UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

Tony is very likely going to win. I picked Gatheje over him but that's because Gaethje is a Boxer with big power and solid TDD. That was a bad matchup for him, this fight is not.Tony's BJJ is lethal but his wrestling is just moderate.

I like Oliviera a lot, but he's not a power puncher nor a boxer. He is definitely not going to KO/TKO Ferguson. As evidenced by the Gaethje fight, it takes something exceptionally monstrous to put him away. We don't even know what that is because it's never happened. Gaethje hits like a bus and couldn't do it.

 He's not subbing Tony either. Charles has superb BJJ but so does Tony. It's likely going to be stalemate in that department. It's rare that BJJ practitioners at their levels sub one another when they meet in MMA.

 So that leaves the possibility of a decision. Let's talk about that:

Tony's SLPM is 5.80. For Charles it's 3.27.
Tony does absorb slightly more per minute, but a lot of that has to do with him eating it to dish it out worse as a result of his pressure and when you consider who Tony has fought vs who Charles has fought, that's not especially surprising. 6 of Oliviera's last 7 wins have been to fairly low-output strikers.

Charles has in fact never fought anyone that throws at the rate Tony does, and every time he has fought a pressure fighter who does throw a lot he has lost--eg Felder, Holloway, Lamas.


Tony only loses this if he's a changed man after the shellacking Justin dropped on him. And personally I'm not willing to bet he is.

* Edited at 12.07.2020, 3:20 PM ET *

I think Barret is definitely worth a play at those odds. Watch Barret vs McGunness  Mcguinness is pretty much a carbon copy of Hooper in terms of his striking style and build. Hooper is massively  overrated.

* Edited at 12.07.2020, 3:50 PM ET *

Just go back to fight Island IMO.

I care about all those apart from the Hill fight. Ugmoe SJW chickenhead looking *****, could care less if she ever fights again and I hope she's permanently affected by the Virus.