UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Idk I’ll never understand why my activity pisses everyone off so much lol. 1. My posts are done on my phone so each post is the equivalent of a text message. I have a life guys I’m not sitting in front of a computer all day🤣🤣 and 2. He can just hide my messages. The fact that he hasn’t yet shows that he probably appreciates what I write but can’t admit that to himself

It’s also pretty sad to criticize someone else with what they do with their life. How you gonna be so invested in what a random person you don’t even know is doing? Shouldn’t he be focusing on his own life? Or do I just mean that much to him?

Changed some of my picks late after taking some time to study a few things and listen to some people I respect. Unless there is a bad weight miss these are my final picks. Some I am very confident about.

1. Rakic KO
I think Rakic is the future and Jan is on the way out. Unless Jan lands a serious body kick or a KO blow in the first round I think Rakic takes him apart slowly from the outside. He should be able to keep it standing as well. Someone made a point that most of Jan's wins are over middleweights (except for Reyes) and I think that is true. I am actually taking both Rakic and the over 2.5 as near locks.

2. Ion KO
Cutelaba is much much better than Span who imo has only a punchers chance in R1. His takedown defence is horrible and I think Cutelaba who has been working on his cardio should take him down easily and TKO him. Hulk beats Superman. Pretty confident about this one too.

3. Grant KO
I think Grant has improved so much that short of a hail Mary submission on the ground I cannot see how Smolka wins this. Grant should keep it standing and put him out in R2/3. Again pretty confident about this one.

4. Chookagian Dec
Again I consider this a lock. Ribas is coming up a weight class against someone much bigger and better. I don't see where Ribas is better than Chookagian. This should be a shut out.

5. Camacho KO
One of the picks I switched. I think Camacho returning after a long break will actually do him good and his experience and quality of opponent he has faced should give him a significant edge over the debutant. Camacho should have more power, better striking and probably better BJJ (though he does not use it). I think he is the side here and a good dog pick.

6. Nascimento Dec
I think Nascimento is better than Hadley. Still not convinced by Hadleys record and I think they are both even on the feet and from a cardio point of view. They both have horrible take down defence and either could end up on the bottom. That said from the bottom I think Nascimento is going to be more active and have tons of scramble attempts and will likely look better to the judges. Hadley won his contract from an opponent who I think he lost the first round to and then who gassed as he was on short notice. Not convinced yet. A DWCS fade for me.

7. Araujo Dec
My other switched pick. The most difficult fight on the card for me to decide on. But after having a good think about it I am now picking Araujo. I think she is a much better wrestler and grappler and Lee has bad take down defence. Also should be better on the feet. Her main issue is her cardio but if she can win 2 rounds I cannot see Lee finishing her in the 3rd. Also Lee's record is not that good, and sure she seems to be improving but her last 2 wins were by wrestling Antonia who has horrible take down defence and outstriking a much smaller Calvillo who quit on the stool. Her losses to Modafferi and Lauren Murphy make me really sway to Vivi's side. I think a split decision for Araujo unless there is a robbery.

8. Johnson KO
Oh god, I am picking MJ. Surely he is the much more skilled striker. And even though Patrick can take him down he will likely gas after R1. And will never pick someone who quit like he did against Mason Jones. At least MJ loses because of poor IQ, not because of quitting. I think the UFC wants to give MJ a win and want to get rid of Patrick (who I think is only still there because of his connection to Oliviera) and this is how they do it.

9. Jandiroba Sub
2nd hardest fight for me to pick. I like Angie. And I like her striking and cage fighting which is much better than Virna's. As is her cardio. The only reason I am picking Jandiroba is that if this hits the ground I think Virna is going to finish her pretty quickly. Her BJJ is really really good. And though Angie has good take down defence Virna gets it to the ground mainly with throws and trips which could do the trick here. If it stays standing though then Angie takes it.

10. Taira Sub
I think Taira is a real prospect and I am not sure how good Candellario is. I think Taira has decent striking and good cardio and he only needs one mistake to wrap up a submission. I feel the hype is warranted here. 

11. Maximov Dec/Late sub
Was not sold on Maximov till the Soriano fight. After that I really changed my mind. Good cardio, good chain wrestling, good BJJ, decent striking. Just a better version of Petroski imo with better cardio. I think short of a hail Mary KO in R1 Maximov is close to being a lock.


Good luck guys!

