Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

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Tapology
Tapology
  • Location: www.tapology.com
  • Member Since: 2012.01.20
  • Predictions:  0  |  0.0%
  • Forum Posts:  33,026
  • Post Score: 47

10.16.2020 | 10:28 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 02.06.2021 at 05:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN+
  • Name: UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
  • Also Known As: UFC Vegas 18
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Brendan Fitzgerald, Daniel Cormier, Dominick Cruz
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Daniel Cormier
  • MMA Bouts: 12
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Alexander Volkov   defeats   Alistair Overeem   via KO/TKO, Cross-hook Combo   2:06 Round 2 of 5, 7:06 Total Bout Page
Cory Sandhagen   defeats   Frankie Edgar   via KO/TKO, Flying Knee   0:28 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Clay Guida   defeats   Michael Johnson   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Alexandre Pantoja   defeats   Manel Kape   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Beneil Dariush   defeats   Diego Ferreira   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Danilo Marques   defeats   Mike Rodriguez   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   4:52 Round 2 of 3, 9:52 Total Bout Page
Devonte Smith   defeats   Justin Jaynes   via KO/TKO, Doctor Stoppage (eye Injury)   3:38 Round 2 of 3, 8:38 Total Bout Page
Karol Rosa   defeats   Joselyne Edwards   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Lara Fritzen   defeats   Molly McCann   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Seung Woo Choi   defeats   Youssef Zalal   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Timur Valiev   defeats   Martin Day   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ode Osbourne   defeats   Jerome Rivera   via KO/TKO, Left Cross   0:26 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page

Responses Page 6

thebluedash
thebluedash
  • Location: United States
  • Member Since: 2020.11.27
  • Predictions:  6,700  |  63.1%
  • Forum Posts:  775
  • Post Score: 286

01.28.2021 | 4:12 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 12 Winners, 3 Perfect, 455 Points   |   Tied for 1158th

Decided on a parlay with Sandhagen/Kape/Rosa/Smith/Chiassion, lets hope it dont come and bite me. :)

"Don't follow my bets, it's probably wrong."

HiDefff
HiDefff

01.28.2021 | 5:15 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 500 Points   |   Tied for 720th

Comparing picks when we have the same amount of picks and you have a lower % doesn't really bolster your argument but sure go on.
RangerJW
RangerJW
  • Member Since: 2018.10.01
  • Predictions:  3,058  |  62.4%
  • Forum Posts:  434
  • Post Score: 348

01.28.2021 | 5:28 PM ET

Rosa v Edwards

Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 3 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 338th

Edwards impressed me in her debut with her scrambles, kick variety, and offense volume on the ground. She also has good instincts to turn it up when she feels her opponent fade. Rosa has a good jab and good combinations, and uses check hooks and straights to keep her opponents from rushing in. She also has a good clinch and comes out hot in the first round. In her debut, Edwards took a minute to feel out her opponent. I think this will cost her against Rosa. I also think Rosa has the edge if it gets dirty along the fence. I see Rosa coming out strong and taking the first round leaving Edwards playing catch up. Both fighters will take damage as they each like to engage, and both fighters will get a bit sloppy by the third round, but Rosa will take it by decision.

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 5:45 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

of course to an internet geek, we're comparable by picks. 
I didn't join to be the greatest picker, but if that's how respect is earned then i'll probably never earn the respect of the internet. 
I have gained the respect of my friends, everyone in my close circle has hit over $1200 from my ufc picks and I have handed them all their biggest ticket...and I was the last one of my peers to get into gambling.

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 5:50 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

@bluedash
Do not bet Devonte smith. Alex Da Silva is going to win that fight.

I also would recommend never putting females in parlays or bets.
I only think smith and rosa will lose in that parlay, the other names are all solid picks

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Tieoken
Tieoken
  • Member Since: 2015.07.05
  • Predictions:  1,977  |  59.0%
  • Forum Posts:  3,620
  • Post Score: 313

01.28.2021 | 6:09 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 1941st

@Axl has the smoothest brain I've seen on this board, and that's saying something. Hey, buddy out of curiosity are you donating your body to science when you die? Cause the Autism foundation really could do some great work with your generosity.

