UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I think this will be a repeat of the assuncao vs Cody fight. Cody is gonna be faster looking for the ko shot, trevin will be doing nothing looking to counter, and whoever lands the first bomb wins.

Cody always loses when it is a brawl now. Jones always wins when it is a brawl and is not as technical

How many minutes do you think it takes for Bo Nickal to beat Jamie Pickett?

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Check my boys out and leave a like/comment if you got a minute!

 “What’s happening everyone, Me, Dana & Hunter are still cool as f*ck,” Till wrote, referencing UFC executives Dana White and Hunter Campbell. “I asked UFC 2 remove me just 2 sort some other sh*t for the foreseeable, They happily agreed to release me out of contract which I appreciate. I’m not going anywhere, got big plans to execute & I’ll be back."

Soo.. he's in the UFC still he's just leaving the Usada testing pool to "sort some **** out" and then he'll be back?

I just wish Cody could comprehend what a straight punch was, I mean I'm sure his coaches are tired of going "Alright Cody we're gonna start off with some jabs and crosses" and then Cody just throwing hooks hard as ****. That Cruz performance was amazing, I've never seen such a downfall afterwards. 

Jones vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, TKO, R2
Hoping im wrong though I expect Jones to be slower than we expect. Don't really see this fight being to challenging for Gane as I believe he actually will have superior technical striking which will stop Jones from imposing his wrestling. Should pick Jones apart until we see a stoppage if this speed advantage proves true.

Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko, SUB, R4
Not overthinking this one. Grasso is skilled but everything she can do Valentina can do better. Add on the pressure from the new up and comers and I think we see a dominant display in the grappling.

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov, DEC
Put Shavkat in my parlays last week, however the more Neal film I watch the more concerned I am. He has reallllyyy crisp boxing and some tree trunk legs(90% take down defense) which should give Shavkats wrestling some trouble. I do think Shavkat can grind him down in the clinch and eventually impose some ground and pound though with Neals durability I do not foresee a finish. Hoping Shavkats non-existent head movement has improved else we could see an upset.

Gamrot vs. Turner
Jalin Turner, SUB, R3
I think we saw some flaws of Gamrots game exposed in his last bout with Benny. Now I realize Benny and Turner are on different levels however Gamrots inability to impose his grappling plans has given me pause. Turner has exceptional 78%TTD and at 6'3 taking him down and keeping him there is generally a tough task. I see him tagging Gamrot for two rounds as Gamrot fails to implement his grappling, eventually going for a desperate takedown where he is choked out.

Pickett vs. Nickal
Bo Nickal, SUB, R1
Going to be a murder enough said.

Garbrandt vs. Jones
Trevin Jones, TKO, R2
bye bye Cody, tough stretch for Jones against tough competition these last 3-4 fights . I see Jones getting back on track against a lesser opponent, tagging Cody all day long and sending him into the sunset. This will be my underdog play of the card.

Brunson vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R1
-250 is a little wide imo for this bout however I do believe in the hype of Du Plessis round 1 ko incoming and we see Du Plessis is truly legit.

Machado Garry vs. Song
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R1
Garry ITD is a lock, Song has a glass chin he will be going to sleep.

Martinez vs. Saaiman
Cameron Saaiman, TKO, R2
I think the UFC would like Saaiman to win hence this favorable matchup. Martinez isn't horrible however all those close decisions tell us a lot about who the UFC would like to win this one.

Penne vs. Ricci
Tabatha Ricci, SUB, R2
My lock of the night especially at the current price. Ricci should not loose to a 40 year old and I would seriously question her ceiling if she is to loose. Honestly I see no path to victory for Penne.

Basharat vs. Blackshear
Farid Basharat, TKO, R1
Round 1 too incoming, man these Basharats are so skilled and well rounded future contender being given a nice warmup fight here

Jones ML 5 units

Jones vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, TKO
Can JJ offensively wrestle?

Trevin Jones last three opponents weren't scrubs either.  Those 3 guys are tough outings for anyone not having a Nurmagomedov last name.  I remember Javid's fight with Trevin very clearly, Javid respected Trevin's KO power the entire time even in the 3rd round.  Trevin was still throwing bombs at him and Javid fought a smart fight to get the decision victory.  Hard not to like Trevin by TKO here.

I also remember when he sparked Timur Valiev out like it was yesterday, the man has dynamite in his hands.

* Edited at 03.01.2023, 12:36 PM ET *

Seriously can not believe Im going to Vegas for this tomorrow man, surreal. LFG

I would like to put other things than only units in her... no more to say... GOD BLESS YOU ALL


LET'S GET IT!!!


