UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Garry got his ass whooped for 4:50 of a 4:55 second fight, He landed the punch to KO a chinny fighter Williams but what happen when he fights someone better and/or a better chin, he need to get better

But I do think Weeks is a step down In compution, so I think that explain the odds to an extent, I’m usually against step down in compution like O’Malley after destroying  Almeda going for an easier fight in Smolka, but this time it kinda make sense because of how the last fight went

* Edited at 04.06.2022, 3:42 PM ET *

Volkanovski vs. Jung
Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, R3
Volkanovski is phenomenal in every sense of the word, inside the octagon I think he is without a doubt one of the best Fight IQ's and the best fighter making adjustments during a fight (shown enormously against Chad Mendes and against Holloway in the second fight). TKZ is relaxed: during the previous interview he mentioned that his second chance finally came again and that he has no pressure, I consider that TKZ without pressure is a more dangerous opponent because he already knows that the championship at this moment is not his and that he can look for the TKO without caring if he is finished. TKZ has always been a spectacular fighter to watch their fights and already has an established legacy in the division, the boxing odd in the fight is disconcerting to me but I believe that Volkanovski took advantage of TKZ's well-known low guard to get a TKO in the second half of the fight.

Sterling vs. Yan II
Petr Yan, TKO, R2
It is true the DQ loss and the consequent loss of the belt was Yan's fault because the rules are very clear. But it seems ridiculous to me how Sterling celebrates this fact as if he had won the championship after making a flying triangle, changing it to armbar and submitting Yan, literally Sterling is the only UFC champion who won a championship after being knocked out cold in the canvas (by an illegal shot) and miraculously he has not said that he has reigned for more than a year (Reign that has postponed the pull off of the rematch 2 times). Yan looks extremely focused for this fight, and I reckon if this time he has scrambles similar to the one in the first fight he'll do something smarter like take the back or punish every Sterling shot with ground and pound. Sterling's path to the title opportunity was legitimate, but his actions after winning by DQ are what have caused him to not be taken seriously by his peers and by fans to disrespect him. My Prediction: Yan will knock out Sterling again, but this time with a legal shot.

Burns vs. Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R1
Durinho is a high level fighter, in the last few years with Sanford his Striking has evolved immensely and his BJJ is always a threat. Without a doubt it is the biggest challenge Chimaev has faced so far and the most surprising of all is that in my opinion Chimaev will pass this challenge in an impressive way. There is no doubt that Chimaev's level of wrestling is impressive, after seeing his wrestling against Jack Hermansson (one of the best middleweight wrestlers) and his training in Thailand with Amosov (Ukrainian Bellator champion with incredible level of wrestling). wrestling) and seeing how Chimaev dominated everything became very clear. But another thing that many people downplay is Borz's KO power: when Chimaev fights Combat Sambo world champion Ikram Aliskerov, he managed to defend takedowns against the cage and brutally knock Aliskerov out with a vicious uppercut, in his debut in USA against GM3 also achieved an impressive KO with a perfect hook. In my opinion the fight will take place entirely on the feet, Burns will land a couple of good hands (Burns has always been characterized as a good starter) but Chimaev will win by a brutal KO in the first round. I have no doubt that after the fight many people will say "it's that Burns is a fat lightweight" "it's that Burns has never been elite". I am not a Chimaev fanboy and it is clear that if Burns gives the upset, Chimaev will lose half of his fandom and the hype will never be the same. But if Borz wins impressively, he has all the merits to be the next challenger. People will no longer be able to say that it only wins cans, because the Jingliang has never been in the Top 10 or that GM3 is an Overrated in the ground and a glass chin or that Phillips and McKee took them out of the Heinz corporation (tomato cans). A KO on Burns is impossible to discredit.

Dern vs. Torres
Tecia Torres, DEC
The fact that after her fight against Ribas and motherhood, Dern has shown improvements as a fighter is undeniable. But as I said before Tecia Torres has great defense in the clinch and this is pretty much the only position where Dern can get a takedown (against the fence). Dern's only chance is to get an early takedown (which can be made difficult for him by her takedown effectiveness) and go for the submission (which can be made less difficult for him by her great BJJ). But I believe that Tecia Torres will keep the fight on her feet and take advantage of her high volume of strikes, her good cardio and the high fight pace that she can impose in 15-minute fights to take a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Rozenstruik vs. Tybura
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, TKO, R2
Tybura had a lot of trouble striking Greg Hardy, Walt Harris and Ben Rothwell early in the fight until he got the takedown (or clinch in the case of the Rothwell fight). On the other side is Rozenstruik who has more KO power than the last 3 mentioned (Harris has good KO power, but I doubt he can do the things that Jairzinho did against Arlovski and Overeem) and despite not having the best wrestling he has a TDD 75% and 2 fighters with powerful g&p like Blaydes and Overeem couldn't finish it when they had ground control over Jairzinho. The fight is close because we know that sometimes Jairzinho is economical with hands, but I have no doubt that Rozenstruik just needs a check hook or some power punch to turn off the lights on Tybura. Tybura had a 5 win streak in the past, but Volkov and Jairzinho are a vastly superior level to the guys Tybura outclassed in 2020 and the start of 2021. Suriname can be happy because Bigi Boy represents the sport of his country in an incredible way inside the UFC octagon.

