Topic: UFC 285

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

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Tapology

Location: www.tapology.com
Member Since: 2012.01.20
Predictions: 0 | 0.0%
Forum Posts: 29,176
Post Score: 48

10.24.2022 | 11:38 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Saturday 03.04.2023 at 05:30 PM ET
U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ESPN
Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
Ownership: Endeavor
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Enclosure: Octagon
TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
Ticket Revenue (live gate): $12,150,000
Attendance: 19,471
MMA Bouts: 14
Promotion Links:
Event Links:

Bout		Info
Jon Jones defeats Ciryl Gane via Submission, Guillotine Choke		2:04 Round 1 of 5 Bout Page
Alexa Grasso defeats Valentina Shevchenko via Submission, Rear Naked Choke		4:34 Round 4 of 5, 19:34 Total Bout Page
Shavkat Rakhmonov defeats Geoff Neal via Submission, Standing Rear Naked Choke		4:17 Round 3 of 3, 14:17 Total Bout Page
Mateusz Gamrot defeats Jalin Turner via Decision, Split		3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Bo Nickal defeats Jamie Pickett via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke		2:54 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Cody Garbrandt defeats Trevin Jones via Decision, Unanimous		3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Dricus Du Plessis defeats Derek Brunson via KO/TKO, Corner Stoppage		4:59 Round 2 of 3, 9:59 Total Bout Page
Amanda Ribas defeats Viviane Araujo via Decision, Unanimous		3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Marc-André Barriault defeats Julian Marquez via KO/TKO, Punches (standing TKO)		4:12 Round 2 of 3, 9:12 Total Bout Page
Ian Machado Garry defeats Kenan Song via KO/TKO, Punches		4:22 Round 3 of 3, 14:22 Total Bout Page
Cameron Saaiman defeats Mana Martinez via Decision, Majority		3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Tabatha Ricci defeats Jessica Penne via Submission, Armbar		2:14 Round 2 of 3, 7:14 Total Bout Page
Farid Basharat defeats Da'Mon Blackshear via Decision, Unanimous		3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Loik Radzhabov defeats Esteban Ribovics via Decision, Unanimous		3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 54
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Noxx

Location: The Low Lands
Member Since: 2022.06.10
Predictions: 693 | 62.5%
Forum Posts: 2,258
Post Score: 152

03.04.2023 | 2:00 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 630 Points | Tied for 3097th

TripleTurboChamp Gane's right hand is fine. They asked him about it during the pre-fight press conference. He showed his hand and said, everything is fine. The picture that people have been posting on twitter is just an optical illusion.

"Learning is a gift, even when pain is your teacher"

gliese58i

Location: Sweden
Member Since: 2020.11.10
Predictions: 1,125 | 65.7%
Forum Posts: 8,095
Post Score: 129

03.04.2023 | 2:01 PM ET

@Amettxpc

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 725 Points | Tied for 1393rd

Doesn't have to be Pickett surviving 3 rounds, there's DQs and injuries and the puncher's chance as well. All of those have to be dodged 8/9 times in order to turn a miniscule profit of like 1.33% avg (across the 9 bouts), 12% on the one payout.

Edit: So it would go like this (warning math ahead): 1.14 odds (-714). Hits 8/9, profit 8x0.14 = 1.12. Lose the 1 unit on the 9th bout where it falls through. Profit: 0.12u over 9 bets.

If he finishes more than 8/9 and the market is wrong then it becomes more profitable. But any additional profit will only increase the avg profit on that bet from the 1.33% ROI level. So let's say the market is paying out double the actual amount that it should. Then maybe you get a 2.66% ROI. Wow, worth getting a stomach ulcer over.
Just put that money into a more lucrative bet somewhere else.

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 2:08 PM ET *

"Watch the spine!" - Chris Tognoni when a fighter is hit in the lattisimus dorsi

sexychlorogirl7

Member Since: 2019.07.16
Predictions: 26 | 69.2%
Forum Posts: 3
Post Score: 33

03.04.2023 | 2:12 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 450 Points | Tied for 5016th

I don’t know about optical illusion. Gane broke his hand during the tuivasa fight back in september of last year and got surgery shortly after. It’s a boxers fracture most likely and it could be problematic. We won’t know for sure until the fight.

