UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Pavlovich is very good but he fights reckless, it worked with Derrick and Tai because they fight reckless too. Blaydes fought a very weird fight, trying to trade with Pavlovich. Tom seems to be good everywhere, and fights very composed. So he could just grapple Pavlovich and avoid that power.

Andrade vs. Dern
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
Again, another SUB win here. Dern has great submission ability, especially in the earlier parts of her fights & like the competition Dern has faced in such a small amount of time that she's been in the UFC so far. As stated before, I see that Dern tends to get her SUB wins in RD 1 of her bouts & if that doesn't work it tends to go to a DEC, and also that Andrade lately has lost in the middle part of her bouts by leaving herself open on the ground. Since its also WMMA, I wouldn't be surprised to see a DEC win either, but Ill for now comfortably take a 2nd RD SUB dub here for Dern viaaaaa RNC either standing or on the ground.

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Diego Lopes, SUB, R1
Easy SUB win for Lopes here. Guys becoming a fan favorite even after that L to Evloev. Sabatini has good wrestling but see him opening himself up to a submission during the early part of this fight

Van vs. Borjas
Kevin Borjas, TKO, R2
For sure a RD 2 KO here for either fighter here. I kinda like Borjas as the underdog here too not gonna lie so imma take a RD 2 body shot KO from Borjas.

Gordon vs. Madsen
Mark Madsen, DEC
Def a DEC here. Gordon always seems to be a step away form entering the Top 15 before being brought down to Earth and taking an L to a decent Lightweight. Madsen has some good DEC wins & alright competition.

Rębecki vs. Aliev
Mateusz Rębecki, SUB, R2
Armbar or Heel Hook SUB for Rebecki in RD 2.

Buzukja vs. Emmers
Jamall Emmers, DEC
For sure a DEC win here. Emmers has faced better competition in Jack Jenkins & Giga Chikadze & I see that experience being a factor in this fight.

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev
Nazim Sadykhov, DEC
Def see a RD 3 finish coming here by way of finish. Sadykhov has more ways to win this in my opinion and with Borshchev's weakness on the ground I can see this being a SUB win for Nazim in the later part of the third round most likely. Standing w/ Borshchev is dangerous & I think Nazim see's that a mile away. Update: I feel like a third round finish is rare in of itself & Borshchev's only losses are by DEC, so I see him being out wrestled & leading to a UD win for Sadykhov here.

Am I crazy for wanting to pick Costa ? 87% in favor of Erceg seems like a lot.

* Edited at 10.29.2023, 3:31 PM ET *

erceg is a fraudulent bjj nerd so yes, picking costa is the right move here. i think he's going to ko erceg or at the very least hurt him badly on the feet

Erceg vs Costa closely to 50/50 for me

I think costa has a good chance. Hes a very good grappler in his own right and has crazy power for a flyweight. My only problem is he has awful volume; just doesn’t throw anything. He looked better last fight but also gotta factor in that flick has no striking. Erceg is a pretty decent striker but has no head movement; if not here someone is gonna ko him bad eventually 

Killer double:
Rębecki + Saint Dennis

People!!!  The jon jones vs stipe fight, that fight WAS NEVERRRRR HAPPENING IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!!!!!! Dont let them fool you!!!  - . Pav and tom have been training. LET BE REAL . Nobody wants old stipe and aspinall already said PAV is the most dangerous in the UFC. Aspinall did not say jones is the most dangerous bc we all know DAMN WELL JJ will get demolished by pav and most likely lose to aspinall - Me and aspinall both know pav is the most dangerous aspinall said it him self i cant make this up. And now the world is about to know that pav is the most dangerous. Ngannou doesnt stand a chance, so lets break down this PAV fight for the rookies ….. first and foremost this fight will end quick with PAV WINNING , the  only POSSIBLE WAY THIS CAN GO TO DECISION OR EVEN LAST 2+ ROUNDS IS  IF TOM CONTROLLS THE FIGHT… now how will TOM control the fight? Will he go for takedowns and waste all his energy? Or Will he try to stand and go blow for blow with pav like curtis?  Curtis tried takedowns and we all see how that went idk why u think its diff for tommy boy …..  If aspinall cant take down pav and ALSO HOLD HIM DOWN AS WELL as taking him down , then aspinall will 1000000000% lose this fight QUICCKKK , ask your self how are you going to take down PAV  ANDDDDDDD hold him down?  Maybe any other fighter  tom can do it , but with pavlovich ITS NOT HAPPENING ,  these russians have been killing the UFC and PAV NEEDS TO SHOW HE IS THE TRUE RUSSIAN HW KING HE HAS SOOOOOOOOO MUCH TO PROVE!!!!!!!!  ,   Nodody can touch PAV,  i purchased ringside tickets for UFC 295 @ MSG , i am pavs biggest fan and if he wins this fight ima buy him a car ,   PAV IS GOING TO SHOW HOW A TRUE HW KINGS LOOKS FIGHTS AND ACTS , not those bums ngannou or jones or stipe , they all washed AF 

Bro doing tricks on it 

He forgot to brag about $40K bets but had to remind us he can afford ringside tickets & that he wants to buy Pav a car. 

