UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

There are bookies that supposedly won't ban or limit players, such as Pinnacle.

Then there's, perhaps more reliably, gambling markets where you play against other players by playing against someone else's lay bet or putting up a lay bet yourself for others to play against where the company that runs the site just takes a small comission on the winning side.
They are thus incentivized to keep everyone around and have them place as many bets as possible.

Thanks for the Danaa/France fight link. Surprised at how good Danaas ground control and control on the cage is!

Also with the name Danaa I can't think the UFC will let him lose.

@gliese option B is exactly how options markets work. I have no experience with pinnacle.

Some things that have always puzzled me,

How can fighters at the UFC level, supposedly the best fighters in the world with access to high level coaching and tapes, trained their whole life from teenage age for combat and basically should be at the "Mortal Kombat" level

a) Not be able to check a leg kick
b) Not be able to do the most basic take down defence
c) Be content to lie on their backs and do nothing when taken down
d) Have genius level game plans (E.g. Cory McKenna, Mike Grundy, Nikita Krylov etc etc etc etc etc etc)
e) Not know not to go for a take down (especially when you are a pure striker) when your opponent is rocked
f) Not know not to strike with a striker and not go for a single take down when you are a pure grappler
g) Not have cardio as the most elite athletes in the world

How is this possible? Never ceases to amaze me

* Edited at 03.22.2022, 4:22 AM ET *

Just to add to the conversation on bets, I think everyone bets differently and the important thing is to find a method that works for you and re-evaluate.

Personally I don't beleive in line movement or value bets. I always feel that there is no value on a losing bet. So even if the odds are +900 what is the point if the bet loses? I think it's always better to bet who you think is going to win, regardless of the odds. But my point of view is likely different to others because I only bet parlays.

I don't agree with Gliese in saying parlays always lose, I usually make a decent profit most weeks though I have changed my parlay strategy because I suck at prop bets. I used to play up to 20 leg parlays mixing bets from other sports as well, but usually lost most parlays because of a prop or over under not hitting.That said I would lay about 100 x $1 - $5 parlays and if even 1 parlay hit I would usually make over $500 at least. I have now changed this strategy because it is frustrating seeing lines of parlays crashing because of one bad call or read. And I was not winning often enough to justify this method.

So now I bet up to 10 leg parlays with higher value bets and I have to say I have had good results so far this year. It's actually rare for me to have a week where I do not at least get my money back.

Hopefully as my skill with picks and betting improves (I am relatively new to both) I will improve my winnings.

Bottom line is I guess find a method that works for you, and don't be swayed by the odds or line movement too much, in my view they often mean less than you think. One thing I have noticed though, if there is a strong or popular favourite and the line does not move at all during the week, be careful. There may be a reason the line is not moving that we do not know about

* Edited at 03.22.2022, 4:28 AM ET *

I also think the bookies do not necessarily line bets on who is going to win, rather on who they think the public is going to bet more. Which is why you get very low odds for popular favourites and high odds for less popular fighters. They are enticing the public to bet more on the less popular fighter and limit the damage on the more popular bets. Basically for them a $10 bet probably evens out if 100 people bet a heavy favourite at low odds and 10 people bet a underdog at good odds. If they can entice more people to bet on a underdog who loses they will probably make more money. Similarly if they can sway more people off the popular bet onto the dog that also probably profits them.

Maybe I am wrong about that but that's how I imagine it works.

I think it nuts how people are calling Curtis Blaydes chinny, He dove head first into a Derrick Lewis uppercut and hit on the back of head by Francis Ngannou, His chin isn't the problem, Him getting hit in bad place by the 2 hardest punches in the division history is, Most fighter will suffer the same fate as Blaydes if that happen to them, Beside from that, He does take good shots from hard hitter like Hunt, Overeem and Rozensruick 

Also Daukaus is not a next level power puncher and can also make 205 if he wanted too, Anything can happen in MMA but I highly doubt Daukaus KO Blaydes

Duck I just re-watched the Oleinik/Daukaus fight. Some of the most god awful striking I have ever seen, from both sides!

I had not watched Daukus in some time and I have to say his striking looks absolutely terrible!  The only saving grace being that he has some speed and fires combinations. Having seen that I now really think Blaydes takes this easily, even perhaps on the feet.

