UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Błachowicz vs. Rakić
Aleksandar Rakić, TKO, R4
Let's see if the LHW division will allow for changing of the guard or if this will just be the mini-HW division

Smolka vs. Grant
Davey Grant, TKO, R2
Fight feels like a mis-match, but maybe I'm wrong

Chookagian vs. Ribas
Amanda Ribas, SUB, R3
Picking Ribas because I want her to win, but realistically if there isn't some weird or wild scramble and she doesn't catch Katlyn in some quick submission, I think she gets 30-27'd by a slighly more aggresive version of what we saw in the 274 co-main

Johnson vs. Patrick
Michael Johnson, TKO, R1
Johnson's entire record is like if someone just sat there flipping a coin for his Wins and Losses. So I flipped a coin for this prediction

@check that’s probably the smartest way to pick Johnson fights TBH

1.83 Rakic is a good bet, that I would definitely get behind.

I'm trying to pick Camacho vs Torres, I guess I have to lean Camacho based on experience but I only have the contender series fight for Torres and some 10-11 record bum he finished in 30 secs before that.

Torres seems to have pretty decent striking but stands quite squared and I have the feeling from this very limited footage he prefers a technical fight and Camacho could def make it a dog fight and/or challenge his grappling skills with takedowns in this one.

This is the kind of fight I only make a pick on because of a personal rule to make a pick for every fight on cards I make picks on.

I really don’t trust Camacho either after being sparked in like 40 seconds by Justin Jaynes and the 2 year layoff Justin James ended up losing 4 in a row and getting cut even lost one on regional scene since that Torres I also don’t trust but he I do more than Camacho, Camacho should grapple but he won’t he just likes to stand and bang and I see Torres sparking him early a lot of red flags on both fighters should be intriguing 

Torres competition is just sooooo sus tho. Even the guy he beat on dwcs was pretty **** plus he won via eye poke lol. It’s such a hard fight to pick but I honestly think Camacho would be favorite if he didn’t get sparked by jaynes; that loss has aged horribly plus Jaynes is a 145er koing a former 170

Exactly kinda recency bias but hat jaynes fight but Torres was a underdog in the DWCS fight and Englund was meant to be pretty good before that fight it’s such a wierd fight to bet on 

Early Prelims 
**Keep in mind I am looking at stats and not past tape review.

Maximov v Petrovski        Id be willing to be that this fight goes over 2.5 rounds
Maximov came off Dana White's Contender Series and is 8-0, and has proven himself in both UFC official fights. He edged out a split decision against Soriano, albeit all because those takedowns. He could not convert them to submission attempts. He gets a lot of takedowns statistically (11 takedowns against Soriano; most recent fight) Petrovski will be difficult to submit because his ground game is solid (stats say he has 4 takedowns in all his two fights at pro, and has a takedown average of 3.8.)  That is why I think this fight is not worth the moneyline. Although Maximov has a 3 in reach advantage, I still believe the stats.
Both fighters average fight time is well above 12 minutes.


Tatsuro v Candelario  Fade this fight.

Tatsuro has competed in Vale Tudo. He is 10-0-0. His last 3 fights were won in the first round by submission, with the only fight to go to UD in 2020. He has a 2 inch reach advantage with proven BJJ/grappling skills. His weakness will be power and against a striker who is technical with good take down defense.
UFC debuts can be iffy. The travel to USA for foreign fighters can wear them down coupled with exhausting de-hydration for weigh-ins. Nevertheless, Tatsuro is a natural flyweight and able to make weight easy. Still, the butterflies of fighting in the UFC for the first time (lol) makes betting on debut fighters a very risky proposition if you use ML. Carlos Candelario is making his UFC debut as well, coming off DWCS. His last 3 bouts went to a unanimous decision win, with a split decision loss in 2021 at DWCS against Victor Altamirano. I could not find any stats on Tatsuro as far as his striking. This is one fight I would just fade.


***  Fun Fact: Jiu Jitsu actually started in Japan, but Brazilian Vale Tudo practicioners added submission styles to it, and it became Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. You can say the Japanese and Brazilians exchanged quite hefty martial arts cultures! I find it really cool how these two cultures were able to learn from each other and now we have Vale Tudo in Japan, and BJJ in Brazil and worldwide.***



Jandiroba v Hill   I'd be willing to be Jandiroba wins.

