UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

same here, but they both suck, Martinez struggled with Canetti and Davis...


I guess it will be split desicion for Saaiman

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 4:52 AM ET *

Gane did open at -150 iirc. The line has since shifted because Jones at plus money is huge huge huge value for most people, reasonably

But I do agree. I think Gane has this in the bag. If you're very confident, Jones is almost up to -200 now, so you could profit off of that line

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov, TKO, R3
A war until Rakhmonov shoots.

Pickett vs. Nickal
Bo Nickal, TKO, R1
Nickal is actually a monster

Brunson vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R1
Du Plessis needs to murder this lad early or Brunson will blanket him & pound him out - but what the hell do I know

Jones vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, DEC
Jon better pray he can control Gane for extended periods of time, because he's getting cooked on the feet otherwise. Jon's quirky striking works well against small guys or grapplers, but you stick a great striker in front of him he looks like the wacky inflatable arm flailing tube man. And he's outmatched in the kicking game by Ciryl too. However, if this is a close fight Jon has excellent "GOAT" plot armour and the judges will give him the W. I definitely expect a decision here regardless unless Jon is totally washed - which I doubt.

Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Shevchenko, TKO, R3
Grasso is decent enough but I'm not sure she has any real advantages in this fight other than maybe pure boxing? I foresee Grasso being stuck in a crucifix, getting elbowed until the ref calls it. Better grapplers than Grasso have succumbed to the same position. Even when Valentina is apparently "off" she beat Santos, landing more damage regardless of the position.

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov, SUB, R3
Neal's better than I once thought, but Shavkat is as good as Khamzat with totally opposed energy. Calm, patient and methodical. Yet he finishes every fight. Neal's good enough to make it to 3rd, but I've seen him look reeeal tired in that round and Shavkat won't be. He's getting finished on the ground.

Gamrot vs. Turner
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
Gamrot is a big step up for Turner who was preparing to fight a slower, battle worn Dan Hooker. Instead he's get an elite grappler who's recently outwrestled Arman Tsarukyan for 5 rounds. I mean I thought Arman won, but it was an amazing and incredibly close fight either way. Gamrot can wrestle for 3 rounds at 95% no problem. And he's not Australian. Turner  has fought 8 times in the UFC, 4 times against an Australian and he beat all 4. 2 and 2 against non Aussies. Weird to have fought so many Aussies though, right? 

Pickett vs. Nickal
Bo Nickal, SUB, R2
Anyone seen anything impressive from Pickett? Because I haven't. He's getting fed to Bo before being cut. The end. I say R2 to give some respect to Pickett but he's getting finished. Maybe Bo will opt for ground & pound to show he's not just a submission guy? These mfers love to do that when I'm certain a sub is coming.

Garbrandt vs. Jones
Cody, DEC
Honestly could go either way. Prime Cody whoops Jones, but prime Cody seemed to last 5 minutes. But he has great striking when his brain is functioning and better wrestling than Jones, so if he can keep his glass chin safe and avoid fighting emotionally he can outwork Jones pretty comprehensively and maybe get the KO? But a Cody looking for the KO is a worrying sight these days. Please Cody, be patient! 

Brunson vs. Du Plessis
Du Plessis, SUB, R2
I enjoyed Blonde Brunson's recent streak, but it's over. He's 39, can't take damage and has one shot to victory - laying on Du Plessis. Du Plessis is a young, hungry, athletic and well-rounded fighter. Brunson was seconds from being unconscious against Till and Kevin Holland who've both totally fallen off. Du Plessis is a far superior grappler to those guys and doesn't care about how cool the fans think he is. And he's not gassed either, he just does weird breathing and we all know it. Why do we keep having this discussion?

Machado Garry vs. Song
Ian Machado Garry, KO, R2
Garry's training with the right guys, has a great attitude and is thirsty for a finish. Oh, and the UFC 100% want him to win, hence this fight. Song's there to be KO'd. He may spoil the party and last 3 rounds but I've not seen anything that convinced me he will. He's been away for a while so we'll see. But the UFC are pretty sure Song is sleeping IMO and so am I.

