UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Last card of the year, this entire thing is a mine field, but you are smart people, your mistakes will be small. Make sure they are small. No room for failure! 1, 2 or get specific. Hope you have all done your research.

Good Luck, Have Fun!

Garbrandt vs. Kelleher
Cody Garbrandt, DEC
Stinky

Gaziev vs. Buday
Shamil Gaziev, SUB, R1
Arm triangle

@Calfoth 

I am flattered that you think I have the powerful ability to force cancellations simply because I wrote it on tap. Lol  I didn’t jinx anything

**** you are right. there has been like no cancellations. pumped for this card

Luque vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
I’m

I’m looking at Aldana inside the distance, but I can make an argument for Rosa by decision being profitable also. I think Aldana has a solid argument for being the most dangerous women in the UFC right now, but I think the substance of her game isn’t great, but she get away with lack of substance because of how dangerous she is

I think they’re a solid argument Rosa is more skilled, but I personally don’t think it going to matter because of Aldana danger and I see her getting finished

* Edited at 12.11.2023, 10:48 PM ET *

No women in the UFC is more dangerous than Weili Zhang rn. Not even a question tbh.

O’neill vs Lipski  
O’neill KO RD 3

This is a tricky one, who ever is able to implement their gameplan here is going to look -500 but what makes this hard is who will be able to get the fight they want. Casey’s gameplan is extremely simple here, just spam takedowns. I’m honestly not a believer that Lipski’s tdd has improved all that much. Obviously it is better than it used to but her 3 recent wins are against horrible wrestlers. Now, casey also falls into the category of a horrible wrestler but theres a big skill difference, all flaws aside, between the girls lipski has beaten and casey. Casey’s wrestling is super ugly, her entries are terrible and she puts herself into compromising positions frequently. She is very slow with her attempts too, so I am quite worried lipski is gonna fend them off. Sometimes casey scores nice takedowns but the majority of her attempts are terrible though. The difference between Casey’s wrestling and the other girls lipski has fought is the grappling edge. She did fight gatto last time out, but Gatto’s grappling style is dependent on her working off her back, so she is a poor wrestler. Casey’s initial attempts are horrible but if she can get the clinch, I think she will be able to get her down with a trip. If she can’t get a TD in the clinch, then she has just willingly given an advantage to lipski. For all the flaws in casey's game, she actually knows how to complete double & single legs, something lipski’s previous opponents can’t do; for example, JJ has so many good entries on a single & was so close but then stopped halfway through, casey is finishing those takedowns if she gets the legs like that. If casey is able to get this to the ground, this will be a domination; If the fight is standing, i do favor lipski pretty heavily, but Casey’s style may be able to even the playing field. Lipski is a fantastic striker, she has great kicks to all parts of the body and very powerful & fast boxing combos. However, her recent fights have all been against girls who aren’t really finishing threats and give lipski the technical fight she wants. Casey doesn’t allow you to breathe, she steps on the gas right away and spends the whole fight walking you down and throwing an insane amount of punches. The problem with this style is she chases & is pretty slow so she takes a lot of damage just to get in the opponents face. Its hard not to see how this style gets her in trouble here against lipski but, Lipski has always struggled when fighting girls who make it a dogfight. zombie girl slept her bad (asterisk on that tho cuz lipski was compromised) and she lost a 30-27 to mccann. Lipski’s striking is very good but when you pressure her shes not nearly as good. Her defense is also pretty bad, even in her technical fights she was still getting hit with some clean shots. This is a close fight but I favor casey. I think she will grapple but she can definitely win on the feet too, its just going to be ugly.