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

Tieoken
Tieoken
  • Member Since: 2015.07.05
  • Predictions:  1,977  |  59.0%
  • Forum Posts:  3,620
  • Post Score: 313

01.28.2021 | 6:20 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 1941st

Here's some fun **** for you Axl, compared to the average members of this board. Literally just this one card, you're not even within a standard deviation of the AVERAGE predictor. You're literally ~2 standard deviations below the average. You know what 2 standard deviations below the average in IQ is considered? ********. So congratulations you're an MMA ******.

Username Pick %
Thebluedash 56.8
Hideff 60.1
RangerJW 61.3
Tieoken 59
Fisty 73.8
JoshJeffords 57.2
RappinPapSoda 59.4
TheDuck 64.4
Hyrm 63.2
Bazik 62.4
Aric 68.2
Dr. Maxis 66.9
ModestMan 62.5
StephenTerry 67.2
TWJAKE 64.7
JustinTodd43 64.4
Kuma 67.3
JohnVolcan 61.1
KevinRandleman 63.6
xconchris 63.4
Erison 62.5
LoudenSwain 62.8
Card 65.7
Mikey1903 70.4
Rkn5 58.5
Checklefthook 57.4
Jakey1988 66.1
Average 63.34444
Stdev 4.110524

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 8:18 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

Of all 27 people in that table, only 10 people have more than 600 UFC fights (including myself)

I have 720 fight predictions where most of those names are barely into their 200s & 300s. There's even a few that haven't even called 100 ufc fights. You yourself have barely called 440 fights. That means i have predicted almost 24 entire UFC events more than you alone. 

only 9 of them truly have a better pick rate than myself. 
Therefore i'm top ten in that list for ufc predictions.
If you're going to bring up prediction stats,
I would ask that you bring UFC stats only since this is a UFC forum. 
All those other free picks you got from regional fighting circuits don't mean ****. 

* Edited at 01.28.2021, 8:19 PM ET *

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 8:26 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

If you want to give people credit for having tons of unknown fights under there record, by all means go ahead. 
but if you're comparing UFC pick rates to average pick rates JUST so you can seem like a smart guy, i'm gonna be the one to bust your balls.
GOOD CALL ON THAT MASON JONES PICK LOL

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Hippie
Hippie

01.28.2021 | 8:31 PM ET

^

Predictions: 5 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 295 Points   |   Tied for 2872nd

Haha..
Always love how u leave “ Hippie “ out.  GJ mates!  🐜 
Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 8:40 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

Hippie's pick rate is nice, you're more than welcome to the hotbox anytime pal.
No ins needed.
watch out for that tieoken guy, i think he's a narc.

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Tieoken
Tieoken
  • Member Since: 2015.07.05
  • Predictions:  1,977  |  59.0%
  • Forum Posts:  3,620
  • Post Score: 313

01.28.2021 | 8:47 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 1941st

My apologies @Hippie I must have missed your comments earlier in the board. I am ashamed, the quality of my research is lacking. Who is gonna publish me now.

@Axl, you realize that if I take only people with over 700 picks then you slide even further down the totem pole of autism right? Like you’re so stupid it makes picking on you seem cruel. Like I’m joking about you being ********, but every exchange we have makes me question that.

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

depmode33
depmode33
  • Member Since: 2020.09.13
  • Predictions:  248  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  1,383
  • Post Score: 183

01.28.2021 | 9:01 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 2419th

@Axl702, what makes you so sure that Devonte Smith is losing the fight?  I hate when people post things so confidently which emotionally alter other peoples picks when they are searching for some advice.   

Nobody is ever 100 percent sure of anything especially when it comes to MMA.  

And women's fights do have some value in them.  I won big by betting Joanne Calderwood by decision on the previous card, it was like +155 on FanDuel.  Women's fights have made me a lot of money over the past 5 months.
Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 9:06 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

Sit down and learn your place as a "Fighter" 

If you're a gambling man who profits off fights, then i'll keep shut.
if you're another tapper who only has a .9% better pick rate, then show me a strong list of underdogs you've called, then i'll keep shut. 