Amettxpc

Location: Panama City, Panama
Member Since: 2020.04.15
Predictions: 11,881 | 73.9%
Forum Posts: 1,648
Post Score: 201

03.04.2023 | 2:12 PM ET

gliese58i

Predictions: 13 of 14 Winners, 4 Perfect, 830 Points | Tied for 216th

I find it weird to imagine a scenario where Nickal doesn't ground Pickett in the first 20 seconds. But a DQ or NC can happen even from there with some headbutts, injury in transitions, illegal knees or punches back to the head or anything like that. Even as Bo Nickal's mom said in the embedded, he is a wrestler and in wrestling you are not used to taking punches in the head, but in this case even a punch combination or kick attempt may be the way Nickal uses to get a takedown on Pickett.

"Moicano Wants Money!"

weeit

Member Since: 2021.12.02
Predictions: 172 | 69.2%
Forum Posts: 325
Post Score: 7

03.04.2023 | 2:14 PM ET

@*******er

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points | Tied for 2284th

You need to re watch the fight

gliese58i

Location: Sweden
Member Since: 2020.11.10
Predictions: 1,125 | 65.7%
Forum Posts: 8,095
Post Score: 129

03.04.2023 | 2:17 PM ET

@Amettxpc

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 725 Points | Tied for 1393rd

I also find that very unlikely but as you acknowledged, DQs and injuries if nothing else is also part of the sport. Also these upsets do happen from time to time including against veteran superstar champions like GSP or Amanda Nunes.
Bo Nickal even though he looks amazing is a 3-0 guy making his UFC debut. I just don't think it's long term sustainable to bet at these odds and especially not a guy that hasn't already proven himself in the UFC.

"Watch the spine!" - Chris Tognoni when a fighter is hit in the lattisimus dorsi

papuhart

Member Since: 2020.08.15
Predictions: 256 | 62.9%
Forum Posts: 647
Post Score: 125

03.04.2023 | 2:20 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 420 Points | Tied for 5132nd

doc said everything is fine, just a keloid

"conceive believe achieve"

Noxx

Location: The Low Lands
Member Since: 2022.06.10
Predictions: 693 | 62.5%
Forum Posts: 2,258
Post Score: 152

03.04.2023 | 2:38 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 630 Points | Tied for 3097th

"Learning is a gift, even when pain is your teacher"

Drmaxis2

Location: Red Mountain
Member Since: 2020.06.27
Predictions: 2,657 | 71.1%
Forum Posts: 542
Post Score: 477

03.04.2023 | 2:38 PM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 6 Perfect, 740 Points | Tied for 1156th

I reckon I'd breed with Alexa Grasso without too much convincing

"What a Grand and Intoxicating Profile"

Th35har9

Member Since: 2023.02.20
Predictions: 24 | 66.7%
Forum Posts: 3
Post Score: 100

03.04.2023 | 2:41 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 7 Winners, 4 Perfect, 415 Points | Tied for 5187th

I am newer to MMA and have yet to see Jon Jones fight and wish he is really the goat but he is training with Walt Harris and he padded up with fat just like him.. I'm all in on Gane..

weeit

Member Since: 2021.12.02
Predictions: 172 | 69.2%
Forum Posts: 325
Post Score: 7

03.04.2023 | 2:43 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points | Tied for 2284th

Grasso looks like a kindergarten teacher but has that dog in her. It won’t be an easy night for Shevchenko

TripleTurboChamp

Location: Your mom’s house
Member Since: 2023.02.08
Predictions: 14 | 78.6%
Forum Posts: 2
Post Score: -200

03.04.2023 | 2:51 PM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 630 Points | Tied for 3005th

Sure and when Dillashaw was "fine" but said he was hurt fight night. It'll come out and Gane will whine about his hand after he loses.