Ulanbekov vs Durden  
Durden DEC 

I can admit when I was wrong, Durden is way better than ive ever given him credit for; he has improved an insane amount from when he first got here. I don’t wanna say his wrestling has improved that much, because its always been pretty good. The reason its looked so dominant recently is because hes fought three guys with awful tdd in a row, so it will be interesting to see how he does as hes finally facing someone who can match his wrestling. Ulanbekov is an interesting case because he is a dagestani wrestler but his wrestling looks really **** at times; he has some really bad habits with his wrestling and can also be taken down with oddly little resistance. Obviously he will attempt to defend but he has been taken down by some very low level moves like when silva lat dropped him for example. Since going to ATT, durden has clearly been influenced by their grappling system. When he gets a bodylock takedown, he immediately tries to swing to the back and get a body triangle. If he can’t do that, hes going to immediately start chain wrestling and try to grab whatever he can get ahold of. With his improved cardio, durden can chain wrestle for days and wont get tired. I really want to see how cody will react to someone actually showing resistance to his takedowns and matching his scrambles; I'm not 100% sure how much his cardio has improved because he was tired against hadley in round 3 (they both were) and Hadley was initiating wrestling exchanges when he shouldn’t have which bailed cody out a little. The thing about tagir is he can be taken down relatively easily but he is very skilled at getting back to his feet; He's been taken down 8 times in the ufc but nobody has been able to hold him down for longer than 30-45 seconds. On the other side, I’m not sure if ulanbekov will be able to hold down cody. Cody has never fought someone who can test his wrestling; mokaev finished him too early to see how that would’ve played out and the other two times hes been taken down were early on in round 3 when he was gassing (he didn’t get held down long either). If the wrestling cancels out, then I favor Cody in the striking. Ulanbekov’s striking is awkward but effective. It’s very basic, just jab and straight punches only to the head, but he is pretty good at landing due to his frame. However, he is very stiff and gets hit a lot as a result. He doesn’t know how to check leg kicks at all and his head never moves off the center. Durden’s striking is honestly pretty good; really aggressive kickboxing, good leg kicks, and great power. Both guys get hit a good amount but I think durden is the much cleaner striker. While durden’s submission defense has improved, his awareness has not; he gets caught in subs so often. He will have to be very careful when going for takedowns because Tagir’s arm in guillotine is nasty, if Durden gets caught in that he is definitely getting submitted. This is a really close fight but I think I lean durden; never been impressed with Tagir.

Fili vs Almeida 
Almeida KO RD 2

This is such an awesome fight, both these guys love to get into brawls and throw caution to the wind so we should be in for a good one. Almeida did get destroyed in his last fight but imo that was just a terrible matchup for him. Almeida has a bad ground game but I don’t think it's as bad as sabatini made it look, sabatini is just that good on the ground. Fili is a pretty good wrestler but he is inconsistent with his usage of it. Fili mainly uses it when he gets rocked but occasionally he fights smart and uses it to win close fights like against algeo and jourdain. To win this fight, I think Fili is going to have to come in with a wrestling heavy gameplan. He can absolutely win on the feet, but his brawling style gets him caught a lot. Hes been knocked out a couple of times and has been knocked down a ton. I think this style is particularly bad in this matchup because, much like gaziev vs buday, almeida has crazy power. He wins his fights by turning it into a crazy brawl because he thrives in the chaos. Fili will be able to get takedowns if he wants to. His bjj is underrated but he doesn’t use it that much either. This fight is actually pretty competitive on the feet, almeida is dangerous but with that chaotic style comes poor defense and the aforementioned terrible grappling. Almeida has great recovery (as does fili for that matter) but he gets dropped for being too reckless in almost every fight. Fili also has some bad tendencies on the feet; for such a veteran, he fails to pick up on overhands all the time. He got cracked with them recently against Jourdain & Wood and brito slept him badly with one. I don’t think almeida is on the same technical level as Fili but both these guys are going to be standing with one another and with how much fili gets caught, I don’t think he can afford to brawl with almeida the whole fight; he can absolutely win but he has to fight a perfect fight, Fili loves to throw caution to the wind and get in fun striking fights but in doing that he just makes the fight easier for Almeida to win. Fili is smart in that he will wrestle if he knows hes starting to fall behind, but I think he needs to wrestle from the first round (even if its just 1 or 2 attempts a fight) to get almeida thinking about it or else hes just gonna gain in confidence and find him with something. If he does do this, then I think he can win this fight pretty easily but he has never came in with a gameplan like that, when he does start wrestling, its only after he loses a round or the fight is close. Even when he gets dropped he goes right back to striking. Given these habits, i’m gonna go with the dog again because this matchup benefits almeida. 