I think there is a very good reason Daukaus will not go down to 205. He would get smashed there.

* Edited at 03.22.2022, 4:36 AM ET *

Magny vs. Griffin
Neil Magny, DEC
I feel like there were some matchups with fighters in the top 15 that might have been more suitable for magny.

This won't be a small Apex cage.  I don't see Danaa dusting Gutierrez early.  Gutierrez is live here.  He has some nasty leg kicks and watch the Danaa/Cannetti fight.  Danaa got his legs taken out a couple times before he smoked Cannetti eventually.  Buyer beware.

It seems like it has been difficult to find Magny an opponent for some time now. Maybe he was just ready to get back in there. A matchup with Griffin is favorable for him, because Griffin hits very hard but Magny gasses his opponents. 

I also think its going to be hard to knock Gutierrez out, should be one of the best fights of the night in my opinion. I'm going to go with Gutierrez because of his nasty kicks. 

I love me some gutierrez bet. Always great to watch him work on the feet. And if danaa doesnt threaten takedown i think chris will take this on the feet

Just to add to the betting convo. I usually only bet parlays, the money is juicier. 2-4 leg, anything more the
probability of something going wrong increases. I also like fight to end by KO/Sub, if I feel a finish. I feel as though if your watching and following this week after week you should be able to pick 2-3 fighters out of a 12-15 fight card. If you can't, save your money, your terrible at sports betting.

The only true value is when the bookies get it wrong, which isn't frequent but does happen. Last week perfect example. The books see Volkov as the favorite, better competition etc. Anyone following along knows Aspinall has future champ potential. Not a doubt in my mind he was gonna win, grabbed him at -120 after he opened at + money so missed out. An  Aspinall/Shore parlay paid out pretty well this week. I went with those two fights because I saw extreme value compared to some of the -400 and -600 going off.

The worse thing about sports betting, is you can watch every weekend, research all day, find the best values and than that’s when the unpredictable happens.

I need some people to take an ‘if, then’ logics course. Cause this is getting painful.

@Rusty, if you’re ever curious why some of those things seem absolutely 0, I can explain some of those situations with specific fighters. MMA is so much more than it seems, down to the smallest detail there is incredible variety in what results in an actionable outcome. The best example I can give is an amazing world class wrestler in Gaethje getting handled like a baby on the ground by Khabib. Does Gaethje know literally 0 and an idiot on the ground? Or is there something going on that we, myself included, can’t see that’s changing the equation. I’m probably the worst fighter in the world in many respects, but after 32 fights and countless BJJ/catch wrestling matches I can’t tell you the number of times a specific opponent has made me walk off going, “Why the hell couldn’t I (substitute x,y, or z)?

The other explanation is that MMA is still far behind other sports technically when you get outside the top ten. Guys like Mokaev we just saw last weekend are the future. Born and bred for cage fighting.

Blaydes
Love Philly fighters but Blaydes strength and wrestling may just be too much.

Kai
Gimme Kai for the upset, been looking vicious last couple fights.

Grasso
Pieces Wood up enough for a DEC.

"Anyone who had Topuria in a parlay that wasn't covered for somehow by other bets should reevaluate their parlay strategy. He's the perfect example of why over- juiced lines will kill your parlay bets over the long haul."




This makes no sense at all.. had a Topuria, Paddy and Mokaev parlay and won money


stick to 2-3 leg parlays Tapology fam

"Gimme Kai for the upset, been looking vicious last couple fights."


against some bumsss

Don't wanna disrespect the Americans but I know you're all high on Chris daukaus as he is American too, but I really don't see anything special about him , he is fast for a heavyweight yes, but aspinall is faster, also bigger and stronger and hits harder, 

Can't quite remember but I think someone else said in the thread few days ago that they don't think he beats any top 5 heavyweight and I agree 

@tieoken always laying down knowledge. 

You can go to ANY professional sport and find athletes, who it seems like should know more in a certain area.

An example is in the NFL you can find QBs who it seems can’t throw the ball in a game. 

Bottom line is these sports are made to look very easy by these athletes but are extremely difficult. Then you add on the pressure of people watching and that most of these guys are trying to make their livelihoods off this, you can see why they slip up sometimes or have gaps.