UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@gilese yeah he had lingo on the ropes for most of the opening round and even when he wasn’t gassed lingo ended up making a comeback as really as the first round. He started to open up more and capitalize on how Saldana doesn’t like being pressured. His striking looks nice but he’s only able to implement it when fighting at a distance. Now, Souza also likes fighting at a distance and also does not deal well with pressure but, his karate style is often quite confusing for people to read. I don’t know if Saldana has the fighting skill or iq to deal with the distance play and blitzing of Souza. We saw this happen with melsik. Even though he won the fight, we want as aggressive as he usually is, likely because of souzas style. I also have to favor the cardio of souza (he can go five rounds and is constantly moving from beginning to end in fights), but I would favor anyone with decent cardio over a guy who can only go 1.5 rounds 

In regards to the Souza vs. Saldana fight I think I'm gonna switch my pick back to Saldana due to the fact that Bruno is a point fighter and waits on his opponents to attack rather than going in on the attack himself, and the key to beating Saldana is to pressure him due to his **** gas tank, Lingo and Griffin did this pretty well in their fights against him and it showed. But I'm still very hesitant on the pick due to the fact that Saldana has a **** gas tank, but I think since Souza won't be pressing the action much at all during the entire fight Saldana should be able to hold him off to a decision. 

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 3:13 PM ET *

nah its just round 3 only. not a specific finish. mcmanns been dropped a few times and been subbed quite a few times. karol rosa is the better striker and is better at pure bjj(shes a black belt i heard). takedown d is like 80 something. i think mcmann will get takedowns but i do think she will gas doing so. karol rosa wont just lay off her back like lina lansberg did. 

originally i wanted to lean mcmann because rosas competition and mcmann is an elite wrestler. but when you dig into it, you see the odds are correct(imo). mcmann has 1 way to win, and thats lay and pray in front of a booing crowd. rosa can win by tko, sub, or dec. 

Yeah him and a few other guys i like listening to on youtube. I kinda didn't understand his system at first but now that i do i wanna give it a run through and see how it goes over a few months. Usually just do straight bets. Yeah, McMann is sketchy and you're right she does gas and thats very unlikely to improve at her age. But im counting on her winning the first 2 with it. It's to the point in the parlay where i need a juicy dog and shes the only one i'm not already against, and i trust her to win more than Wood who is really the only other option at that point. 

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 3:11 PM ET *

I could have sworn Rosas tdd was closer to 90%. She’s pretty well rounded. McMann may make it competitive (as she usually wins the first round) but will fade in the later rounds and that’s when Rosa will takeover  

Edit: it’s actually 91% damn 

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 3:20 PM ET *

I don't understand the argument that Askarov has fought the better competition. Maybe before joining the UFC? I don't have the knowledge of regional scenes to judge those fights but in the UFC?

He's fought Moreno Pantoja and Elliott. Benvidez really shouldn't count as that's a shot fighter he was facing at that point in time.

KKF has fought Moreno, Royval, Bontorin and Garbrandt.

Ok so Pantoja is definitely the second best out of all of those after Moreno but I don't see how this could be construed as a big difference in level of competition.

I understand you like KKF, but he was essentially getting shmacked by bontorin before getting the knockout. And isn't Garbrandt washed too? Elliott, even though he hasn't found success, has always been a difficult opponent because of his style and is arguably a better win than Bontorin and Paiva. 

Rakič by dec. I think this will be 5 boring rds. Jan is not better than him but Rakič is unlikely to chase a finish becouse of "guaranteed" belt fight, so he will be very careful...like with Santos. I hope i'am wrong. Not about pick but about boringness...

There’s an upside and a downside to that win tho. The downside is, he got outgrappled by a much worse grappler (in terms of overall skill) and is now fighting one of the best grapplers in the division. But, the upside is he showed that he can get out of dangerous situations. Bontorin is a serious bjj threat and Kai was able to escape and get the finish. I think he has very underrated grappling IMO

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 3:40 PM ET *

His system is 

Top Ticket: Ideally 2 fighters (very rarely 3) --- 50% minimum of your wagers on the fights
2nd Ticket: Add next two most confident picks --- 25% of your wagers on the fights
3rd Ticket: Add next two most confident picks --- 15% of your wagers on the fights
4th Ticket: Add next two most confident picks --- 5% maximum
5th Ticket (if applicable): Add the next two most confident picks: --- 2 or 3%

so on and so forth...