Buday v Gaziev  
Gaziev KO RD 1

This line is baffling to me. I love gaziev & can acknowledge he has a lot of holes that he will get exposed for, but buday is a really bad fighter. He is 4-0 in the ufc but he has looked horrible. His winstreak consists of 4 of the worst heavyweights on the roster & one horrendously bad robbery. That brzeski performance is just hilarious as brzeski is trash tier & yet he styled on buday.  Buday got outstruck like 2-1 every round and got pieced up everywhere. His other performances have been really flat besides his last one, but its against josh parisian so its meaningless. Now, Gaziev has many flaws himself. For as bad as buday’s striking defense is, i’d say gaziev’s is about the same if not worse. Pretty much every gaziev fight he gets rocked or hit a lot but he is able to win because he has death touch power. I’m not exaggerating this either, he showed it on dwcs but in his regional fights he is also one punch koing everyone brutally. So, for all his defensive flaws, his power is the equalizer. Buday hits hard but hes not really a dangerous guy; he will rock you and then push you to the cage and just clinch. Both guys have bad defense but I favor gaziev heavily because of the power. Buday has fought mostly guys who are smaller than him and now he's facing someone just as big as him. Watching him get rocked by that can on dwcs was a big red flag. I am curious to see how effective buday’s cage hugging will be because gaziev is a very good wrestler. He really just lay n prays on the ground but he is sneaky with his trips and he is very good at making his opponents stay down; ive seen gaziev outwrestle guys bigger than buday so as long as he can reverse the clinch He could get takedowns to counter the cage hugging. My main concern in this matchup is gaziev’s cardio. His cardio is really ****, im talking like 5-7 minutes of gas & we know buday can go three rounds comfortably. Gaziev also makes terrible grappling mistakes when tired. I do think gaziev gets him out of there based on what ive seen on tape. Gaziev getting rocked all the time is definitely concerning, but he has the power to put guys out and his wrestling has bailed him out multiple times when he is rocked and hurt. Buday has fought a lot of guys who gaziev would put out cold, and Buday relies on having a big size advantage and gassing them out or winning with wall n stall. I don’t think hes going to be able to do any of that here because he is facing someone just as big as him, a very good wrestler, and unlike anyone hes fought in the ufc, he is an actual ko threat; Buday gets hit just as much as gaziev does but he is facing horrible fighters with hardly any finishing threat. 


Brown vs Salikhov 
 Brown DEC

Crazy that this is the fight that's kicking off the card, really speaks to the quality of 296. This is a pretty tricky one because both of these guys are on the decline. Well, i'm not sure decline is the right word for brown but he has sort of plateaued; he's still beating everyone outside the top 15 and losing to everyone better, but he's stopped wow’ing me with his performances. The last impressive performance hes had was jared gooden, since then he lost to jdm (not a bad loss) and had 3 very close fights against people he should’ve beaten easily; the turman performance is aging horribly as we saw 2 weeks ago. My main problem with brown is his fight iq, Brown has a lot of flaws that his opponents always capitalize on yet he never fixes them. The biggest hole is his susceptibility to leg kicks; through 15 ufc fights, randy brown has still not figured out how to check a leg kick, all of his opponents use it against him & he has yet to make adjustments. He also makes fights much closer than they need to be. The best example is the turman fight, Brown is 10x better than him but he ended up winning a close decision because of leg kicks and trying to grapple with turman. He also could’ve very easily beaten trinaldo but instead he let him back up after dropping him & proceeded to win a very close (but clear) fight when he could’ve gotten the round 1 finish. At his best, Brown is a super dynamic striker with a tricky style due to his movement and frame. However, his fight iq makes fights much close than they should be. If this was 2-3 years ago, I would honestly pick salikhov but now I'm not so sure. I think he absolutely has a chance at winning this fight but he is declining a lot. Salikhov is a very high level sanda fighter; he is known for his lethal spinning moves but Salikhov can also fight a technical kickboxing match. Salikhov’s age has caught up with him though, his physical skills are starting to decline along with his cardio and chin. Dalby is a cardio monster so I won’t fault him there but against the leech he was tired after 7 minutes. Hes not chinny either but he doesn’t like to get hit anymore; he had some very bad reactions to being hit against fialho and dalby. I feel like brown has all the advantages here but he is going to give salikhov the fight he wants so this will be pretty close. His dynamic movement and speed should be enough here, Salikhov is getting slower & brown’s head movement could cause Salikhov to miss a lot and tire out later. However, Salikhov is the better technical striker so I worry he will make this close with leg kicks and his counter punching. If Salikhov was 2-3 years younger I would pick him but I really think age has finally caught up to him. Brow probably wins a very close decision but if he finally fights to the level I hold him to, then I think he can find a finish. 

