UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@baremaras 

y
ea but aljo dosent know about 145 much he has just moved up and hes facing calvin katter tough opponent for him

personally I think this is a showcase bout for him purely because I think this is the moment where we see father time hit Kattar like a truck

this fight might actually be the most winnable fight for aljo in the top 10 - it's a toss up between him, yair and giga

* Edited at 04.07.2024, 12:55 PM ET *

Jamal Hill might be a 🔒 boys :) don’t let Alex Perieras chin durability fool you.

True, Kattar is coming off the ACL tear at 36, but Sterling had disc replacing neck surgery and is basically 35. Maybe Sterling will have more power from not cutting as much weight, but he loses the size advantage and Kattar is a lot taller. Lots of unpredictable factors. But if Zabit only got 1/4 takedowns on Kattar, then Sterling shouldn't be able to get any, and if the fight stays standing, Kattar should win.

im picking bo on tap, but +1165 odds on brundage.... ill waste $10 there.

Gaethje vs. Holloway
Max Holloway, DEC
My pick is Max Holloway for the upset.

Holm vs. Harrison
Kayla Harrison, DEC
I think Kayla Harrison wins with her takedowns and ground control.

Tapology Survivor Game 102 is up!!

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/80127?page=1#post-1343958

Turner vs. Moicano
Jalin Turner, TKO, R2
TKO early in the second round for Turner. Moicano will gas himself out trying to get the fight to the ground, leaving an opening for Turner to land something big.

Andrade vs. Rodriguez
Marina Rodriguez, TKO, R1
Elbow strikes from the clinch will lead to a TKO victory for Rodriguez. Andrade will struggle to get past the reach, and will crumble under the pressure.

Green vs. Miller
Bobby Green, DEC
29-28 UD. Green outworks Miller in close fight at an extremely high pace. Miller retires in the post-fight interview.

Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt
Deiveson Figueiredo, DEC
30-27 UD. Figy works Cody in the clinch and effectively counters Cody's strikes, leading to a decisive win.

Kattar vs. Sterling
Aljamain Sterling, DEC
High confidence pick

Turner vs. Moicano
Jalin Turner, DEC
High confidence pick

Pereira vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R2
sweet dreams by Ko

Pereira vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R2
hill brings a striking profile that alex hasn’t seen (at this level) yet and his defense is absolutely not up to par. not necessarily super confident in the pick as hill saying he won’t shoot and his own defensive/injury concerns has me on the fence but i like matchup for hill.

Zhang vs. Yan
Weili Zhang, TKO, R4
i think zhang attempts to make a huge statement for WMMA on the biggest card of all time and finds a ground and pound TKO instead of coasting to her usual dominant win.

Gaethje vs. Holloway
Max Holloway, DEC
not a lot of logic or breakdown from me on this one it’s just a great brawl and i love this move and fight for max

Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R2
arman has nothing charles hasn’t seen. armans power is overrated and his wrestling profile is once again not anything charles hasn’t seen. there’s a chance arman gives charles some scrambled eggs on the ground and goes for some solid ground and pound i just don’t see it. DUUUUUUU BRON******X

Nickal vs. Brundage
Bo Nickal, SUB, R1
cody brundage got himself onto the main card of the biggest PPV of all time LMFAO

Procházka vs. Rakić
Jiří Procházka, TKO, R3
jiri is probably the worst possible matchup you could ever have after a injury and long lay off. the modern day samurai back in the win column

Kattar vs. Sterling
Aljamain Sterling, SUB, R2
perfect litmus test to see how aljo looks against 45ers. kattars TDD is some of the best at 45 and aljo will either cut through it like a hot knife through butter and find the finish or he doesn’t it’s again the perfect litmus test

Holm vs. Harrison
Kayla Harrison, DEC
piss break

Yusuff vs. Lopes
Sodiq Yusuff, DEC
love lopes but i think he gets checked here. never gone against a striker like yusuff and yusuffs defensive grappling is very good imo. awesome fight

Turner vs. Moicano
Jalin Turner, TKO, R2
just think it’s too much for moicano right now. not really talked about for whatever reason but turner is one of the most dangerous strikers at LW and moicano has had his fair share of leaky striking defense

Andrade vs. Rodriguez
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
welcome back to the andrade roulette!

