UFC on ESPN+ 3: Błachowicz vs. Santos

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Ismagulov vs. Alvarez
Damir Ismagulov, SUB, R3
all mine

Surprised Dwight grant is underdog here thought he should be slight favorate 

Same with struve hoping he will get the w has to be his last shot in the ufc 

This should actually be a pretty decent card, I like a lot of the matchups. I don’t know why but I like Diego Ferreira to fade Khabilov late, maybe steal a decision. Texas represent!

Ismagulov Vs Alvarez
Somebody said here that Ismagulov wasn't impressive in his debut. I thought he was, I thought he dominated and is really high level. His opponent here, I don't know him but has a padded record from his regional scene in spain facing guys that nobody heard of. He should not be up to the challenge. 
Outcome: Ismagulov Dec

Khabilov Vs Ferreira.
I don't remember Ferreira. I saw one fight where he won quick but don't remember him. I know he is ranked and has many good wins over many good fighters. Khabilov is really good. This should be very interesting. Really high level fighters in a very competitive division.
Outcome: I don't know xD

Prazeres Vs Naurdiev
I don't know Naurdiev but based on what everyone is saying, this is a bit too much for him even though he is a good fighter. He won't ko or sub Prazeres, and also doesn't have the skills to win a decision based on Prazeres style. Prazeres is 25-2 and never been finished so he knows how to win against overmatched opponents. That's why I decided to bet money on him. It's super risky because I won't win much and I don't really know Naurdiev but I think it's a pretty logical result for Prazeres to win.
Outcome: Prazeres Sub Rd2

Hadzovik Vs Reyes
I remember both. Strikers. Reyes seemed more explosive but I'm not really sure that he is a better striker here. Vick outclassed him but Hadzovik is not on the same level as Vick. Not sure who could win here. It will be interesting to see who is better.
Outcome: I also don't know 

Robertson Vs Macedo
I think Robertson wins. On every fight she's had, she has found a way to take down each opponent (win or lose). Macedo didn't seem to have a good takedown defense, she even rested on her back in the ground against Lee. WMMA doesn't really have many one strike knockouts for her to pull an upset that way. So I put money on this because I think is a pretty obvious Robertson takes down and then sub.
Outcome: Robertson Sub Rd1

Teymur Vs Fishgold
I remember Teymur. He is not good, nothing like his brother. I don't remember Fishgold, but he seems low level too. But I can't comment with just that.
Outcome: I don't know

Pedersoli Vs Grant
I honestly don't get how Grant is the underdog, but the signed "contenders" have dissapointed me on the UFC. They looked awesome in the show but the UFC is very different apparentely. That's why I won't put money on him, I can't judge his skill for that fight and wasn't impressive against Ottow. Still, I don't think Pedersoli will win or be the favourite. Should I bet money here? Grant is at +125
Outcome: Grant decision

Ankalaev Vs Farias
Anakalev is good but don't know the other guy
Outcome: I don't know

Yan Vs Dobson
Yan should win after seing Dobson struggle against Rivera. But I won't put money here because Dobson is the better wrestler and faster for being a flyweight. He can grind a decision and in the 135 division, knockouts are not as common as in other divisions. Still, most likely scenario is Yan outworking Dobson on their feet like Rivera did.
Outcome: Yan decision

Carmouche Vs Pudilova
I put money on Carmouche. I think she will neutralize Pudilova with her wrestling here. Liz is elite level but Pudilova (even though she is a good fighter) haven't really beaten or faced anyone with those skills yet and I think it will be too much for her.
Outcome: Carmouche Decision

Villante Vs Oleksiej...
I remember this polish guy. He beat Rountree with a very smart gameplan. He has a great jab and finish his combinations with takedowns. He should win if he fights smart but I'm done betting money for or against Villante. So I won't put money here.
Oleksiej.... Decision

Struve Vs Lima
Even though Struve is coming out of 3 losses, the opponents were much better than this Lima. I put money on Struve at +110. I think is a good bet. Lima is not even a real heavyweight and even at LHW lost to every opponent that wasn't bad.
Struve Sub Rd1

Santos Vs Blachowitcz
This is a great fight. Jan beat Cannonier and Manuwa, so he can handle great strikers and is really good on the ground as was seen against Krylov. Santos knocked out Smith and Anders and showed against Holland and on those fights that he is a really well rounded fighter and pretty big for a middleweight. On top of that, I don't think Jan has the power to KO him like Branch did but at the same time, Jan has fought against killers and has never really been knocked out. I don't know if they can finish each other but this is LHW so it can happen.
Outcome: I have no idea but I'm really excited for this fight. It's the most interesting of the card for me. Winner should face Jones Vs Smith winner.

* Edited at 02.23.2019, 7:00 AM ET *

Prazeres vs. Naurdiev
Michel Prazeres, SUB, R3
You

Khabilov vs. Ferreira
Rustam Khabilov, DEC
Not a lot of confidence in this pick.

Struve vs. Rogério de Lima
Stefan Struve, DEC
I reallyyyy dnt know here. Struve has always been kinda annoying to me. He's this massive dude with an even longer reach than Jon Jones (84½") , but he negates it. It's like he never fully understood how to use his length. And the other thing. His chin. His con was ALREADY tested and it failed miserably. literally got his chin cracked in half. And he seems to get injured easily. He's definitely War Torn. Annnd against a guy with power, it's not a goood mix..... You'd think. However Marcós Rógerio de Lima ISN'T THAT GREAT either.. Annnd he's gotta make up for an absurdly ridonkulous 11½ reach disadvantage, (Which is really only like 5" coz Struve dnt know how to use it right) Either way, I feel more confident in Struve winning a decision, than I do about de Lima winning by KO.

Villante vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, DEC
I just realized this lookin at the tale of the tape. Yesterday was Michal Olekseijçzuk's Birthday. Just turned 24. (Makes me feel old) Anyways, what a great gift that'd be. Makes me more confident to pick him. I just dnt know what it is, the plane trip, the foreign food, the home crowd booing him, Idk, but he seems to struggle a bit in foreign places.

ESPN2 prelim broadcast is up! I like midday fights.

So Klidson Farias subbed Johnny Walker. Interesting.

Well, at least we now know Alvarez can take a pretty good shot

I must be a sadist because I have a sudden matchmaking urge to see Alvarez trade chin bombs with Bryan Barberena

155 is ridiculously deep. Both of these guys are beasts.

What's up bruce
Whats up floyd
Whats up alias

MUCH better fight. 10-9 Ferreira. Nice ground work from both guys