UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Gotcha, we're in agreement on Wood then.

Still waiting for lines to get to their peak on Sato, already have bets on Herbert, Reed. Regret not waiting a bit on Herbert as I got him at +400 and he then moved to +500 at the highest offer on my books (down to +475 last I checked).

wow a lot of dogs! Still if even one of them hits thats a good day.

I only bet parlays so I take less dog shots unless I really think they will win, the line movements don't really affect me because my bets are all parlays.

What about Shore as a dog? Or McCann by KO? I think those could potentially hit

Good luck man!

Already have Shore from earlier this week, got him at +145. Aspinall too though he's a pickem.
Oh and I actually have a bet on Durden too but only a .25u because that one feels quite unlikely, setup fight for Mokaev and all that. Still, +307 so another really wide line there.

I'm often tempted to bet at +300 lines and up since I very rarely cap any fighter to be greater than 75% likely to win. The sport is just too volatile and too much can change or impact a fighter since last we've seen them. Training and excercise regimen changes, diet, time off, injuries, personal life and just natural day to day variance in performance.

Herbert vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, SUB, R2
Topuria is on the rise and is a prodigy.

Pimblett vs. Vargas
Paddy Pimblett, TKO, R2
I like Baddy, I can't say more.

Volkov vs. Aspinall
Alexander Volkov, DEC
**** picking this fight. One of the harder picks in recent memory, I’m rooting for the new blood just to shake things up. But it’s hard to count out the leg kicks, jab, and clinch game of Volkov. I wish I had seen Aspinall face more legit strikers.

Allen vs. Hooker
Arnold Allen, TKO, R3
Hooker isn’t a featherweight. I can’t pick him here simply for that fact. Someone mentioned his victory over Gilbert Burns, which is a great win for Hooker at 155 because Burns was murdering himself to make that weight. Dan’s 145 career wasn’t a good look, and after having a rough go recently at 155 I can’t imagine going back down is going to favor him that much here. I think Allen boxes the ears off of him in the 2nd and 3rd.

Pimblett vs. Vargas
Paddy Pimblett, SUB, R1
Vargas has bad TDD. I actually favor Vargas in the stand up, but Pimblett is a ground and sub specialist, and I expect him to show up and show out for the home crowd.

Nelson vs. Sato
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R3
A lot of variables in this one. I’ll stay away from it, but it’s hard to count out Gunny when he’s finally facing a welterweight his size. He’s been really solid, even at the top of this division never really getting blown out of the water.

Herbert vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, SUB, R1
Good fight here, and this will be a good skills test for Topuria. We’ve seen him out physical a lot of featherweights, but I doubt he will be able to put it on Jai with just physicality. Gonna learn a lot from this bout about both men.

Grundy vs. Amirkhani
Makwan Amirkhani, DEC
Rather get ****** by a rusty spork than put any faith in either of these wrestlers. I think we’ll see a ******* baller first round though, like a hurricane blender of grappling. But I actually think Grundy gasses harder than Amirkhani as crazy as that sounds typing it out.

Abdurakhimov vs. Pavlovich
Shamil Abdurakhimov, DEC
Shamil P4P most overlooked dog on the card tonight. Pavlovich has a right hand from hell and not much else in the tape I watched. I legitimately doubt that Shamil actually grounds him, but Shamil isn’t a bad striker. Dude beat Daukaus for a while in the battle of left hooks until Daukaus started using his slender man arm reach to connect. I trust Shamil’s chin, cardio, and clinch work to take a clean UD.

Krylov vs. Craig
Nikita Krylov, DEC
Krylov isn’t dumb or arrogant. I expect a safe win here with a lot of guard pulling from Craig’s end.

Shore vs. Valiev
Jack Shore, DEC
Fight of the night. Who is going to be the real winner? Us.

Reed vs. McKenna
Cory McKenna, DEC
I like everything I see from McKenna. And she’s kind of wholesome. Not going to be riveted watching this fight, but I always enjoy new actually good talent in the female divisions. I believe both of these women are skilled and belong here.

