UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Amettxpc 

even injured You wanna show up on 300

Yea, such a big career moment to fight on one of the 00 cards. Huge to the legacy if you win aswell even if you miss weight.

@Karambol @QMor29 you have given really good points about weight misses and training injuries during UFC Big Events fight week. To be more specific, I mean that I hope there are no cancellations during the week, UFC 200 had a very eventful fight week with the Jon Jones Doping Case and the fact that they had to change the main event during the week. In addition to matchups like Cain vs. Werdum 2 could not be materialized, for this week the only unknown would be if Kayla Harrison can make the weight and pass the medical exams after the weight cut.

Pereira vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R1
hill is going to make it look easy

Pereira vs. Hill
Alex Pereira, TKO, R2
In my head I can’t compute a reality in which a Glory Kickboxing champion gets done on the feet by a guy who started MMA in 2017. If Hill doesn’t wrestle, he doesn’t win - surely?

Zhang vs. Yan
Weili Zhang, SUB, R3
Levels to this game. I fancy a finish for Weili here, maybe with Weili knocking down Yan (who will be increasingly desperate as the fight goes on) and cinching up a choke.

Gaethje vs. Holloway
Max Holloway, DEC
Think that this goes the distance and will provoke hefty debate regarding the judges scorecards. A bloodied up Holloway eeks out a 48-47 split (this might be a heart over head pick tbh).

Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan
Charles Oliveira, TKO, R1
The champion has a name.

Nickal vs. Brundage
Bo Nickal, SUB, R1
Bo Nickal will batter a guy that got 30-27d by Sedriques Dumas.

Procházka vs. Rakić
Aleksandar Rakić, DEC
Have a gut feeling this is gonna somehow be a boring Jiri fight, where Rakic outwrestles and wet blankets him.

Kattar vs. Sterling
Aljamain Sterling, DEC
Screams 29-28 Sterling, where control time in 2 of the rounds decides the fight. Aljo loves a squeaky decision.

Yusuff vs. Lopes
Diego Lopes, SUB, R2
Not confident in this. If Diego does get this to the ground, I think he finds the sub.

Turner vs. Moicano
Jalin Turner, DEC
Jalin’s takedown defence keeps it largely on the feet, where he’s much much better. Turner’s biggest obstacle is making weight here.

Andrade vs. Rodriguez
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
Vibes pick. Andrade finds the knockout or else Rodriguez gets the decision. Binary.

Green vs. Miller
Bobby Green, TKO, R1
Too big of a step up in competition for Jim :(

Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt
Deiveson Figueiredo, TKO, R2
Figgy rocked Rob Font at 135, and he’ll knock out Cody. Wins over “Trevin Jones” and Brian Kelleher aren’t fooling me.

* Edited at 04.08.2024, 2:55 PM ET *

This is a good matchup for Figueiredo and I'm somewhat confident he should take it but I've gone ahead and put a wager on Cody because the line is just too wide for me and Cody does have a shot.

Cody is the better wrestler but Figgy is probably a better overall grappler, he scrambles well and has a dangerous guilloutine so I don't think Cody can neutralize him with wrestling, Deveison has his own good wrestling entries so that would be interesting to see. In the standup he has more power and a better chin that Cody although I do think Cody has decent power himself when he can land it.

Still, Figgy is 36, both of these guys also fight passively (at least Cody has been a bit more careful lately, he was anything but passive before lol). I could see this being a fairly low output affair if neither guy wants to lead since they are both primarilly counterstrikers.
Deveison is favored because he has a greater chance to rock Cody but if that doesn't happen it could go to a close decision under such a circumstance and end up going either way on the score cards.

Both of these guys are with good camps and training partners and are coming off wins so I expect both of them to be prepared and confident going into this.

Having a really hard time with the Lopes/Sodiq fight. Heart says Lopes and head says Sodiq. I have a feeling this is going to turn into a boxing match and Sodiq has the advantage there. His takedown defense is pretty good so I don't see Lopes getting him down to the ground very easily. Lopes' best bet would be to find his back like Bruce Leroy was trying to do and get the finish that way. A decision probably favors Yusuff

* Edited at 04.08.2024, 5:18 PM ET *

Saying it now. Thank me later. Lopez +Hill 🔒 

@DevinM34 

Lopez is going against a tough striker, I’m aware that Lopez has been finished. But, the level of improvements he has shown in striking looks good in my eyes. I also don’t think Sodiq has experienced the level of submission threat Lopez is going to bring. Give me Lopez ML all day. Gun to my head…. He grinds out a Dec. I actually think Lopez can keep up with the striking . As long as he don’t get chinned. Personally. I don’t view Sodiq as a massive KO threat, simply due to his record. Only 50% of his fights he’s finishing by KO. But, yes competition is hard.

* Edited at 04.08.2024, 5:43 PM ET *

@LockCity 

Hill and Lopez could win but they're far from locks. Both of those fights are some of the closer matchups on the card.

And I don't think Lopes can keep up in the striking at all. He even got rocked by Sabitini before he found the finish there. His head movement isn't really there in the standup. He's definitely the most dangerous submission threat Yusuff has ever fought though and that's the equalizer. He could snatch up a sub at any point in this fight. It doesn't even necessarily have to go to the ground for that to happen. And like you said, I don't see Yusuff as a KO threat either really. I see Lopes by SUB or Yusuff by DEC

* Edited at 04.08.2024, 5:48 PM ET *

@DevinM34 

they are winning. And they are locks. LockCity has spoken. Welcome to fade me though ;) I can probably write you a book on why I think Hill wins though. I’m even MORE confident in that.

* Edited at 04.08.2024, 5:50 PM ET *

card like this, i wouldnt call anyone locks.

@LockCity 

I'm fading Hill. Don't trust him after tearing his achilles matched up against Pereira and his leg kicks. Still on the fence about Lopes

@osusnp 

I’m calling it. 

@DevinM34 

ahahahah I knew that everyone is gonna bring up his injury as a result being afraid to bet on him. Time and time and time again, recovered fighters or not even fully recovered fighters prove the public wrong. Don’t over think. He’s clear to fight. Periera is gonna be in the world of trouble here. Massive world of trouble. And 2 main things Alex struggles with. Do we know what they are? I’ll tell you, fighters who are extremely durable, and fighters that are willing to close the distance with him as quickly as possible. He gets overwhelmed. If Izzy pressured him heavier first fight, he would have knocked him out too. But, I personally think Jamal Hill can knock out Izzy too. He will close the distance, remember me saying this. And this won’t be a distance strike battle where Alex excels. :)

* Edited at 04.08.2024, 5:54 PM ET *

Only locks on this card for me are Nickal, Zhang, and Turner

@DevinM34 

lol. I would never bet on 2 Chinese female fighters, because I simply don’t trust China as far as integrity in sports betting goes. I know WHO should win. But, I don’t trust it. Completely staying away from it. I don’t like China

@DevinM34 

I’d say Turner wins too. I am not super confident. I do think he wins. I took Hooker to beat him last time. What a parlay buster Hooker was 🤣