You think weeks is gonna beat garry by pressuring him on the feet. I dont know about that lemonade. He is gonna walk into a left hook, a left a high kick a left groin shot a left everything

* Edited at 04.06.2022, 4:11 PM ET *

@tiomanel have you seen Garry’s striking defense lol

will weeks capitalize on it though? does he even have ko power?

He’s pretty powerful. You can see in his last two fights he’s really developed his striking. He used to mainly wrestle but now he’s a lot more comfortable with his striking after getting some pro boxing experience 

She had a boyfriend before Raquel

Check it out fellas! 
Bigi Boy, Mike Malott, Khamzat, Petr, what a card.

* Edited at 04.06.2022, 4:30 PM ET *

ill give you this, hes a musclular guy which could mean ko power. but i havent seen any chin issues from garry for me to be concerned

I agree. I don’t even know if weeks could ko him but the striking defense could be an issue anyways; can’t win fights off of having a good chin alone

you can at a lower level

while the debate of garry vs weeks still rages on here i was thinking about arce vs santos. I believe its a bounce back spot for julio against a fighter a level or two below his perceived talent level. I'm just having a hard time trusting that julio will win. I have him in some parlays. I just can't go all in with it being a opening card fight. Maybe its because its the first fight of the day that i feel this way but i always feel like the first fight is controversial. Watching tape of santos didn't help my confidence in arce. Santos has a alot of speed. Song is really fast. and it was only 4-5 month ago. am i missing anything ? 

Well, santos hasn’t fought since 2019 which is never great when making ur ufc debut. He looks to just brawl on the feet and throws a ton of spinning ****. Like literally spinning everything backfists, kicks, elbows, etc. arce has incredibly good striking defense (67%) and I think he will be able to dodge these for the most part (spinning attacks are very difficult to land in the first place). Arce seems faster and a better striker in general. Don’t really see this hitting the ground because arce has great tdd and from what I’ve seen out of santos he can’t really get takedowns for ****. But, because it’s mma I’m sure santos will make this way more competitive than it should be. Imo, arce whoops him and might even get a finish 

* Edited at 04.06.2022, 7:48 PM ET *

Really interested to see how Garry looks here. I’ll admit, I am not as high on “The Future'' as a lot of other people in this community. I did not like what I saw in his debut at all. Admittedly, octagon jitters on debut are a real thing and I think that played a large part into why he looked so poor. But further than that, he was out playing golf with DC the day before, not worrying about his opponent. His striking defence was terrible - if Jordan Williams can hit you that freely and easily, I worry about your future in the UFC. But… and a huge BUT - he is incredibly young and talented and I expect to see a much better Garry here. He is big for the division, he has great cardio and he is really well rounded. He has good power, good submissions and a deceptive judo game. He’s lining up against Weeks here who actually surprised me on debut against Bam Bam, he looked really really good. He had good wrestling, admittedly against Barbarena doesnt say a whole lot, he had a nice variety of strikes and looked solid for a short notice fight. To me, he seems like a decent fighter who does the basics quite well. I didnt like seeing how much his leg got chewed up against Barbarena, he had absolutely zero defence against it. I think we see Garry use his range and chew that leg up. Weeks’ wrestling will be hard to execute here and if he does get in close I really think Garry’s size will help and actually I think we could see Garry take it to the ground with sneaky Judo trips and throws. I really am looking for a spot to fade Garry but I don’t think this is the one. Mark my words, we WILL fade him soon as a big favourite. If Weeks had a little more power and offensive game, I would be playing him but I don’t think he has enough to worry Garry right now. Weeks seems very durable, so I am expecting to see this one go to the judges. Give me Ian Garry via UD.

Garry/Weeks Over 1.5 Rounds
Torres ML
Chimaev by Finish
Sterling/Yan Fight Starts Round 3
Volkanovski/Zombie Fight Starts Round 4


Does this hit or not?

If you parley Khamzat/Yan/Volk it's -190 (65%), I think that the one thing I don't like about the card, I find it hard to get exited for fights where you kinda know the results before hand, I like competitive fights more then mismatch in MMA, And the big fights on the card are mismatch on paper , But I will say mismatch do tend to have sick finishes

Do people agree with me on competitive fight being the interesting fights on paper

* Edited at 04.06.2022, 9:11 PM ET *

Find it hard to have any sort of confidence in Tecia here tbh.