Mokaev vs. Durden
Muhammad Mokaev, TKO, R3
Durden is like a flyweight Grundy but with even worse gas tank. Technically pretty sound, but my god if there’s one thing you have to have at flyweight it’s a gas tank.

Krylov vs. Craig
Paul Craig, SUB, R1
SCOTLAND THE BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAVEEEEEEEEEEE!

I have the utmost respect for Volkov but can’t shake this gut feeling Tom from across the pond is gonna absolutely murder him tomorrow. Expecting a statement win. War Aspinall 

I picked volkov so therefore Tom is a lock

This week our luck will change. I have a good feeling!

That said I did pick Aspinal lol

* Edited at 03.18.2022, 9:39 PM ET *

Parlay Locks:

Aspinall 

Paddy

Craig 

Pavlovich

This is the Core Four*

Volkov vs. Aspinall
Aspinall
Volkov has not looked at the peak of his powers. It seems to follow the amount of weight he can cut down and although he has cut down a bit for this fight, it won't be enough to keep up with how technical and clean Aspinall is.


Allen vs. Hooker
Allen
Going down a division to beat a contender is what a champion could do, Hooker is not that guy and can only be a name for Allen to take in Arnold's ascent. Though it will be a tough and close fight for Allen


Pimblett vs. Vargas
Pimblett
Paddy is being grassfed while the sharks in the light weight division eat grain


Nelson vs. Sato
Nelson
The odds against Sato speak for themselves. 2 of his last 3 fights have been losses by submission, he will continue this run


Herbert vs. Topuria
Topuria
Herbert's 2 losses have come from grapplers (and the one knocked him out with one punch) and his only win is against a striker looking for his head. Although Topuria possesses ko power he does not seek the head, like a seasoned boxer he goes to the body first. This route he takes gets him the ko or opens the door for the takedowns, which Herbert has not answered sufficiently thus far. Sure questions over Topuria moving up a weight class and only having a month to prepare but Jai is not the fighter that will ask the right questions


Grundy vs. Amirkhani
Grundy
I initially had Amirkhani in this one because he has a lot more ground control per round than Grundy and has fought twice as more per year than Mike but Amirkhani did not pass my eye test at the weigh-ins. He has not come to win this one, while Grundy is fighting for his terminally ill father. Sometimes hunger overpowers skill


Abdurakhimov vs. Pavlovich
Pavlovich 
Pavlovich has the reach and output to make this one quick. I bring this up because Abdurakhimov has lost by strikes to grapplers with lower output whilst Pavlovich has only lost to a striker with more out put than him. Abdurakhimov has lost 3 of his last 5 by knockout, there's questions over his chin. He is clearly in his decline, maybe 3 years ago in his twilight he would have what's necessary to win this one


Krylov vs. Craig
Craig
Krylov is a similar striker to Ankalaev however he has a lot more losses by submission. Craig has a lot of wins by submission and the confidence gained from stealing a win by submission from an undefeated Ankalaev will see him through


Shore vs. Valiev
Shore
Shore is too well rounded and technical. Valiev will want to scrap but will find a jab and cross instead




Reed vs. McKenna
McKenna
Reed and McKenna are similar boxing style strikers, mainly looking for the head. The difference is that McKenna trains at tam and so will be more inclined towards takedowns. She will strike with Reed to see if she can win on her feet but will find her advantage in the grappling exchanges


Mokaev vs. Durden
Mokaev
He has not fought in the ufc yet but when other fighters tell you to pay attention to upcoming talent, put your money on them

@rusty hopefully 🤞 

Live Dogs:

Sato - Gunnar hasnt fought in almost 3 years... Could have Ring Rust

Carolina - She can edge her way to a Dec Win and holds value

Shore - Momentum to stay undefeated

@sabbath best jab in the division goes to rob font

* Edited at 03.18.2022, 9:46 PM ET *

I’d still say it’s better than shores imo. His jab has gotten him to the top 5 

Shore is a beast tho