UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Fiorot at +105 to -115 to win by decision is the most confident way I can think to bet that fight without having to chalk it up.

Maia's biggest advantage is durability.  She can take a thousand shots to the head. I'm not even convinced she will out-grapple/wrestle with Fiorot.  I think it is closer to a wash on the ground.  The striking is just a massive disparity.

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 1:40 PM ET *

yea, valentina couldnt finish her. so decision is most likely

EXACTLY... And that is why I hate betting Women's MMA.  Manon Fiorot is more than likely going to clearly win this fight.  But I currently have to deal with a -500 price tag on a Wednesday, which means this ****** is going to hit -650 or more.  In the Khizriev fight, I know he and Tiuliulin 9/10 times will end in a smesh finish, minimum.  So, I don't care about his current price tag because he isn't going to leave it to the judges.  *******, Maia has a head made of granite and if Fiorot and Maia fight ten times, it probably goes to decision 8 or 9 out of ten times.  That is a massive problem for me.  If a fighter winning by decision is the highest probability, I don't care if it is Askarov who always wins by decision.  I don't want to be laying -500 on that.  Who wants to wage -500 on OHIO judges that don't do a bunch of UFC fights?  **** that ****. 

the + money on souza was nice while it lasted, anyone else think he will outpoint saldana with semi ease ?

I think his weird karate style will make it hard for Saldana to find entries. One problem is both guys prefer to fight at distance so this is likely gonna look like a point fight. I also don’t like this because the easiest way to beat Saldana is to pressure him so he can’t strike with you. I favor Souza because his cardio is pretty good where Saldana gasses. I also don’t rate Saldana at all; I think he’s pretty bad. Souza is green but is decently skilled 

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 1:58 PM ET *

Yall see the video of her lone KO loss 10 years ago. its some backyard mom fight looking ****. Skip to 53 seconds

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 2:04 PM ET *

Valentina isn't really a finishing machine though because she's very defensively minded and doesn't have the largest output. Similarly on the ground she'd rather control than go for the sub. She's got an inflated reputation as a killer in that way. I remember getting +300 on her to win UD vs Maia. The bookies I have access to have since patched that hole, you used to get crazy odds on UD main events all the time now they offer laughable odds on those.
Fiorot averages over 7 strikes per minute so far so I'd say she has a greater chance to finish Maia than Shevchenko did even though I would agree Maia seems to have a hard head.
Fiorot UD is of course the most likely outcome out of all the possible outcomes.

About Saldaña I'm in the other boat, waiting for odds to reach their peak on him since people are betting Souza. I don't see what is so impressive about Souza, Saldaña is the better striker in my opinion and has twice the experience in MMA without being past his prime. The main risk on Saldaña is his gas tank which looked poor in his 2 latest fights.

saldana is 0-2 in the ufc griffin was robbed by byrd cleary and kamijo but was the clear winner, the murdock victory on the contender has not aged well, souze on the other hand is lyota machidas protege, hes been training him since he was a child, he's still the current lfa featherweight champ, he stood with melsik for 3 rounds. won the last. maybe im biased because i was on the griffin side in that robbery but im not impressed with saldana

saldana struggles with pressure(austin lingo) and wrestling(jordan griffin). souza does neither of those, should be a close fight though

PRP parlay. Starting with two most confident spots, then whatever that wins, spread out among subsequent added legs in order of betting odds and confidence in winning. As long as the top one hits, i will break even. If i'm looking at over $100 profit at the end of the night counting on Blaydes to win, its nothing to hedge $25-30 on Daukaus ML or even ITD to gaurantee break even.


Anchor: Blades (-350) + Fiorot (-400) - $100 to win $60.71 allotment
 
Blades: Ok so first of all there is, in my opinion, 4 levels to a Knock Out. The 1st, is a power punch that just instantly shuts out your lights, 2nd is a shot or combination of shots that has you close to out and then maybe follow ups put you out or close to it enough to stop it, 3rd is where you are hurt and they unload on you and you don't really fight back enough and the ref stops it but you are still pretty much there mentally. 4th is just a mercy stoppage when you're really fine but they have your back and are just rabbit punching your face with you tired and not defending. Every time blaydes got KOed it was the 1st both time against the pretty unanimous 2 most power 2 in the division. When Daukaus is getting his finishes it's either 2 or usually 3....and it's mostly against not the best UFC competition. Blades has taken that from much higher regarded guys like bigi or volkov and be able to survive to get his wrestling going. So that was a really long way of me explaining how I think him getting KOed is not as live as people think. Daukaus looks like starting to tire against shamil in the 2nd round. Way more than blades usually does. And duakaus was fighting a moderate but kinda slow pace first round before his success. Blades is usually wrestling which is way more tiring. On top of that, I think his stand up is ......probably a little worse than daukaus but close. It's not just straight like oh he's gotta grapple or he loses he can win at times on the feet. Also daykaus not long since bad DL ko so if blades lands something clean...Daukaus has BjJ game but he's lost in those aspects on the regional scene against guys that nobody knows blades training MMA top level MMA knows a good BJJ defense. Nobody ever really close to getting him in something.
 
