UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

this fight is just a paycheck for Poirier, he doesn't even train anymore.  

Why was I free from work this weekend and have to work on the weekend of this card?

Dustin 3rd round tko 

This always happens when a guy gets a big jump in the rankings but i think it will be a war until that moment in the third. I think he will drop benoit with a hook then tko him on the ground. 

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Sean O'Malley, DEC
Sean can beat but not finish

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R2
New generation is faster and better

Holland vs. Page
Kevin Holland, TKO, R2
Venom can not beat this tough guy

Burns vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R1
Just I hate Burns and his grepling he has broken jaw

Yan vs. Song
Petr Yan, DEC
Yan can get into win way

Blaydes vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R2
Almeida is better in this grepling matchup

Cerminara vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, TKO, R2
Barber has better striking skills

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, TKO, R2
Young generation is always better and I do not like style of Dos Anjos

Munhoz vs. Phillips
Kyler Phillips, DEC
Munoz is just old guy with solid jaw

Pereira vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R1
Oleksiejczuk is just a monster

Lins vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba, TKO, R1
Cutaleba will do perfect ko

Despaigne vs. Parisian
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R1
3 sec ko what the **** is going on?

Vergara vs. Almabaev
Asu Almabaev, SUB, R1
Almabayev can do submission really fast

Wood vs. Moroz
Maryna Moroz, SUB, R1
Second time first round submission

Vergara vs. Almabaev
CJ Vergara, TKO, R1
Gotta go with that round 1 Vergara knockout after his last performance

shouldn't you be doing the opposite? he looked very timid and scared against a god awful opponent in vinicius

Pereira vs Olekseijczuk
Olekseijczuk KO RD 1

Not  sold on Michel in general. I wasn’t a huge fan of him at 170 and even though he is cutting less weight here, I still have my doubts. For one, he gives up his insane size advantage here; he’s still very big but now he’s fighting dudes who walk around at similar weights as him. We will have to see but I also don’t think moving up a weight class will fix cardio issues; that dynamic style requires a ton of energy. He looked good against petroski but not going to weigh that win too hard, it also doesn’t take away from how Michel was going to war with some pretty mid fighters at 170. And he was going to war with these guys while having a huge size and athleticism advantage, so now that he’s giving that up it makes me curious. For all the flash he possesses, I think Michel still has a lot of holes in his striking. His defense isn’t great, boxing overall is mediocre, and I feel like he prefers to throw kicks and flashy **** instead of combinations (his combos are nice when he uses them tho). Michal is much more limited and has no flash, but he is a killer. His whole strategy is to tank damage, walk forward, and knock you out. His boxing is really mean, he throws everything with bad intentions and his hands are quick. Michal is extremely durable as well, he can be cracked but he will just continue to walk forward and throw. I think at range he is going to have trouble with the varied attack of Michel but if Michal can get him to the fence I think he is going to find the chin. Michel is very reliant on head movement and when you get him up against the cage he will panic a little bit. Risky pick but I think the winstreak ends here

Lins vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba, TKO, R1
I feel like ion should pretty easily take this fight but like every ion fight, it’s a coinflip. He has the skills to just steamroll lins so that means instead of using his wrestling, he’s gonna stand and brawl with him. I actually think he can crack lins but brawling gives Lins his only path to victory. Ion not chinny but he gets very reckless when throwing and does leave his chin out there. Lins isn’t some amazing striker to me but he is pretty big and throws these powerful shots right down the middle. Lins can also get reckless and definitely has a worse chin, but he can catch ion if they just go out and brawl. Ion loves to wrestle and if he does that here, I think he will destroy Lins. Ion is one of the best wrestlers in the divison; he has been able to ragdoll pretty much everyone he’s fought and he is mean af on the ground. Lins is big and an okay wrestler, but I don’t think he can stop ion’s takedowns for longer than a few minutes. Lins isn’t 6”6 and he doesn’t have great bjj so ion shouldn’t get caught on a td attempt like he has in the past. Ion’s cardio is bipolar but it depends on the pace. Pace will probably be high so ion is prone to gassing but, lins cardio isn’t exactly the greatest either so they should cancel out. I think ion has the skills to make this look very easy, but we will have to see what gameplan he takes

