Completed MMA Bout

Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida

Main Card | Lightweight · 155 lbs | MMA

Clay Guida defeats Michael Johnson via 3 Round Decision

Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Michael "The Menace" Johnson

Guida
Decision
Round 3

Clay Guida Michael Johnson

"The Carpenter" "The Menace"

35-20-0   Pro Record At Fight   19-16-0
Climbed to 36-20   Record After Fight   Fell to 19-17
+165 (Slight Underdog)   Betting Odds   -185 (Slight Favorite)
United States   Nationality   United States
Johnsburg, Illinois   Fighting out of   Boca Raton, Florida
39 years, 1 month, 4 weeks, 1 day   Age at Fight   34 years, 8 months, 2 days
155.0 lbs (70.3 kgs)   Weigh-In Result   154.5 lbs (70.1 kgs)
5'7" (171cm)   Height   5'10" (178cm)
70.0" (178cm)   Reach   73.5" (187cm)
Elevation Fight Team   Gym   Sanford MMA
UFC Fight Night
  • Bout Information
  • Event: UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
  • Date: Saturday 02.06.2021 at 05:00 PM ET
  • Referee: Mark Smith
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Bout Billing: Main Card (fight 10 of 12)
  • Pro/Am: Professional
  • Weight: 155 lbs (70.3 kg)
  • TV Commentary: Brendan Fitzgerald, Daniel Cormier, Dominick Cruz
  • Broadcast: Aired Live on Main Card
  • Post-Fight Interviewer: Daniel Cormier
  • Johnson Total Disclosed Pay: None Disclosed
  • Guida Total Disclosed Pay: None Disclosed
  • Event Links:
  • Bout Links:

Johnson vs. Guida Wiki

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Johnson vs. Guida Fight Predictions

Tapology Community Predictions: 3499  
.
KO/TKO
.
Submission
.
Decision
Johnson
77%
Guida
23%

Event Discussion

Killbot2000
Killbot2000

02.09.2021 | 9:54 PM ET

Thanks Stephen and Hidef. 
Unfortunately however I have very little to offer in the way of intuition or opinion. I can't give logical arguments about a predicted result, but I can talk numbers. With some colleagues we tried betting on UFC events for a time without much success, but then chose to rely on stats and maths only (we've a few skills between us in that department). I go into it on our site, but in sum our system is designed to remove human intuition completely, which is usually flawed in this game.
MMA is unpredictable, but the information is there to make it more predictable than chance. Every prop bet we've made on the betmma.tips site was calculated by an algorithm we created. Hopefully it'll work into the future, but it certainly works with historical data going back 2 years. It remains to be seen if it has a long term predictive value, but so far so good.
Of course, you can be there to watch if it all comes crashing down.
I hope to change your mind Stephen, that numbers and stats/odds analysis is ultimately where successful betting lives, at least in this sport.

And no more shameless promoting, I promise, haha
HiDefff
HiDefff

02.09.2021 | 10:39 PM ET

I do agree some numbers can be used when predicting MMA like the previous example you used with Kape and Pantoja going to decision. I personally myself bet that line because I thought it was off. But for other reasons than probably yours. The place it differs from the other sports that you can use algorithms to predict outcomes is that there are no come backs. The fight is timed sure but it can be stopped at any point unlike any other sport. So ML will be off all the time in this sport just for that reason. For example say NFL, If the Chiefs as a favorite say -200 go down 14-21 points by halftime. No matter what they still have a chance to come back and justify that ML. In MMA a KO or Submission from a crazy punch or a lazy takedown attempt and that -200 is done. Theres no next quarter and potential for comeback. So in that sense some numbers won't apply when it comes to the crazy variance of MMA. For that you do need a little Intuition and tape study. The best example of this was Michael Johnson on this card. Throw his numbers out the damn window the second they are released and just bet on his opponent. All his metrics are great but if you WATCH Michael Johnson than you would know his best MMA skill is ripping defeat from the jaws of victory lol. and he's a dead fish once he hits his back. Guida ML was free money if you watched Michael Johnson tape. No numbers applied there. 

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 10:40 PM ET *

Stephen Terry
Stephen Terry

02.10.2021 | 10:55 AM ET

^

@Killbot2000

I agree with @HiDefff again here. Stats are useful but they are no substitute for knowledge and experience. If for instance you have two fighters who both go the distance in most of their fights then of course the stats and logical interpretation align to say that it will go the distance but if it's one stronger fighter who often goes the distance against a fighter who is weaker on paper but can end it all with one shot then that's where you have to study the fighters and make up your own mind as to how likely it is for that shot to land or whether or not the "favourite" fighter can nullify that threat, especially if the "favourite" has never fought against someone like their opponent before. If you're making money with your approach, then good for you and I wish you the best but I just feel that it's unwise to rely on stats alone. 

* Edited at 02.10.2021, 10:56 AM ET *

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