Jandiroba is coming off a loss to Ribas. Hill is coming off a loss to Lemos. Jandiroba is two years younger,  has a 2.14 TD Average, 76% takedown defense, and 1.4 submission average.
Hill has 0.57 TD Average, 30% take down accuracy, and 78% takedown defense. Hill has a 0.1% submission average. Their striking defense is within 5% of eachother, 57% Jandiroba v 62% Hill. They both land as much as they get hit per minute. I will edge the better fighter due to more fight experience and stats to Jandiroba ML.


Michael Johnson v Alan Patrick  Johnson

Johnson lands 4.21 per minute. Patrick lands 1.76 per minute. Patrick averages 3.24 take downs per 15min, 35% TD Accuracy, and 46% takedown defense. Johnson's takedown defense is 77%. Johnson has 0.49 takedown average which is low, he is the standup guy. Coming off two losses, I feel this is his moment to bounce back. Johnson lost to Guida and Moises.  Patrick is coming off 2 back to back losses and his most recent 'could not continue' bout. The better fighter will win here boys and girls. The fight with Mason Jones v Patrick Patrick could not continue. I think Michael Johnson has what it takes to beat Patrick as long as he defends his takedowns which according to stats, have high probability of occurring.

Lee v Araujo I pick Andrea Lee because of her recent performance, better striking defense, and take down average giving her the slight edge. 


So this is another ladies fight. Some of you will yawn, while others will watch for a$$. And some, for pure profit. Ok, so let's dig in. The one inch reach advantage on Araujo is insignificant so I'll not consider that much. Araujo has 59% strike defense, as opposed to Lee's 65%. Lee lands 5.74 per minute, with proven KO/TKO ability (against her last win most recent against Calvillo). Power is more frequent in women's flyweight. Araujo lands 5.14 per minute. Araujo absorbs about 5 shots a minute, and Lee 4. (Rounded from stats APM 5.48 and 3.78).
I genuinely feel Lee's ability to beat Schevchenko and recent performance gives her the clear edge. Araujo is also 3 years older. Araujo has a strong 94% take down defense. So Lee will have a difficult time taking her down. Arajuo has 2.10 take downs per minute and Lee 1.77. They will both get at least one take down as my prediction. The probability is high.


Main Card

Hadley vs Nascimiento  Fade; not enough data.

A gatekeeper fight indeed. Quite the one to look forward to. The young Hadley coming in at a perfect 8-0-0 record against veteran Nascimiento with a 18-6-0 record. Nascimiento coming off 2 Ls, and Hadley of course dubs all the way thus far. Hadley being young at 25 years, one in reach advantage, against the 31 year old Nascimiento with a bit more mileage. Hadley's early career had quite a few submissions. He is good at BJJ.
Nascimiento is no newbie to BJJ either, with a solid amount of taps under his win record. Most likely will end by submission. Hadley's strike defense of 74% (with a one bout stat though in UFC) against Nascimiento's 46% strike defense. Nascimiento has appreciable strike accuracy of 68%.




Camacho v Torres  Torres KO/TKO or SUB.



Camacho older, more exp, same reach adv. 73in., 33 years old lands 6.67, absorbs 7.31, 1.17 takedowns per min, 72% takedown defense,
Torres gas tank, brawler, younger at 25, 59% accuracy, lands 11, absorbs 2 per minute, 75% defense in striking, 100% takedown defense,  

I give the edge to younger Torres because his ability to submit opponents and landing more by stats this will be more sig. strikes on the card so the probability of a win by decision is higher if all goes to plan. 


Chookagian v. Ribas Ribas wins if she lands, lets hands go and gets 2-3 takedowns. stats say prob. high.

