UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

There's no argument that Askarov beat Moreno. That shouldn't have even been a draw.

Anyone who had Topuria in a parlay that wasn't covered for somehow by other bets should reevaluate their parlay strategy. He's the perfect example of why over- juiced lines will kill your parlay bets over the long haul.

I saw someone say Nunes was a lock and that he was going to parlay her before she lost to Peña. At -1000 a fight is a lock and worth to parlay? If you think that you really need to run the statistics on your bets. Are you actually making profits?

Betting for fun is different of course.

Bookies build their mansions on people chasing "good value" on soon to lose underdogs. Betting on who you think will win should be first second and third priority. Then after that try to build value with a parlay or a prop or increasing the wager of a straight bet.

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 7:11 PM ET *

I don’t know if this matters but he was also clearly losing the round versus Bontorin. 

Can't wait to see Chris sleep Curtis. 

Random question but does anyone know what happened to Jarjis Danho and Juan Espino? it’s like they dropped off the face of the earth lol. Haven’t seen any fight news for either of them. 

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 7:25 PM ET *

Rather see Daukaus slept

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 7:33 PM ET *

Me too!  Let's go CHI!  Let's go Blaydes!

@erison well if it helps I think Kai will win while also seeing the line as good value so it’s a win win 

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 8:01 PM ET *

That not why the bookie live in mansion, The reason why the bookie live in mansion is because they line the fight perfectly most of the time and just say it a 60/40 fight, They get 60% of the people betting on the 60%, And 40% on the 40%, 

And the thing is that the odds aren't fair, They alway give you about a 10% charge , For example a pick em fight is -110 both side, But it should +100, Or if it a favorite and a dog should be the same but opposite number like -200 favoute and a +200 underdog because that the actully probitly of it happen, 2/1 and 1/2 chance

To kept a long story shot,  the bookie pretty much  just make profit on the 10% money of money gamble, I don't know if i just stating the obvious, or not many people realise that, But that the gambing buissness model in a nut shell

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 10:09 PM ET *

75% of the votes coming in on Slavaclaus by tko is pretty high IMO. im not so sure it goes down like that. Diakese was able to go to a decision with fiziev. Never been knocked out in 19 bouts, 10 of those being in the ufc. 

I have Diakese.

The only fight Diakiese has been an underdog was the Joe Duffy fight; against Hooker, Nasrat, Klose and Fiviez+everybody else he was the favorite.....

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 11:16 PM ET *

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CbXOetnlnUI/?utm_medium=copy_link


Diakiese also posted this on Instagram... lol. That is just bogus... 

* Edited at 03.21.2022, 11:22 PM ET *

Okay, I have concerns.

I think you are probably right bro, Blaydes it is then!

Your advice for serious gamblers is to do parlays? Wow. The house always win because they balance people's bets so that they win whichever fighter prevails.

They win more on parlays because they charge you more off the top of the proffered odds for those than they do for single bets.

Both duck and erison are right. Erison is right in the sense that 'good value' bets incur higher risks, and the public has all kinds of biases that cause them to overvalue certain fighters regularly, and the bookies are better at pricing probability than the public. The trick on value bets is low-value wagers hedged in low-risk small payout bets. The bookies don't get it wrong that often. As I have tried explaining to many ******s on this site many times, if the market was easy to beat there would be no market, and if the bookies were easy to beat there would be no bookies.

It's the same with parlays. Just from personal experience, if I throw 10 bucks at twelve 5 spotters totalling 120$ I'll virtually always win my stake back, and generally I'll hit a 2x-3x profit. Basically, I get to play the wheel for free. I disagree that parlays are stupid. They're only stupid if you're stupid about them. Again it's the same rule. Higher risk=lower stakes. Not really complicated but people try and make it complicated.

The most consistently productive type of MMA betting I have observed is live betting. I think this is because the bookies are math-heavy and you can't crunch out updated probabilities well in real time, which is probably why live odds swing so massively. Live betting and unders/overs.

Duck is right in the sense that he's...well, just right for reasons he's already explained. However serious gamblers (pros) aren't where brokers make their money, it's casual flutterers who turn up at flagship events and have a punt for fun. If you beat your oddsmaker too hard often they'll IP ban you, and you'll need to create burner accounts with a VPN. They are legally allowed to do this, and it's stated right there in the fine print. They're here to take money not to give it out.

* Edited at 03.22.2022, 2:19 AM ET *

Just been catching up on the comments.

You make a really good point about Chris Gutirez. Most of his wins have been against boxing heavy strikers who put a lot of weight on the front foot or wrestlers.

Danaa should be able to deal with that, especially now its not a surprise. I can see him wait for a leg kick and hit him over the top with a KO strike.

Question for you guys? Why do you think Daukaus took this fight so soon after getting KOd on a main card by Lewis? And a possibly bad style match up? Don't understand it tbh