beat him up and/or KO him.


Everything else is pretty much commentary. On the first point, Gastelum actually doesn't have amazing TD accuracy. It's only 50%, which isn't ****-melting awesome by any stretch of the imagination. Now consider that Adesanya has a TDD rate of 85%, the fact that he's a good dancer, very mobile, and this paints a clearer picture of the probability of Adesanya getting taken down enough for this to be a deciding factor in this fight. Kelvin may get him down once or twice, but he'll spend a lot of energy trying to do it, for little to no reward.

On point b, Adesanya is a much, much better and more diverse striker than Gastelum is or ever will be. Gastelum does one thing well, and that's hit like a mack truck in the phone booth as he is planted heavily as an ancient redwood. He has very fast short combinations, but they are predictable, and He cannot strike moving backwards, and cannot strike off the balls of his feet. I fully expect Adesanya to basically eat him up standing in every situation that isn't very intimate range, making Kelvin chase him, hit a lot of air, and punch himself out for not much effect.

I think Gastelum has a puncher's chance in this, and not much more. To win, he needs to march Adesanya to the fence, and stick to him like **** to a blanket, mixing in single legs with dirty boxing. Whenever Adesanya gets space, he'll absolutely dominate the fight. Kelvin has got to force firefights by getting Israel out of the center using pressure wrestling and grappling, and take advantage of them heavily when they emerge. If he doesn't, he'll get teeped and kicked to bits. His best strategy is to go nuts right out the gate, try and take three, and coast or survive in the last two.

And I expect Kelvin to follow that game plan until he tires out, either at the end of the third or the opening/middle of the fourth. I don't think he can keep up the pace required to win, and will get finished in a state of depletion. Which will suck, because I like Kelvin but really he has no business with the real cats at 185, and because he's a fat ****** he can't drop down.

Adesanya KO/TKO R4.

* Edited at 04.10.2019, 12:33 AM ET *