UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

100% the poirier-BSD fight is gonna get cancelled

@LilBro123 

after listening to Burns during press conference then asking him if he would be willing to fight in Reno after this fight, and the way he responded he sounded extremely none confident he is going to win this fight. We shall see. I think Jack WILL KO him. 

It also amazes me how Munhoz has maintained to stay in the rankings. It seems like bantamweight is going to be a carousel in the next couple of years with young dudes like Talbott and Saaiman still finding their footing in MMA and having dudes like Vinicius Oliveira, Lapilus, and Farid Basharat destined to enter the rankings at some point. You also have dudes that have the potential of climbing high like Daniel Marcos, Rinya Nakamura, and Marcus McGhee. There's probably about 6 -7 other names that could fall into that category meanwhile you still have a good amount of names at the top that are probably going to stick around in the rankings for a couple of years. It is why I think Yan is pretty much done with the UFC if he loses to Song which I think he will

Is there something going on with Poirier or BSD or is that dude just talking out of his ass?

 6. Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

• Predicted Winner:Jailton Almeida
• Method of Victory:Submission, Round 2
• Confidence Score:55%
• Matchup Breakdown:This matchup presents a fascinating stylistic contrast, with Curtis Blaydes' wrestling and striking up against Jailton Almeida's formidable grappling and submission skills. Almeida's tenacity and relentless pursuit of takedowns could be the key factors in this fight. Blaydes, known for his ground-and-pound and takedown ability, may find himself in unfamiliar territory against a grappler of Almeida's caliber. Expect Almeida to weather an early storm, using his grappling IQ to create opportunities for takedowns. Once on the ground, his superior submission game could allow him to secure a finish, potentially catching Blaydes in a moment of vulnerability

7. Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

• Predicted Winner:Maycee Barber
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Katlyn Cerminara's technical striking and Maycee Barber's aggressive approach make for an intriguing flyweight bout. Cerminara, with her experience and adept movement, will look to maintain distance, using her jab and kicks to control the pacing against the younger Barber. Barber, on the other hand, will seek to close the distance, leveraging her power and tenacity to pressure Cerminara against the cage and in clinch situations. The key to victory for Cerminara lies in her ability to outmaneuver Barber's onslaught and capitalize on counter-striking opportunities. For Barber, the path to victory involves cutting off the cage, implementing her physicality, and testing Cerminara's defense with powerful combinations and potential takedown attempts.

8. Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

• Predicted Winner:Mateusz Gamrot
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:In a clash of seasoned expertise and rising momentum, Mateusz Gamrot faces Rafael Dos Anjos in a lightweight showdown that epitomizes a veteran versus prospect scenario. Gamrot, known for his wrestling pedigree and evolving striking, presents a multifaceted threat to Dos Anjos, who has battled the who's who of the division. Dos Anjos' experience in high-stakes bouts, coupled with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu mastery and striking acumen, sets the stage for a tactical chess match. Gamrot's pressure fighting and ability to blend striking with takedowns could challenge Dos Anjos' defense and counter-grappling. This fight could very well hinge on who can better implement their game plan, with Gamrot likely aiming to wear down Dos Anjos over the rounds while Dos Anjos looks to exploit his versatile striking and submission skills.

9. Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

• Predicted Winner:Maycee Barber
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:  Katlyn Cerminara's technical striking and Maycee Barber's aggressive approach make for an intriguing flyweight bout. Cerminara, with her experience and adept movement, will look to maintain distance, using her jab and kicks to control the pacing against the younger Barber. Barber, on the other hand, will seek to close the distance, leveraging her power and tenacity to pressure Cerminara against the cage and in clinch situations. The key to victory for Cerminara lies in her ability to outmaneuver Barber's onslaught and capitalize on counter-striking opportunities. For Barber, the path to victory involves cutting off the cage, implementing her physicality, and testing Cerminara's defense with powerful combinations and potential takedown attempts.

10. Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

• Predicted Winner:Ion Cutelaba
• Method of Victory:TKO, Round 2
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:The clash between Ion Cutelaba and Philipe Lins showcases a stark contrast in fighting approaches, with Cutelaba's hallmark aggression and raw power pitted against Lins' technical and calculated style. Cutelaba, notorious for seeking early finishes with his overwhelming striking and dominant wrestling, aims to press the action and exploit his physicality. Lins, navigating the storm, plans to employ a strategic fight, utilizing precise strikes, defensive maneuvers, and opportunistic grappling to counteract Cutelaba's advances. The bout's outcome hinges on whether Cutelaba can capitalize on his explosive start to secure an early victory or if Lins can successfully mitigate the initial onslaught to implement his more methodical game plan, making this a compelling test of power against technique in the light heavyweight division.

11. Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

• Predicted Winner:Michel Pereira
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:Michel Pereira and Michal Oleksiejczuk bring a fascinating stylistic clash to the octagon, with Pereira's flamboyant and unpredictable fighting style set against Oleksiejczuk's more straightforward, power-based approach. Pereira's strategy often involves utilizing his athletic prowess to execute high-flying techniques and unorthodox attacks, which could serve to confuse and unsettle Oleksiejczuk. However, Oleksiejczuk's discipline and focus on fundamental striking might enable him to exploit openings in Pereira's game, particularly if Pereira's energy wanes. The key for Pereira is to maintain his unpredictability without sacrificing efficiency or exposing himself to counterattacks, whereas Oleksiejczuk will need to weather the initial storm and look for opportunities to land his heavy hands. This fight will likely hinge on whether Pereira can outmaneuver and outperform Oleksiejczuk with his dynamic offense or if Oleksiejczuk can catch Pereira with powerful, well-timed strikes.

12. Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

• Predicted Winner:Robelis Despaigne
• Method of Victory:KO, Round 1
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Robelis Despaigne enters the octagon with a less extensive MMA record but carries the momentum of an undefeated streak, all wins coming by way of knockout. His background in Olympic-level Tae Kwon Do and significant power in his hands makes him a formidable opponent for anyone in the heavyweight division. Josh Parisian, on the other hand, brings a wealth of experience and a versatile skill set, with victories coming from both strikes and submissions. Parisian's volume and ability to engage in prolonged exchanges could test Despaigne's stamina and adaptability in longer fights. This matchup will likely hinge on Despaigne's ability to leverage his wrestling background to control the pace and place of the fight, using his striking power to seek a finish. Parisian's strategy would benefit from keeping the fight at a range where he can utilize his kickboxing, potentially wearing Despaigne down over time. However, Despaigne's explosive power poses a constant threat, making this a compelling clash of Parisian's experience and tactical versatility against Despaigne's raw power and athletic prowess.

13. CJ Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev

• Predicted Winner:Assu Almabayev
• Method of Victory:Submission, Round 2
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:CJ Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev presents a classic striker versus grappler scenario in the flyweight division. Vergara, known for his high-octane striking and ability to deliver a barrage of strikes, aims to keep the fight on the feet where he can leverage his superior striking skills. With an aggressive style, he seeks to pressure opponents and create openings for significant strikes. Almabayev counters with a starkly different approach, emphasizing his robust grappling pedigree and submission prowess. His strategy revolves around closing the distance, utilizing strikes to set up takedowns, and dominating on the ground with the aim of securing a submission. This matchup hinges on Vergara's ability to maintain distance and manage Almabayev's grappling threat, making it a compelling test of striking agility against grappling acumen, where each fighter's ability to impose their game plan will be critical to securing victory.

14. Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz

• Predicted Winner:Joanne Wood
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Joanne Wood and Maryna Moroz enter the octagon with contrasting styles that promise an intriguing battle in the women's flyweight division. Wood, renowned for her Muay Thai striking and high volume approach, brings a technical and aggressive stand-up game, aiming to outwork Moroz on the feet with her precision, range management, and diversity of strikes. Her experience against top competition has honed her ability to deal with various fighting styles, making her stand-up game particularly dangerous. On the other side, Moroz, known as "The Iron Lady," combines her boxing background with a significantly improved ground game. Moroz's strategy will likely involve using her striking to set up takedown opportunities, where she can utilize her grappling skills and look for submission finishes, capitalizing on her recent focus on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. This fight will be a testament to Wood's ability to keep the fight standing and dictate the pace with her striking against Moroz's attempts to bring the contest to the mat, where she can leverage her submission threat. The key to victory for each fighter lies in their ability to control where the fight takes place, making this a captivating matchup of striking prowess versus grappling skill.

 

 1. Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera

• Predicted Winner:Sean O'Malley
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:60%
• Matchup Breakdown:Sean O'Malley and Marlon Vera's rematch is teeming with anticipation, largely due to the unresolved nature of their first encounter and the significant evolution both fighters have undergone since. O'Malley, known for his dynamic striking, exceptional range control, and creative attack angles, faces Vera, a fighter celebrated for his durability, potent counter-striking, and formidable ground game. O'Malley's strategy will likely revolve around utilizing his reach advantage and diverse striking repertoire to keep Vera at bay, scoring points with precision shots. Conversely, Vera's approach will hinge on closing the distance, applying pressure to disrupt O'Malley's rhythm, and seeking opportunities to bring the fight to the ground, where his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu could give him a substantial advantage. This bout is not just a test of O'Malley's striking versus Vera's grappling but a challenge to O'Malley's ability to manage aggressive pressure and Vera's capacity to handle elite strikers. The key to victory for each fighter lies in their ability to impose their game plan while mitigating their opponent's strengths, making this matchup a compelling clash of styles and wills.

2. Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

• Predicted Winner:Benoit Saint Denis 
• Method of Victory:Submission, Round 3  
• Confidence Score:75%
• Matchup Breakdown:Saint Denis' youth and grappling could significantly challenge Poirier, a seasoned fighter known for his striking and resilience. Poirier's experience against elite opponents, showcasing his striking precision and ability to navigate adversity, sets a high bar. However, Saint Denis brings a relentless grappling game and the kind of pressure that can exhaust opponents and create openings for submissions. This matchup could pivot on Saint Denis' ability to absorb Poirier's best shots and implement his ground game, potentially catching Poirier in a late fight submission after a grueling exchange of tenacity and skill.

3. Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page

• Predicted Winner:Michael Page
• Method of Victory:KO/TKO, Round 2
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Holland and Page are strikers with flamboyant styles, but Page's unique movement and precision striking stand out. Holland's versatility and willingness to engage in various aspects of MMA could play into Page's hands, who thrives in fights where he can control the range and pace. Holland's path to victory lies in pressuring Page and potentially exploiting Page's defensive grappling. However, Page's ability to land significant strikes from unconventional angles may prove too much for Holland, likely leading to a highlight-reel knockout in a fight filled with taunts and spectacular moments.

4. Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena

• Predicted Winner:Jack Della Maddalena
• Method of Victory:KO/TKO, Round 2
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Burns' world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and improving striking game make him a formidable opponent for any welterweight. Della Maddalena enters with less experience but has shown promise with his striking accuracy and power. Burns might look to bring the fight to the ground, capitalizing on his submission skills. However, Della Maddalena's takedown defense and sharp counter-striking could keep the fight standing, where he has a chance to outstrike Burns. The matchup will likely hinge on Burns' ability to close distance and Della Maddalena's effectiveness in maintaining range and landing powerful combinations.

5. Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong

• Predicted Winner:Petr Yan
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:Yan's comprehensive skill set and high fight IQ make him a tough matchup for Yadong. Known for his crisp boxing and formidable grappling, Yan can dictate fights both on the feet and the ground. Yadong, however, is no slouch; his power and speed have led to impressive victories. For Yadong to succeed, he'll need to leverage his striking power early and avoid Yan's takedowns. Yan, on the other hand, will likely use his boxing to set up takedowns and control Yadong on the ground, showcasing his versatility and aiming for a dominant decision win or a late finish.

 

@danromanick 

I was riding Yan all week till today. After doing further research, and everything they said to each other I have a bad feeling Petr is gonna go in there for the kill. (Meaning he is going to try to knock him out as fast as possible and prove to him who is the “better boxer”) . Because of that, I don’t believe he will be fighting carefully or with a high fight IQ. And if he is gonna stand and bang with Sog, well that will be bad news for him. Song is more durable and posses more power. So unfortunately I see Song to be the first fighter in UFC to KO him. Song is gonna get exactly what he wants. There is a reason he said “he’s the best boxer” he doesn’t want Petr to use other tools to win the fight. Just my opinion. We shall see. 

@MMAi 

page to KO him? What? No fighter in his MMA career professional or amateur was EVER been able to knock
him out, or even drop him as far as I recall. May I ask why is the PAGE the first guy to do it? Is he the hardest puncher or the best striker he has ever faced in his life? Is that your reasoning?

* Edited at 03.07.2024, 11:42 PM ET *

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R2
Staph Infection + Antibiotics equals poopy cardio, so early KO by Dustin because he won’t be grappled by this special forces guy

Blaydes vs. Almeida
Curtis Blaydes, SUB, R2
Almeida overrated af

@pashaboyer 

Agree on the fact that I aswell don't see MVP knocking Holland out. But the sport is unpredictable. You could of said exact same thing before Usman vs. Masvidal 2 or Pettis vs. Wonderboy for example and look what happend. You never really gonna know until it's fight night. Not saying your wrong but **** just might happen sometimes.

I have Holland koing mvp but the opposite would not be that crazy.
Flying knee or head kick maybe elbow.
Punches nope that is unlikely.