Green vs. Miller
Bobby Green, DEC
we all love jim but bobby has put in to many camps to prepare against people like him for me to pick him.

Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt
Deiveson Figueiredo, TKO, R1
cody’s going to come in and try to brawl with figgy in the pocket and it’s not going to work. sorry cody

Pereira vs. Hill
Alex Pereira, TKO
Alex via TKO. Jamahal doesnt check kicks. Not possible for him to be fully healed from achilles injury. That being said, Alex is hittable and Jamahal can CRACK!

Zhang vs. Yan
Weili Zhang, TKO, R3
Weili via TKO. Should be a fun first round but can see Weili pouring it on her round 3.

Gaethje vs. Holloway
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R2
Justin via TKO. Dr is going to stop this one. Leg kicks galore

Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan
Arman Tsarukyan, TKO, R1
Arman via TKO. We all love Charles but he always gets rocked and when he does get wrestled he is too content on his back. Arman has been rocked also but it seems ever since he got hurt a few fights ago he has really improved. Dont care what anyone says, he beat Gamrot.

Nickal vs. Brundage
Bo Nickal, SUB, R1
Bo Cuckal via Sub. Why is this on the main card?…

Procházka vs. Rakić
Jiří Procházka, DEC
Jiri via Dec. Too long a lay off for Rakic, who is a solid fighter. Hopefully Jiri doesn’t attempted to block shots with his forhead

Kattar vs. Sterling
Aljamain Sterling, DEC
Sterling via Dec. Feel like Sterling will have more energy at 145. Kattar can bang so Sterling’s glass jaw has to watch out.

Holm vs. Harrison
Kayla Harrison, SUB, R1
Kayla via Sub. If Kayla can make weight, I think she runs through Holm. Can see Kayla rag dolling Holm to the ground and subbing

Yusuff vs. Lopes
Diego Lopes, SUB
Diego via Sub. If Diego fights smart and doesn’t trade shots with Sodiq. He can win this fight easily. We all know Sodiq is very dangerous Round 1

Turner vs. Moicano
Jalin Turner, TKO
Turner via KO. Renato takes too much damage.

Andrade vs. Rodriguez
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
Jessica via DEC. Can see her taking Marina down and grinding out a dec

Green vs. Miller
Jim Miller, TKO, R1
Miller via KO. Green has been slept too much. I like how slick Bobby green is at times but his hands are always down and if Miller can catch him with a hook. Green won’t cover. Fun fight

Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt
Deiveson Figueiredo, TKO
Deiveson “Devil Horn Growing Bigger Each Fight” Figueiredo via KO. Cody has been doing well but against meh competition. Figgy is a killer and can see him sending Cody to the shadowrealm. Will Cody fight smart? Or will we see the Cody that is winning the fight then suddenly decides to engage in a firefight.

Hope you win buddy, Bo Nickal losing his set up fight on the main card of 300 would be really funny. Im personally praying for Cody Brundage Guilloteen to tap Nickal. What would top that in comedy.

I’m rooting for Nickal to lose more then my favourite fighter winning 

Prochazka vs Rakic
Prochazka KO RD 2

This is a very interesting one as both are polar opposites. Rakic is a technical sniper who likes to fight at his own pace and control the fight, where Jiri is kill or be killed and forces a chaotic fight every time he steps in there. At range, Rakic is going to piece jiri up I think. Jiri doesn’t care much for defense and rakic is gonna leg kick and jab him. However, rakic has struggled in the past when forced to trade, so if jiri puts the pressure on and walks him down I think rakic is going to struggle. I was originally thinking rakic was going to wrestle, and he still might but its not as good as I remember it being; most of his control came from his opponents making a mistake more than rakic getting them down. He can def get jiri down but Jiri isn’t going to sit on his back like other people rakic has fought. The striking is very close because rakic will be the minute winner while jiri is the moment winner. I want to pick rakic because I feel like he is going to hurt jiri in the standup, but if jiri comes out aggressive like he did against reyes than I think he is going to whoop rakic. That matchup is bad for rakic because hes going to be forced to fight on the backfoot for 15 minutes and we know he isn’t comfortable when he isn’t controlling the pace. I might switch this pick, but my bias for jiri is keeping me on him for now. Can definitely see a world where he wins a clean decision or even finishes jiri; jiri is human and rakic hits hard even though he is mostly a point fighter.