Here are a few of the shorter parlays I am playing, but obviously tail with discretion

1.
Rakic
Grant KO
Nascimento over 1.5
Araujo over 2.5
Camacho FTNGD
Trainer ITD (Bellator)
Keilholtz KO (Bellator)

2. 
Rakic over 2.5
Cutelaba KO
Chookagian
Maximov
Taira
Enkamp (Bellator)
Daley KO
MVP KO (Bellator) - Hedged this leg with another similar parlay with Storley Dec

3. 
Araujo over 1.5
Maximov over 1.5
Grant FTNGD
Rakic
Chookagian Dec
Cutelaba
Maximov
Johnson FTNGD
Ward (Bellator)
Kate Jackson (Bellator)
Trainer (Bellator)
Keilholtz (Bellator)
Machida (Bellator) - Hedged this leg with another similar parlay with the over 2.5 instead

You only need to chuck about $10 on these to make a reasonable profit if it hits

* Edited at 05.13.2022, 9:36 AM ET *

my reason for my activity on tapology is because im at school for 7 hours.

people shouldnt care how much we spend on this, its not like we are affecting them

@jreynolds that’s what I’m saying bro🤣. I don’t understand why activity is such a big deal, people gotta learn to use the block button. 

Błachowicz vs. Rakić
Aleksandar Rakić, DEC
Watch Rakic vs Smith and Jan vs Teixera. Rakic isn't quite the grappler Teixera is but his wrestling should be good enough to maintain top control. If he can avoid being caught and KO'ed by that polish power he should grind out a decision

Spann vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba, TKO, R1
Spann has been finished in the first round two of his last 3 fights and Ion Cutelaba is most dangerous in the first. Spann could catch him as well but either way someone is taking a nap in the first and my money is on it being Spann.

Smolka vs. Grant
Davey Grant, TKO, R2
Davey Grant is more technical and has more power in his hands. Smolka is also susceptible to leg kicks which Davey excels at. Grant easily

Chookagian vs. Ribas
Katlyn Chookagian, DEC
Bad matchup for Ribas. Chookagian should be able to use her push kicks and jab to keep her at range on the feet and her submission defense is top notch if it reaches the mat. Chookagian is looking for her first finish in the UFC and might get it here because Ribas was dropped by Jandiroba and finished by Marina Rodriguez. Odds are it goes to decision though.

Camacho vs. Torres
Manuel Torres, TKO, R1
Torrres is wild and goes after it in the first. Think he lands something crazy here and puts the crank to sleep

Hadley vs. Nascimento
Jake Hadley, DEC
Nascimento is underrated but he is too comfortable off of his back. He'll probably be content to be on bottom and throw up submissions but Jake is too good for that and rides out the fight on top.

Araujo vs. Lee
Viviane Araujo, DEC
They're probably more even on the feet than you'd think and Araujo had a clear advantage on the ground. Give me the more well rounded fighter

Johnson vs. Patrick
Michael Johnson, DEC
I don't trust either so I guess I'll take the most unpredictable inconsistent fighter on the roster

Jandiroba vs. Hill
Angela Hill, TKO, R3
Jandiroba gases hard in the 3rd and Angela is dangerous on the feet. She gets the late finish

Candelario vs. Taira
Tatsuro Taira, SUB, R1
Candelario goes for an early takedown and gets guillotined

Maximov vs. Petroski
Nick Maximov, DEC
Petroski might steal round one but hus cardio will be his downfall and won't be able to deal with the wrestling and pressure of Maximov

No weight miss for white kong. LFG

Patrick looked like a zombie out there. A god loving zombie tho. Gotta love these brazilians and jesus

All but 3 fighters made weight in the first 20 minutes. We're waiting on Chookagian, Smolka and Candelario.

Candelario having a tough cut doesn’t surprise me at all. He had a terrible cut last week and I’m sure this one isn’t any better lol

i wanna say something so perverted about chookagian but im not going to

Say it

nah

:(

Smolka & Candelario why am I not surprised. Both of them not gonna fight. I fkin know it. Chookagian weigh in or what? This is new.

Yeah smolka was he training at all. Idk looks not in shape etc.

Ooooof candelario misses by half a pound. He looked like complete **** 

* Edited at 05.13.2022, 1:14 PM ET *

Chook made weight. Surprising to see she took so long tho

Smolka made weight, looked fine. Candelario missed by .5, looked drained and confused putting on his sandals again when he was supposed to strip and use the curtain. Chookagian looked a bit drained but not too bad, she made weight as well.