Kyle Daukaus dropped and really badly hurt Kevin Holland with a headbutt 

It’s illegal, but that the only time I really seen Holland hurt

* Edited at 03.08.2024, 6:22 AM ET *

Its' true that Blaydes has never had to deal with the grappling onslaught that's about to come his way. Almeida looks freakishly strong and his hype train is absolutely fuming. Full ******* steam ahead. This guys jiu jitsu alone is so good it makes him an automatic top 5-10 fighter at heavy and lhw. He's a tremendous talent. 

But I'm gonna play the fool and pick Blaydes. He's my most picked fighter on tap and it's weird when you have to think about fading him in this putrid heavyweight landscape. He's gonna have a healthy size advantage and some actual wrestling chops. At some point, I think that single leg is gonna get heavy for Almeida and that's when Blaydes will takeover.

If JDM pulls a guillotine against Burns my head will go.  

@pashaboyer 

The KO prediction for Michael Page against Kevin Holland in fight number 3 stems from several factors beyond just comparing the power of strikes or labeling Page as the hardest puncher Holland has faced. It's important to consider the unique aspects of Page's striking style, his precision, and how these could potentially play out in the matchup. Here’s a more nuanced insight into this prediction:

1. Striking Style and Precision:Michael Page possesses a striking style that is not only unorthodox but also incredibly precise. His ability to land strikes from angles that most fighters don't anticipate is a significant factor. Page's striking isn't solely about raw power; it's the precision, timing, and the way he sets up his strikes that make him dangerous. He often catches opponents off-guard, increasing the effectiveness of his strikes.
2. Fight Dynamics and Movement:Page's movement and fight IQ allow him to control the distance and pace of the fight effectively. His ability to stay elusive, coupled with his sharp counter-striking, means he can create openings for powerful shots, even against opponents who have historically shown great chin durability.
3. Cumulative Damage and Fight Strategy:The prediction also considers the possibility of cumulative damage playing a role. Page has the ability to wear down opponents over time with his constant movement and pinpoint strikes. A KO/TKO victory does not necessarily imply a single, fight-ending blow but can result from a series of strikes that progressively compromise an opponent’s defense and durability.
4. Psychological Factors and Fight Preparation:Every fight is unique, and psychological factors can play a significant role. Page's confidence in his striking and his ability to mentally engage and disengage with his opponent can create scenarios where even the most durable fighters find themselves vulnerable.
5. Evolution of Fighters:Both fighters evolve with each bout, and past performances, while indicative, are not absolute predictors of future outcomes. The prediction accounts for the potential of Page exploiting specific vulnerabilities in Holland’s defense that previous opponents might not have capitalized on.

It's crucial to acknowledge that MMA predictions are speculative and based on analyzing numerous factors, including fighters' past performances, stylistic matchups, and potential fight strategies. The prediction of Page achieving a KO/TKO victory over Holland reflects an analysis of how their unique styles might clash in this specific context, rather than a direct comparison of their power or historical durability alone. 

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Sean O'Malley, DEC
Chito starts too slow.. he will easily drop the first two rounds.. might find success in the later rounds but I think it'll be too late by then to rally up and find a finish. O'Malley will keep the distance and dictate where the fight goes. Vera struggleled against Sandhagen who is also a tall rangy fighter just like O'Malley. Also, ufc 297 DDP dethroned Strickland... ufc 298 Topuria destroyed Alex. Probably this trend of dethroning champs stops at UFC 299 even though my heart wants to let chito win. But my brain says O'Malley.

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R3
Poirier has fought the who's of who. He has one of the best resumes in the lightweight division. People counting out Poirier due to his last loss to Gaethje and his age. I think he survives the 1st round and slowly takes over as the fight goes on into the later rounds cos we have no idea how BSD looks in the later rounds. 5 round fight definitely favours Dustin especially if he survives the early barrage of BSD.

Holland vs. Page
Michael Page, DEC
I don't trust the fight IQ of Holland.. sometimes he looks like a world champ but mostly he seems to take fights with a very casual approach. MVP via decision.

Burns vs. Maddalena
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R2
Burns gonna derail the hype train of JDM. Two slplit wins in his last two fights going up against one of the most bad ass fighters in the division.

Yan vs. Song
Petr Yan, DEC
Yan is gonna bounce back even though I belive Song is the more powerful puncher.

Blaydes vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Almeida gonna pick him up, G&P until he finds an opening and goes for a choke

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
Gamrot via spamming Takedowns.

Im interested in seeing what O'Malley looks like in the fourth and fifth as we have never seen him there. Interested in seeing how he will fight the first 3 rounds knowing he will likely have to go the distance with Chito.

how many chat gpt'ers are there now, holy ****.