UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Potentially Williams or Shayilan

Finally getting to watch some film of Amorim. Very rarely do I feel confident enough in an inexperienced WMMA prospect with little cage time but holy **** she's probably going to wreck Sam Hughes.

Williams is going to **** a lot of people out of money who are going to take him by decision. Sherman has no appreciable skill like Brzeski and even less heart. He's going to quit at some point in the middle of the 2nd round and will get finished in the 3rd. Sherman has absolutely no shot.

Shayilan is the one of those 3 I'm least confident in because both him and Garcia seem very hot and cold. The simplest way I can word it is I've liked way more of what I've seen from Shayilan than from Garcia. Shayilan is actually well rounded and has some skills where as the only thing I think Garcia really has going for him is he's a dog. 

I'm taking skill over toughness 9/10. 

I think Pyfer is the one who could wreck it. GM3 has his own weird mojo which lets him win fights he maybe shouldn’t.

Very true but is he going to be able to eventually break and submit Pyfer? I severely doubt it but it's by no means impossible. GM3 couldn't even convincingly beat a guy like Eryk Anders by decision let alone someone like Jotko. He is all but completely reliant on a sub to win. You can never count GM3 out but I'd give Pyfer at least a 50/50 chance, if not better, of beating everyone GM3 has beaten since he got starched by Khamzat.

1. Stoltzfus and Fabinski?
Pyfer by murder.

2. Muradov?
A solid fight for Pyfer where I'd still pick him. This was a very crafty win for GM3 who got away with a crotch shot and an eye poke that deflated Muradovs momentum (not calling it luck, just stating facts).

3. Bruno Silva?
Would be a great fight for Pyfer where I think it would be 50/50. Silva looked bloated/out of shape and didn't seem anywhere close to healthy when he fought GM3. I think if they re-matched the result is probably different.


The longer this fight goes, the better it is for GM3 but I don't think this fight reaches a 3rd round. 

Ceerod 1.5 lbs miss. I have a feeling that was intentional

Font vs. Yanez
Font, DEC
Jab jab jab jab jab jab jab jab jab.

Holland vs. Ponzinibbio
Holland, KO/TKO
8 inches of reach should keep Holland far enough away from Ponzi's power shots, which is pretty much his only path to victory at this point in his career. Ponzi is very tough but also very hittable and I think Holland puts him away in the 3rd.

Rosas Jr vs. Rodriguez
Rosas JR, DEC
Another razor close fight that I think will be a split decision for Rosas. I will honestly be extremely impressed if Rosas gets a finish here. CeeRod is actually pretty good. Phenomenal match-making IMO but outside of getting completely dominated and losing a round 10-8 that forces a draw, the judges are going to give this one to Rosas and keep the hype train a live. Another fight I could easily see being a split decision. 

Gastelum vs. Curtis
Curtis, DEC
Razor close fight but there's very few fighters at MW I'm taking over the Action Man at this point. Gastelum has 3 split decision losses and is all but impossible to finish but he's fighting a much more accurate and active striker with phenomenal TDD. Gastelum can win this fight but I think he'll basically need everything to go right for him to pull this off. Curtis is a really hard guy to try and beat coming off a 20 month layoff for a guy not known as a finisher in the UFC. Gastelum's greatest strength is his boxing but unfortunately, he's fighting someone whos boxing is just as good if not better than his. Better than 50% chance IMO this fight is a split decision. 

Waterson-Gomez vs. Pinheiro
Waterson-Gomez, DEC
Karate Hottie is under .500 in her last 10 fights and is a split decision away from being on a 5 fight losing streak. She hasn't fought in almost a year and if I remember correctly she was scared she might have to retire due to injuries. Very little confidence in this pick because she's 37 years old but she's the better striker and has good TDD. Pinheiro has had an even longer layoff so I could look really dumb here if she's mad a lot of improvement. However, even after considering the context of MWG's age, layoff and losing streak I'd feel even less confident picking Pinheiro. She hasn't fought in over year and I think going from fighting Sam Hughes to MWG is a massive jump in QOC.

Meerschaert vs. Pyfer
Pyfer, KO/TKO
I'm originally from South Philly so GM3 and his crafty late vet submissions can kick rocks for an evening. Full disclosure this is a homer pick from me but I genuinely believe Pyfer is an above average MW who absolutely has enough skill to eventually be ranked. 

Williams vs. Sherman
Williams, KO/TKO
Round 2 or 3 after Sherman gasses and is ready to go home and wait for a call from BKFC.

Calvillo vs. Godinez
Calvillo, DEC
50/50 coin flip. Calvillo is 35 and on a bad losing streak but she's been fighting the best fighters in the division. Loopy seems a bit over-rated to me at this point if I'm being brutally honest.

Ogden vs. Bahamondes
Bahamondes, KO/TKO
This fight is probably going to be closer than people think. Ogden is going to really struggle with Bahamondes length and the versatility of his strikes. I think Ogden might be able to survive to the bell with more gas in the tank since this is at catchweight but Bahamondes striking is so good that I can't confidently predict that happening.

Garcia vs. Nuerdanbieke
Nuerdanbieke, DEC
Garcia is a weight bully who isn't even good. I won't be surprised at all if Nuerdanbieke gets a finish. He's the much more well rounded fighter and 6 of his 10 losses are by sub, something Garcia has never done. Nuerdanbieke beat TJ Brown and I think Brown is easily better than anyone Garcia has beaten so far.

Hughes vs. Amorim
Amorim, SUB
Hughes is actually a decent fighter but the grappling/wrestling mismatch here is enormous. She's probably not getting back up once she goes down. Her path to victory is surviving the first round and touching Amorim enough that she gets lost in the flow of the fight. Amorim doesn't have much cage time but her experience in BJJ and grappling should carry her here. 

Absolutely intentional. I'm telling you that fights going to be a split decision. 

Hughes vs. Amorim
Sam Hughes, SUB, R2
Get that win Sam❣👊

@foppa actually now I don’t think it is. He said he’s taking the hour to cut the rest of the weight. I disagree with him doing that since he already looked very drained first weigh in

Yeah I'm watching the weigh in show now too. I completely agree with you but a lot of young guys just can't take the 50% hit to their purse so I get it. 

It’s usually only 20-30%. 50% would be if you’re a repeat offender & miss big. Even mana only had 30% for his third ufc weight miss 

why would you have thought a 1.5 lbs miss was intentional in the first place? when guys miss intentionally its usually 3-4 lbs at least, otherwise they're draining themselves extra for no reason when they are already planning to miss. 

Keeehrist how the **** does Alex make 185.
Man has two hollow legs he replaces for weigh ins.  Man has titanium alloy bird bones.
Man has a super power. 
No thank you said every middle weight who can’t wrestle effectively. 

@jupiter to come in heavier to make it harder to be takendown or grappled

Also ceerod missed on second go, 137 this time :/

Jorge is in better shape than he was for the Colby fight