UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@ufc_1 I definitely agree that he can win the early rounds and agree that bsd has better cardio than chandler but the difference is how they wrestle. Chandler is a huge dude and on the rare times he decides to use it, he is pretty good at controlling people. BSD is a very good wrestler and also has strength but he’s not one of those guys who takes you down and holds you there for the whole round. I think he definitely will be able to score some minutes but seeing much smaller guys like bonfim and Moises be able to reverse him on the ground and get up makes me believe Dustin will be able to get up for the most part. 

@mikey I agree with most of what you said but I don’t think Dustin is that clueless on the ground. He has made a bunch of mistakes on the mat before but he is a pretty high level grappler and only lost to some of the best ever. Maybe BSD is that good and can finish him, we will see. Really looking forward to this fight 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Hey thanks for those breakdowns!

Just wanna say in regards to Assu - I'd say he has more than just the overhand right. His other quality attacks are his power uppercut, strong calve kicks, spinning back kick to the body, and I watched him use check hook counters many times when Makovsky entered in the pocket 1st

CJ is the more volume striker but Assu throws so much heat - If CJ is hesitant overly anticipating the TDs I think he gets hit flush hard

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 2:02 PM ET *

When I first saw MVP vs Holland my first thought was MVP is past his prime and Holland is about to show why UFC is the best organization in the business by a mile. But then I think of Holland's fight with Wonderboy and now I have no idea who to pick. MVP and Wonderboy are almost mirror images of eachother stylistically. If Holland wants to win this fight he's going to have to make it a true mma match and mix in the takedowns. If his pride gets to him like it did with Wonderboy and he just chooses to stand and trade with MVP it's gonna be a long night

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 2:27 PM ET *

Yan vs. Song
Yadong Song, DEC
I hope I'm wrong here

@DevinM34 

Wonderboy have very very more volume than MVP

One of my concerns with porier is his motivation. I had this concern with him before the Chandler fight & it's also why I picked gaethje in the rematch. Porier has nothing to fight for other than money. He's got the 2 money fights with McGregor, He's won a interim title & lost 2 title fights & really doubt he wants to fight islam. God damn I'm excited for this fight tho

O‘Malley vs. Vera
O‘Malley, TKO, RD3
Regarding who‘s gonna win this fight this is my only kinda confident pick on this card, since I don‘t really see anything significant that Chito brings to the table to beat him. Not confident in terms of the path to victory though. A decision win would be the most likely outcome since Vera hasn‘t been finished yet but I got the feeling if anybody can do it at bantamweight it‘s O‘Malley.

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Saint-Denis, TKO, RD1
To be honest it‘s hard to bet against Dustin because he‘s still at the very top of the division and even though Saint-Denis hasn‘t faced the level of competition to determine how he‘s doing at the top, I believe it‘s just his time right now. That being said I think this is the fight with the most possible outcomes for both guys of all of these fights. I can see both winning by KO, submission or decision. Only thing that‘s for sure is that it‘s gonna be an absolute banger of a fight.

Holland vs. MVP
Holland, KO, RD3
The thing about Holland is you never know how he shows up and how much he really wants the win, since he just likes to fight. Both have very similar styles and that also makes it hard to predict. I‘d give MVP the edge in power but I‘m gonna go with Holland here because of the better competition he faced and also being the younger guy. I could see this going to decision but he might break MVP down and find a finish late in the fight.

Burns vs. Della Maddalena
Della Maddalena, Decision
Also a very tough fight to predict. I believe it‘s a winnable fight for both and I give the edge to Della Maddalena for being a more technical striker with a solid takedown defence. Also him being 10 years younger than Burns is a factor that makes me believe, he‘s gonna pull it off.

Yan vs. Yadong
Yan, Decision
Tough matchup for both of these guys. I‘m gonna go with Yan by Decision. I just can‘t see him going on a 4-fight-losing streak and I think he will do everything here to find his way back into the win column.

When considering factors for picking a winner, the “organization” they fight for should be at the bottom of the list, if it’s on the list at all.

@Mr_Moon 

not true at all. What organization you fight for has a huge impact on the level of competition you've been fighting, which is one of the most important things when evaluating fighters. Guys in the UFC have been fighting the best of the best since they got here

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 3:57 PM ET *

MVP makes amateurs look like amateurs.

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Marlon Vera, TKO, R4
I think O'Malley is going to look very good early and skirt around the outside, switch stance and piece up Chito with his boxing early. Issue is Chito has a head made of granite and I'm fairly confident he's not getting finished. This could be a bit of a wild take but I have some question marks on Suga's cardio over 5 rounds, particularly if he's going to be on the outside with his striking the whole fight. I think Chito catches him with something big late. It's a scary betting proposition because good chance Chito could be losing every minute of the fight until he isn't.

