UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksander Rakic 

Rakic KO RD 4 

I didnt really do my homework on this one. I just think rakic is the better fighter and Jan, not so good. Not hating, but I just think jan is pretty overrated. He hasnt beaten many great LHWs (corey anderson ko was a good win tho) and has beaten more MWs in his prime than LHWs (izzy, rockhold, jacare, cannonier (he was lhw when they fought but lhw cannonier sucked)). He does have polish power tho as he hits very hard and has a solid bjj game. Rakic has been boring af in his last couple of fights but that shouldnt take away from the fact that he is a very good fighter. He is a good kickboxer and has very good tdd. I dont like Jan’s age + I dont like how hes coming off of a bad back injury. He also looked like dog**** in his last fight; didnt make the fight competitive for a second. I didnt watch tape but siding with rakic because hes younger and has looked very good thus far. 

Ryan Spann vs Ion Cutelaba 

Cutelaba KO RD 1 

This fight is going to be stupid, violent, and hilarious. I like spann but man he ******* sucks. If he was in any division besides LHW he likely wouldnt be ranked. The only good things i can say about him is hes gigantic for the division and he has a good guillotine but thats about it. The fight iq is not there, the chin is definitely not there, and his takedown defense is very bad (this is key for ion winning). Spann is not a very good striker and doesnt use his length at all. He has the tall man defense where he tries to use his height to dodge punches and it doesnt work out well at all. The cut is clearly very bad on his chin as hes been koed 3 times and almost got chinned by sam alvey. If you need any more proof his chin sucks, he almost got knocked out by a jab in his last fight. And oh my god is his fight iq abysmal. He literally was given a free win against johnny walker and absolutely blew it. He was seconds away from a finish and then stopped punching johnny, allowing him to recover. Then he got koed by elbows while trying to go for a takedown (fun fact, hes been koed in this way twice. Got koed by an elbow while trying to takedown karl roberson on dwcs.) I cant decide if ion is good or not but when hes on, hes on. Hes not a great striker but hes very aggressive and has a serious power advantage. He looked very good in his last fight but i fear he will gas himself out if he doesnt get a finish against spann. However, it should come by however he wants. What he is likely going to do, being the smaller man here, is wrestle as he has a fantastic greco roman and sambo background. He is one of the best wrestlers at 205 and as i mentioned, spann’s tdd is very bad. I could see ion getting caught in a guillotine so he has to mind his p’s & q’s. His GNP is ******* vicious too. I see this ending very violently and very quickly in what will be a sloppy, low iq brawl for as long as it lasts.

Davey Grant vs Louis Smolka 

Grant KO RD 1

I dont see this one being close. Smolka has been very inconsistent in his return to the ufc but i dont think hes all that bad. Hes a meh striker but where he thrives is in the grappling. Hes very creative and is always looking for the sub. His takedown defense sucks tho and i honestly think davey could have success on the ground. Davey may have turned himself into an incredible striker, but hes still got a very good bjj game. We’ve seen him bully fighters with bad tdd before like against grigorii popov. However, i think this likely takes place on the feet. Davey is a very creative striker and i would describe it as awkward but effective. He throws lots of spinning kicks and attacks but his best weapon is his hooks. He doesnt telegraph them and throws them with lightning fast speed. He throws it as body-body-hook and it has slept two people in a row. Smolka hasnt shown a bad chin but after having it cracked for the first time in his most recent fight, I think davey could crack him. I dont see smolka getting a finish of davey either. Davey used to have a problem defending submissions but hes shown to have improved that when he fought chito. Just surviving three rounds with chito without even getting rocked is impressive in and of itself. Davey may have the ugly record but he is a very good fighter. Just seems to get better with age. 

Kaitlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas 

Chookagian DEC 

I dont really know how to feel about this. Kaitlyn had a pretty terrible cut, and it turns out her big size difference is not actually that big. However, I dont really like or understand why ribas is going to 125 and fighting the no. 1 contender. Ribas is honestly a very good fighter but she gets held back by her absolutely terrible chin. I actually think she may have one of the worst chins in the ufc, its just absolute glass. However, she is fighting the most pillowfisted fighter in the ufc; you actually could not pay chook to get a finish.That being said, chookagian is a really good fighter. Shes primarily a boxer but has a brown belt iirc. Ribas is a very high volume striker and has a judo and bjj background. The ground is where she has the biggest advantage but, despite having a 55% tdd, chookagian has a very good get up game; she almost never gets held down for long periods of time. I dont think this will change either with ribas being the smaller girl. I highly doubt chookagian can chin ribas but it would be pretty hilarious if she did. 

Frank Camacho vs Manuel Torres 

Camacho KO RD 1 

Camacho is the dog i like the most this week. Despite having a very ugly record in the ufc, he always brings the fight and has had some close fights with some dogs like drew dober. Its hard for me to be impressed with torres. Sure, hes got the nice 100% finish rate and seems to be able to ko you or sub you, but his competition is awful, you cant find more than 3 of his fights on the regional scene, and camacho is the toughest person hes fought by a mile. Even comparing the competition of the two is just laughable. From the fights ive seen, torres has improved a lot but again, its hard to tell what his actual skillset it. He used to just be a brawler but he looked a lot more technical on dwcs (im sure this will change because i know for a fact camacho is going to bring him into a war). He looked good on dwcs but again, it was hard to really gain anything because the fight was quick, his opponent was pretty ****, and he won via eye poke so not even a legit win. Looking at torres’s record, he has only left the first round once and that fight was a split decision which leads me to believe that his cardio is pretty ****. Camacho doesnt have the greatest cardio but he has more than enough to make it to a decision and, funny enough, his cardio actually looks worse when hes at 170. Now, its hard to be fully confident in camacho because he did get sparked by the very terrible justin jaynes. Rewatching that fight however, jaynes did hit him pretty perfectly on the jaw so i can see how he went out so easily. Despite being koed 5 times, i think camacho’s chin is actually pretty solid but, he has taken a ****load of damage throughout his career. Camacho also hits like a ******* truck. I could easily see him out voluming torres. Camacho has been on a long layoff, but hes not ancient (only 32) and from watching interviews it seems like hes been working on his game a lot during his layoff. I think he likely wins by ko but apparently camacho has a very good bjj game. Torres has lost both his fights by sub so i could see a sub, but it seems very unlikely. 

Jake Hadley vs Allan Nasicmento 

Hadley DEC 

I could really see hadley losing this but im a big fan of him so i have to side with him here. Hes getting an incredibly tough debut here and i must say i really dont agree with the line. However, i am very high on him so its good to see the ufc also thinks that way. Much like maximov vs petroski, this is a fight between two people with identical fighting styles; two high level grapplers who have a surprisingly decent standup game. Nasicmento has alternated win/loss in his most recent fights but he has been fighting some dogs. His two ufc fights have been very close and against really tough competition. On the feet, I think i will give the advantage to hadley but nasicmento has a good striking game himself. Hes high volume and throws a lot of leg kicks. Hadley is a southpaw and im decently impressed with his standup. Hes got good kicks and very good striking defense; I have watched most of his career even stemming back to the amateur days and hes only ever been in trouble once. He got rocked against luke shanks and was able to turn that into a perfectly timed level change into a takedown. On the ground, I dont think there is any chance either person gets subbed; both these guys have ridiculously good bjj games. I am giving the edge to hadley in this fight because he is the better wrestler and also does not accept bottom position while nasicmento is far too comfortable off of his back. Nasicmento is very active off of his back tho, constantly threatening triangles and armbars. Hadley’s bjj honestly blows me away. His transitions are awesome and he is very creative on the ground (i mean this dude has not one, but TWO gogoplatas. Thats just insane). He effortlessly chains submissions on the ground. In one of his fights, I saw him go from a crucifix, transition into mount, then attack a triangle, switched to a leg scissor choke, back to a triangle, and then switching to an omoplata. I am also very impressed with his competition, especially for someone from the uk regional scene. He has been to a 5th round multiple times and has lots of championship experience. Despite having a win over reece street, hes made up for that with wins over luke shanks, blaine odriscoll, zulu boy, and more. It wouldnt shock me if he lost this because guys I am high on always find a way to lose in important spots, but it would be silly of me not to side with hadley.