Fiorot: Her ground game is under rated it looks good on her regional stuff. Went down plenty against another "what if it goes to the ground" threat in Silva. Her one loss her first pro fight was to probably the best or top 3 female bjj player in Bellator, UP 2 WEIGHT CLASSES. and she basically nullified McCourt from doing much of anything when she was on bottom and probably won the fight tbh. I start with that because that's the only narrative I hear for why Maia is a threat. First of all she almost never tries to bring it to the ground she just plots forward and strikes. He strikes aren't bad, look like some decent pop for the division, but they are always really close range stuff and fiorot knows how to keep her distance on top of just obviously being the better striker. The fact that Maia challenged for the title doesn't say much, its a shallow division and this next wave of upcoming young women like Fiorot or Blanchfield can get to those spots with a few wins too. Just watch the Chookagian fights, that's a lot how Fiorot will fight her except more aggressively.
 
Second ticket: Blades (-350) + Fiorot (-400) + Askarov (-300) - $30 to win $34.29 - $64.29 total profit. 

Askarov: Slightly less confident than the last 2 but feel very strongly about Askarov winning. Pretty much everyone hes fought so far were the better ufc competition, and the better strikers than KKF. His chin has held up solid in all of his fights to the point he got hit with a knee from Moreno coming in and could still complete the takedown he was going for. Dagestani chain wrestling that KKF hasn't faced yet, and the few times it was a decent grappler he got worked. Bontorin held him down almost all round, somewhat better defense against Royval but still got subbed there. Its hard for me to imagine KKF being able to stop it. And even at striking its not a blowout for KKF, yeah probably slight favor for him in a kickboxing match but Askarov holds his own. KKFs KO threat i think is a little overblown by the fact he did it to a chinny Bontorin and the complete cracked chin of Garbrant.
 
Third ticket: Blades (-350) + Fiorot (-400) + Askarov (-300) + Khizriev (-325) $20 to win $35.87 - $120.16 total profit.
 
Khizriev: In hindsight i wish i put him higher than Askarov, but i generally do not like having action on a debut guy as a big favorite. But not only is the other guy also debut, its on a really sketchy last minute circumstance and motivations just to get a contract, since nobody else was accepting the fight. Khizriev is definitely a beast, running though some good regional competition. I don't know his UFC potential, but i know hes clearly all around way better, and on the much better circumstance, than this Tolinin guy. This guy isn't like an absolute can, but i don't think he should belong in the UFC.
 
Fourth ticket: Blades (-410) + Fiorot (-400) + Askarov (-300) + Khizriev (-500) + Magny (-210) + Latifi (-175) $5 to win $23.86 - $148.77 total profit.
 
These next two are a litle less confident than the rest above, from there on out each leg gets riskier. 

Magny: All of Max's opponents are so much lower that Magny's, and on top of that Magny is the much better striker usually. i think it can be kinda close, dont think Max has the wrestling to do anything major to Magny before he gets up. Magny also live for sub if that happens. The obvious better gas tank as well. Nothing that screams absolute lock, but i feel good about Magny winning here. Probably decision but could get a finish since its a such a step up.
 
Latifi: Yes Latifi isn't really going anywhere but he should for sure be able to beat such a old and beat down Aleksei. He will be live the first round for one of his weird chokes, but if that doesn't work out he is going to be half dead by the 2nd round. The ******* guy lays down between rounds with his legs on the stool and gasps like a fish. But there's a chance he doesn't get anything off and Latifi does a few in and out strikes to set up takedowns and just out muscle Aleksei, who is only going to fade more and more from what we saw. Latifi either finishes him at some point from there or grinds out 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 decision. If you live bet, Latifi after round 2 could be closer to a pick em if latifi gets close with a sub or control the first round. Last week i got Topouria at -140 after round 1 with the same reasoning. They also have trained together so it won't be Latifi's first time seeing that sub threat.
 
Fifth ticket: Fourth ticket: Blades (-410) + Fiorot (-400) + Askarov (-300) + Khizriev (-500) + Magny (-210) + Latifi (-175) + Nicolau (+116) $3 to win $34.40 - $186.17 total profit
 
Nicolau: This is where i have to start going for dogs to make this pay, since its only $3 of the $60. I think Nicolau is live to win here for sure. He keeps getting slept on in his fights. Dvorak's for the most part a striker with a lot of movement and thats kinda the same for Kape and Elliott. Huge experience advantage for Nicolau as well. Believe Nicolau is better on the ground too. Don't put too much stock him Dvorak choking out that atomweight sized dude on like 2 days notice. Dvorak is good and i won't be shocked if he wins but i think i edge it for Nicolau overall. Plus Dvorak is coming off some surgery, don't remember what but it wasn't anything too serious.
 
