UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Good thing I never made a wrong pick.

Nah if Daukaus can’t stop takedowns he will get stopped around rounds 3-4 every time he loses he gets stopped same with blades he will get knock out if he loses 

Damn how will I ever recover 

Yeah your going to eventually run into a card like this and that pick percentage that you hold so dear is going to go down the drain lol

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/78698-ufc-fight-night

Welcome to the club.... enjoy that confidence while you can

Nicolau as an underdog is a gift, so was Manon -350 before it skyrocketed up. Value betting is fun.

Daukaus  |  KO/TKO  |  Round 2		0
Grasso  |  Decision		0
Barberena  |  KO/TKO  |  Round 3		0
Askarov  |  Decision		0
Latifi  |  KO/TKO  |  Round 2		0
Diakiese  |  Decision		0
Magny  |  Decision		0
Rosa  |  Decision		0
Danaa  |  KO/TKO  |  Round 2		0
Tiuliulin  |  KO/TKO  |  Round 1		0
Fiorot  |  KO/TKO  |  Round 2		0
Dvořák  |  Decision		0
Souza  |  Decision

I think Manon Fiorot will win because Maia most takedown she get in her fights is one and Fiorot is a better kickboxer, but no way I like -450 on women MMA, I don’t like women MMA for parley because it so volatile becuase it low level,, it funny people don’t learn and alway complain about women ruining they parley

Stocks are as much of a gamble as informed betting

https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-fight-night-blaydes-vs-daukaus-betting-guide

I've been preaching this for over a year now.  I'm glad people are finally catching on to not betting WMMA.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus
-blaydes by ground n p
-the fight will start and the two exchange, each land their shot. then a takedown come. Daukaus get push back up the cage, clinked the got takedown unable to stop it and get ground n pound. same thing happen all over again(or is it?). daukaus is a smart fighter so he will adjust but not enough. 

Joanne Wood vs. Alexa Grasso
-Alexa Grasso finished Wood rd 2-3
-Alexa is better at everything, at her prime, they gonna trade untill alexa hurt wood, the they clinch then alexa got the take down. from there, it is ground and pound or submission. i think it is a sub

Askar Askarov vs. Kai Kara-France
-Askar Askarov submit Kai rd1
-askar gonna be a bit out strike but still in good condition. the fight the got taken to the ground and end with a rear naked choke

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Denis Tiuliulin
-Aliaskhab Khizriev by submission
-Alias will exchange wildly for a bit before take denis on the ground. denis wouldnt be able to do any thing about it and get choke the **** out

Jennifer Maia vs. Manon Fiorot
-Manon by UD
-Manon with her technical striking will be too much for maia to handle, and she will get kick everytime she wanna close the distant. we may see some clinch work by maia. manon some where in the round will try to take her down and success. the only thing that will keep maia to survive is her toughness,her clinch and her high guard in striking

Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin
-Neil Magny by UD 
-Magny is the more technical fighter ,with longer reach and kick to keep the distance. brawler like max is not goona touch him. the only chance for max griffin to win here is by wrestling. Magny takedown defense is soo weak

Matt Brown vs. Bryan Barberena
-Matt Brown to win
-Matt Brown is a very technical fighter and gonna stay barely on the outside and throw single shot and advoid trading. he may use some wrestling too.

Aleksei Oleinik vs. Ilir Latifi
-Ilir Latifi tko alek by grond n pound rd2
- too good of a grappler for alek to handle. as the round go on ilir will gain the upper hand as he continue to drain alek enery, until he gone. alek is too old now. he stand no chance.


Marc Diakiese vs. Viacheslav Borshchev 
Viacheslav Borshchev by ko/tko rd2
Borsh gonna analyze Marc in the first 1-2 min, then when he feel comfortable, he gonna come in and trade.Marc is very tough but not very smart compare to borsh. he gonna get out strike till ko. he is weak at wrestling too so dont hope he gonna shot for the leg

too lazy too analyze more, just follow my pick. Just started doing this for a month so not a veteran or anything. **** Mike grundy for ruining my parlay last week btw.

Diakese vs Slava Claus is me fading Diakese, who isn't with American Top Team anymore and focuses on his own gym (showed against Alves).  I think this is more of a toss up fight and Slava could get exposed but I'm banking on him dancing one more time before his schtick is up.

Saldana vs Souza is more of a hope that Saldana wins the first two rounds and survives round three. I can see him gassing and losing that one.

Dvorak vs Nicolau is me taking a dog that I think isn't the dog here.  This should be a pick 'em.  Dvorak has beaten who?  He may go out and starch Nicolau but... until I see it.

Wood vs Grasso is me thinking this is a changing of the guard.  Although, Grasso is going to have to deal with volume and look good in spots with her striking.  She can't allow Wood to just point away or she will lose a close decision.

Khizriev vs Tiuliulin is going to be one way traffic.  Denis did this for the contract.  He is on short notice and knows he has no shot here.

Askarov vs Kara-France is not going to go well for Kai Kara-France unless he can get Askar out early on a punch.  He doesn't do well with wrestlers/grapplers.