Pogey Rob Parlay:  Add the last fighter or two to your ticket... whatever little bit is left over.


CJ is a good man.  Glad you found him.  He has already hit a Bellator PRP this year, I believe.  He usually hits those multiple times and I know he hits at least one UFC PRP a year. He's a good follow.  It's all about the top 1-3 tickets.  That is where you will make the magic happen on consistency.  If you can set yourself up for an easy hedge (like this week) or get yourself to identify 5-6 winners per ticket, you can make a lot of money over time.

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 3:38 PM ET *

Alright, remove Garbrandt. I think my argument still stands? Has Askarov fought a decidely better competition?

I'm not talking performance, just their schedule.

Saldana claimed to have broken his foot after the 1st round with lingo 

Garbrandt's chin is shot.  He tried to go down a class and it just didn't matter.  It was a desperate move and Kara-France made him pay.  That was a nasty one.

On the saldana and souza fight , im sure that it goes to decision , who takes it is another argument, 
What are ohio judges like, someone said they were not good earlier in thread

Still just looking forward to seeing another card that isn't in the boring apex cage I don't want to see another apex card again **** covid for that reason 😂

I think McMann gets her down.  I'm pretty sure the only fighters that McMann was not able to get down were Rhonda Rousey (because she lost in 66 seconds lol) and Amanda Nunes (because she lost in under 3 minutes).  I think she can definitely get Rosa down at some point.  I just think she empties the tank in the process.

The problem I have with Kara-France, grappling being underrated or not, is his last two losses were to Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno... both grapplers.

His last two wins are to Tyson Nam (kickboxer), Rogerio Bontorin (who kills himself to make weight and still misses and more importantly isn't on Askarov's level at all), and Cody Garbrandt (Former amateur boxer with a shot chin and some high school wrestling experience).  I think it is way too tall a task for Kai Kara-France.  More importantly is that gas tank. After 7 minutes, that ****** turns all the way off.

* Edited at 03.23.2022, 3:53 PM ET *

Well i really don't think the Garbrant win is worth as much as it seems. He's one of these guys that just get their chin cracked and most of the time gets knocked out from every fight their on. It was competitive before he KOed him, i would put more stock into it if he was just schooling Cody up until that finish. Bontorin also a known chinny guy you can go back to the thread where he fought Royval a huge argument everyone was making for Royval was his bad chin, and yeah he got worked on the ground before that happened. Royval good but loses to the top tier like Moreno (even though freak injury, he was winning anywway) and Pantoja (two guys Askarov was able to do good against on ground), and he was able to out grapple KKF. And yeah, Askarov is less experienced than KKF in general, but that's not the same as competition level. Everyone Askarov fought has been top of the division besides Elliott, whose whole thing is "I'm tricky to figure out" and decent wrestler, once he figured him out he was whooping him towards the end. And yeah, KKF fought Moreno too who is his best past opponent, but he got worked most of that fight. Don't get me wrong he didn't completely get his ass kicked he has moments but he clearly lost that fight while Askarov was mostly beating Moreno until the end where he ate that knee and Brandon got on top and did some work late to get 2 10-8s for the draw. Which i get but don't necessarily think it was a 10-8 since there was a few minutes that askarov was winning even though Brandon had big moments when he was winning. Overall even when these top guys he beats has moments against him, he just finds ways to win rounds. I'm sure he's been working on his TDD and has shown mostly good TDD against these latter half of ranked guys but Askarov's Dagestani chain-wrestling will be too much for him. I understand the betting line is getting a little crazy on him but i really think he wins.

Yeah im not trying to follow his system perfectly like that, just the general gist of the progressing parlay and being able to at least break even with the top ticket.

Mix and match as you want.  As long as you put at least half of your money on the top line, the rest is really up to you.  That is just a quick write up of what he does, more or less.

@thepro I fully agree, she was able to take kettlen veiera down (she also has around a 90% tdd). Rosa being able to offer resistance is good because it will just tire out McMann in the process. 

@dc I think its interesting because kai has pretty good tdd and askarov is very inconsistent with his wrestling. yes, he chain wrestles, but his accuracy is pretty terrible. I know kai hasn't faced a wrestler on the level of askarov but hes shown to be pretty good at defending multiple attempts