UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade

Alves vs Starapoli

Alves, sub.

Not impressed at all with Starapoli. He's got a bad a case of the old wanderlie silva plant and spam looping haymakers thing. He hasn't beaten anyone good, and he's hittable, and I suspect his TDD and sub defense is below par. The vet will take this.

Moises vs Hollobaugh

Moises, sub r2

Like mule says, Hollobaugh doesn't suck at all. He's solid, but he's always going to lose to anyone who is a specialist in some capacity. Moises did lose to Dariush but that's one hell of a draw to get on Debut, so you can't hate him for dropping that one. Moises can strike, and he can sub. Should sink something in here.

Trinaldo vs Ferriera

Ferriera, dec.

Very tough fight to call. If Massaranduba turns up he can easily win this. They're basically the same fighter, and this bout is a coin toss. That said, Ferriera looked good against Nelson, who does have power and solid striking. Trinaldo looked good against Dunham, but Dunham isn't great himself, and he can be controlled on the ground pretty easily. I'll take Ferriera as the younger man with more to prove with low confidence in the outcome.

Noguiera vs Spann

Spann, TKO R1,

Little Nog is probably going to get smoked here. Spann has really fast hands, tight combos and good power. This will be a standup battle, and Nog is ancient. He's had a good resurgence but I think this fight is where than ends. Highly confident in the outcome of this one.

Barcelos vs. Huachin Quiroz


Barcelos, KO/TKO R2


Quiroz is a really solid fighter, heavy hands, good conditioning, a very adept striker overall. However, he's coming up against an absolute savage in Barcelos here and on Debut no less. This is a very ****** matchup on behalf of shelby, both of these guys are going places and one is going to suffer a hideous defeat. I think that will be Quiroz. However, he should NOT be dismissed out of hand, because he is a proven finisher, and he definitely is better in mid range than Barcelos.


Bernardo vs Gatto


Bernardo, dec.


Another very hard fight to call. Gatto is good on the ground, and she has good subs. That said, Bernardo is a BJJ blackbelt and her top control is very strong. She also carries considerably more power than Gatto. She should get the win here.


Aldo vs Volkanovski


Volkanovksi, Dec.


Probably just a heart pick really. Props to Alex for taking this fight in Brazil, Aldo is gonna be ******* hard to deal with on his home turf, especially the current Aldo who simply does not give a single **** because he doesn't care about the belt anymore. Very hard fight for volkanovski to win considering how good Aldo is over two rounds, the judges will be against him, as will the crowd, and basically everything else. Aldo is a much classier striker and has seen everything that Volkanovski will bring. That said....WAR AUSTRALIA!!!


Cannonier vs Silva


Silva, dec.


It's actually amazing that Jared can make the weight. He has got to be the biggest puncher in the division by leagues. This is a very dangerous fight for silva whose reactions and timing aren'twhat they used to be. He did look very good against Adesanya, that said (edit: I think Cannonier would end Israel's life horribly) and well, Anderson Silva is Anderson Silva. He'll probably be on the sauce, too. I'm betting that he will be able to keep cannonier at range, but don't be surprised if he miscalculates and eats something. If that happens, he get blown out like a candle in a hurricane, because Jared can punch holes through  the fabric of reality itself.


Aldana vs Corriera


Aldana, dec.


Firstly, ***** corriera sucks--sheisn't good at all. She does however have the best ass in the UFC, She got outboxed comfortably by rousey who punches like a drunk ******** child with one leg shorter than the other.That said, Aldana isn't great either, and she hasn't fought anywhere near the level of competition that Bethe has. I think corriera takes her down. She actually has a good TD rate, and I'm yet to see Aldana tested in this capacity. That said, Corriera hasn't fought in two years since getting blasted into orbit so y'know, who knows. I'll take Aldana.

Andrade vs Namajunas final thoughts.

A few things:

I don't think Namjunas can beat Andrade for one primary reason; Andrade is not an outside fighter who will allow Rose to pick apart and counter her the way JJ did. She's a pressure fighter. Namjunas does well at middle distance. She's got great counter boxing which works well against thai fighters like JJ, but she's all at sea when she has someone up in her grill. Watch the KK fight. Now, anyone who thinks this fight will look like JJ vs Rose is going to be extremely disappointed. Rose is going to be the nail, not the hammer. People are, I believe making way, waaaay too many inferences from the JJ fight. It is folly.

Can rose KO Andrade? I strongly, strongly doubt it. She is essentially the WMMA equivalent of John Lineker; small, with huge power and a tungsten chin who is willing to eat one to give one back harder. She ate two flush head kicks from JJ and didn't even notice them. Think about that for a moment.

Can Rose win by sub? Yes. This is, as far as I see it, her only path to victory. That said, the devil's in the details, because Andrade has only been subbed by bigger women. When she has a strength advantage, which she will here, she doesn't even look like getting subbed. She can just power out of everything.

Now, here's the big one; Rose's TDD is 45% and she has never fought anyone remotely as good at hitting TD's as andrade, and has never fought anyone as remotely dangerous on the top as Andrade. Rose Namajunas is, ladies and gentleman, definitely getting taken down. Definitely. Bet the farm on it. Andrade's TD rate is 58%. The only question is whether or not Andrade gets subbed.

Why couldn't Andrade take down JJ? Because her TDD rate is 80%, and because she's much better at circling and trotting around on the pony. It's really that simple.

Who has the better conditioning? Andrade. And given that Rose is going to burning through gas either on her back, or trying to get back up, or just trying not to get taken down, Andrade will have a huge gas advantage in this fight. I fully expect Andrade to ragdoll Rose, walk through her shots like they are a cloud of gnats, and beat the brakes of her. I am very confident this will happen.

Andrade, TKO between 3-4.

* Edited at 05.08.2019, 6:10 PM ET *

@confusion true, but it's a bit like the house special; subject to availability.