UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yeah big relief right there I thought half the card was jeopardized

That's nice to hear fight is still on or I just wasted a good couple of hours of my life.

Was considering a blindbet before on Aspinall when he was +105 but decided I needed to give it the full scrutiny. Decided to bet him just now at 1.95(-105) after capping the fight 60/40 in his favor.

The gastank as you mention is the one factor that we don't know much about for Aspinall, in both his pro fights that went into the 9th minute he lost, all of his wins was finished before then.
With that said I think even if Volkov can't be taken down whenever he is forced to grapple it really wears on his gastank. You could see it in his last fight vs Tybura where he really slowed down after rd1 and of course vs Blaydes where he was 10-8ed in the 2nd from being tired and getting pieced up on the feet as a result. Of course Blaydes is Blaydes and he didn't weigh as much then but 2 fights with similar look is still a pattern. He never collapses cardio-wise but he slows down to a pace where he is even slower than usual and consequently less dangerous.

I think Aspinall has a big speed advantage that he can leverage in this one, his hand speed is phenomenal. Coupled with his quick feet it gives him tremendous power. The greatest knock on him is how he backs away in a straight line with his hands down and leaning back. It's like textbook for how to get knocked out 101. I don't think Volkov is the fighter to punish that though, you'd need someone that can and are willing to explosively move forward to catch Tom.

I wouldn't be surprised if this goes the distance, both of these guys have good chins. I just think Aspinall is a bit younger and faster with a few more tools. Volkov is very technical but he fights in a very textbook way with not many surprises so he should be comparatively easy to prepare for compared to a lot of fighters.

That’s a good point. Volkov has gone 5 rounds many times tho so we know his gas tank is decent. I have to rewatch the tybura fight but I didn’t rememebr him looking tired (I could be wrong, I just remember the fight being an absolute snooze fest). We also don’t know if aspinall is even going to grapple, it’s just something he has in his arsenal. Volkov fights at a very slow pace so the speed of aspinall could be a problem. Aspinall has gone to decision once, but that was 9 years ago as an amateur. I also wonder if his speed will hold up in the later rounds

Another thing is that he the only guy to have a good kickboxing fight with Gane, because everyone else either lost bad to Gane and Francis was losing the kickboxing so he had to wresle, Volkov won the first and the 4th was debatable, also he’s other 2 lose and to Lewis in a flucky last second Ko, and the Blaydes lost which was wrestling 

I think Volkov only lost the stand up to Gane in the UFC and I don’t like how Aspinal himself said that he not ready for this level, Volkov is at the elite level at heavyweight, Aspinal has potenal sure, but is he elite yet???, maybe

* Edited at 03.14.2022, 2:12 PM ET *

Why is Topuria so far down the card, it should be right before the co-main

He’s the featured prelim. Bout order isn’t updated on this page yet

Volkov vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R2
hes the truth

Wood vs. Morales
Vince Morales, DEC
bias pick

The line on paddy is so ********. Then again i just bet the house pavlovich mokaev parlay. 

They call me the ChalkHunter. That would have been a cool username

Did a jack shore ,aspinall ,pavlovich and paddy parlay 

I still can’t believe shore is an underdog 

He'll be a pickem at match start.

The ufc just rearranged the bout order and we’ll, it’s terrible to say the least. Herbert vs topuria and McCann vs Carolina on the main card and pavlovich vs shamil and krylov vs Craig on the prelims. Also mokaev is now the opening fight on the card. I’m convinced the ufc puts bouts into a random order generator for fight nights 

Oh and shore vs valiev is now the 4th fight on the card, swapping places with amirkhani vs Grundy because that’s the fight we all wanted to see in the feature prelim, obviously.

Bout order is sickening 

It really is. You know they did a bad job when the prelims are better than the main card (main and co main excluded)

Call me crazy but Elise Reed looks like a very nice dog, going up a weight on short notice against Eubanks is a tough ask for anybody especially a fighter at the time with like 4-5 fights. Reed is more put together on the feet and think she will be alot harder to takedown at 115, especially McKenna being so young. Definitely will have to watch more tape on Mckenna.

Reed's split dec against Jasmine Judavicious tells me a lot arguably she shouldn't of won but to hang with how relentless Judavicious tells me I think Reed can deny takedowns late and keep it on the feet.

* Edited at 03.14.2022, 10:34 PM ET *

Question for all you mofos....when you say 'watch tape', how far back do you go? I get that you remember trends of fighters and may write down notes during the fight live, but are we talking 2-3 fights?

Love the back and forth, thanks guys.

If they fought someone similar in style that I know of I try to get it or any meaningful names or accomplishments is usually how I do it in that order.

@crimson I agree with that pick. My one worry is Elise reed constantly finds herself getting caught in subs from the tape I’ve seen. Granted, she’s quite decent at getting out of them but it’s something you really don’t like to see. That being said, she did reverse Jasmine multiple times and I guess Jasmine is better than I thought she was considering her debut performance. She’s also shown she can go 4 rounds no problem which is pretty nice 

@devo usually I only watch the 3 most recent fights of the fighter, especially when I’ve already seen them fight before and know their strengths and weaknesses and fighting styles. If they’re on a winstreak, I try to watch a loss as well so I know how they lost. If it’s a fighter I haven’t seen in a while/a fighter who always has exciting fights I try to watch every fight they have available 

* Edited at 03.14.2022, 10:43 PM ET *