UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega

Holloway vs. Ortega

Max Holloway, TKO, R4

Both of these guys have not reached their incredibly high ceilings when it comes to their future potential and it is still probably the best fight that could be made in the division right now. The thing I'm looking at here most is really just the volume that Max is going to bring here.  Brian has never fought anybody that throws as much as Max, except Frankie, and there is a huge difference between getting hit by Max than Frankie.  I see a close two first rounds with Max starting to put it on in the third and getting the finish in the fourth.

Jedrzejczyk vs. Schevchenko

Joanna Jedrzejczyk, DEC

This fight is extremely close, and if there is one thing that I'm not going to look at going in to this one, it's their past fights in Muay Thai.  Different sport and different time and will not sway my pick.  What I'm looking at here again is the volume, that Joanna can throw, and I'm hoping that will be enough to throw Valentina off her timing or struggle to hit the lighter faster Joanna.  The one thing that does scare me is that Joanna's chin has been tested before AND Valentina should have the advantage in the clinch (by being much stronger) and the advantage on the ground.  The fight is going to be close, real close.  With a pick rate of only 21% for Joanna, I'm willing to take those odds.

Oliveira vs. Nelson

Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2

Straight down the middle, are the picks right now and I don't see why.  Oliveira is going to come out swinging hard and often, and even though Gunnar did get finished in last fight due to strikes (well over a year ago) I don't see it happening again here.  Being as crazy and reckless as he tends to be, Alex will more than likely leave an opening for the sub savy Nelson to grab ahold of him and take him down.  With the strength of Oliveira it is very difficult to take him down for most fighters, but if there is one thing that beats out strength, it's technique, which Gunnar has a lot of.  Once on the ground Alex will be a fish out of water, just trying to use brute strength to get back up.  He'll tire and Gunnar will control and get the easy sub.  Look for it early in the second after Alex gets his shortly lived second win.

Kyle Bochniak vs. Hakeem Dawodu

Dawodu, DEC

A total pick'em fight.  With not being comfortable picking either guy to win this fight I'm playing along with the odds and going wth Dawodu.  When trying to make it to the top of the leaderboards you must pick some dogs to get you there, and Kyle does not seem like a live dog to me.  I've put my dog picks elsewhere on the card, but this can be a good win here for the people picking Kyle.  Seeing that Kyle has never been finished with strikes and Hakeem has not gotten a KO/TKO finish since 2016, I see this going the distance.  Boring pick all around, let's hope the fight is more exciting than this pick.

Thiago Santos vs. Jimi Manuwa

Santos, KO/TKO, R2

The one thing that really scares me about picking Thiago here, is the two month layoff he had from his last war.  There is no way that his body has fully recovered from his last fight. whilst Jimi has been gone for over 8 months.  That being said and just assuming two healthy fighters show up I like Thiago's chances of being able to catch the chin of Jimi Manuwa.  We've seen Jimi get caught a couple of times now, and it is no secret that he can be put to sleep here by Santos.  I do think that Jimi is the better stand-up fighter, but for him to be effective against Thiago you have to be more aggressive than him and landing shots that don't finish him in one blow.  You have to pepper Thiago and look to slowly beat him down, versus looking for that one killing blow.  Thiago also has the ability to take Jimi down and somewhat control Jimi on the ground.  If the finish doesn't come in the first, then I see it happeing late in the third or not at all.  If you're feeling saucy go with Thiago via DEC, but I'm feeling the first round TKO here.

Claudia Gadelha vs. Nina Ansaroff

Gadelha, DEC

Claudia is one of those fighters that seem like they're just good enough to win close decisions.  I've never been blown away by any of her perfermances so far in the UFC.  Her first three rounds in the second fight with Joanna were the best I've seen out of her.  I don't see this being a blow out performance by any means and I defiantly see her getting the win, but by no means am I touching Nina at 5%.

Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Burns, DEC

I was always high on OMA, but after some dud performances and some close call decisions, I'm going to ride with Burns here.  I think this is an extremely close fight on paper and I think it'll play out that way during the fight too.  If Gilbert can use his power shots to shut down the offensive attack of OMA then he should be able to neutralize the wrestling too.  I do see OMA getting the better or what I assume will be a lot of clinching in this fight, but I do see the judges liking Gilbert's attacks more that OMA, as I believe OMA will rely to heavily on the clinch.  Gilbert shouldn't be able to get a stoppage of any kind here, and it'll be one hell of a close fight, but I think Gilbert just manages a win here by split decision.