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Dustin Poirier, DEC
I think this is a pretty bad match-up for Saint-Denis in my opinion. It's southpaw v southpaw so it takes away all his weapons on the feet (Body kick and left cross). I don't think he has a very servicable jab on the feet so I feel the only way he wins is if he either catches Dustin in a choke early or has 15 minutes worth of wrestling in his back pocket. I think both are unlikely because Benoit front loads his cardio early and Dustin is quite capable with his defensive BJJ. Dustin has prepared for southpaws before (Conor x 3). His approach is to chew up the lead leg with the leg kick, work the jab and counter strike when the opponent enters the pocket. I do think Dustin's durability is starting to slip which is a bit of a worry but this is a pretty confident pick for me. The fight actually gives me similar vibes to Gaetje v Fiziev where everyone was willing to write off Gaetje and we got treated to the veteren lesson.

Holland vs. Page
Kevin Holland, DEC
Kickboxing fight, could be razor close and I might not have the best read on MVP but I think I want to fade him in the UFC. He's quite old and I question the competition he fought on the Bellator scene. I think Holland is the more durable fighter and will throw combinations where MVP tends to throw singular shots. Scary prospect betting Holland because he tends to play with his food in the cage but I think he has this in the bag.

Burns vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, DEC
When I first looked at this fight I was pretty confident Burns would have this comfortably, much due to the way Della looked against Hafeez in one of his older fights. I am not confident Burns can go out there and wrestle for 15 minutes and if he can't do that, he doesn't have much for Della on the feet apart from that overhand right. On the feet I don't think this is close. I question whether Della's power will translate against the top 15 fighters in this weight division but I really think he will have success and drain Burns cardio with the body punching he likes to utilise in the pocket. JDM decision, although he could be live for a late finish (Think Burns is Sub/1 or bust)

@Khutulun19 

nice take on Poirier vs BSD, the southpaw vs. southpaw thing is a great point 

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
Not much to say about this fight. RDA cutting back to 155 is worrying and Gamrot is pretty good. Gamrot does need to improve his control on the ground but his wrestling is arguably un-matched and will get takedowns whenever he wants. RDA has been in these fights before and been on the losing end so can't see it going any different. Picking a prop on this might be hard because I don't think Gamrot can submit RDA but Gamrot will probably need to finish if he's going to be spoken about as a title contender.

Despaigne vs. Parisian
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R1
Cuba seems to have found themselves a Heavyweight Yoel Romero, this guy is a genetic freak. I don't know if there's much technique behind what he does but when you have that reach-power-speed for heavyweight, who cares! Parisian is going to get badly slept here. I can see a fade angle in the future for Despaigne, as the only fight on the regional scene that got somewhat extended he was absolutely clueless on how to dig an underhook and work off the cage.

Vergara vs. Almabaev
CJ Vergara, DEC
Hot take, but I have this feeling that Asu might be a bit overhyped. He looked really good against Ode in his debut, but watching Ode in that fight he looked awful. Asu fights in the orthodox stance and will blast the leg kick. His TD entries look pretty slick but similar to the other Kazakh flyweight that got beaten by Charles Johnson, question whether he will want to wrestle for the full 15 minutes. My thoughts on CJ is he is the perfect gatekeeper for this division and you know what you're going to get from him (Boxing, sound defense, will check the leg kick and steady cardio) His left hand seems his dominant hand and will use it to either establish the jab or check hook counter. Also like his body work well, which bodes well for the course of 15 minutes. I think I'm going to back CJ by decision here and hope for the best.

Wood vs. Moroz
Joanne Wood, DEC
Retiree vs a Playboy Model, Couldn't have my money anywhere hear this fight until I hear interviews and fighter mindsets. Moroz has an easy path here if she wrestles but I have doubts whether she will. If she doesn't this will be 60/40 in the favour of Wood on the feet. I'll pick Wood but interviews/weigh-ins will play a part in whether I have a bet.

A kind reminder that Holland broke his hand in the very beginning of that fight with Wonderboy. 

