UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Think for the comain and main I'll just do under 2.5 . 

As usual Tapology pretty much dead at prime time in the US. Something I still don't quite understand.

* Edited at 05.13.2022, 5:50 PM ET *

Chookagian had 1 maybe 2 inches of height on ribas. Idk what people were talking like chookagian is some giant 

Spann sucks. One of the chinnest fighters in the ufc 

Plus, fortis MMA so FADE

It weird because the stats say Chook is 5 foot 9 and Ribas is 5 foot 3 so a 6 inch height advanage, Before the weigh ins that all you go off, But looking at the face off you are  correct, they isn't much between them in height, I don't get how the UFC can be this wrong in heights

My guess from looking at their faceoff is that Ribas is actually 5'5, not 5'3. That would make it a 4 inch difference. Certainly hard to believe there is a 6 inch height difference.

Sherdog has her listed as 5'4 for what it's worth. But add half an inch to that and subtract half an inch from Chook and you have 4 inches difference and not 6.

* Edited at 05.13.2022, 6:30 PM ET *

I'ma take the plus money on Jan. No way Rakic finishes em and no way he beats him by decision. Jan will wrestle , watch. 

Rakic 90% tdd tho

I’m also biased because I truely think Jan is overrated. No disrespect to him but I don’t think he’s THAT great

I just don't Rakic finishing him nor going 5 rounds. 

Ahh. I mean the way rakic has been fighting, this could end up being a really boring grapple fest for 25 min

Błachowicz vs. Rakić
Jan Błachowicz, DEC
Everyone is sleeping on Jan. Rakić is very good but I think Jan will mix in some takedowns here and get the win. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Jan clip Rakić with his heavy punches.

Spann vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba, TKO, R1
Spann is just a busted prospect at this point. I like him because he has so much potential but Cutelaba is gonna run through him. Will Ion come out more technical and calm this time or will he gas out trying to go for a finish?

Smolka vs. Grant
Davey Grant, TKO, R1
Davey Grant has huge power and is someone that is becoming pretty good. Louis Smolka has very good bjj but his wrestling is terrible and Grant will be too strong. Grant KO coming.

Chookagian vs. Ribas
Katlyn Chookagian, DEC
Chookagian makes this look pretty easy. Ribas coming up a weight class is a bad idea.

Camacho vs. Torres
Frank Camacho, TKO, R1
Both guys are gonna trade bombs early and I think Frank wins. I'm not banking on another DWCS alum and Torres is not very good. He will be out of the UFC before quickly.

Hadley vs. Nascimento
Jake Hadley, DEC
Allan could get a sub off of his back but I think Hadley will just control him for most of the time.

Araujo vs. Lee
Viviane Araujo, DEC
I think Araujo could win this fight if she goes for takedowns because Lee had absolutely horrible TDD. She gets taken down by everyone. Vivi has terrible cardio though. Pickem fight imo.

Johnson vs. Patrick
Michael Johnson, TKO, R1
Patrick is a quitter. Give me the legend MJ here.

Candelario vs. Taira
Tatsuro Taira, SUB, R2
Carlos isn't UFC caliber. Taira seems like he's way too one dimensional as well but he should be able to win here with his grappling and I think he subs Carlos eventually.

Maximov vs. Petroski
Nick Maximov, DEC
Maximov has way better cardio. He's a dog. Petroski isn't good. Max rolls.

Jandiroba vs. Hill
Virna Jandiroba, DEC
Virna has very good bjj. I like Virna. Hill is a gatekeeper at this point.

Not finding a lot of bets this card, hoping to see some nice livebets.

Who really overestimates Jan? Before losing his title as the big favorite to Glover,
he was only a big favorite in his UFC career in his fight against Igor Pokrajac.
Even though he's approaching the 20 fight mark.
I remember everyone laughing at me when I said Jan would win the title against Reyes.