Kattar vs Sterling
Sterling DEC

This is a tricky one, my initial lean before tape was that Kattar will win but after tape im not so sure. Kattar being old and coming off of an injury doesn't worry me that much honestly, im more interested to see how he deals with aljo's weird style. Aljo's style looks awful but it is very effective. Nothing he does is conventional and he has been able to frustrate & completely shut down much better strikers than him on paper. Kattar is a really good boxer but we saw moicano completely shut him down with calf and body kicks. That was a long time ago but aljo is perfectly capable of doing the same; he throws things off beat and has a weird rhytym that only he follows. I want to say I favor Kattar but I can definitely see aljo shutting him down with kicks and his weird, evasive footwork. I honestly don't think aljo is going to have a ton of wrestling success, but I also don't think he needs to wrestle to win. It pains me to say this as a big Kattar fan but this is actually a much trickier matchup than I first thought. I would love if he sleeps aljo but I think sadly aljo has a bit left in the tank.

Holm vs Harrison
Harrison DEC

I think the odds are kind of absurd here. I do think Kayla will win but -480 over holm is crazy. Losing to Pacheco last year was not a great look but at the same time, it was a closer fight than I remembered plus Larissa is one of the only people who can match Kayla's physicality. If this stays standing, I expect holm to win. Yes, she's old but her experience of striking goes a long way & she is still a technician even in this old age. Kayla's striking has always been really bad and I don't imagine it will look good facing such a large step up in competition. Kayla's grappling has always been very high level, even against cans. Against better people she is not as dominant, but her wrestling attempts paired with her judo and insane physicality help a lot. Holm has historically good tdd but never faced many people who want to take her down. At 135 I think Kayla is going to be a monster and now that she can use elbows her top control is gonna be crazy dominant. Could definitely see a fraud check here but I think holm is too washed to pull anything off

Yusuff vs Lopes
Yusuff KO RD 2

I can already tell tapology is going to hate this pick but I stand by it. Lopes is an awesome prospect but I think the movsar fight has made him overrated. That fight was a glorified mokaev vs filho, lopes has a ton of heart and put up some insane sub attempts but he also lost 30-27 and pretty dominantly at that. As good as movsar is, his submission awareness is awful; he faces sub attempts almost every fight and happens to have elite defense so he toughs it out. I will say, lopes's bjj is elite. His ability to pull subs out of nowhere is very impressive and he has one of the best active guards in mma. However, look at how he is imitating grappling. He has shown some wrestling on regionals but at the ufc level everyone has shot takedowns on lopes. Yusuff does mix in grappling at times but he is predominantly a striker. On the feet I think he smokes lopes. Lopes has decent striking and some good power but nowhere near the level of Yusuf's. Lopes is fearless though so he may swing & bang with Yusuff. I think sodiq will be able to counter him but there is a chance that Diego chins him; lopes can crack and sodiq doesn't have an amazing chin. Outside of a ko though I think sodiq bullies him on the feet. Sodiq will sometimes mix in grappling but I really hope he doesn't here. As long as he's not shooting takedowns I don't think lopes will get it to the ground. Even if he does, I think Yusuff is a good enough grappler to not get subbed. He will also throw gnp while on top so that will score more than sub attempts. There is always a chance lopes just lives up to the hype and finishes him; watching tape Yusuff is a little chinny, not afraid to grapple, and has punched himself out before. Despite this, I don't think lopes is ready for the top 15 yet. His wrestling is not that good & being reliant on people grappling you is not a good idea. I also think his standup is very flawed and Yusuf is a very legit ranked striker.