Blades (-410) + Fiorot (-400) + Askarov (-300) + Khizriev (-500) + Magny (-225) + Latifi (-175) + Nicolau (+116) + McMann (+182) $1.71 to win $50.36 - $238.24 total profit
 
McMann: Getting a little juicy here to get over +3000 total. Ive picked Rosa in pretty much every fight shes had, but they have all been kinda ****** competition, besides Edwards, who is 90% a Striker. I have never seen her deal with the kinda Olympic level wrestling that McMann will bring. The age is a little overrated, she only started at around 30, so her mileage is low for 41. Plus, she doesn't really take any damage in her fights. She does dominant wrestling to everyone she fights, including current champ, until she finds a submission, wins easy decision by it, or doesn't something stupid when tired and late in fight and gets submitted to lose. And with that, while Rosa will get takedowns and chill and do a little striking to win minutes in guard on these lesser girls, she has no attempted subs in the UFC, and no sub wins over all. So i think if McMann can get that same thing on Rosa, she will win the first 2 if not all rounds with it. Now, if Rosa can stuff McMann's takedowns and keep it standing, McMann is in trouble. I don't think she would get smoked there, but Rosa would be clearly winning. But give me McMann to get on top and start passing gaurd and landing shots.
 
Blades (-410) + Fiorot (-400) + Askarov (-300) + Khizriev (-500) + Magny (-210) + Latifi (-175) + Nicolau (+116) + McMann (+175) + Diakiese (+135) $1 to win $68.82 - $307.41 total profit
 
Diakiese: In Slava's ufc and contender fight, he's been taken down, and got back up but not without time and effort. Marc has pretty decent wrestling and could possibly find success there. But on top of that in his last fight with Bush, he looked seriously dazed after a combo Bush landed. Marc is a much better striker than those last 2 guys, plus the wrestling, plus hes never been KOed. So if he can have moments striking, not get finished, and maybe mix in some ground control he could pull the upset. I probably do pick Slava to win overall he has really nice striking but to round out this parlay with a dog i feel good about.


Holy **** how you need to get out ahead at least on your top ticket to make this work, even for 273 the lines are already getting steamed for the big favorites. I might skip looking into 273 and figure out my plays for the next card so i can put in the top two at like -250s instead of these 4's and 5's.

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 2:35 PM ET *

Saldana is pretty ****. His record outside the ufc consists of all cans. That being said, his striking is decent. I remember him absolutely peicing up lingo in the first and then once he figured out Saldana, he slowly beat the **** out of him. Granted, he did mess up his foot in that fight but still

I just dont see saldana landing much imo its gonna be souza in and out, moving alot, saldana chasing and missing for 3 rounds. i might eat my words 

@chrispm yeah I was also on the griffin side. He lost his job in the ufc Bc of that decision. Saldanas record is mostly just cans on the regional scene and, like you said, that Vince Murdock win has aged terribly 

Curtis Blaydes -315  4 units
Matt Brown -110  1 unit
Ilir Latifi -140  1 unit
Viacheslav Borshchev -155  1.5 units
Danaa Batgerel -155  2 units
David Dvorak -130  1 unit
Luis Saldana +100  1 unit

Fiorot(-285)+Khizriev(-300)= -125 parlay  1 unit

Karol Rosa wins in Round 3  +1000  0.25 units
Curtis Blaydes to win by TKO/KO  -110  1 unit
Alexa Grasso to win by Decision  -110  1 unit

I plan on adding Magny by decision and Kai Kara France by ko(7 to 1 on other bookies), just waiting for my bookie to release them

Lingo figured him out? It was just Saldana gassing. Fight wasn't even competetive in the first round to the point where it looked like the athletic comission that sanctioned the fight had messed up.
I don't know how you can't look at Saldana's striking when he is not gassed and not be impressed but maybe my eyes are deceiving me.
Souza on the other hand definitely has done nothing to impress me but he is young and has proven his cardio.

Tom Aspinall, on the ground and with the hands, is twice the fighter that Chris Daukus is at the moment.  You are absolutely correct.

Yeah, I picked Saldana on the hope that his cardio is enough to give him the first two rounds.  Probably isn't the best pick but public dogs have fleas.  So, I'm taking the flyer on Saldana to squeak one by or get an unlikely TKO early.

I see you follow my buddy CJ Saftic.  Nice.

The only worry I have with your McMann play is that she isn't just 41 years old... her gas tank empties way too fast.  Watching her last few fights, I can't back her.  She will probably get Rosa down at some point but I think she will fade hard late and it won't be pretty.  She is a legend though.  So that always makes her live!

I love the Rosa RD 3 TKO sprinkle.  Very savvy.