* Edited at 12.11.2023, 11:28 PM ET *

Emmett vs Mitchell 
Mitchell SUB RD 3

Ive seen a lot of confidence in Emmett but I don’t know why people are so confident he ko’s bryce. For starters, while Emmett has some of the craziest power i’ve seen & hurts everyone he fights, he hasn’t finished anyone in 3 years. I also don’t know why so many people think he can defend bryce’s takedowns, Emmett has not faced a grappler in the ufc (besides Ilia but he only wrestled in round 5). Now, he does know how to wrestle, but we rarely ever see it & he has never fought someone with Bryce’s grappling style. Bryce is a very good chain wrestler & is just going to shoot and shoot until he gets you down. When he gets on top, bryce is a beast; he has good gnp but where he really shines is his bjj. I am a really big fan of his grappling style, he is always chaining submissions together and his techniques are very high level. The way he took Dan Ige’s back when almost falling off the back was insane. Bryce’s striking technique is very awkward but it works for him. He doesn’t do much damage but his striking is okay enough that he can hang with people. He won’t win if he tries to strike with emmett but I think he will be able to avoid the power shots for the most part and land some strikes; emmett gets hit a lot with his style. I don’t see bryce being able to land anything significant but I don’t think emmett is gonna sleep him easily. I just wish there was more footage of Emmett fighting grapplers, because there is no real gauge to see if emmett can handle bryce’s grappling. I’m going to assume emmett doesn’t have the bjj capabilities to handle bryce (seems pretty obvious) but maybe he will be able to reverse positions or get back up. However, I just have to assume that mitchell is gonna be able to drown him, love him or hate him, his grappling is pretty high level. The other reason I lean Mitchell is the decline of emmett. I’ve always thought Emmett was pretty overrated & now age is catching up to him. You could make the argument he lost to ige & he 100% robbed kattar, then he has lost his last two pretty convincingly. The ige and kattar fights were competitive but the yair and ilia ones not so much. Emmett did have his moments in both fights, but the majority of the fight was him getting his ass kicked, really badly. I have no idea how emmett has recovered so quickly but given that hes clearly been on a decline & going up against a style he has yet to face, I think Emmett is going to struggle. My main worry with bryce is gassing out but if he’s able to have grappling success like I think he is, then his cardio should be fine; when he's allowed to have his way Bryce can grapple 25 minutes no problem. 

Aldana vs Rosa  
Aldana DEC 

Idc about this fight, I guess aldana wins? I think she is very overrated, she has always failed to show up in her big fights & for someone who’s touted as one of the best boxers in the division she has had a lot of really close striking fights with much lower level fighters. Shes definitely got good striking but I don’t think it's amazing by any means. Aldana has had a lot of terrible performances but Rosa has had just as many; I thought she should have lost against washed santos and she hasn’t had a good performance ever since she lost to McMann. Rosa is pretty chubby (fights more at 145 than 135) & very slow. She just does a lot of nothing & has had some very close fights with people she should be comfortably beating. I won’t be shocked if this gets cancelled or moved to a catchweight because both girls are chronic weight missers. 

