UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I think Oleksiejczuk is that fighter who can catch Pereira's chin.

also very interesting on what level MVP really is, we will see

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R3
This is a WILD fight! Riding with DP

Yan vs. Song
Yadong Song, DEC
Such a fun fight, really hope Yadong takes the dub

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
Gamrot gets some half questionable wins in his favour, this isn't that case and should be a convincing win for him

Despaigne vs. Parisian
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R1
Not messing around here, night night

Burns vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R3
Burns is very tough and has a will to win but his best days are behind him. He has fast hands but his striking is basic - he doesn’t often throw in combos, mostly relying on his jab, lead hook, and overhand. His grappling is dangerous but he can’t be counted on to reliably shoot/complete takedowns. I’m not completely convinced by JDM’s striking yet - he was able to string together KO’s against lower level opponents but his last two are pretty concerning. JDM was landing against Holland and Hafez without much impact. And Hafez was more successful than I wanted to see at taking Jack down and threatening subs. If Gilbert doesn’t settle for keeping this on the feet, I think he has a good chance of a sub/controlling decision. If he can keep it standing, I think JDM can get a late TKO.

Paulino Hernández says:  my heart is with dustin but the favorite is benoit”

Might not effect how you see the fight but just a reminder that Lins and Cutelaba fought Boser in different weight classes. Lins was 230lbs when he fought Boser. He has looked like a completely different fighter at 205. Going back and watching him strike at heavyweight is actually kind of wild. He's much faster now. 

Lins has yet to be taken down in 5 UFC fights but he's also only had to stuff 4 takedowns. 

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Sean O'Malley, DEC
I think Vera is just not that good. He has 8 losses and he will get outstruck by Sean.
Sean is faster and flashier(helps with the judges). Also has better camp/money and he had all the time to study Vera.
I think also that O'Malley is still improving a lot and he showed it vs Sterling.
Also if it will be a close decision Sean will take it for the style and also cause he's one of the main stars of the Ufc and often we saw judges favor the stars.
My 2nd most confident pick of the event.

Holland vs. Page
Kevin Holland, TKO, R2
I think that Holland is more tested and has fought better competition than Page. MVP is also older.
But this fight is really unpredictable cause Kevin is the definition of unpredictability.

Burns vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R3
I think JDM has good tdd and is faster than Burns. On the feet della Maddalena will hurt and slow down Burns.
I think also that Belal already showed how to beat him and it won't be too difficult to follow that path.
The possibility of a Burns sub is still there though.

Blaydes vs. Almeida
Almeida, SUB
I think Blaydes has bad fight IQ and bad grappling. He's also in a speed disadvantage compared to Almeida.
I think on the feet Blaydes has a slight advantage for just being bigger but as soon as this match hit the mat Almeida will sub him. Blaydes might also gas. Forget about the Almeida-Lewis match cause something was clearly suspect in that match.

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
I don't see any path of victory for RDA. He has bad tdd(56%). He'll be outpaced and outwrestled by Gamrot in a huggingfest.
My most confident pick for 299.

Pereira vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michel Pereira, DEC
I think Pereira wins, he can mixes it up cause Oleksiejczuk has shown awful tdd(48%) and also on the feet is more skilled and athletic to not get caught and blast the better punches/kicks.

Benoit has fought cans 
When the bullets are flyin give me Dustin Poirier everyday of the week

Let's appreciate this week while it lasts because the 4 cards between 299 and 300 are garbage 

@Mothswords 

Tis a heavy run we go on... Think of the positives we still have fightweeks every week! Weeks off are a killer

@Mothswords 

Ribas vs. Namajunas FN is a f*cking nightmare. Textbook example of a bad apex card.

Sadly that's the best card out of the 4. The tuivasa vs tybura card is extremely terrible 

I actually think this fight might is better than tuivasa vs tybura lol. There’s like 5-6 solid fights on here but I’m struggling to find more than 2 on that card

Interesting fight. I am fairly high on Cutelaba winning here. Several red flags that I see in Philip Lins game. First of all, he pulled out of this fight previously, claiming he had “food poisoning “. This isn’t a first time we have seen UFC fighters do this, hoping to actually get a different opponent to fight. Armen Patrosyan pulled the same crap, when he didn’t want to face his last opponent. With all of this being said. Although I do believe things happen, and fighters can get sick. But, I just don’t believe Philip Lins story here. I am fairly confident that Philip Lins knows he is going to lose this fight. I can’t find any reason to really change my mind here. Philip Lins I suppose is not a bad striker, but honestly… who has he beaten in his recent career that’s not washed by now?  Even with Cutelabas LOW fight IQ moments, and a sus chin. I think he gets this done by another brutal KO.

I think this fight is much harder to call. I took Oleksiejczuk to win last fight by KO. I do understand the dog money here, but I can’t pick him to win in this spot, and here is the reason why. When I rewatched Oleksiezcuks last fight my issue I have with him is…. Although I know he has nasty power and can knock anyone out, he doesn’t do fairly well against fighters that keep the fight at distance maintain range and use leg kicks. His obvious other flaw is TD. One of the worst. He was technically losing his last fight until he found a KO. My gut was telling me he was going to get it, because I didn’t believe his opponent was very durable. This fight I just don’t feel comfortable with him winning. I do believe that Periera will maintain range and distance, and I also believe that putting away Periera would be very challenging, because so far he has shown he is durable. If my memory is correct he has only been KOed once, in his MMA career. Overall I think Periera is a much more complete fighter, he also has take downs in his back pocket. I know he hasn’t really shot much for them in his recent fights, but I don’t believe he felt he needed to, against fighters who aren’t very good at striking. This I think will be a different situation, I think periera knows the polish power has the power edge over him, and even if he tries to close the distance on Periera, I believe periera WILL shoot for take downs if he feels uncomfortable. Periera is the rightful favorite here. In my opinion.

Kinda shocked to see people taking Page. Page has beaten absolutely no one, if you compare him to the level of Keven Holland. I know people saying Kevin Holland isn’t trustworthy. But, I believe Kevin Holland is far superior of a fighter. Page keeps his hands way too low, leaves his chin right out. Has been flat lined, got dropped and hurt in his last fight “bare knuckle” and looked like was about to get finished towards the end of the round. Keven Holland has a sneaky nasty power. Feeling very confident on Holland to win this. 
So, give me Kevin Holland by KO, massive comeback and a statement after losing his last fight by a split. 

Page old 🚩 
Page first fight in UFC 🚩
Page chinny 🚩

@AyyLmaonnaise 

have a bad feeling Pedro munhoz fight will be closer than odds suggest, but I really like what you wrote and your take on the fight. I would have to agree Philip’s wins this. Probably with bouncing around like a rabbit in the cage like he has been fighting. Munhoz doesn’t like a lot of high pace movement.  Fight going to distance probably my safest bet here.

Yeah I think fight goes the distance or a play on munhoz point spread would be really good. I think this will be a competitive but clear fight; I see Kyler winning 1 and 2 pretty clearly and then 3 getting ugly as Kyler starts to slow down, so munhoz should at least be able to get one round on the judges scorecards 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

facts.

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Kyler is also a smart boy, he won't stay in the pocket unlike "El Guapo"

@SANGRES 

low key digging your burns pick. Might flip. I have bet Jack every fight. Not sure if I can pull the trigger, since burns has shown he can beat strikers time and time again. Unless Jack catches him like hooker did. 

* Edited at 03.06.2024, 5:19 PM ET *