UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

If the UK fighters have a bad night my picks are ****** as ive picked nearly all of them (minus the obvious)

Im trying to think who to change, Im having trouble remembering how Allan fights or how convincing Craigs wins have been.

Volkov is Russian so I hope he wins.

don't waste your pick on Craig, all he has is a hail mary sub. He is getting pieced up bad. trust me

Craig definitely has the furrier chest which will undoubtedly play into his favour. 

Okay just finalized another parlay... I call this one the "bright future" parlay.

Tom Aspinall 
Paddy Pimblett
Ilia Topuria
Muhammed Mokaev

All four guys are young, hungry and have that special aura going for them right now.  That's my final bet for this card, I wish everyone good luck.  See you tommorrow.  

I'm honestly failing to see how Hooker wins tomorrow unless he gets lucky and catches Allen with something sneaky like a well timed knee or uppercut. The guy has every physical advantage imaginable at this weight class but after his recent losses I just don't think he's mentally in the right place to fight a legit T10 FW. I think Hooker should have taken the Gilbert Burns route and just started from scratch at WW and worked his way up. Instead he chose to leave one shark tank, wreck his kidneys to make 146 to jump head first into another shark tank. Just bizarre to me, but maybe he proves me wrong like Aldo did.


Anyone else see something I don't? Like am I being delusional?

Volkov vs. Aspinall
Alexander Volkov, DEC
gonna take a risk here and say that aspinall can't get the job done with the early flurries and that volkov takes over once he starts to slow. lewis is the only person to stop him in the ufc and he was handily winning that fight prior. we know he can go 5 full rounds too, so why not him taking 3/4/5 on scorecards?

Allen vs. Hooker
Arnold Allen, DEC
feel like allen will be able to hang standing and work for td's once getting inside.

Pimblett vs. Vargas
Paddy Pimblett, SUB, R1
picking the little dutch boy and hoping to be wrong, but i don't see why he can't find the back here.

Nelson vs. Sato
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
sato's last two losses came via sub, seems like they're trying to tee it up for gunnar.

McCann vs. Carolina
Luana Carolina, DEC
feeling like carolina is gonna be too big and strong for molly to muscle around and she's gonna eat molly up from the outside like she did to loopy.

Grundy vs. Amirkhani
Makwan Amirkhani, DEC
makwan has only been taken down by arnold allen and grundy seems to wanna push that route, i'll say he gets stuffed and maybe taken down himself because makwan takes down every single one of his opponents.

Krylov vs. Craig
Paul Craig, SUB, R2
not really sure why craig is an underdog here. he's obviously susceptible to catching a ko because he full commits to his attacks, but when i think of krylov's losses i think of him getting grappled down and that's exactly what paul can bring.

Shore vs. Valiev
Jack Shore, DEC
guess i feel like shore can hang in the grappling and push a harder pace.

Reed vs. McKenna
Cory McKenna, DEC
wouldn't mind an upset here, but i feel like mckenna will be able to work her way inside and try to grind it out like sijara.

Mokaev vs. Durden
Cody Durden, DEC
i'm gonna start this off right and pick durden while really hoping to be wrong. it's possible the wrestling cancels out a bit.

#TeamBear4Life

Everyone is talking about his cut like it’s the worst thing in the world but things are different this time. He planned this cut months before even signing a bout. He went to the PI, did test cuts, and got cleared by the staff there to confirm it was a safe and feasible cut this time around. Plus, he’s evolved as a fighter. I’m not saying he’s a world beater or anything but he should look more improved at FW than he did when he originally came into the ufc. He’s going to weigh more and have every measureable advantage over allen. He’s not guaranteed a win but he’s gonna be the toughest person allen has ever fought. It’s also an interesting matchup because allen is super low volume where hooker is a high volume brawler. Should be a good fight 

https://twitter.com/DrDavidAbbasi/status/1504859404772024320?s=20&t=68AWnFpo8oe-VNg2OyFD5Q

* Edited at 03.19.2022, 12:14 AM ET *

3 people I'm not picking, because there's no incentive on here to make a value pick, but I think make the fights a lot closer than expected, and could possibly win..... Reed, Durden, and Shamil. 

* Edited at 03.19.2022, 12:29 AM ET *

Look I could be wrong but I really think Allen is being over rated. Sure if it goes to decision the judges could give him an unfair win even if he loses, and though I don't think Hookers weight cut will affect him too much you never know.

But skill wise Hooker is better than Arnold, and he is bigger with more power. He has fought the much better opposition at a higher weight class. Arnold pretty much was losing to Sodiq apart from the 2 knock downs and we know how chinny Sodiq can be.