@ayy with Camacho yes he did get kod with a perfect shot but who’s saying Torres won’t do that he took a lot of damage in his career and I think that’s the end of his chin everyone’s chin goes eventually I think Torres kos him early but I see why u sided with Camacho I’m not confident in this pick at all + the layoff scares me even more 

that’s a good point I just truely think he wins that Jaynes fight 9/10 times. It’s not like his chin hasn’t been cracked before; geoff neal kicked his head into orbit that was way worse. Camacho doesn’t have a glass chin but he can be chinned. Plus, it’s the biggest test of torres career by far so if he doesn’t get camacho out of there in 5 minutes, will he even be able to ko him? It’s so hard to pick because Manuel never leaves the first and you can barely find any tape on this kid

Yh he has so many red flags so does Camacho, Torres being unproven we don’t know his cardio or his full skill set and Camacho with the layoff and with the jaynes fight I’m intrigued on how it will play out 

I’d recommend rewatching camachos ufc fights if u get a chance. Not only is it an exciting ass run, it shows that he’s a lot better than his poor ufc record looks on paper. Made me a lot more confident in him (Jaynes fight still really bothers me tho lol)

I did rewatch his fights the other night I think he’s really good and really fun bro only has bangers might change my pick when I wake up I’ll go through my picks again 

+ his only win was against a guy who legit got cut after 3 losses that’s one of the many fights I’m split on that one, Patrick vs Johnson, candaleirio vs taira, Jandridroba be hill, Araujo vs lee I’m slit on all of them like 60/40% confident in all of my picks in them fights 

Solid breakdowns. I’m personally not sold on Camacho (just in my opinion), but a thorough breakdown nonetheless. 

Great stuff Master 🙏

Camacho vs. Torres
Manuel Torres, SUB, R1
Toss-up between KO & sub.

Johnson vs. Patrick
Michael Johnson, DEC
Least predictable fight on the card

Jandiroba vs. Hill
Virna Jandiroba, DEC
Virna's good but she concerned me with some of the decisions she made against Amanda. She should be able to beat Angela though.

Interesting card, looking fw crazy finishes and maybe upsets.

If you look at Camachos first fights in the UFC they all went to decision. I think after he got his chin cracked he then had a run of 4 fights finishing in a row.

Now after a long lay off I think he will be much more durable (I know he had an accident and was recovering but I think that time off is still valuable).

I think he has a very very good chance of beating Torres who finishes most of his fights in the first 2.5 minutes. After that I think he could be very vulnerable.

* Edited at 05.14.2022, 5:07 AM ET *

Thank you for reminding me that Spann is at Fortis. The worst MMA gym in existance run by General Useless Advice.

Gonna load up on Ion.

Sorry Fortis is not the worst MMA gym in existance, that honour goes to SBG and JacksonWink

Araujo vs. Lee
Viviane Araujo, DEC
Gtg

has Fortis MMA ever had a world champ?

at least the other 2 had Jones and McGregor

you make a good point, Fortis it is then!

* Edited at 05.14.2022, 7:19 AM ET *

@blackbet thank you sir. Yeah camacho is a bit of a reach but I think I’m gonna take the risk lol 


@rusty yeah Spann being at fortis is just fitting. I have no idea how they allow him to be so bad🤣🤣

@rusty I think syndicate mma is also up there for worst gym 

Jandiroba vs. Hill
Virna Jandiroba, DEC
Hope I'm wrong