Garbrandt vs Kelleher  
Garbrandt KO RD 2

In his prime cody offered dynamic movements and crazy feints/footwork to set up bombs, which he would perfectly time and was sniping everyone at the time. After losing his chin and subsequently his confidence, we are left with a no volume statue. Cody still has his speed, athleticism, movements, and feints but he is not the same guy he was. He still has striking skills but cody just can’t fight technical; he is wayyy too patient now because he can’t afford to make mistakes & his output is just wild. I mean, he is having multiple rounds where hes not even landing 10 shots. Even when he tries to fight perfect, since hes not used to being technical, he still makes mistakes and gets rocked (see his last fight). He has been using his wrestling more which is nice but I hate this new version of cody; hes still good enough to win fights but he is not going to beat anyone higher than top 30 with this style. Luckily for him, Cody is getting an incredibly favorable matchup here. For starters, hes fighting someone more washed than him; Kelleher has always been a journeyman so not like hes had a fall from grace but even in his recent wins you could see a decline in his performances. Kelleher’s wins are against guys who arent ufc level and while he does beat them dominantly, his two recent wins he looked god awful on the feet and had to resort to wrestling to win. The cherry on top is the reason for kellehers layoff; He was suffering from disc herniations and nerve compressions in his neck. Not only did he need surgery for this, but there were serious doubts (expressed by kelleher) that he would ever fight again. Doing that at 37 is definitely not the best sign. So cody may not have a chin but he has retained his physician skills where Kellehers are only going to decline more after this surgery. Another detriment is this is at 135 lbs. Kelleher has never had weight issues but he has had many fights at 140 lb catchweights, only making 135 twice in the last three years. With the layoff and age maybe we start to see a struggle with the cut. Disregarding that, just looking at the style matchup this is very favorable for cody. Kelleher does have good power but he is a terrible striker; he has t-rex arms like cody but never adapted his style to fight around it, instead opting to be a grappler. Cody’s wrestling has never been in question and I doubt Kelleher will even be able to track him as theres a huge speed and footwork advantage. Honestly i’d say cody’s wrestling is better than brian’s anyways. Kelleher also said on the MMA hour that he wants to test cody’s standup; he might just be saying that but if true, thats just a horrible idea. Cody is so low volume but I really am feeling a KO here. Kelleher is very durable but I just see him reaching for a shot and getting countered. Of course, im not confident in all because cody is a glass cannon, but this is a very good matchup for him and I think he has to pull a stunt to lose this fight, all it takes is one lapse in defense and kelleher will sleep him with a hook.

* Edited at 12.11.2023, 11:28 PM ET *

Edwards vs Colby  
Edwards KO RD 4

This event is amazing but weirdly enough I really do not care for this main event. It will likely be a good fight but I just really dislike both guys so i'm not that invested in it. Despite my strong dislike for both, I am pretty confident in a Leon win here. One thing that does give me pause is the pace colby sets, as Leon is a technical fighter and never gets drawn into brawls. We’ve seen him struggle at times with brawlers (see the barberena fight) but he has been able to win because hes just better. I am worried about colby making it an ugly fight and clipping leon, as leon’s chin isn’t great. Despite not liking pressure, Leon’s striking is a level above colby’s. Colby is a decent striker but his pace and threat of the takedown is what really allows him to land strikes, his striking on a technical level is awful; he constantly leaves his chin up in the air and his striking technique is just all around pretty sloppy. Despite not getting a lot of finishes, Leon’s striking is lethal. He’s so good at using his range and his kicks are disgusting. He’s also a very good counter puncher & is always making reads on the fly. If the Usman fights somehow never happened I would be worried about colby’s wrestling but the rematch clearly showed that Leon has improved tremendously in that area. Colby is constantly shooting and making you defend so I do think he will be able to notch a few takedowns but not sure hes going to be able to get much meaningful control time. He is going to have to score takedowns early to win rounds because if leon defends the first 3-4 takedowns Colby is gonna start to fall behind. If colby can’t get any takedowns, I see him getting destroyed. He may be able to win moments by creating chaos but will all the defensive flaws in his striking game I can’t help but see leon finding something and putting him out. I also think it’s important to mention Colby spent the remainder of his prime on the sidelines, so we may see some ring rust in this one. He’s always been inactive but I have a weird feeling he might be washed now. 

