UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Thewelshguy, very true, Murphy got that crackhead mentality. She might make it 5 rounds.

Cards insane 

@Plusmoneygod M'lord, I fear I have aggrieved you and such was never my intent. I did not wish to conjure up offence, but rather strove only to pay deference to another greater than myself, but surely lesser than yours, by way of comparison. Regrettably, I have failed. A man capable of throwing a football over a mountain is surely inadequate tribute for such a great as one with a picking percentage a mere 6.4% shy of the statistical rate that is achieved by picking the favourite every card.

I dare not challenge such a man. Nay, none should.

* Edited at 09.23.2021, 10:27 PM ET *

Ctfu ... In certain moments I have flashbacks to things told to me as a child... 

'some idiots aren't worth speaking to' ~ Grandma Plusmoneygod

Whatever you just said... It was Shakespearean... not William Shakespeare... Billy Shakespeare from the trailer park

All that to say you can't beat me and neither can the people who up voted your soliloquy full of words they don't understand haha. Thanks for the laugh tho, M'Lord M'Lord. Yea address me properly son. 


I don't pick every favorite but good luck with that gameplan. 

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 12:47 AM ET *

Uros Medic   vs.   Jalin Turner 


I'm going to pick Turner here  for exactly the same reason as Mikey did--though I will be doing so sans stolen wifi and at least one fish skeleton caught in a ragged beard.


For the uninitiated, he's 100% correct. It's impossible to trust anyone coming out of Alaska FC. It's easily one if not the worst promotions I've ever seen. It is a munted circus infested with part-timing crab fisherman and loggers, many of them surely alcoholics, and I have no faith in anyone fed into the UFC via it at all.


The tarantula isn't a world-beater but it's not like he's about to be cut either. His last two losses are to Frevola and Luque. Before picking Medic, I suggest watching a few of his bouts. You may notice that in fact he throws strikes as though he's physically explaining the punchline in a joke about  a fat man with short arms trying to swim butterfly.


And that's not great.


I'll go with the more proven commodity in Turner.

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 12:04 AM ET *

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 12:32 AM ET *

1:40 - 2:00 is the highlights that fight. Highlights is all I can seem to find but basically Chris was about to finish Azunna in round 1 and Azunna was saved by the bell. 2nd round Chris did look gassed but that was a 50 LB heavier Daukaus. I'm on alert for Daukaus's cardio now for sure

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 12:58 AM ET *

You misunderstand me m'lord. I have failed again. I will take no supper this evening and flagellate myself with the cat-o--nine-tails, accordingly. Perchance might I attempt to offer sufficient explanation?

The mathematical reality of picking UFC is such that if one were to choose the favourite every card, their statistical rate of success would be 68%. This would range between about a percentage point or slightly over occasionally on either side. If you pay attention, you may  see this probability born out by the Automaton present here in these black and white Halls, known as 'Oddsbot'. Oddsbot was created by the progenitor and overlord of Tapology to display betting lines, and to Troll users who think their powers of prediction can beat the market and who do not understand that if it could be beaten reliably, it would not exist.

Let me try by way of example:

Let us say you went to your local town square, somewhere in Rural Arkansas, and captured a wild pigeon. You give it a bath, name it Taylor-Sue after your mother, and paint its talons in her favourite colour scheme, which is leopard print.

You could, in fact, hack the universe and train it to have a greater picking percentage than even yours. All you would need to do is open a Tapology account for Taylor-Sue, navigate to any UFC card, hover your mouse icon over the fighter who is the odds on favourite, and place a single grain of corn on your left mouse button. Then, you would just need to bring over Taylor-sue and have her pick off that single grain, thus depressing the button in the process.

You would simply need to repeat this process for every fight on the card until you had selected a possible winner from all events on it. And you would get a net success hit rate of about 68%, averaged out across several cards.

Regardless, I am sure m'lord you are not interested in the mere entrail-readings of a lowly three-toothed peasant smelling vaguely of unleavaned bread and urine such as myself. I will endeavour to do better.

* curtsies*

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 1:18 AM ET *

Oddsbot is at 70% rn, higher than me :(

I literally fell asleep trying to read the first paragraph then stopped. Why buy Nyquil when you can try to read what a ******** has to say ctfu

whatever you wrote, Baldric Eggling you can't beat me. Your pick % is 0% ...work on that. you talk more in forum then you do anything else

Lawler vs. Diaz II
Nick Diaz, DEC
Honestly, I probably shouldn't have spent as much time thinking about this. I'll take Diaz.

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 2:18 AM ET *

I don't see Diaz having a chance in there to be honest. I expect him to be very slow and rusty. 

Valentinas fights are about how much will she dominate the opponent. No question if she loses this

Maximov vs. Brundage
Nick Maximov
Maximov has good wrestling.

Can anyone make a case for picking Modafferi? 

@Daebak I've got a few props on Santos so Roxy will probably win.

* Edited at 09.24.2021, 2:58 AM ET *

As far as low level guys who are barely in the UFC, I really like Jalin Turner’s game. He’s rightly the massive dog here. But I think it’ll be an interesting fight. He hits hard, has his crazy reach, and can lock up subs from almost any angle. Medic is gonna go far, but this might be a tricky speed bump. 

Hooker vs. Haqparast
Nasrat Haqparast, DEC
No tape watched. I dont like Hooker

Medic vs. Turner
Uros Medic, TKO, R1
Tough Pick - Medic is a tough pick here. Turner has the experience, length, technique, but I just dont see a killer in him. Medic looks like he has some real power. Strong kicks and punch combos. Medic can hurt Turner with some body leg kicks, and win this fight. Look for dancing around and feeling each other out early on until they lock horns. Turner looks like he doesnt mind fighting in the pocket and that is going to be BAD for Turner. Going with Hype over experience here. Riskiest pick of the night

Maximov vs. Brundage
Nick Maximov, DEC
No tape watched. Taking Maximov because Brundage is short notice NON Striker.

Morales vs. Pearce
Omar Morales, TKO, R2
Lock Pick - Omar is just better in every area of MMA. JP is a good up and comer but Omar has excellent defensive boxing. He is not going to just sit there and eat punches like Kai Kamaka.. He is not going to gas out and be taken down by falling over on him. Omar is going to push the pace and avoid most of what JP has to throw at him. Morales is like a forward pushing counter puncher. He strikes with force and he is going to hurt JP early. Most people are saying Omar doesnt have finishing power, but he can pull out the finish over a weaker JP who just isnt going to be able to catch Omar with anything special.

Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, R2
Lock Pick

Shevchenko vs. Murphy
Valentina Shevchenko, SUB, R1
Lock Pick

Andrade vs. Calvillo
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
Lock Pick

....I'm not interesting in being a detective for this one...

All I know is that historically, razor blades does not do well again giant black men who carry power like I carry my emotional baggage. I don't want to, but I have to bet on Jr. I hate this sport.