Despaigne vs. Parisian
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R1
With despaigne I have no negatives, only questions. Despaigne is not your average 4-0 35 year old so the age /inexperience doesn’t bother me very much but I am curious to see what happens after round 1 or if he can defend takedowns. Now, he’s such an athletic freak we probably won’t find out until he fights a top 15, but we really have no footage of him being tested. Now, it’s going to be very hard for someone outside top 15 to actually test him since he is a freak of nature. He reminds me of young Ngannou a little, we still don’t know his full potential but it’s very clear he is a physical monster and that can close the skill gap instantly. I know he is fighting cans but that power is very legit; idc who you are fighting, it takes really insane power to stiffen people like that with 1 punch. Now, ufc is giving him a very easy layup, Parisian is good for nothing except taking an ass whooping. Hes been beaten just about every way by everyone he’s fought; even his two wins are questionable (robbery and was losing before his opponent quit). The Baudot fight was really telling to me because if Parisian is getting nearly finished by someone that bad, no way he eats a flush punch from despaigne. There’s a slight chance he gets fraud checked here but I really doubt it

Vergara vs. Almabaev
Asu Almabaev, SUB, R2
I actually think this is going to be way closer than the odds show. Assu is really talented but watching his tape again I think he still needs a lot of improvements. Luckily for him ufc is still slow rolling him, but I could definitely see him struggling with this more than he should. If this stays standing, I have to favor cj. Assu has an extremely powerful overhand right but not much else. He has improved his footwork and added feints which makes his striking better but it’s still not great imo. Cj has really good technique but he can’t fight technical at all if that makes sense; he does his best when he is biting down on the mouthpiece and throwing. I thought vergara looked very bad his last two fights; nearly dying to Lacerda is never a good look and then he struggled way more than I expected with Vinicius’s awkward striking. Again assu doesn’t offer much but his feints might throw off cj. CJ is not a great wrestler but his grappling is much better than I thought. He can’t stop takedowns all that well but if you get him to the mat he has shown pretty good defense and been able to reverse a lot of people. I definitely think he can reverse assu a few times but, I expect assu to eventually get the back and sub him. Could definitely see this going the distance or even cj pulling off the upset. I really like assu but I think the odds are a little high here

Wood vs. Moroz
Joanne Wood, DEC
Probably a bad idea since wood said she’s retiring but I kind of like her in this matchup. I know she lost to moroz but this fight is definitely not going the same way; they stood for like a minute then moroz randomly pulled guard and subbed her. Wood’s bjj is still hilariously bad but I don’t think moroz will grapple that much. Her ground game is solid but her actual wrestling is not very good & she is inconsistent with when she uses it. On the feet I don’t think either are very good but wood always keeps a high pace and attacks the legs/body where moroz is mostly a boxer. Moroz hates getting hit but wood doesn’t have enough power to rock her. Maybe wood just looks terrible and moroz runs through her but I think the ufc is trying to send wood out on a win

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 9:01 AM ET *

O'Malley vs Vera
O'malley DEC

I like the beef these two have but not sure this is going to be crazy exciting. Chito’s style of losing rounds just to find a ko blow bites him in the ass frequently. It’s really cool to watch when he does it, but it is a terrible style for winning fights; especially when your opponents are youg and not fragile. People still like to hate on Sean but I think he has more than backed up his talk; you don’t have to like him but he is clearly a special fighter. The first fight was hard to gauge between these two; it didn’t last very long and Sean injured himself almost immediately. I know he had issues with his legs when he first got to the ufc, but Sean has put on a lot more muscle since then. I think chito can def give him issues with the leg kicks, but Sean is going to be more prepared this time. In terms of the boxing I think it’s all Sean. His hands are very good and he is a master of drawing people out and countering. Maybe this turns into a war (I definitely wouldn’t be complaining) but I think this is going to be a pretty boring decision that Sean takes comfortably