Pantoja vs Royval II  
Pantoja SUB RD 1

Despite these two fighting 2.5 years ago, I don’t see this fight going much differently than the first one did. I will say, Royval’s chaotic style is always going to make him a serious threat; he is so good at finding a strike out of nowhere or creating some wild scramble. But, I don’t feel like hes really improved since their first fight, where pantoja clearly has. I don’t want to sound disrespectful but since their first fight brandon hasn’t really shown anything new to his game; just the same chaotic style. Besides the Nicolau fight (which was relatively short all things considered), royval hasn’t really blown me away with any of his fights. Against Bontorin he got outgrappled for the majority of the fight but won with a key sub attempt and by being busier on the feet & against schnell he got dropped badly before finding a win in classic fashion. Pantoja’s style hasn’t changed either but he showed that he can match royval’s pace for 5 rounds in his last fight and he showed vastly improved wrestling. The striking is always going to be scary as both guys throw defense to the wind and brawl. I favor pantoja because he has a better chin and crazy power but royval is so dangerous standing that you can’t count him out. However, he gets rocked every fight so I think pantoja will be able to land better shots (he will get touched up for sure tho). In the grappling I really don’t think its close. Royval’s scrambling ability is elite but he has shown multiple time that better grapplers (or better wrestler with solid bjj base in bontorin’s case) can roll with the scrambles and outcontrol him. Pantoja got the better of him in grappling exchanges in the first fight & I only think hes improved his already high level grappling. You can never count out royval because he is so dangerous but I am pretty confident pantoja just steamrolls him.


Shavkat vs Wonderboy  
Shavkat SUB RD 1

I bet wonderboy is really wishing he didn’t decline periera now. I really thought he was gonna win that one but this is an insanely bad matchup for him. Wonderboy is a legend but age is starting to catch up with him too (seems to be the theme of this card). He is elite as it gets when it comes to striking but his grappling is terrible. In his prime Wonderboy was either too good to track down or he did a good enough job of getting up but now his ground game is horrendous. Hes shockingly very good at surviving but wont get up off of his back and stays there the whole round. I think if holland wasn’t a ****** (or didn’t break his hand), he wouldve finished wonderboy with ease in round 1, but instead he just threw wildly when wonderboy was hurt; if he just slowed down a little bit, he would’ve slept him badly. Shavkat should try to grapple here but i’m a little worried he might try to test his standup. He can 100% win on the feet but it’s just giving wonderboy an advantage. My main worry if shavkat stands with him is walking into a head kick, as we’ve seen he kinda just walks forward with his chin up. However, hes shown a ridiculous chin thus far so I think he will be fine. Shavkat will walk wonderboy down on the feet so that should eliminate most of the head kick threat & we’ve seen recently that wonderboy’s ability to maintain distance has declined a lot recently. Burns and Belal were able to get him to the cage and maul him easily and we saw holland giving him a lot of issues early on. Shavkat doesn’t have the best takedowns but Wonderboy’s grappling is very poor so he shouldn’t have much of an issue. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ko’s wonderboy either but i think even if he does drop him, he will just go for a guillotine. 