Turner vs Moicano
Turner KO RD 1

This is such a tough one. I badly want to pick moicano, and even after tape I think he has a really good chance but if I pick him I know im going to be worried every striking exchange. Now, I actually think moicano's striking is insanely underrated & his chin is better than people give it credit for but at the same time, he does get rocked a lot. Turner is going to be much bigger, but moicano is still decently big so I believe he will have some success; turner is very hittable as well. Turner is really hittable but I think he is too big and powerful for moicano to outstrike. Moicano will have his moments & I think he is going to come out striking until he feels turners power. His wrestling has improved a lot but it's hard to grapple when you are rocked. Even fi he comes out grapple heavy, I think he will find turner hard to takedown due to size. If moicano gets him down, im confident he can hold turner there and even finish, I just don't know if he will get there. I would love a moicano upset here but I think turner is a bad matchup for him.

Andrade vs Rodriguez
Andrade KO RD 2

Despite beating dern in her last fight, I still think Andrade is washed. We now know Dern's training situation is a mess & for the first 4 minutes she was landing on Andrade pretty easily. Andrade was also still doing that awful habit of rushing forward throwing hooks with her chin in the air. She does hit vey hard and is super physical for 115 but her striking has been figured out by the division & her durability has declined massively. I dislike a lot about marina's mma game, but if you choose to strike with her she is among the best in the division. Her one major flaw is that she doesn't like to get hit, but with how sloppy Andrade has been I think Marina is going to smoke her standing. The way Andrade runs in, she is so open to counters and I think marina is going to put it on her. If Andrade wrestles this will be an easy win; we've seen marina is useless off of her back and can't wrestle very well. However, when was the last time we've seen Andrade come in wrestle heavy? I think whoever wins is going to win dominantly, it's just hard to call. If it stays standing I think Andrade gets butchered; we saw Erin go toe to toe with her, dern was landing on her easily, and yan brutally slept her during a blitz. She hasn't shown me any improvements in the standup to make me believe she can hang with marina. If she is able to land, then I think she will be able to swarm and ko her. We did see lemos do this to her but I think her striking is more technical than Andrade's (forget mma math). I know marina will lose if Andrade wrestles, but I don't believe she is going to wrestle much at all


Green vs Miller
Green DEC

I'm kind of shocked bobby is the underdog on here; I understand he was koed bad last fight but it's not like hes fighting a top 15 guy here. Miller is a great vet & has been having a career renaissance, but he is still an older guy with more milage than bobby. I think it's also very important to note the level of competition. Yes, miller has the most ufc fights but look at his recent run; since 2019 he has been fighting mostly old vets and gatekeeping non ufc guys where bobby has been fighting in the top 15 for the past 2 years (besides a few guys). While bobby has been declining in the last 2 years, I still think his style is going to be difficult for miller. Hes not as slick as he used to be but bobby has very clean head movement and is always moving around sniping you with a jab and kicks. Miller has been striking heavy these past few years but I think he is too slow compared to bobby. He can absolutely land but miller is pretty hittable himself; I think he is really going to struggle with bobby's jab. Bobby's head movement is also going to give miller issues, while he isn't as slick as he used to be, bobby is still going to make miller miss a lot. This is important because miller has been throwing shots with 100% power as of late & when you miss on shots like that, you slow down. Miller hasn't gassed in a while, but he has before & you need pretty good cardio to outpace bobby. I also think miller is going to be forced to strike the whole fight, making it even harder for him. Bobby has very good anti-grappling & I think is too good for miller to hold down. I really don't like the quick turnaround for bobby, he got koed badly only 5 months ago but at the same time miller is turning around even quicker. I know he won but that matters when you are almost 41 & have 55 fights. I can understand miller catching & ko'ing him, but unless bobby has a sever drop-off in skill, I think he has the tools to beat miller