#newkidontheblock

I like FGTD at +175 in Gamrot v Turner. Under 1.5 is also a possibility though at dog odds. I think both these guys go hard and fast from the start but peter off in energy the longer a fight goes. 
Gamrot has never been finished, Turner has never been submitted. Also I like to not pick a side here at current odds since this is a potentially good livebet spot. Decent chance that the tides of fortune shifts in this once. Turner likes to attack the body and Gamrot shoots explosively from a long distance a lot of the time and generally doesn't set up his shots. He usually succeeds because of how fast and explosive he is and his great chainwrestling abilities. That's a very taxing style though that makes him slow down a bit over time which will lower his chances of finishing. Turner is known to slow down sometime in rd2 if he hasn't found the finish and if Gamrot gets him down early and mauls him that will drain his gastank even faster. 

Best case for Gamrot to finish early is to catch a kick and get an easy takedown that way right off the bat. For Turner obviously he'll try to find a killshot with the hands to get an early stoppage.

I did look at Gamrot by dec +275 as well but as I said I want to keep livebet options open.

* Edited at 03.01.2023, 1:47 PM ET *

Garbrandt vs. Jones
Cody Garbrandt, TKO, R1
I believe that the TKO losses in recent years have made many forget that Garbrandt is undoubtedly one of the main heavy hitters in bantamweights. Trevin Jones is a much better fighter than a 13-9 record might indicate (9 losses, but 3 losses by split decision) and despite being on a 3-fight losing streak and with a 1-3 record (1 NC) in UFC. Fighters like Valuev, Bautista, Saidyokub, Basharat and Barcelos are a great level of competition. Cody Garbrandt has had a year of rest (between 2 Yahya pull offs and a slight passage through the operating room himself) but the main thing is that in that year he has worked constantly in the UFC PI and training at Xtreme Couture with Coach Dwight Cooper and with fighters like Valiev, Said Nurmagomedov, Dan Ige and Basharat brothers as main sparring partners. I consider that the balance for Garbrandt Weapons is not to get into un-necessary Brawls, but also not to be so waiting and in a against the fence position as in his fights vs. Font (3 round onwards) and KKF. Rather, the ideal is to launch your offense, in a dynamic way and at the same time choose intelligent combinations of strikes and mix with wrestling when necessary (something like Aaron Pico has done to get out of 4-3 record where he was at some point in his career).

Jones was hurt early against Timur and Barcelos put a beatdown on Trevin a few months ago. I think if Cody comes out early to throw body kicks (more difficult to counterpunch than calf kicks or tight kicks) and throw heat with his hands he can get the TKO win, a strategy similar to his fight with Mizuyaki would even help him: Throwing a slap or feint hook before to land the power right hook to the face, this process can also be replicated with a fake jab for close the distance to the hook. The featuring Main Event of Preliminaries in a UFC PPV is synonymous that the UFC still has faith in Garbrandt who is a former champion of the promotion: A victory on Saturday is not a bounce back scenario as such but it is a sign to keep an active year look for another fight in June or July in another PPV or as a co-main in a Weekly card against an opponent like Rani Yahya (it would be the third rescheduling of that fight), Kyung Ho Kang or Arce (another rescheduling). A defeat is practically (and in the case of KO loss) a synonym that it's time to retire. That Trevin also has some respectable KO power on his hands, and this will be a good test for Garbrandt's maturity this year away and how his work with Xtreme Couture has been: A great Knockout artist should always respect what his opponent may have good KO Power and make that part of their strategy: There are plenty examples like Emmett-Stephens, Pico-Corrales or Soldic- Du Plessis where a Heavy hitter thought he could get the job done and was knocked out by a fighter who also had considerable KO power. 

It's an interesting scenario for Garbrandt: The Matchmakers put him a replacement opponent for the PPV card and put him
him in the Main Event of Preeliminaries. It's like get a win or go home, and if Garbrandt understood the message he just has to let his hand go, combine with multilevels kicks and use wrestling if necessary.

* Edited at 03.01.2023, 1:55 PM ET *

Pretty dog **** fight but I'm absolutely flabbergasted at the number of people that think Trevin Jones is just going to flatten Garbrandt. 

Like I know Rob Font has pillow hands but he hit Garbrandt 176 times over 5 rounds. Im not at all saying Garbrandt has a great chin but I think people are reading a little too much into him getting starched at 125lbs. If you dont have a great chin in one weight class its going to be exponentially worse if you try to move down. 

I'm finding it extremley hard to believe Trevin Jones is the guy that sends Cody packing and am very much leaning toward it being the other way around. 

I’m not seeing it either. I’m a big fan of trevin but he lacks the output and killer instinct to beat Cody. He hasn’t been the same guy since the saidyokub loss