Chookagian has more fights under her belt at 17-4-0 versus Ribas 11-2-0. Chookagian 2in reach adv. (somewhat appreciable), more mileage in age wise, at 34 year of age versus Ribas 29 years old.
Ribas 70% strike defense, very good. Chookagian has 62% strike defense, again good. Ribas takes less punches, 4.65 landed, 2.17 absorbed versus Ribas 4.59 landed, 4.3 absorbed. Ribas, 2 takedowns avg per 15min, versus Chookagian 0.31, 86% very good takedown defense by Ribas, Chookagian would have a very hard time getting Ribas taken down. Recent dub of Ribas against a tough fighter Jandirobas. I give it to Ribas.
Be careful if betting with thinking this will go 3 rounds. 



Grant v Smolka Flip a coin. lol. Smolka by KO/TKO.
Looking forward to this bout!  Grant avgs 11min 18 sec a fight and Smolka does avg at 9min 19sec.
Grant a bit older, 1985, both USA fighters, in their 30s. 
Smolka's last 5 bouts all did NOT go to decision.
Smolka 47% accuracy on strikes. Lands 4.54 per min, as opposed to 44% acc and 4.44 landed per min by Grant. Grant takes 3.75 shots a min and Smolka takes 3.87. 57% overall strike defense for Grant, 52% Smolka. 1.77 TD avg Grant, 1.81 TD Avg Smolka.  1.9 sub avg Smolka, 0.1 for Grant. Two B2B Losses Grant and one W one L Smolka. Grant has more fights that go distance stats wise.  I think this is a really close fight and a toss up.


Spann v Cutelaba Under the 3 rounds will go, Spann will land the knock out blow.
Finally, we're getting there....

Exciting fight. 5:17 avg fight time Spann versus 8:23 Cutelaba. Cutelaba is  29, Spann is 31. Age, not a factor.
Spann coming off Cirkunov dub KO/TKO in first round, looking strong. 4in reach advantage for Spann at 79 versus 74 for Ion Cutelaba's reach adv.

Cutelaba has good TD defense at 79%. 4.39 TD avg a fight. Spann has 1.58 TD Avg. Cutelaba has trouble getting subs though, needs to work on converting those TD to meaningful fight scenarios. I feel like 60% TD defense for Spann is good against Cutelaba, given that Spann keeps Cutelaba at bay and sprawls. Cutelaba will have an easier time shooting for the legs due to Spanns height being way taller. they have both fought some good guys, with Spann losing to "Lionheart" (Anthony Smith), and Johnny Walker. Cutelaba fought the likes of Ankalaev, Glover, and Cannonier back in 2016. This adds depth to their toughness. This will be a a KO/TKO for Spann.


*Cues Bruce Buffer*
Finally, the main event you have ALL BEEN WAITING FOR! Ladies and gentlemen!  

Jan Blachowicz v Rakic  Blachowicz by decision.


Blachowicz takes the stats on the left side chart and right side of chart below is Rakic

Wins/Losses/Draws	28-9-0	14-2-0
Average Fight Time	12:24	11:25
Height	6' 2"	6' 4"
Weight	205 lbs.	205 lbs.
Reach	78"	78"
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
DOB	Feb 24, 1983	Feb 06, 1992

Here we see these fighters fight time has a good shot at going over 2 rounds. (If your bookie offers, shoot not bad prop).
Same reach, same age about. Same stance.

The striking is similar 49% and 52% accuracy, 3.59 landed 4.23 landed, respectively for Blachowicz and Rakic.
53% and 52% strike defense respectively again for Blachowicz and Rakic. Absorbs 2.79 for Blachowicz and Rakic 2.23 per minute.

The edge will go to the depth in experience. Jan.

MOST RECENT FIGHTS (NEWEST FIRST)
	Loss - Teixeira	Win - Santos
	Win - Adesanya	Win - Smith
	Win - Reyes	Loss - Oezdemir
	Win - Anderson	Win - Manuwa
	Win - Souza	Win - Clark

Been watching more tape on camacho and man, this guy is ******* awesome. He’s not very good but he seems allergic to boring fights. Every fight I’ve watched, win or lose, turns into a war. 

@ayylmaonnaise you need to get a job instead of watching tape on bums fatty. UFC not hiring fat slobs to recruit for them bud

@Ayyyy popped up a few months ago and is pretty much the Tapology MVP right now. Ain’t gotta like everything he posts but the man put’s in good work and if you gotta problem with that then you got a problem being an MMA fan.