I never denied that I was mma ********....because I probably am....
i'm pretty ********...atleast what's I get told when I call my greatest underdogs😌....

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 9:12 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

In my opinion, Alex Da Silva is the real deal. 
Brazil's youngest savage who got robbed against Brad Riddell.
He's had 2 intense fights with grown men back to back.
Devonte smith is less experienced, just as young, and was just knocked out pretty embarrassingly. He also just suffered the death of his sister which is traumatizing. His contender series win was alright. 
I really think Da Silva is slick with his striking and blends his takedowns perfectly. 
I don’t see why Devonte Smith is a huge fav when the odds on this fight are 50/50. 
There is a clear experience and skill advantage for Da Silva.

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 9:16 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

Also I don't believe that nobody can be 100% certain. That's where having fight experience or having a high understanding of fighters and their tendencies comes into play. 
One can definitely know when a fighter has no chance of winning, whether it's due to styles or experience.
In MMA it is less common because only few fighters are of the highest degree.
In boxing, it's frequent and easy to catch, the odds usually reflect this as well.

If you would have asked me last week. I thought Dustin Poirier Marina Rodriguez and Joanne Calderwood and Makhmud all had 0% chance of losing. I realistically knew poirier could lose but there's no way anyone was going to convince me Conor was an absolute pick of the century.

* Edited at 01.28.2021, 9:26 PM ET *

"R.I.P. Beneil"

depmode33
depmode33
  • Member Since: 2020.09.13
  • Predictions:  248  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  1,383
  • Post Score: 183

01.28.2021 | 9:19 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 2419th

Okay, now that's a good description.  So we have two finishers in Smith and Da Silva going at it, so Under 2.5 would be the play or even Under 1.5 maybe?  

* Edited at 01.28.2021, 9:20 PM ET *

Axl702
Axl702
  • Location: Las Vegas
  • Member Since: 2019.05.22
  • Predictions:  2,951  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  483
  • Post Score: 110

01.28.2021 | 9:23 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

Da Silva had a close split decision loss to Brad Riddell...
Smith just got knocked out by a guy called the Deathstar...
I think Brad Riddell (tiger muay thai coach)  knocks out Khama worthy and devonte smith.
there's my MMA Math 
I'm not sure when it ends, but i'm confident Da Silva gets his hand raised. 
i think he gets the KO early second round.

* Edited at 01.28.2021, 9:24 PM ET *

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Tieoken
Tieoken
  • Member Since: 2015.07.05
  • Predictions:  1,977  |  59.0%
  • Forum Posts:  3,620
  • Post Score: 313

01.28.2021 | 9:33 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 1941st

I’ve picked Mounir Lazzez, Julian Erosa, and Darrick Minner. Just to list some of the biggest underdogs I’ve called. I do profit off of gambling, how have you not seen my posts when I call a pick? I quite literally refuse to pick favorites on Tapology because I represent my picks based off odds value. I can show you my slips for all those fights too lol. 

If you’re such a gamer post your bets before the fight, or go on capper tracker? You act like you’re such a hot shot and are the best picker but you have a **** pick rate? Like I went down and ran the numbers on if I bet your picks for the last 5 events, you’d be negative almost 300% my man. The board is just for fun and friendly banter between MMA hardcores. Check your superiority complex in the YouTube comments section.

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

depmode33
depmode33
  • Member Since: 2020.09.13
  • Predictions:  248  |  57.3%
  • Forum Posts:  1,383
  • Post Score: 183

01.28.2021 | 9:38 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 2419th

Axl, the only thing I didn't agree with on your previous posts is telling someone there is no value on betting women's MMA.  There is actually MAJOR value betting on women's MMA because most of those fights end by decision.  And since a lot of underdog women do win and they are usually at great odds, that is some great money for whoever that bet on them.  



* Edited at 01.28.2021, 9:42 PM ET *

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