Do you think Jones will be going for the grappling exchanges right out of the bat?
I think he's going to be initiating wrestling exchanges from the 1rst round.
The question is how will Gane's TD will hold up.

Also, can they please replace almost every journalist at this press conference? They were the most stale, repetitive, mind-numbing questions I've ever had to sit through and the fighters felt it too. Are the UFC making them do this? I get them not wanting Ariel anywhere near the promotion at this point, but get some personality. And I don't mean 40 year old men wearing purple outfits saying "cap" and "lit". I'm 32 and I missed the boat on these phrases so you most certainly did. Get over it. These brown nose, ar*e licking gremlins are ruining the world.

I hear you. I like Saimon. But something about this has me spooked

Drake laid a curse on Jones. I don't think he is gonna win 

Mana's most impressive stat is not having gotten KO'ed yet,.
..But hey, there's a first time for everything..

This card looks pretty good ,i hope it won't disappoint us

firstly probably you guys won’t care but I want to say sorry I haven’t been as active this week, my motherboard decided to **** itself. Anyways these are my predictions this card. Like always if you have questions just ask


Loik vs Esteban

The first fight of the night, and what a way to start the card. I’m going to be taken experience over youth in this fight 
Loik was versed the higher level of opposition compared to Esteban. Loik grappling ability is going to cause problems for Esteban. I’m also not worried bout the short notice for Loik as he was preparing for TUF. I see loik winning a Dec or late finish 

Basharat vs Da’mon

When I first saw this fight I was surprised why everyone is on basharat. Then I decided to watch the tape, then I understood why. Basharat is well rounded everywhere, I’m really impressed with this kid. Da’mon is no slouch tho, and could pose a threat to basharat, especially in grappling but I don’t see that happening. I see basharat controlling this fight everywhere either winning a clear Dec or a ground and pound TKO in round 3 

Ricci vs Penne

I didn’t watch tape on this fight, and I can’t be bothered. I think Ricci put hustles penne in the grappling exchanges. Ricci does have bad striking but Penne isn’t the one to exploit that. Ricci Dec

Martinez vs Saaiman

I have a really weird feeling about this fight. Saaiman is good (especially his cardio) but young, still has a lot of areas to grow. He is the well rounded kid and the one with better tape. Saaiman last performance wasn’t that impressive to me more specifically his output. Mama tape hasn’t been impressive but he has shown an evolution in his game, seems like mana is becoming more technical striker. I oddly think mana wins this fight if it stays on the feet. Could even be a controversial decision that goes to mana. I just have a really weird feeling about this one guys. Also word on the street is mama wanted this match up, there are reasons for that

Garry vs Song

I have to be honest I was never on the Garry train, but after that last performance I was extremely impressed, this guys counters, combos ans how he sets traps is just beautiful. This is a great match up for garry. Garry finds his second ko in the ufc in the second round 

Barriault vs Marquez

War, underrated fight, on a monster card. I’ve heard Marquez is back to his old ways not showing up to every training and goofing around instead. Both have similar skills, this fight could go either way, but I’m siding with barriault to be the busy man on the night. I’ll be sitting this on out 

Araujo vs Ribas 

Been 50/50 on this fight, I’ll be staying away. Personally I like Araujo here, in a close 15min fight 

Brunson vs Dricus

I’m taking a chance in Brunson here, I believe his wrestling is going to cause Diricus some real problems. Diricus cardio is also been questionable, imo it’s not that good. I also noticed when watching tape Dricus leaves his head high just like Brunson. Brunson has faced the much higher level guys and only lost to the higher level guys. I don’t believe Diricus falls into that category and I believe brunson top control will be too much for Diricus and leads to a late TKO either by ground and pound or faking a level change to overhand. I’m taken a chance on brunson at those odds 

