UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Bo inside the distance , better money. 

Turner v Gamrot was the toughest one for me. Tape study says Gamrot's grappling should be too much for Turner but I just have a feeling Turner will have levelled up some. I think he really is extremely talented and built for the sport. I've been waffling about this one since the start, it was the first fight I capped on this card.

Also yeah Bo props I have no qualms with if you can find something good go for it. Actually should look into what the lines are on those myself, haven't done so.

gliese58i  I was just about to comment on that fight. Since I just rewatched some fights of Turner. Turner had a very similar opponent in Frevola and had some real good moments in that fight. He may have lost that one, but rocked Frevola several times. You can clearly see that his takedown defence has gotten better since that fight. He also uses a lot of uppercuts and knees to avoid being taken down, which you could see in his fights against Riddell and Mullarkey. That being said; he's rather clueless when he does get taken down. 

Turner definitely has a chance to win this fight. Though I only see him winning by KO

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 9:42 AM ET *

Penne vs. Ricci
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
I’m

FIGHT DAY GENTLEMEN 

Jones vs. Gane
Jon Jones, SUB, R3
Jones has a tough challenge, but his reach and unpredictability will be to his favour - on top of the pressure of fighting a legend that ciryl would have watched and may of even admired. Success for Gane requires the fight to stay on the feet and maintaining control of the octagon.

Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko, TKO
Valentina's last fight was very close but regardless of the result of the fight, it proves Valentina is human and does make mistakes. Alexa has worked on her cardio and hopefully has worked on her submissions and wrestling as this is the clear path of victory for her.

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Geoff Neal, TKO, R2
I doubted geoff too many times - but today i expect him to severe the Kazakhstani his first lost in explosive fashion.

Garbrandt vs. Jones
Trevin Jones, TKO, R2
cody no chin

Radzhabov vs. Ribovics
Loik Radzhabov, DEC
Okay

ITS FIGHT DAY GENTLEMAN! We got great prospects, many top 10 fights, hot women, & the return of Jon Jones against his toughest opponent yet. Time to play RDR2 for the next 6 hours to make the time fly by. Good luck to everyones parlays!

I actually think he won that fight vs Frevola and that's been my stance on it from when it aired to whenever I rewatched it. I think he clearly outdamaged Frevola who had a lot of control, a lesser scoring criteria.
Turner has for sure improved a lot since then but Gamrot is also a lot better than Frevola.

I think the reason why I ultimately stuck with Gamrot as the pick is Turner has to improve on two dimensions since last we saw him, his grappling and his cardio. If it was just one thing I think I'd be on the dog here. I still like Turner's chances because I'm not as high on Gamrot as most people are but I have to lean Gamrot still.

Not been hyped for a card like this in a long time can just tell we all gonna have a very profitable night

My most confident picks are:

Garry ITD
Bo nickal ITD
Shevchenko fight o1.5 rounds
Basharat by decision 
Du plessis Fight does not go the distance 
Jon Jones fight o1.5 rounds
Marquez fight does not go distance
 
My lesser confident picks are:
Gamrot to win
Rakhmanov fight o1.5 rounds
Saaiman by finish
Garbrandt 
Jon jones to win

All that’s left to do now is wait but let’s this money you ******s

Bo ITD is -700. Don't know about putting my neck on that one lol.

Andres, I agree with you almost completely on the Jones fight. In his prime at 205, Bones was one of the four guys you could call the MMA GOAT with a straight face. He was absolutely dominant, nearly unbeatable in all phases of the game. His last run of fights were less than impressive. He was fighting "not to lose", and by all appearances it was just a matter of time before some good light-heavy (not necessarily a great one) knocked him off. Then he took three years off, ostensibly to train and put on "good weight". Now he's facing one of the sharpest heavyweights in the game. The physical advantages (height, arguably strength) that characterized his dominance at 205 pounds just won't exist against Gane - with the exception of reach, which will be less pronounced than it was against most of his previous dance partners. This is literally the toughest test he's had from an objective standpoint - guys like Cormier and Machida may have been better p4p fighters, but they weren't heavyweights when he fought them. The guy who squeaked out victories against Santos and Reyes shouldn't be the favorite against Gane, especially after three years of sabbatical.

Granted, I see the opposite viewpoint when breaking this fight down by skillset. Gane was outwrestled by Frances, so it stands to reason that Jones should be able to own him and grind out a decision on the ground if nothing else. Also, we remember how GSP (his peer in the group of four guys mentioned above) was arguably a better fighter after his time away from active competition, and Jones has been training with Cejudo, who has emerged as one of the best guys in the field. One difference, however, is that GSP was arguably the most driven athlete in the history of the sport in terms of training and focus, whereas Jones is...not, to put it charitably. Let us also recall that Frances, non-wrestler that he was, matched decorated mat warrior Miocic on the ground as well, and Gane's matchup against the scariest man in the sport shouldn't be used as a benchmark as to how he will perform against a blown up light heavyweight. 

And then there's the question of cardio. and how Jones will do carrying an extra 40 pounds.

So I'm picking Gane.