Jessica Eye vs. Katlyn Chookagain

Chookagain, DEC

Not much to say here.  Both are stand-up primamry fighters.  I like the younger and taller fighter in Chookagain.  She seems to be on a role lately winning four of her last five, while Jessica has only won 2 of her last 5.  Jessica was also dealing with things outside of the octagon for awhile and never seems to fully bring it anymore.  Not a blow out, but Chookagin should be able to pick a 28-27 decision win.

Eryk Anders vs. Elias Theodoru

Anders, DEC

This fight is kind of in the same boat as Burns/OMA where I think Elias might be the more "active" fighter if you will, but the power shots that Anders is going to throw here are going to look at lot more appealing to the judges.  I do think that we'll see a lack luster fight here either way.  Anders isn't the most aggressive against counter fighters such as Elias, and he's going to need a few flashy combos to steal what will ultimately be a close decision.  I noted earlier that I didn't like the quick turnaround for Santos above, and I don't like it here for Anders either, but in this case at least Anders is not getting into a brawl like Santos more than likely will.  If Elias can get the fight to the ground he can maybe expose that quick turnaround, but Elias is not top notch at takedowns, and it'll be damn hard to get Anders down. One thing to note it that only 38% of the people picking Anders to win are picking him to win by decision.  If you're taking Anders, then take that pick!  No shot Anders puts away Theo.

Brad Katona vs. Matthew Lopez

Katona, DEC

Don't know much about either guy here, so I relied heavy on research.  Katona looks like a decent prospect, meaning I would need to see another prospect across him to consider picking against heavy favorite Katona.  Standing at a 83% pick rate (Katona), Lopez is not my guy.  He's had a rough go in the UFC so far, and I don't see it getting any better on Saturday.  80% of people picking Katona are picking by way of decision and considering his last finish was in February of 2017, I don't see him getting one against Lopez.  Lopez is subject to KO losses, but with only 1 win by KO/TKO that happened over 4 years ago, it's not likely to happen here either.  Ride with the majority and use this as a safe pick to stay with the crowd, not a lot of moves here unfortunately.

Chad Laprise vs. Dhiego Lima

Laprise, KO/TKO, R1

Lima is been on the struggle bus for awhile now.  The guy does not have a win since 2016 and not a UFC win since 2014.  The easy pick here is Laprise but at a pick rate of 82% I need to find a way to squeak ahead if I can, so the real question is, can Chad find a finish here on Lima?  With 57% taking Laprise saying he'll get the TKO and given the rough path Lima is on, I see a TKO/KO stoppage early for Laprise, and Im hoping that'll get an early boost in points.

Diego Ferreira vs. Kyle Nelson

Ferreira, DEC

Newcomer Nelson is taking on Ferreria on super short notice on Saturday.  Being that this will be Nelson's debut and that it is against an underrated Ferreira, I don't see an outcome where Diego doesn't get his hand raised.  Only 43% of people picking Diego are picking him to win by decision, and considering Kyle has never been finished (fought OK competition), then that's what I'm going to roll with.  People are split so pick your poison.  Don't forget, this is not only short notice for Kyle, its also short notice for Diego.  So finding the finish on an opponent you basically nothing about, is going to be hard to due.  Ferreira with a unanimous decision win.

Aleksander Rakic vs. Devin Clark

Rakic, KO, R1

Not sure if it's octagon jitters or just a jump up in competition, but the UFC finish had evaded Rakic so far in his UFC career.  Here's hoping that changes on Saturday.  Devin Clark has been anything but impressive in his own UFC career, and he's facing a decent prospect on Saturday night.  The real question is does Clark get finished or does it go the distance?  With Rakic now having back to back decision wins, I feel extremely comfortable picking him.  This shows me that he can go the distance and his cardio can come with him.  I think that he's finally going to at home here on fight night and I believe he'll an early finish on Devin starting our prediction night off right.

Best of luck to everyone, and enjoy the fights!!

-LorenzoUFC