UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

That sucks li jinglang wont get to ko chisea

Barnett has lost almost every minute of every UFC fight.
 

• Big Ben - Walked through him effortlessly. Barnett was completely outclassed on the feet and on the mat. Barnett almost exclusively threw superman punches or winging hooks - and it just did not work at all. He showed nothing on the ground and was looked gassed in the 2nd.

 

• Gian Villante - I don't even want to put any stock in this fight. Villante had been collecting paychecks for a while at that point. His physique at HW was brutal and his cardio/will to fight was even worse. All of that considered, Villante was still probably winning until he got caught with a ******* wheel kick.

• Buday - Terrible fight against a pretty terrible fighter. There just wasn’t really any good moments for Barnett in this fight. He more or less got held against the cage, got beat up in the 3rd after breaking a rib, and kind of  quit after an illegal blow to the back of the head. The only reason he even got hit on the back of the head was because he was turtling up against the cage and accepting the position Buday put him in. 
  • The Sherman fight will look nothing like this, but just not a good look IMO.

• Collier - Collier put it on Barnett in the 1st round. Got the knockdown in the first 30 seconds then completely gassed himself going for the finisht. He looked for the choke at the end of the round and that looked to be the last of his gas tank. The tide really seemed to turn because Collier gassed more than Barnett doing anything significant. The reason Barnett even wound up in top position was because Collier went for the takedown and sort of just fell. Collier then put up 0 resistance once this hit the floor. This is Barnett's best performance and he was losing the fight pretty easily until he wasn’t. 
  • **Also important to remember the 5'9" Barnett MISSED WEIGHT in this fight. Kind of gets lost in the sauce because of how exciting this fight was.

I see this as a spot MMA math doesn't work. 

• Collier capitalized on Sherman's biggest weakness (grappling) and Barnett took advantage of Collier gassing, while cardio is Sherman's biggest strength. 
• Collier out grappled Sherman and Barnett is a kick boxer who has attempted 0 takedowns so far. 
  • The distance strikes were about even (12 to 10 significant strikes) in the Sherman/Collier fight, and Sherman had the biggest moment on the feet. It was the takedown and submission game of Collier that Sherman could not handle.
• Barnett technically did finish Collier from top position, but he only wound up on top because of a bad takedown and gas tank from Collier. It also looked like he only stayed on top because Collier had nothing left. It wasn't really a resounding endorsement of Barnett's ground game. There is a world he could do that to Sherman, but I don't see how he gets top position unless he lands a big strike. 

 
Sherman has a solid chin and he won't tire out. 

• Sherman has not been KO'd since 2018. 
  • Sakai was the last one to get him via ground and pound in 2018 and Abdurakhimov put him out earlier that year.
• Every HW is going to get knocked out and one who takes as many punches as Sherman is 100% going to get knocked out. But then you see some of the strike totals in his fights and you wonder how he hasn't been knocked out more. This isn't a great thing, but it is definitely something.
• Meanwhile Barnett won his 2 UFC via KO and this is how he did it - (1) Either went even, or was losing to Villante. Then he landed a wheel kick (2) Got beat up by Collier until Collier basically fell over from exhaustion and he ground and pounded him out of there. 
  • This doesn't feel like a winning formular against almost anyone, even Chase Sherman. Land the wheel kick once, shame on you; land it twice, shame on me.

I'm curious how Barnett will handle the leg kicks.

• Sherman is going to attack the legs. Here are some of his totals:
  • 25 of 28 against Cortes-Acosta, 19 of 21 against Vanderaa, 33 of 33 against Porter. 17 of 18 against Arlovski, 11 of 15 against Sakai, & 11 of 15 against Villanueva.
• We have yet to see any of Barnett's UFC opponents kick his legs and I could see Sherman making it difficult for Barnett  to get on the inside with the leg kicks. 
• Barnett throws a TON of lunging punches because of his height. 
  • That leg kick is really going to sting if Sherman catches him while he lunges forward and has his weight on it.
• If Sherman beats up Barnett's leg enough it could limit Barnett's kicking game. 
  • This is probably the most important part of Barnett's striking. He doesn't offer much with his hands. Throws lots of lunging or looping punches and way too many superman punches - all of these strikes contribute to his gas tank issues.