"I AM HIM "

Cheeseball

Location: The Moon
Member Since: 2020.07.18
Predictions: 13,280 | 71.6%
Forum Posts: 5,930
Post Score: 241

03.04.2023 | 2:58 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 7 Perfect, 815 Points | Tied for 335th

Jones vs. Gane
Jon Jones, TKO, R3
Hope I’m wrong.

"🌽⚽️"

Erix424

Member Since: 2023.01.14
Predictions: 7 | 71.4%
Forum Posts: 4
Post Score: 50

03.04.2023 | 3:05 PM ET

I think 3 minutes Into the second round JJ gets clipped behind the ear.. gane gets the finish @ 3:10 of the second round via TKO I also believe JJ will retire after this fight

Latrel Dog

Member Since: 2022.09.18
Predictions: 756 | 65.3%
Forum Posts: 473
Post Score: 132

03.04.2023 | 3:12 PM ET

Bets

Predictions: 9 of 14 Winners, 4 Perfect, 630 Points | Tied for 3097th

Basharat ML + Ricci by Sub or Decision + Ian Garry by KO, TKO, DQ or Decision (Main bet)

Jones x Gane over 1.5 + Valentina x Grasso over 1.5

MLs for this event aren't good tbh. I'm seeing some money coming on Amanda Ribas, so I'll probably take a shot on Araujo ML.

I'm confident about a CLD + Juliana Miller parlay for the next weeks, so I'll go lightly on this card.

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 3:19 PM ET *

Andrew1047

Member Since: 2022.06.18
Predictions: 3,617 | 82.9%
Forum Posts: 1,796
Post Score: -78

03.04.2023 | 3:16 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 770 Points | Tied for 712th

Throw in Nickal ITD

Andrew1047

Member Since: 2022.06.18
Predictions: 3,617 | 82.9%
Forum Posts: 1,796
Post Score: -78

03.04.2023 | 3:17 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 770 Points | Tied for 712th

I had Ribovics but going against my gut feeling and switching, probably will regret it

Schned

Member Since: 2023.02.10
Predictions: 55 | 60.0%
Forum Posts: 4
Post Score: -500

03.04.2023 | 3:19 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 390 Points | Tied for 5284th

Jones vs. Gane
Jon Jones, TKO, R1
Spinning backfist

Gamrot vs. Turner
Mateusz Gamrot, SUB, R1
Dance choke

Brunson vs. Du Plessis
Derek Brunson, TKO, R1
Superman punch

Marquez vs. Barriault
Julian Marquez, TKO, R1
Flying knee

Machado Garry vs. Song
Kenan Song, SUB, R1
Armbar

DamienHandel420

Location: Yah mom house
Member Since: 2018.09.01
Predictions: 5,505 | 67.0%
Forum Posts: 6,766
Post Score: 259

03.04.2023 | 3:20 PM ET

Weeit

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 4 Perfect, 655 Points | Tied for 2614th

Nah Mate, he right, Jiri ended Reyes career, That spinning elbow was just brutal, I don't even think Jan who whoop Reyes up too ended his career, But it would of help as Jan broke his nose and bruse his ribs

Jon Jones didn't do career changing damage man, You just a fanboy of Jones, Being bias makes people say stupid stuff

* Edited at 03.04.2023, 3:31 PM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

bracket

Location: I think I broke my jaw
Member Since: 2021.10.19
Predictions: 382 | 64.1%
Forum Posts: 1,726
Post Score: 4

03.04.2023 | 3:22 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 6 Winners, 2 Perfect, 355 Points | Tied for 5378th

GARRY + NICKAL + SHAVKAT + VALENTINA

THANK ME LATER

This user is suspended from posting until 3 months, 1 day, 4 hours, and 41 minutes from now.

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1	johnnyjohnstone	14 of 14	985
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42	JoseLobo	13 of 14	900
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Topic: UFC 285

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

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@Amettxpc

gliese58i

@*******er

@Amettxpc

Prediction Comments

Bets

Prediction Comments

Weeit

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