Figuereido vs Garbrandt
Figuereido KO RD 2

Figgy is the rightful favorite and I think he will win but the pricetag scares me on this fight. I understand that all figgy needs is one shot to end this but you could argue the same for Cody. Figgy isn't chinny at all but Cody doesn't throw to win decisions. Cody has won his last two but it's hard to rate where hes at because hes fighting way below his skill level & he had moments where he looked really bad. While he is still very good, I think it's important to note figgy has a lot of milage on him as well. The striking is going to be close I think, both guys are generally low volume because they throw to knock each other out & here I think both will respect the power. I have to favor figgy because every shot he lands is going to hurt Cody bad, to the head, body, leg; doesn't matter, Cody can't take a shot. That being said, I do think Cody's movement could pose some issues to figgy, who likes to brawl and stalk his opponents. Cody hasn't been brawling anymore so I think the in & out movement, paired with his power could cause some issues. I have to take figgy here but I wouldn't be shocked by an upset. I know Cody can lose at any moment but I still think he has some skills left. However, I learned by lesson with Phil hawes in jan, can't trust the guys who can't take punches

Periera vs Hill
Hill KO RD 2

I think hill is being counted out here. Poatan is a beast and definitely the better striker on paper, but people underestimate hill. His striking looks ugly, but he is one of the best guys in the division. Hill is huge but also really fast for the division. He has really good hands but mixes everything together in his striking. His defense does worry me, hill likes to brawl and relies on his chin. His chin is honestly pretty insane for a lhw but nobody can eat a clean shot from poatan. Despite the risk taking, I think Hill's style presents some issues for poatan. I thought the blindado fight was interesting; while poatan clearly won, that fight was a lot more competitive than the scorecards showed. Poatan beat silva up because he has no defense, but silva was able to give him some issues when he pressured and threw heat up against the cage. Hill can keep that same pressure, while also being bigger than silva & with a much more expansive striking arsenal. I am worried about him leaving his chin in the air and the calf kicks, but I think hill is going to come prepared to deal with those things. Despite being out for a while, I think hill has spent this time learning new things and will come ready to meet the challenge. Another thing I like about him is he shows improvements every fight. Coming back in his prime, I think he is going to look good here

Zhang vs Xiaonan
Zhang SUB RD 2

Seen a lot of people saying xiaonan is a good dog. I want to agree but at the same time, if weili wrestles this fight is going to quickly be over. I kind of hope we get to see some striking because these two will go to war on the feet. Both ladies don't back down and are very explosive. As good as weili is, I think yan has the striking advantage. Her volume is insane and she is a nasty counter striker. Weili can obviously win on the feet but it's not going to be easy if she does that. Yan has improved her wrestling/grappling a lot since the Esparza fight, but it's still not on weili's level. Weill's wrestling has improved a lot & I think it's fair to say she is an elite grappler at this point. Yan may be able to defend some takedowns but I think she gets killed on the mat. Weili wasn't able to finish lemos but I think against someone like yan who panics on the ground, she will cruise here.

Gaethje vs Holloway
Holloway SUB RD 3

I didn't expect to like max here but the more tape I watch, I kind of have a feeling he will win this. I didn't like the 155 move at first, but ive seen recent photos and he looks really big currently. Then I also remembered the last time he went up, he only had 5 months to bulk compared to the additional 2 he has here. That fight with DP was also a lot closer than people talk about imo; max put up a dog fight and it was really close. Considering gaethje is 1-1 with poirier, that fight was good info. Max did nearly get dropped but he recovered well and really held his own against dustin; I think the scorecards were way off, I had it 3-2 dustin. It's hard to say if max is declining either, he got destroyed by Volk but has looked as good as ever since. Gaethje is still the same wild brawler as always but he has been fighting slightly more technical in these last few fights. He beat the **** out of fiziev with his jab round 3 and then caught poirier with that super unexpected head kick. Max is obviously the more technical guy but gaethje is so good at what he does. Max sizes up really well with Justin so im not sure the power is going to affect him as much as everyone says. On the flip side, I actually think he can hurt Justin. Max is obviously a volume puncher but he does hit hard; I could definitely see him cracking gaethje. Max hasn't faced an aggressive leg kicker so that will be interesting, but I have a feeling he will do well at checking & even returning kicks. I also think max's body work will do a lot here; gaethje has good cardio but if you work the body he can tire. Now you may be wondering why submission but I see a club and sub here. Justin has a very good chin so I think hes going to try and clinch with max & max will snatch something up. Obviously ko is more likely but I got a weird feeling. Then again, this could prove to be a terrible move & max gets destroyed but who knows; I think this is very close