Magny vs Griffin is proof that styles make fights and this one doesn't set up well for Griifin.  I think Magny has him beat everywhere and cruise to decision.  Griffin is going to have to find the knockout to have a chance, imo.

Oleinik vs Latifi is an AARP fight.  Someone needs to get a retirement pension for these two.  Oleinik is not going to submit Latifi and Latifi is the better wrestler.  Either Latifi scores a KO or he lays and prays to a booing crowd decision that bores the world.  Both will take a long nap after the fight and you will want to, as well.  Latifi has more paths to victory and that is why he is my pick.

McMann vs Rosa is me not betting on a 41 year old who has seen her best days go by.  Rosa is strong as hell.  Her TDD is extremely good.  McMann might get Rosa down and steal a round but I think Rosa is going to be too much for her.  I think she puts out McMann late after she gasses out, as she is prone to do.

Brown vs Barberena is a fight that would have been great 4 or 5 years ago.  I just think Barberena is worn out.  Brown is at home and I am banking on the old man to pull one more rabbit out of his hat and get the KO.  This could go either way but man... Barberena has looked so bad recently.

Batgerel Danaa vs Chris Gutierrez is a tough pick.  I'm taking a flyer on the underdog.  The cage is not going to be as small as the Apex in Columbus and I think Batgerel has looked great against lesser men.  Gutierrez is faster and attacks the legs viciously.  I'm not sure Batgerel is going to be able to just attack Gutierrez's face, as he protects himself well.  He does close distance well but Gutierrez is savvy.  It's a toss up that can definitely go either way, so I'm going with the experience and the dog.

Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot is pretty cut and dry.  I think Maia will look better than the odds have her.  She is tough as nails and won't get knocked out but I think Fiorot cruises to a unanimous decision, which is what I will be betting at -105 on my book.

Blaydes vs Daukaus is an interesting fight but Blaydes has the best path to victory.  If I have to choose between the best heavyweight wrestler in the UFC vs a great striker, I'm going with the wrestler 9/10 times.


Good luck everyone.  I hope I get 10 of these right after going 50% last week lol.

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 12:42 PM ET *

I hate that people s&*t on WMMA. They are professional athletes who will beat the balls out of most dudes. Also I've had decent betting success on WMMA because those fights tend to fly under the radar and don't get the attention they deserve.  Marina Rodrigez,Thug Rose, Casey O'Neil, made me decent money in 2021. It's a smaller fighter pool that I actually find easier to cap.

I think not betting WMMA is the wrong take. Not betting big WMMA big favorites is more to the point. Then again I very seldomly bet big favorites in the men's divisions either.

Also a reminder that I'm running my simulated "bet every WMMA dog" book. We're only 2 weeks in but so far you'd have made 1.5 u betting 4 u (only been 4 fights since I began). That's a 37.5% ROI. Let's see how it changes over the rest of the year.

Absolutely when it comes to individual stocks, but not if you buy global index funds. (95% probability to increase in value over 10+ years, 99% over 25+). There's still a risk there but I wouldn't call those a gamble when the margins of failure is that low. Even if you hit the 5% or 1% it also doesn't mean you lost all the money you put in, just that the balance sits at a lower point.

At least it's less risk than having all your money on a savings account with an interest which doesn't even compensate for inflation and is actually worth less and less over time.

You read what you want to read there.  No one is ****ting on WMMA.  All of us love watching it and cheering it on.  It's the betting side that I want to avoid.  That isn't a knock on WMMA.  It's an oddsmaker ordeal. If people can find angles and make profit, I'm all for it.  JJ Aldrich for me was one angle where I looked at the odds and immediately saw a dog that should have been the favorite.  That worked out well for me.  But the favorites get chalked to a degree where it makes it hard to bet.  That is all I was saying.  Don't think that anyone here thinks WMMA is a bad product.  WMMA has had some great contests this year.

Also, I'm glad you mentioned Marina Rodriguez.  While I'm glad you won your bet, she ended up as a -310 when the books closed.  That looked very much like a pick 'em fight to me.  That is where I don't like the oddsmakers in the WMMA.  The guys are getting out of hand, as well.  It's just that I find a lot of volatility in WMMA.  Last week, anyone that took Elise Reed was very fortunate because Cory McKenna came out with an awful, awful game plan (thanks Danny Castillo).  McKenna was everyone's darling, had all of the opportunity to make it a grappling match when she wanted but didn't, and honestly should have lost a unanimous decision.  There are less fights and less of a pool to choose from.  Yet, there is more volatility.  Good luck and I hope you continue to find edges where you can.

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 11:06 AM ET *

Got you, didn't mean to come off harsh. I try to use as least words as possible and have a more fun, less serious take on things.  For me it's harder to keep up with the constant influx of "prospects" in the men's ranks. I had Marina over Ribas at something like +375 and keep her rolling over Dern, than over Yan although you're right that line was super disrespectful to Yan. Poppins f$%^&d us all last week.