@foppa420 

true. Idk man we'll see. I'm a huge Holland fan so hope he gets it done. MVP's style is just extremely awkward to deal with. Holland is a dawg though

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 5:55 PM ET *

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Marlon Vera, TKO, R4
you see the profile picture and i’m gonna be quite blunt i don’t see chito winning but ill breakdown his path to victory: he’s not finishable. seans cardio and chin have never been tested and the only time either have it was his cardio in the yan fight and he started to wilt in the third a tad. i think sean is going to go for the finish to both avenge the loss (fluke leg kick to the nerve) and try to boost his star power more but i think that’ll most likely be his downfall if he were to lose. if he does go for the finish i believe he will gas around  the fourth and his unproven chin will be taking direct blows from the guy who is known to lose 2/3 rounds while getting reads and then finding a knockout blow.

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, SUB, R3
this is the hardest fight i’ve picked so far this year. this is a gigantic leap in competition for BSD (and i love the UFC pushing some of these prospects very far very fast) and i can see dustin getting the stereotypical crafty vet win but i believe BSD is on the right side of history. his grappling is very underrated and while his defense is on the level of a amateur i think his camp will tell him to grapple and be smart on the road to a title shot.

Holland vs. Page
Kevin Holland, DEC
we’re all fans of big mouth i don’t need to do a essay on why i love him. page was signed too late and he never does combos which will be his downfall against someone as crafty and creative as holland. god i wish holland actually took the game seriously

Burns vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R3
has been said by many but JDM is burns’s nightmare matchup. burns cannot deal with a firm jab and it has been shown throughout his career and JDMs jab is absolutely money. JDMs fight IQ in the past has been very very lacking but as long as he doesn’t pull guilly again i see a very clear path to the win and title contention.

Yan vs. Song
Yadong Song, DEC
song improves every single fight and every single day and it’s absolutely abnormal. he’s phenomenal everywhere like yan is but i believe his size and power will overwhelm yan as he goes to a close 29-28 decision. potential FOTN?

Blaydes vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R2
blaydes has every tool in the box to be the champ but i swear to god he listens to what his corner has to say and does the direct opposite. very good test for almeida and great matchmaking but he should just be able to wrap up a sub pretty easily unless blaydes actually locks in for once

Cerminara vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
barbers in a very good groove at the moment and i’ve never been impressed by cerminara

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
i have no idea why the UFC made this fight or why RDA took it but RDA has openly expressed not liking the cut to 155 and he is 39 years old. gamrot has had a very interesting run to say the least but he should coast to a very easy decision

Munhoz vs. Phillips
Kyler Phillips, DEC
one of the worst possible matchups for pedro as his child- like arms should allow kyler to just pick him apart from range

Pereira vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, DEC
pereiras super fun but his cardio and extreme style are a nightmare combination. maybe he just fights like a kickboxer out of nowhere and wins? who knows

Lins vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba, DEC
it’s a ion cutelaba fight you never really know but he should be able to just outgrapple lins

Despaigne vs. Parisian
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R1
one of the craziest athletes the UFC has ever seen fights a can. really can’t wait to see what happens once he fights someone with some skill but it’s HW so he shouldn’t have to worry about that for awhile

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 5:54 PM ET *

Why is it worrying for RDA to cut back down to 155? He has gone up and down before. Also I don’t think Gamrot is a fighter known for his power. 

RDA knows what he is doing. There is a reason he has been around longer than most. 

It's actually a good matchup for MVP stylistically, he doesn't have to deal with grappling and he can probably get to Holland's ego by taunting him. Holland also isn't a relentless pressure fighter but might very well decide to go tit for tat with MVP at range which is obviously MVP's style. It's also in a big octagon which is good for MVP.
I think MVP could have a speed advantage also despite his age even though Holland is not slow.

That's where it ends though, the level of competition and activity is far different. Holland has been fighting elite fighters and he's done 3-5 matches a year where MVP only had one MMA fight in 2022 and one in 2023 and has mostly faced cans throughout his career.
Holland is 31, MVP is less than a month from 37. Holland might also be the first time MVP ever faced someone where he didn't have a good reach advantage, at least I went back more than 5 years and couldn't find anyone. He's actually at a reach disadvantage here even if it's just 2 inches. Holland throws longer strike combinations than MVP who usually darts in with 1 or 2 punches before resetting.

I can see this being kinda close depending on how the match plays out. If Holland is smart he puts some pressure on MVP and prevent him from resetting and taking a rest and make him constantly backpedal to make him tired. But when was Holland ever a smart fighter?

Overall though I think this is a good spot on Holland as the odds are close to a pickem where I think Holland should be favored at a minimum 60/40 based on the factors I listed above and where they are at in their careers.

I think Chito and Guido had a combined iq of 17 when they fought

UFC's plans for MVP:
1. Win against Holland
2. Get a fight booked with Wonderboy
3. Win against Wonderboy
4. Title shot