Poirier vs Saint-Denis
Poirier KO RD 3

This line makes no sense to me. BSD looks like a killer but I don’t know how 5 wins over unranked guys justifies being the favorite over someone who’s been top 5-10 for a decade. I guess there’s a chance poirier is finally washed but it’s not like that loss to gaethje was the first time he’s been slept. Not a great loss at 34 but could’ve been worse for sure. Even then, I don’t think BSD is some crazy ko threat people are making him out to be. That headkick was nice but I doubt we really see poirier lose twice in a row to head kicks. Besides that, bsd isn’t a power puncher he is a guy who breaks you down with volume and pressure; and no chance that’s how he finishes Dustin. I mean we did see chandler have him on the ropes with pressure but I don’t imagine BSD can continuously do that for 25 min without needed to step off the gas once. I think something really important that a lot of people are missing is BSD’s defense. Yes, he looks cool walking people down and killing yjem but he has no defense at all; like I mean absolutely none. BSD is a zombie and will just eat punches & March forward but he is human. Poirier is by far the best striker he’s faced, and seeing how some people have hit bsd so hard his head snaps back, I don’t think he can trad with poirier the same way he has everyone else. I’m not a huge poirier fan but I truely believe he can ko BSD standing. Now, BSD has a legit path to victory if he wrestlers we know that’s poirier’s weakness and he has lost there before a few times. I think bsd can get him down but honestly not so sure he can hold him there. I like his grappling a lot but almost everyone bsd has fought has been easily able to reverse him or get up; I mean bonfim easily reversed being fully mounted and Frevola was taking him down with ease. He can get poirier down but I’m pretty sure poirier can be able to get back up. The biggest edge for poirier (that I haven’t seen anyone mention) is his training partner for this camp. Poirier and gamrot have sparred together this entire camp; gamrot isnt BSD but he can emulate that hard grappling style and he definitely can match the pace BSD sets. I think this couldn’t be a better sparring partner for fighting BSD because poirier is going to know what to expect in terms of pace and scrambling. I think BSD is good and I’ve definitely counted him out a lot, but I think this is way too big a step up.


Holland vs Page
Holland DEC

I didn’t watch tape on this one mostly because watching tape is useless for holland fights; he goes into each fight with no gameplan and just does what he wants. I maintain that holland could be a contender if he took mma seriously but we all know he’s here for a good time. I doubt he wrestles here so we should get a pretty fun striking match. I think mvp is more technically sound but he usually throws only 1 shot at a time and also looks for finishes; probably won’t be easy here since holland is very tough. I think holland had the skills to beat him standing. But it just all depends on how serious he wants to take this fight. I’ll probably watch some more tape during fight week but I wasn’t all too interested in watching fights for this on e

Burns vs Maddalena
Maddalena KO RD 1

Now this one I really don’t understand the odds, I think this is a nightmare matchup for burns. Disregarding the fact that he’s 37 and took a lot of damage in the belal fight, burns has always struggled against more technically sound strikers. His hands are very good for a bjj guy and he can push an insane pace, but burns can’t fight a technical fight at all. For starters, a jab is basically his achillies heel; burns has been dropped multiple times from many different people by jabs. Not only that, but most of burns wins that took place on the feet, he has to win by turning it into an ugly brawl. Even if he does that, I still think JDM smokes him. The reason being JDM has no issues brawling, but he maintains that high level boxing even in a slugfest. This is going to screw burns over because JDM is going to give him the fight he wants, but he is going to be a step ahead on the striking. JDM’s boxing really is a site to behold; he is incredible. I don’t see burns chin holding up very long if he comes out striking with JDM. Now the obvious path to victory is grappling, but I don’t think we see much of it. Burns’s bjj is very overrated by mma standards. Hes elite outside of mma but just average in the cage. For one, he doesn’t grapple much at all but even when he does, it’s usually just lay n pray. I think JDM’s tdd is way better than people think, ik the hafez fight was a bad look but JDM still has an insanely high tdd. Even if burns does shoot, it’s not like he’s some amazing wrestler so I think he won’t have much success. Even if he does get JDM down, who knows if he even attacks a sub. Not a good look by Jack getting caught in subs the way he has, but he has also managed to escape everything perfectly so I assume he will be fine. Overall, I think jack makes this look extremely easy and then people will be back on the hype train