Paddy vs Tony 
Paddy KO RD 2

I think paddy is terrible much like everyone else but, I think he makes this one look easy. Now, paddy and easy fight are two things that don’t go together but I really don’t know how anyone is giving ferguson a chance. I mean I get it, he has yet to lose to someone at this level and is a fan favorite but the tony of old doesn’t exist anymore. When he lost 4 in a row it was bad but at least he was losing to top 5 guys, his last two have been depressing to watch. He went from old veteran to a jobber off the couch in his last two; I see almost no resemblance to the fighter he used to be, tony tries to do his weird **** in the cage and that doesnt even work anymore. In his last fight, Tony looked abysmal. He still showed his weird movements and stance switching but he was getting tagged with every shot, missed everything, and basically gave the fight up after round 1. He ended the first round with a “knockdown” and then proceeded to do the worst imanari roll ive ever seen (his declining physicality makes his grappling attempts look horrid) which led to him selling the second round & then do a terrible leglock attempt that lost him the fight in round 3. Not to mention he took an ass whooping in those last two rounds. Now paddy isn’t exactly great either; he reminds me of dricus a little bit in all honesty. What I mean is you watch the tape and he looks horrible, constantly getting chinned, constantly making mistakes, and losing moments to terrible fighters, yet he finds a way to win. Paddy has decent enough skills everywhere that he has been able to win but I don’t see him going much higher than he is now. The striking in this fight will be interesting. Both should be able to land at will, with paddy’s nonexistent defense and tony just not being able to move out of the way, so it comes down to who hits harder. Sadly, I think thats paddy; watching his tape he actually throws pretty hard. His technique is okay but the real issue is just that chin. He was actually landing a lot on gordon but every time they got in the pocket gordon was landing overhands at will. Paddy may struggle with the awkwardness of tony but I think every time he lands clean it will have a big impact. I can see tony rocking him too but Paddy has actually shown a really good chin all things considered. The grappling should probably be free for paddy; his wrestling is terrible but he has shown some good judo throws before and will also attack subs to start a scramble. However, Tony has literally lost his last two fights by trying to grapple, so with the mistakes he makes I think he wil offer up a position (or submission) extremely easily. I could see this being a very boring decision where paddy outstrikes and outcontrols him to a boring UD, but I think paddy is going to come in aggressive to make a statement; he hasn’t fought in a year and everyone hates him for the gordon fight so he has a lot to prove. I was watching him throw down in the pocket with gordon & couldn’t help but think how badly tony would go out if paddy lands clean. Either way, paddy will get the finish, sub is more likely but I have a weird feeling about this one. 


Luque vs Garry 
 Garry KO RD 2

Pretty funny all the Garry drama has taken away from how good of a fight this is. Now, the allure of luque fights has gone away a little since that terrible brain injury but stylistically this has the makings of a war. Well, it could be a war or Garry just steamrolls luque. He did get back in the win column after suffering the worst beating of his career, but he looked very bad. It was good to see him finally mixing in wrestling (a little too late in his career for that tho) but I feel like he really only did it because RDA is very undersized at 170. I feel like part of it was ring rust but having a close fight with a nearly retired LW is not a good sign. Especially concerning because Luque has never tried to fight technical in his life. Luque is still a very good striker but he is one of those guys who I don’t think can fight technical. His skills are good but hes not great at having a chess match and his defense is still pretty bad so he can get sniped a lot. Now I am assuming this performance was him getting back in the swing of things but I worry that it could also be because Luque knows he can’t go back to his old ways. Before the neal fight, Luque was going to war every fight and has amassed an incredible amount of damage; it is possible that the brain hemorrhage has forced him to switch up his style. Regardless of why he fought the way he did, it is obvious he is going to have to go back to his old ways to win this one, whether he wants to or not. If he tries to play a low volume, tactical striking match then I think Garry is going to whoop his ass. Luque will be able to land but I don’t see him being able to beat garry in a kickboxing match; I know Garry is a prick but his striking is amazing. My favorite thing about his striking is his ability to make reads on the fly. For example, in the Song Kenan fight after getting dropped with the left hook, garry never once got caught with it again & perfectly avoided it every successive time. It will be interesting if luque tries to grapple, since we really havent seen garry tested there yet. However, I doubt he will be able to do much since hes not a wrestler by trade. If luque wants to win i think he is going to have to make this an ugly fight. Garry is a very good striker but when you make the fight ugly he starts to slip a little. It’s still very hard to catch him but we have seen that he leaves his chin out there a lot. I can definitely see luque hurting him because all flaws aside, he has some crazy power and throws with hate. However, I just simply think Garry is the better fighter; even if the neal fight never happened luque has a track record of losing to rangy kickboxers or better strikers than him & garry is both of that. I think luque is gonna lose badly but I hope he at least goes out on his shield; he can definitely hurt garry and make this a fun fight but I think its an uphill battle for him. 