Camacho by sub +1000 fade recency bias & fade contender series

Spann vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba, TKO, R1
If Cutelaba always fights the way he did against Devin Clark he could clearly establish himself in the top 10 of the division. In his last fight he was patient in choosing his strikes, with a great ground game and power throughout the fight (even Devin Clark needed dentistry after that fight). Spann has had good performances in the UFC, such as against Cirkunov or Little Nog, but I honestly don't see him at the level to have victories against top 15 fighters (although he could surely continue with good victories against unranked fighters). Spann has a great chance if Cutelaba returns to fight in One-Round Berzerk or Burst mode, but if Ion continues to be Patient Cutelaba like in his last fight I think he will get the right moment to knockdown Spann and finish him by 1st or 2nd Round KO.

Smolka vs. Grant
Davey Grant, TKO, R2
Grant has been knocked down, but it is practically impossible to knock him out. Smolka has a good ground game, but if he keeps betting on his karate-based striking and his poor clinch exits I see Grant knocking him out easily if most of the fight takes place standing up.

Hadley vs. Nascimento
Jake Hadley, DEC
As I said before in the Hadley thread, he has the credentials: ex-Cage Warriors champion and a great level as a fighter. But Allan Nascimiento is a tough rival for his debut, the Brazilian lost in DWCS by split decision against an ex-ranked Raulian Paiva and in his short notice debut in the UFC he lost in a close split decision against Ulanbekov, for this fight I consider that there will be a fairly close decision, but if Hadley manages to win by a wide margin or completion it would be a clear sign that he is coming to reach the top of the division soon

Araujo vs. Lee
Andrea Lee, DEC
Araujo is good, but she usually tends to slow down considerably in the second half of the fight. Andrea Lee is a fighter with a much more constant rhythm, which can complicate her opponent with her striking. If Lee avoids spending a lot of time with her back on the ground, I think she can take the fight because of her volume of strikes.

Johnson vs. Patrick
Michael Johnson, TKO, R2
You never know what to expect from a Michael Johnson fight: Johnson has impressive victories against fighters of the caliber of Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson and Edson Barboza, but has had terrible debacles like losing to being finished by Thiago Moises by an ankle lock early in the second round. when his dominance in the first round had been such that Moises had only landed a sig. strike in the fight or other defeats where after having a strong start he was outclassed in the end as against Reza Madadi and Stevie Ray (that last one a controversial failure, but Ray's third round control was unquestionable). Patrick is coming off 2 consecutive losses and quitting against Mason Jones (NC in the record books) he is already almost 40 years old and looks distant from that consistency he had from 2016 to 2018. I choose Johnson to show his fast and powerful hands, but in reality any scenario in this fight does not seem unreasonable to me

If anyone know this you be real helpful to me, Is Ribas going to stay at 125 or win or loss she going back down to 115, And how plan was this move up, If it a short notice and she going back to 115, Chook is a lock if she still a 115, Fighter who move up division on short notice alway look worst then they should, Because they not that division I.e Isreal  vs Jan, Loopy vs Luana and Illa vs Herbett,

But if Ribas is a real flyweight now the fight is line accarant, Ribas could wresle her as Chook does have 50% takedown defence and haven't fought a grappler, But  115 strength Ribas vs 125 strength Ribas it make a diffrence in what happen in the wresling because we all know Chook has 125 streght

* Edited at 05.13.2022, 4:43 AM ET *

@tieoken jangle is salty because I made fun of him one time and hurt his feelings lol

@ayy bros salty I’ve seen him call u fat slob or something along those lines on a few forums now lmao 

Yeah I didn’t even say anything in holm vs viera and he just @‘s me saying shut up🤣🤣🤣🤣clearly he’s been thinking about me. He’s like a crazy ex I honestly forgot who he was

He might be duong tbh

At 12:36 too. Buddy thought about me before he went to bed 🤨🤨🤨🤨

Lol I wouldn’t be surprised if it is duong lol 

Like why does he care if someone spends there free time studying tapes of mma fighters it’s  ur life not his bruh 

* Edited at 05.13.2022, 8:49 AM ET *