Yan vs Yadong
Yadong DEC

I watched both these guys fights and am still just as confused as when this first got announced. Yan looks so good when I watch him so it’s hard to make a reason why he can’t win. Hes so well rounded and is a killer on the feet but he just can’t seem to find wins. Merab fight was a bad matchup but he just barely fell short against aljo and Sean. I think the two biggest reasons are his slow starts and size. I know he’s technically never lost a round 1 (I think) but Yan starts every fight super slow so that he can make his reads, which in turn has given him a lot of close fights. Yan is also on the smaller side of bw so he has faced issues against the bigger guys. Yadong is improving at a massive rate and is just a tank. His tdd has improved an insane amount and his striking has always been very good. I don’t like his defense at times but he has a Giga chin; I worry he might try to tank Petrs shots and walk him down. He can land on petr but by giving him a target he will fall behind on the scorecards. I feel like whoever I pick is going to end up losing, I’m going with song because he’s younger and improving every fight but at the same time this seems like a fight he loses. Toughest fight on the card for me

Blaydes vs Almeida
Almeida KO RD 2

Despite the stinker he dropped last fight, my opinion on this matchup hasn’t changed at all. I get that blaydes has some of the best wrestling in the division but that doesn’t make it impossible to take him down. Few have done it, but that’s also because few can actually wrestle at 265. Now, I know jailton has pretty much only shown the push kick/blast double but he has so much more than just that. Watch his dwcs fight to see what I mean; I know it was at 205 against someone mid but jailton showed us what happens when he faces resistence and is forced to use other wrestling moves. He did get taken down but I loved what I saw; he didn’t panic at all and took his time until he found an opening and reversed it. He also showed a multititude of different trips to get the fight down. The blast double may honestly work here, but even if it doesn’t I think he can easily find a trip or something on blaydes. Blaydes obviously has the advantage standing but I don’t think this will be on the feet for long. The biggest thing here for me is the athleticism. Blaydes is a good athlete for 265 but compared to jailton he is so slow. Jailton has that fast-twitch muscle that we see in elite athletes; he just moves fast with everything he does. Blaydes on the other hand is so much slower and you can see that in his takedown attempts. They work because most hw can’t wrestle at all but he is a lot slower out there than jailton, and I think that’s going to be important here because he can see the shot coming but may not be fast enough to beat jailton to the position. I think the other key thing to keep in mind here is blaydes fight iq. Blaydes has made some very bad decisions in mma and now he’s facing his first grappler in the yfc. Maybe he is able to take jailton down but I have a feeling jailton will try a sweep or something tricky and get it, since blaydes doesn’t have much bjj and isn’t used to fighting grapplers. Either way, I think people are letting jailtons last fight cloud their memory, he is a very good fighter and I think he has the skills to finish blaydes here

Chookagian vs Barber
Barber DEC

Not sure where to go with this one. Barber been in good form recently but she is so inconsistent. Chookagian is the exact opposite, being nothing but consistent. She is a terribly boring point fighter but her style works. She just picks you apart on the feet with jabs and teeps, she has no real finishing ability but is just annoying and won’t get out of your face. Shes won a lot of fights she probably shouldn’t have due to this style, but not sure it will work here. Barber fights like a bully, she is physically stronger than everyone she fights and she looks for the kill every fight. I think Chook is a much cleaner striker but everything barber lands is going to have a big impact. If they clinch at all, I think barber is going to find a lot of success as she loves to dirty box and throw elbows. We all know barber is clueless off of her back but I doubt chook will grapple much. My gut is telling me chook wins a classic, boring decision but I have a feeling this is barbers time to shine. Might switch to chook but I do want to see weigh ins as she missed last time and was teasing a move to bw, so the cut might be getting tough for her