* Edited at 12.11.2023, 11:29 PM ET *

@Kniferusty 

if there’s a cancellation in the next coming days I’m blaming you 

Edwards vs. Covington
Leon Edwards, DEC
Another head kick would be cool though

Garbrandt vs. Kelleher
Cody Garbrandt, TKO, R2
If Cody loses he should get a warehouse job

@Latrel Dog 

@gliese58i 

@DaWarBoss 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

@VicStrk 

And everyone. Guys, let's talk about this O'Neill vs. Lipski? I confess that I don't follow WMMA that much, but we know how alive the underdogs are in these fights. I read each arguments, some considering that O'Neill wins due to her oppressive and aggressive style, can fall and even win in a gnp, others saying how much Lipski has improved since she started training with Amanda Nunes and everything else. I haven't rewatched their fights yet because I haven't had time yet, so I'll watch them soon. But looking at the statistics, in her last 3 fights (Considering that this is what matters, since we all see a "new" Lipski, since she started training with Nunes) Lipski managed to defend all 19 attempted takedowns, which It looks very expressive. How do you see if this fight is on the feet and Lipski manages to defend all of O'Neill's takedowns, do you still see favoritism for O'Neill?

* Edited at 12.12.2023, 12:18 AM ET *

Ulanbekov vs. Durden
Cody Durden, DEC
G: Durden

I think she could be more dangerous then Weili because she 20lb heavier, Aldana has Multiple Ko’s(not TKO) on her record, and even if she isn’t the most dangerous women, the fact remain is she one of the few women who can sleep other women, even if he skills are lacking, that ability is a cheat code for WMMA and she get away with it

Also Rosa isn’t some super skilled fighter, Aldana is going to finish Rosa

Luque vs. Machado Garry
Vicente Luque, TKO, R2
G: Luque T: Garry

Emmett vs. Mitchell
Josh Emmett, TKO, R1
G: Emmett T: Mitchell W:

I'm also weirdly confident in Lipski lol, usually not a good idea with WMMA. But she's also a moderate dog so that's a good cushion.

champs need to shut up about going double champ my lord colby hasnt even won the title and hes talking about strickland and leon is looking at middleweight with 2 title defences (if he takes colby out) you dont get to jump another divisions title line when you have 1 win against your own top 5

@DamienHandel420 

I never disagreed that Aldana is gonna win, I doubt she finishes Rosa who is pretty damn tough. But Rosa's activity is just lacking, Aldana if not fighting Nunes is high activity, big and has sting.

My point was P4P no women is more of a killer than Weili Zhang not even a argument now that Nunes is retired. Imagine a Nunes vs Zhang fight at a catchweight somehow, tell me that wouldn't be P4P UFC female #1 n #2 

* Edited at 12.12.2023, 6:56 AM ET *

Edwards vs. Covington
Leon Edwards, DEC
**** Colby, Edwards is the man bring it home

Pantoja vs. Royval II
Brandon Royval, TKO, R3
So many unknowns with flyweight, Royval literally has the Dawg in his name

Rakhmonov vs. Thompson
Shavkat Rakhmonov, SUB, R2
Card of the year said it for months! That said Shavkat is gonna strike for a round before subbing Wonderboy with ease - THE CHAMP IS HERE

Ferguson vs. Pimblett
Tony Ferguson, TKO, R1
As a UK fan I want nothing more than Tony to put Paddy out cold (Don't hate Paddy just not much a fan nowadays)

Luque vs. Machado Garry
Vicente Luque, TKO, R2
Seen a few fancy an upset here and I am among them, if not this fight Ian Garry's going to get caught being overconfident and I think its this fight

Emmett vs. Mitchell
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
We love a wrestler

Garbrandt vs. Kelleher
Brian Kelleher, TKO, R2
Cody lookin slick last time out against Trevin Jones but still looks like he could go stiff any moment, up steps Brian BOOM Kelleher

Menifield vs. Jacoby
Dustin Jacoby, DEC
Dustin probably takes over later the fight goes

Ulanbekov vs. Durden
Cody Durden, DEC
Tough one but Cody has that Dawg in him since he fought Mokaev

Fili vs. Almeida
Andre Fili, DEC
Close fight imo

Gaziev vs. Buday
Shamil Gaziev, DEC
Buday may have reached the end of the line when it comes to fighting bum heavyweights

Brown vs. Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov, DEC
Good underdog