Alan Patrick looking like grandfather time. 38 years old

Thinking about changing my pick from chookagian to ribas. Ribas doesn't look that much smaller & she usually wins if you can't ko her 

Błachowicz vs. Rakić
Aleksandar Rakić, DEC
49-46 Rakic, he gets wobbled in the 2nd/3rd round

Viviane Araujo vs Andrea Lee 

Araujo DEC 

The odds for this fight are currently at a pickem and i think thats pretty indicative of how this fight is going to go because I dont see an area where either fighter has the clear advantage (except for cardio but more on that later). Both are very high volume on the feet; Andrea has a good muay thai base and throws pretty absurd volume (attempted 210 strikes in 10 minutes in her last fight) where viviane tries to take your head off with every shot she throws. Viviane is hittable, but she is good at landing shots while getting hit and also has the power advantage; when she hits girls, they respect her power. In the grappling, both are very well versed as well. Andrea lee has a judo and bjj background will viviane just has bjj. Andrea’s biggest weak point is her tdd. Despite being a good grappler, she is not very good against solid wrestlers (or just anyone who offensively wrestles) and i have been very impressed with vivanes takedowns. Shes good at level changing and one area where she gets a lot of takedowns is by catching your leg off of a kick. Now,  andrea throws a lot of kicks as well so i could definitely see viviane getting her down through that. My biggest worry for viviane is her gas tank. She almost always gasses out in the third round and ive seen her breathe heavy as early as the middle of the second before. This is even scarier when you factor in that andrea has 4 3rd round finishes and shes been on a nice finishing streak. However, those are by sub and i dont really see her subbing viviane but if she gets tired its definitely a possibility. I think this fight is gonna be super close but very exciting. 

Michael Johnson vs Alan Patrick 

Johnson KO RD 2 

It is impossible to feel confident in michael johnson winning a fight but you gotta think he stands a decent chance at winning. Patrick is pretty much at the end of his career and is one of the worst fighters on the roster rn. But, johnson can quite literally beat and lose to anyone. He should have a massive advantage on the feet. Johnson is known for his hand speed and movement. Hes very quick and his shots are hard to read because they really are lightning fast. He doesnt set them up and just lets them fly. Patrick, surprisingly, is not a bad striker, but he throws 0 volume. He will throw a weird and varied arsenal of strikes from flying knees to spinning backfists, hell, ive even see him throw a headkick while on his back. However, he will throw shots one at a time. His main game is wrestle and lay on top of you. In his old age, he has not been able to impose his game anywhere really. On the feet, he still keeps the same offense, but now he doesnt take shots very well anymore and he literally runs into punches at times (see the holtzman or jones fights). I think johnson should (key word, should) **** him up but it wouldnt shock me in the slightest if he somehow blows this. Patrick also has not been able to implement his wrestling game at all. In his current losing streak, hes gone 1/14 on takedown attempts. Johnson actually cant wrestle to save his life nor does he have even the slightest ground game, but he has historically good takedown defense. Now yes, johnson did lose his last fight because of wrestling but clay guida is 1. Far better than patrick and 2. His takedowns consisted of him picking up johnson and slamming him whereas patrick is more of an ankle biter and tries to double leg or trip you to get you down. You also have to question patrick’s willingness to actually fight. After losing to jones (idc about the eyepoke, he was well on his way to getting koed) he resigned to fight him and then ducked him right before. He also did the same to johnson, as they were supposed to fight last week but patrick decided to watch his teammate do bronx fight, instead of fighting on the date he was supposed to. Plus, he also looked like death on weigh ins. I really dont trust johnson but this should be a winnable fight for him. 

Virna Jandiroba vs Angela Hill 

Hill DEC 

It pains me to pick against virna as she is one of my favorite female fighters, but i think this is a very bad matchup for her. I also think the odds are off on this fight as this is a great matchup for hill; shes finally facing someone who cant strike so we (hopefully) dont have to worry about judges robbing her despite clearly winning. Virna’s hands are improving with each fight, but hill is one of the best strikers at 115 and virna is already not very comfortable on the feet so i think she could be in trouble here; i mean anyone who gets significantly outstruck (at least 20 strikes more than virna) by mackenzie dern clearly needs to do some work. Virna’s bjj is disgustingly good however. If she gets hill down at any point, I think she is very live for a finish. Grapplers are usually a very bad matchup for hill but, she has shown very good tdd throughout her career. Now, interestingly enough, she has been taken down in 5 of her last 6 fights but shes not getting held down for very long and even when she is getting taken down, her opponents are never notching more than 2 takedowns. This is slightly concerning because shes been getting taken down by strikers and grapplers alike. I also don’t trust virna’s gas tank all that much as she has slowed down before and if she slows down on the feet, angela will piece her up badly. Greasy fight and it wouldnt shock me if hill gets subbed or clearly wins the fight and gets robbed but, I dont see many dogs winning this week and shes one of the few that I think has a good chance. 

Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario 

Taira SUB RD 2

So candelario missing weight makes me more confident in taira winning, but not so confident this fight goes the distance now. My reasoning for candelario surviving is the fact that he has shown quite good sub defense throughout his career, but, taira seems to be a promising prospect with a nasty grappling game. Candelario is actually quite a solid fighter and has a very well rounded game. On the feet, hes got good volume and has very fast hand speed. I think hes the better striker but he has shown to take a shot to give a shot. I like taira’s striking, I think hes got good technique and actually holds some decent power, but i really dont like the volume; hes much more technical and likes to pick his shots. His striking isnt as bad as I originally thought after rewatching tape, but hes likely going to be at a disadvantage. I think this is a very favorable matchup for him because of carlos’s tdd. Carlos is a black belt in his own right, and has also shown a very solid wrestling/get up game but his takedown defense is almost nonexistent. In his last three fights im pretty sure i counted 15 takedowns against him; basically, you can take him down at will and with relative ease. Now, as I said, his get up game is actually very impressive, despite being taken down he almost never gets held down for longer than 30 seconds at a time. Im not sure how effective he will be here or how long he will be able to keep getting up this time because of his cardio. Taira also looks like a ******* beast on the ground. He is a shootboxer and is like glue when he gets on you. Even if you get back up, hes going to chain wrestle you. His ground game is the most impressive part however. Hes very dominant on top and has very good bjj transitions. Overall, I think this fight may be closer than the odds would indicate, but im sticking with taira because carlos had two very bad weight cuts back to back and has already shown to not have the best cardio so i think he will get out worked. It wouldnt surprise me if he pulls off an upset here tho. 

Nick Maximov vs Andre Petroski 

Maximov SUB RD 2 

I think this could (hopefully) be an interesting maximov fight. Hes not a bad fighter, but hes terribly boring. I think its a stretch to assume he will get a finish but there is quite a big skill discrepancy here plus petroski has a bad gas tank. If we see a striking battle (as we sometimes do when two wrestlers/grapplers fight one another), I think i would actually have to favor petroski, although his striking is really terrible. I have to give him the advantage because maximov doesnt really throw anything; most of his fights he will stand for very short periods of time before shooting for a takedown. Petroski’s striking is horrendous, but at least hes throwing volume. Watching him strike is actually laughable, as he has two weapons in his arsenal; a jab and an overhand right. Petroski lives and dies by the overhand right. In the Yaozong fight, he literally spammed the overhand right 5 times in a row. It looked like when you're playing street fighter but dont know the controls so you spam the same move over and over again. On the ground, the advantage is all maximov. Petroski was also a college wrestler and is also a black belt (from renzo gracie nonetheless) but, I think maximov is better everywhere. As boring as he may be, he is a very good wrestler. He will constantly readjust if he misses the first takedown and is a good chain wrestler with good cardio. Despite being a black belt and rolling with many high level grapplers on a daily basis, i dont really know how good petroski actually is on the ground. Watching the yaozong fight, i was quite unimpressed with how easily someone as bad as yaozong was able to scramble and get out of the majority of andres subs. If hes having trouble finishing people as bad as gillmore and haozong, I dont see him giving maximov much trouble. Finally, theres the fact that andre doesnt have the best gas tank and, from his two losses, appears to be a bit of a quitter. Against jeffery, he got hit with a elbow that cut him pretty bad, and then he kind of gave up there. On TUF, he got “headbutted” (not really) and kept *****ing about it instead of fighting and eventually got finished at his own game. I think its bold to assume that maximov will actually try and finish a fight, but if he pushes andre, I think he will tire him out and get a finish