Oliviera vs Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan KO RD 2

I love do bronx but I don't get these odds at all. I really want him to win but I find it hard to see a path to victory. Everyone wants to talk about arman getting rocked but he made one mistake after dominating the entire fight & then promptly finished silva after getting hurt. I think he wasn't respecting his opponent and just let his guard down, he has shown really good defense in other fights. Plus, if we want to talk about getting chinned, Charles has been dropped many times. No doubt he is the better striker but on the feet I absolutely think arman can hold his own. I actually think Arman's kickboxing is very good; he has powerful body kicks, really good hooks, and a nice headkick as well. Arman also possesses a ton of natural power which makes him even scarier. Do bronx brings that classic chute boxe Muay Thai style on the feet. He pressures you & tries to take your head off. Charles is kill or be kill but what makes him so scary is his accuracy. He hits hard as it is, but he is so good at landing precisely on the chin. In terms of wrestling, I think this is where it gets bad for do bronx. His bjj is amazing and he is great at creating scrambles but taking risks doesn't work out as well when you are at the elite level. I could see armen getting caught in a sub but no way he taps or goes out imo. He is also very aware on the ground as it is, meaning he doesn't put himself in bad positions on the mat. Weather Charles pulls guard or not, arman shouldn't have any trouble getting takedowns. If Charles tries to play guard im worried arman is just going to beat him up with gnp. We saw Joel Alvarez try his bjj strategy and arman butchered him. Do bronx is obviously a much better grappler but it shows that he knows how to deal with that style. I would love another win for do bronx but I think arman is just that guy; if we don't count the gamot robbery, he has only lost to islam when he made his debut

Nickal vs Brundage 
Nickal KO RD 1

I don't mind this as a test for bo. I know people don't like brundage & while I agree that he is terrible, Bo would get killed if the ufc tried to match him against a top 15 guy. I really like bo but he is extremely untested in his career so I don't mind slow rolling him. He has a ton of power in his hands but I don't think his striking is actually that good. He leaves his chin up in the air and I really dislike his movement in and out of the pocket; he just jumps in and out while leaving himself open to be countered. Having people be scared of the wrestling threat does help though. Brundage is actually not a bad striker at all & he also has power. I wouldn't be shocked if he catches bo with something or maybe even takes him down; his wrestling is decent as well. Despite being decently skilled, Cody is his own worst enemy. He doesn't like when it gets tough in there so he will pull guillotine to try and finish a fight or end up in a position that gets him finished. He doesn't have much head movement so I think that overhand right of bo is going to be money. We haven't seen his mma wrestling tested much. He should be able to get brundage down but brundage does have solid tdd (when hes not jumping guillotine) and can wrestle so im curious. Brundage does give up so if Bo tries hard enough he will get takedowns. Im probably overthinking this and he steamrolls brundage in a minute but given brundage's strange ufc career & bo's record padding idk what to expect.

Anyone like Cody against Figgy? I think he can keep it standing for more than 10 minutes of the fight, he will no doubt be harder to take down than Font was. If you agree with that premise I don't see how -310 or more be justified. Deiveson was timid and staying on his back foot against Font and I think Cody can violently walk him down.

I don’t think Cody walking down Figgy is the best idea, look at a Cody fights and see how well that end up, Figgy hit hard too. I don’t see how Cody don’t get slept they’re 

I think a more  likely path for Cody is  both guys are timid and Cody wins a stinky split decision where nothing happen

* Edited at 04.07.2024, 7:57 PM ET *

I think is pretty clear that Cody has no chin anymore and that he needs to fight with a in and out footwork style to win this. If he tries to brawl, stalk figgy or hang in the pocket for to long he is going to get send to the shadow realm. 

Figgy still has good power a division up and even if I think Cody is a faster fighter, its not going to be by a lot. Definitely not the crazy speed diference of his last fight.  Figgy by KO. Don't see it leaving round 2.

It's going to be a long 5 days till 300

@SANGRES 

enjoy the buildup to it