I really think Hooker is the better fighter by far, don't get me wrong I like Allen a lot but I think this is a bad match up. If I am wrong I hand it to you for calling it!

Agree with you 100% bro, those are 3 potential apple pie ****ters to ruin all parlays.

1. I hate Durdan but we don't really know how good Mokaev actually is. I have hedged with the over 1.5 in a lot of my parlays in case. I suspect that Mokaev is the real deal though but he is so young! Still I expect him to gas out Durdan and perhaps get a late finish.

2. Reed is not as bad as everyone is saying, I think she is decent. But I do think McKenna's forward pressure and wrestling will win the day, even get her a finish. And the Team Alpha Male connection does matter to me.

3. Pavlovitch is not reliable after round 1 and who knows if Shamil can get it to the floor. If it does it could be trouble. I actually took Pavlovitch out of some of my parlays and played the fight to not go the distance instead.

The other one I am a little worried about is Paul Craig. I do think if Krylov fights sensibly he will easily win this, but this is Krylov. Fight IQ is not his freind. I have him in more than a few parlays and it makes me nervous, that said I am going on skills, and I think Krylov is far more skilled.

Hooker is 11-7 in ufc so no world beater. He’s 1-3 realizing he’s never gonna sniff a belt at lw. Dropping down to have a size advantage on elite fw **** off

11 - 7 against who though?

* Edited at 03.19.2022, 1:06 AM ET *

8-0 is more impressive than getting mauled by makhachev and chandler

I disagree in regards to Pavlovich, he's gone 3 and 5 rounds before in the Russian scene, and didn't look worse for wear in those showings. 

Shamil is also not the type of guy to put up an overwhelming pace, so worse case scenario we get Sergey point fighting.

These are all the bets i have for tomorrow, each ones $30. 
 
Aspinall/Volkov Under 4.5 (-150):

Made pretty much this same bet on the main event last week and it missed, but kinda clear now that Thiago just kinda doesn't engage anymore. That's not really the case with Volkov as much, both guys have big finish potential and its in front of big crowd. I think Tom gets a early KO though.
 
Craig/Krylov Over 1.5 (-150):

Think the wrestling of Krylov and the defensive grappling of Craig kinda makes most of this a boring stalematey fight, and if there's a finish it would come later. Think it goes to decision and Krylov wins but its in London so if its close they might give it to Craig.
 
Grundy ITD push if GTD (-150):

I think Grundy definitely the better wrestler and probably more powerful strikes. If there's a finish i see it being on the Grundy side. Makwan is pretty hittable and gives up subs more. Plus motivated by Father and home Crowd. Makwan looked really bad on scales too.
 
Shore ITD push if GTD (-130):
 
Sorta like the above one but Shore shows way less suseptability to be getting finished than Timur does. Very slick BJJ could find himself getting a sub here. Could KO him too we've seen TImur get hurt good bit recently. Actually if you're the type to be risky with bets, tin foil fat, Timur seems to get finished or hurt multiple times in the second round. Shore in 2nd round is probably a juicy number.
 
Reed ITD push if GTD (+190):
 
So i think this is closer than the odds are showing and i wanted to just play Reed straight but its in London and you don't know if the judges are going to lean Cory if the fight is anything close. This probably does go to decision, but to say in a finish only senario where the crowd and home town advantage wont matter, that Cory is like 3 times more likely to be the one getting the finish is absurd. Reed isn't great but shes better than people think and Cory i feel lost her last fight and just hasn't looked all that great. And there's the constant theory shes young and training here and so this fight shes going to be so much improved, and maybe but i don't see it. Flip side Sijara is a massive 125er, and a good fighter at that. That doesn't just translate to proper sized, in not a bit smaller, Cory. If Cory does come out and look fantastic and so much improved than i will happily say i was wrong. And if you wanna do some mma math she beat Jasudavicious who mopped Hansen, who realistically beat Mckenna.
 
Durden/Mokaev Over 1.5 (-170):
 
I think this is going to be closer than people think, Mokaev being Dagestani doesn't mean **** if he grew up in the UK and fought and wrestled at that scene, which is well known to have a general lack of wrestling skills. A NCAA wrestler who has a fully matured body is going to be a lot more of a challenge than Mokaev is expecting. Think its close and goes to decision, maybe Mokaev finishes late when Cody starts gassing.
 
McCann ML (-140):
 
I'm honestly wierdly confident in Molly here, all of Carolina's wins are like super close and could easily be losses, and she doesn't have really any offensive wrestling or grappling, like that was beating Molly recently. I honestly think Molly could finish her after she wears on her for a good bit. But if its anything close and it goes to decision? That's right you guessed it! Its going to favor the UK fighter.

* Edited at 03.19.2022, 1:45 AM ET *