UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

The issue with both the previous statements is that he is trying to sell his picks. He cant challenge or fully say who is gonna win because then there would be no purpose in purchasing the bets when he gives them away for free on Tapology.  But i do agree, Atleast he is rational and well spoken and seems like a nice individual unlike the ****** mmafortuneteller.

Not true at all. There are plenty of Touts on twitter who give out free bets as well as sell premium bets as well and still drop breakdowns of every fight with their opinions. RobBrownBetting, Brett Appley, Technical Timz, MMALOTN, ZEE, all of them post plenty of free content that is very useful for some people as well as sell premium bets on their respective sites as well. Its just about your approach here on Tapology. you come in as a white belt posting about your 100's units of profit and your betting record is the only thing you engage talking about than you're never going to get any action here. On the other hand if you're interactive on the site and talk about things other than your record lol and breakdown the fights. and hit over 60% of your bets im sure you're likely to get a few buyers if not more. If you guys want to look at someone for selling bets Check out RobBrownBetting. He has 5 straight years of tracked MMA profit. 

A little sample of wine before buying the bottle. I get it. 

Like my site for SharkHuntersDFS. charge a monthly subscription and all but we also have a trial offer on the site as well. Submit your email and you receive one free lineup for the sport of your choice. We have a $5 week trial if you dont want to commit for a whole month based off of the free line given. I've been on tap for 2 years now or so and i've never once mentioned it in the forums lol I have a few subscribers who came to us directly from Tapology. You dont have to sit in here and boast about your record to gain subscribers from tapology. You just have to be active in here without shoving your product in peoples faces with your every post. So yes a little free wine for example goes a long way if you distribute it right. 

Thanks Stephen and Hidef. 
Unfortunately however I have very little to offer in the way of intuition or opinion. I can't give logical arguments about a predicted result, but I can talk numbers. With some colleagues we tried betting on UFC events for a time without much success, but then chose to rely on stats and maths only (we've a few skills between us in that department). I go into it on our site, but in sum our system is designed to remove human intuition completely, which is usually flawed in this game.
MMA is unpredictable, but the information is there to make it more predictable than chance. Every prop bet we've made on the betmma.tips site was calculated by an algorithm we created. Hopefully it'll work into the future, but it certainly works with historical data going back 2 years. It remains to be seen if it has a long term predictive value, but so far so good.
Of course, you can be there to watch if it all comes crashing down.
I hope to change your mind Stephen, that numbers and stats/odds analysis is ultimately where successful betting lives, at least in this sport.

And no more shameless promoting, I promise, haha

I do agree some numbers can be used when predicting MMA like the previous example you used with Kape and Pantoja going to decision. I personally myself bet that line because I thought it was off. But for other reasons than probably yours. The place it differs from the other sports that you can use algorithms to predict outcomes is that there are no come backs. The fight is timed sure but it can be stopped at any point unlike any other sport. So ML will be off all the time in this sport just for that reason. For example say NFL, If the Chiefs as a favorite say -200 go down 14-21 points by halftime. No matter what they still have a chance to come back and justify that ML. In MMA a KO or Submission from a crazy punch or a lazy takedown attempt and that -200 is done. Theres no next quarter and potential for comeback. So in that sense some numbers won't apply when it comes to the crazy variance of MMA. For that you do need a little Intuition and tape study. The best example of this was Michael Johnson on this card. Throw his numbers out the damn window the second they are released and just bet on his opponent. All his metrics are great but if you WATCH Michael Johnson than you would know his best MMA skill is ripping defeat from the jaws of victory lol. and he's a dead fish once he hits his back. Guida ML was free money if you watched Michael Johnson tape. No numbers applied there. 

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 10:40 PM ET *

@Killbot2000

I agree with @HiDefff again here. Stats are useful but they are no substitute for knowledge and experience. If for instance you have two fighters who both go the distance in most of their fights then of course the stats and logical interpretation align to say that it will go the distance but if it's one stronger fighter who often goes the distance against a fighter who is weaker on paper but can end it all with one shot then that's where you have to study the fighters and make up your own mind as to how likely it is for that shot to land or whether or not the "favourite" fighter can nullify that threat, especially if the "favourite" has never fought against someone like their opponent before. If you're making money with your approach, then good for you and I wish you the best but I just feel that it's unwise to rely on stats alone. 

* Edited at 02.10.2021, 10:56 AM ET *