Gamrot vs dos Anjos
Gamrot KO RD 3

This matchup still makes 0 sense to me. Rda said he was done at 155 but now not only is he back, he’s taking his hardest matchup against someone who isn’t even a big draw; something must’ve gone on behind the scenes. RDA is a legend but he is aging. At 155, he fights much better but idk how he will react to the weight cut atp. His wrestling is much better at this class but I doubt he’s going to be able to do much against the cardio machine that is gamrot. Gamrot has a very unique style that is incredibly difficult to prepare for; you need insane cardio but also need insane defense because gamrot can chain wrestle you for 25 minutes and not even break a sweat. I know it’s mostly happened at 170, but rda has lost to every pressure wrestler he’s fought. Now, he’s going down a weight class at 40 and fighting one of the best grapplers in the division. RDA will probably show some resistence early but I think the pace of gamrot is going to break him as the fight goes on. Not saying he will quit or even get tired, but eventually he is going to concede position; you can’t defend takedowns for 15 min straight. RDA always been very durable but I feel as if gamrot can find something. Probably not a submission but I can see him getting rda in a crucifix or back control and just pounding him out with gnp. Regardless of how he wins, I think this is a layup for gamrot

Munhoz vs Phillips
Phillips DEC

This could get ugly round 3 but Kyler is one of my most confident picks on the card; I think he has the perfect style to beat munhoz. Munhoz is a great vet but he is very limited by his fighting style and size. Munhoz is the size of a flyweight and has t-Rex arms. As a result, he is forced to take a lot of damage to get strikes of his own off. Munhoz is one of the best leg kickers in the division and he uses these kicks to slow his opponents movmement down, and then start brawling with them. Munhoz has really good power and is a good striker but his size has lost him a lot of fights. Kyler is a bad matchup because not only is he bigger and knows how to check kicks, but he has very good footwork and is super dynamic. That means on the outside he is going to pick munhoz apart with his kicks and in the early rounds not let munhoz get near him. Kyler throws kicks everywhere and I think they are going to give munhoz a lot of issues. Kyler also has shown he knows how to box pretty well. I don’t imagine he wants to trade with Pedro but he is 100% capable of doing so. Kyler will also mix in takedowns with his striking; there’s not telegraph on them and he uses all of his power to get you down. He has to watch out for the guillotine but I think he can mix in the wrestling to slow the pace down if he is tired. Originally, Kyler’s cardio worried me here but after watching more of his fights I think he will be fine; Kyler does slow down round 3 but he never death gasses (paiva fight was a one off) and he’s actually won a few round 3s in the ufc. Even if he does get tired, he still keeps his footwork and has shown an incredible chin so I doubt munhoz finishes him. Round 3 may get ugly but I think Kyler is going to win 1-2 very easily. Early on, he is just so much faster and dynamic than Pedro that I think it will give him a lot of issues

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 9:05 AM ET *

Yeah I don't get the hype for BSD over Poirier here either. BSD is absolutely something special, but he sure as **** won't beat Dustin gunning for a finish in the first round. Poirier thrives in those fights, minus Oliveira. BSD hasn't shown to be championship calibre yet tho so I think we're good.

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Sean O'Malley, DEC
Vera has a problem in his game. It's his slow start. O'Malley will absolutely exploit this and get 2 relatively free rounds at the start already and he's going to continue to use that reach to take rounds from him the whole match, executing a safe game plan, I don't think we'll see a knockout here on either side. Suga 49-46.

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R2
I love BSD been a huge fan of him for some time now and I really believe he pulls it off. He's a brawler same as DP but it's a big question how will Poirier perform after such a KO loss, Before getting KO'd by Gaethje, last time he got slept was when he fought MJ back in 2016 and well, It took him 8 years to get KO'd like that again, diffrence is Dustin is getting there in age, he's 35 now. I doubt he's gonna bounce back and that he'll last against a young & dangerous uppercommer like BSD. I'm well aware competition jump for BSD is huge, I think he'll pass the test. However if let's say he fails to finish in the first 2 rounds, DP will overttake, so there's always that possibility.