Garbrandt vs Jones

Another good fight, my thoughts on this match up Garbrandt is the much higher level fighter and should win this fight. But does that chin hold up? Moving down then up wouldn’t help it. Rumour is Garbrandt has been strengthening his chin. Trevin jones has a low output, but when he lands he can cause some serious damage. He comes in an awkward angles and is overall good but not 5 star. I’m tore at this fight for one reason can I trust Garbrandt chin? I think Jones output will help Garbrandt in this fight. At this current time I have Garbrandt to win a decision but this could change. Don’t bet this fight 

Nickal vs Pickett

Do I really need to break this down Bo Nickal submission round 1

Turner vs Gamrot 

I’m taking a shot on Turner how can you not at these odds. Turner has improved so much from his last fight, I’ve doubted ans doubted this kid but he keeps proving me wrong, he is beating talented fighters like it is nothing. This kid is dangerous, and very talented. Gamrot is always very talented especially his wrestling and I do see the oath of victory for him, but I genuinely think not many people can stand with Turner’s striking. Turner with a big upset putting the whole division on notice. 

Rak****nov vs Neal

Big test for Rak****nov, Neal is no slouch. Neal has crisp clean striking and good wresting defence but I do think Rak****nov passes this test. Rak****nov is so talented, he is spectacular to watch, the way he sets his striking up to the way he mixes in ground game. This guy is very talented. I do think this fight has a good change to go to the cards, Neal is a very game opponent. I think Rak****nov does find a late finish in the third. Rak****nov, Submission/Dec and R3/Dec I think are good plays.

Shevchenko vs Grasso

Another Shevchenko win here I think, my prediction this fight either ends round 4 5 Dec .Grasso is actually really good, has good boxing but I think Shevchenko counters are going to be the bigger of the exchanges, I’m sure Shevchenko will test Grasso ground game but I think grasso will handle herself and survives as she has improved in this area. Valentina either wins in round 4, 5 or Dec. Personally I think it will be a Dec, 

Gane vs Jones 

The return of Jon Bone Jones. This fight is going to be such a technical chess match. Gane with his fantastic footwork, movement, good kicks and soild jab. Against Jones with his creative striking and great wrestling game. I firstly have to say I have so many questions about Jon’s return, what will he look like fighting with extra weight? Will his timing be off? What will he look like after a 3 yearoff? How will jones adapt to the new evolution of mma? That’s just some of them. I have to say tho from appearance and mindset jones does look ready, but we saw this with Reyes and that turned out to be a competitive fight. I think this match up will be one of Jones hardest as Gane is just as athletic as jones. I believe Gane’s leg kicks and footwork will cause problems for jones. But saying that the ****ch is where I see jones being most successful or uses a heavy wrestling game plan. I truly believe Gane is one of the better strikers in the ufc, and most will struggle will his striking. My Prediction is Ciryl Gane by Dec but I will not be betting this as I just can’t put myself to bet against jones. I believe this fight ends in round 4, 5 Dec is a great competitive Main event 

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 9:17 AM ET *

ryanQ  I agree with your take on the Martinez vs Saaiman fight. I personally think Mana wins if they keep it on the feet and Saaiman wins if he can take this fight to the ground. I still favor Saaiman though

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 8:42 AM ET *

Turner , Gane and Marquez at +1500.

It’s fight day! And by the way Dricus is about to light fire to Brunson, Brunson has one of the weakest chins in the middleweight division, if his wrestling is successful he loses via KO. He fatigued wrestling Jared and Jared hates wrestling, Dricus is the opposite, he loves wrestling & bjj. He’s been doing it since a kid

And also Dricus’s gas tank doesn’t seem to be the best yes, but Brunson fatigued in the Jared fight due to the pace on the feet and the resistance on the ground. I wouldn’t say Dricus is winning 100% but Brunson is not a safe bet imo

Regarding Bo I will say what I always say about a -1000 favorite that is untested in some facet of MMA whatever it may be. They're going to win and you're out of your mind if you bet on them.