He's desperate to let us to know 'he's not a peasant' lol

Apologies i get a little excited and sometimes get ahead of my self i dont want to sound harsh ,   nobody ever cares about tickets or money  . I try to keep everything MMA related so we are all on the same topic , everything else is moot and not relevant , sports is soooooooo  cool because nobody in the world knows the true outcome of sports events like God does so we are all the same at the end of the day as human beings , im not better than you and you are not better than me no matter if you make money or not is completely irrelevant, thats why i respect everyones outputs ,  if im being honest i really just want PAV to become the champion bc i think he deserves it and i personally think PAV is going to accomplish a lot for his career, he has everything to lose, his ego, sponsorships, respect and PUTIN  from russia is gonna see he is not the champ and it just wont look good for russia IMO - PAV has to prove him self bc people already doubt him winning this fight and if he loses then people will really doubt him   ,  and ii just love PAV as a fighter hes really great ,    The main event should be very good alex is looking TIP TOP 

so you just use geopolitical, socioeconomic meme analysis to pick fights? sounds awesome bro

i'd be very interested to know your thoughts on the fact that pavlovich was getting mauled on the ground by a kickboxer or the fact that he was getting tagged with a right cross over and over again by a wrestler

Excuse me sir nobody cares about your predictions bc you dont provide the people with winners , just back 2 back blow out losers , i assume you are from the UK so u can kiss your BF good night after he gets his head taken off ,  pavlovich is gonna destroy your tommy boy ,  aspinall can definitely beat any other HW in the UFC but not pavlovich , and okay im a professional sports bettor , lets go back to almost a full 5 years ago when he lost to a STEROID  overeem , if PAV would have won that fight would the odds be the same as they are now? Absolutely not pavlovich would have more juice on his line , thats why pav is a +110 bc he lost to overeem , remember this is sports and sports betting is a totally different world and you need to know how the book makers think so you can have a chance of winning , i bet $4,000 on pav fighting curtis and i have tickets to prove it. , now its $40,000 no games i got ringside tickets , I ACTUALLY DO THIS!!!!!!!! REAL LIFE!!! ….. everyboddyyy keeps talking bout that BUM overrm fight ,  that was years agoooo , you are going to see 11/11 who is the true champ!!!!!!!!   Thank me later? NO THANK ME NOW!!!! 

Surprised to see Pavlovich with the majority votes so far.

One thing is for sure, this fight will not go the distance.

I am leaning towards Aspinall due to his speed, boxing skills and overall more well rounded as a fighter. I believe short notice Aspinall is still a better fighter than full camp Pavlovich.

@baremaras 

Calling Reem a kickboxer does a great disservice to his skill set, dude is one of the most versatile HWs to ever do it. And if we want to discuss Pavlovich's defense, let's not forget that Tom got tagged by the ghost of Arlovski after he dumped his gas tank trying to finish him early.

Both guys are deadly offensively, Tom being the one able to give more different looks, but their defense remains an unknown since so few opponents have survived their attack. That being said, it's hard for me not to side with Sergei since he's the only one of the two to have actually gone the distance as a pro, having done so thrice (one of them even being a 5 rounder), while Aspinall hasn't seen a 3rd round since an amateur fight he had over a decade ago.

Pav's approach is more brute force and uglier than Tom's, so I don't begrudge anyone fading him, but I legitimately believe that Aspinall will be utterly ****** if he can't get his grappling going early. Tom's fast, but I'm not sold on him being an actual well rounded boxer - I think he's very gifted and has feasted on a lot of overmatched guys that have made him look greater than he actually is. Pavlovich's freakish reach might also catch him off guard early on.

I'm very glad we're getting this instead of Jones vs a semi-retired middle aged fireman.

Can someone explain the hype behind Sadykhov? He lost both rounds to Elder in his debut, before the doctor stopped the fight due to a cut. He also lost the first round to McKinney before McKinney made a mistake and got caught in a choke. You have to give him credit for causing the cut and capitalizing on a mistake, but he hasn't been dominant by any means. Maybe he wrestles Borshchev for 3 rounds, but he hasn't shown a willingness to wrestle in his first 2 fights. If he chooses to stand with Slava he's not winning this fight.

* Edited at 10.30.2023, 4:58 PM ET *

Gordon vs. Madsen
Mark Madsen, DEC
Madsen wins with his world class wrestling.

Ricci vs. Godinez
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
Ricci should get the decision in a competitive fight.

Simple answer is Terrance McKinny is overrated/overhyped and has been figured out, so when Sadykov beat him. Sadykov is over rated

Nazim is ufc level tho, bad fighter can’t survive McKinney round 1 

What I want to know is how good is Sadykhov's wrestling, and is he one to initiate the grappling early and often?  Lot of people seem to think it's a forgone conclusion he will dominate Slava Claus with wrestling/grappling.