Burns vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R2
JDM is very underappreciated after the Hafez fight. This is not a bad matchup for him. Unless it would be someone very long or wrestle-heavy guy. Gilbert has been dropped by that straight jab. Look back at Usman fight & 1st round against Chimaev. I have a feeling the story might repeat itself here. JDM has a lot of power and it's has been a little forgotten those last 2 decisions.

Blaydes vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R2
Honestly can't wait. I'm still picking Almeida. But this is the fight where we find out how good Jailton really is.

* Edited at 03.03.2024, 10:13 AM ET *

So how many times do you guys think Rogan will bring up how chito beat omalley because of the calf kick when in reality it's because chito kicked the nerve behind omalleys knee that causes drop foot. I still don't think the commentators understand the low calf kick does not cause drop foot 

Poirier vs. Saint-Denis
Dustin Poirier, DEC
I see it playing the same way as gaethje vs fiziev

Holland vs. Page
Michael Page, DEC
This fight is crazy hard to predict

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
They made Gamrot sit out for to long for this

DP have chance in 5 rounds
in 3 rounds he doesn't have a chance against BSD
you agree?

O'Malley vs. Vera II
Marlon Vera, TKO, R5
Marlon "Chito

I’m not sure, I think it would definitely be a close fight with three rounds but to say he doesn’t have a chance is a bit of a stretch. DP is still the best striker BSD has fought. BSD is insanely tough but he takes big shots every fight: Zaleski beatdown, flying knee against stolze, even Miranda and Moises landed some good shots on him. He is definitely going to be able to land on DP, we saw against Chandler he was struggling when Chandler went ape mode. However, BSD doesn’t have the same level of power that Chandler has so I don’t think he’s going to be as hesitant to exchange in the pocket. Even in that Chandler fight he still managed to drop him after the blitz; judging how guys like Moises and Miranda have been able to land on him during brawls I think he is going to struggle, poirier has very good power and is the best striker Benoit has fought in his entire career. Definitely not counting him out because he is a zombie and also towers over most people in the division, but I think this is a very challenging fight for him

@AyyLmaonnaise 

i think BSD can easly take 2 round in wrestling and grappling
remember 2 round against Chandler 
DP just lay and waited end of the round
i think now BSD more better wrestler than old Chandler with bad cardio
and very more better grappler than Chandler

Lins vs. Cutelaba
Philipe Lins, TKO, R2
Given Lins' advantages, especially in power and durability, his most likely path to victory would be through a TKO/KO. His confidence could allow him to press the action from the start, looking to land significant strikes. Lins' defensive wrestling and submission defense capabilities suggest that he would be able to thwart Cutelaba's takedown attempts, keeping the fight standing where his striking power could be most effective. Lins' victory is more likely to occur in the early to mid-fight, Rounds 1 or 2. Given his power, a finish could come after he's had a chance to land several significant strikes, wearing Cutelaba down or catching him with a fight-ending shot.

What a **** tattoo, no wonder he covered it 😂

@AyyLmaonnaise 

you make some very solids points bro but j thini the main difference between chandler and BSD is that BSD has better cardio than chandler and even better jiu jitsu on the ground i mean bro has 9 submission wins in thd first and second rounds and we all know that dustins kryptonite also benoit is much more gritier and violent than chandler he also really has a very decent fight iq and a good gameplan for every opponent like the way he planned to destroy bonfim arms with body kicks to take the pop of his shots afterwards took him down and submitted him, that exactly how i see this fight playing out BSD by rnc in round 2 chandler is a good wrestler but with minimal finishing ability BSD on the other hand is a monster on the ground and on the feet he does have decent stand up besides leaving his chin exposed but hes got a solid chin cause even juiced up Zeliski wasnt able to put him out on short notice 😂

10'Malley Vs Vera

Marlon Vera Via KO R3