 I just don’t see Barnett keeping pace with Sherman. 

• Barnett's last decision win is a split decision over Rashaun Jackson. 
  • Jackson had just been KO'd by Sherman in under a minute the fight before that. The 3 fights after Jackson faced Barnett he got KO'd in 31 seconds, 81 seconds, and 78 seconds. 
• Barnett's next decision win before that was against Robert Neal. 
  • Neal has a record of 4-6, hasn't fought since that fight, and was finished in every other loss of his career.

 
TLDR: I think Sherman is bad, I just think Barnett is worse.
 

• A bet on Barnett is a bet that Barnett lands with some crazy, flashy ****. 
  • Heavyweight is definitely the division you want to bet on a guy landing something wild and I would say Sherman is the perfect opponent to land anything on. But Sherman just doesn't stay down often and when he has stayed down it was from some pretty legit competition (I would take Sakai, Walt Harris, and Abdurakhimov over Barnett all day). 
  • I will also say Barnett's best moments were when his opponents allowed him to strike at distance. But outside of that wheel kick there really wasn't anything impressive with his stand up.
• When a line is this juicy against someone with Sherman's record I would never talk you out of making that bet. But I would caution you from putting any money on someone as bad as Barnett.
  •  I love the dude. He is a great story, all heart, and his last victory speech was one of my all-time favorites. But my money doesn't have feelings and I just think his skill level is well below the UFC standard. Running the tape back on him I think he is even WORSE than I remember. 
  • The dude also took serious damage in his last two fights. Possibly suffered a broken rib in his Buday fight and it looked like the entire left side of his face stopped working against Collier. Add in the fact he is getting older and missed weight in his last fight - I just don't like that recipe. Sherman has at least showed me that he can hang in there with someone like Arlovski.
    • I see Barnett a lot closer in skill level to Jared Vanderaa and Ike Villanueva than he is to Andrei Arlovski and Alex Romanov or even Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Parker Porter.

•  **For the record I will say I would have advised betting on Barnett against Collier. But  I do truly feel that fight had more to do with Collier gassing looking for the finish than anything else. I would still take Collier in a rematch. I think Collier would just decide to not fight like he is Daniel da Silva/Lacerda and easily put Barnett away.

 Fun fact: Somehow both these dudes got knocked out by Alex Nicholson. Woof woof.

Barnett vs. Sherman
Chase Sherman, DEC
I really don't know how to feel about those two fighters. Flahes of excellence trapped in mediocre bodies. Fun and boring to watch at the same time. Arguably the worst heavyweights on the UFC roaster, but they could headline any Bellator show like some old rock n roll superstars. It will probably be the weirdest heavyweight fight of all time, and if you know who's going to win you're a liar. Can't wait !!!

You talk sense. That's rare on here. I am on Sherman as well for those exact reasons. Unfortunately Barnett is not winning here

I think skill wise Barnett could beat Sherman but my issue is Barnett has taken crazy damage against everyone except Villante so far in the UFC. On the flip side, Barnett has shown a ton of toughness and clearly has a ******* chin. Sherman isn't the guy I think of when I think of the word "damage". 

So as much as I believe what Barnett did against Sherman wasn't a winning strategy I'm not wholeheartedly convinced he can't do something similar again given his opponent. 

I'm pretty much with everyone that Collier had an off night and probably beats Barnett 8/10 times, but when is Chase Sherman ever "on"? This guy has nothing but bad nights for the most part. 

CeeRod vs. Rosas is tough for me. I lean Rosas but I remember being extremley impressed with CeeRod when he fought JSP. 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but that was short notice, up a weight class and he didn't do bad at all against a guy who's now a fight away from having a ranking. 

Pereira vs. Adesanya II
Israel Adesanya, TKO, R3
izzy comes out looking better then ever and puts alex down

Burns vs. Masvidal
Gilbert Burns, TKO, R2
i think burns is all around way better then jorge i also think this is jorges last fight

Font vs. Yanez
Adrian Yanez, TKO, R2
idk maybe its just me fonts chin is probably ****** idc how good his jab is font looked good against aldo too before he started getting chicken legs yanez might not be the fastest starter but when he gets it going he really puts it on you expect a 2nd or 3rd round flurry of hooks and body shots that drop font and stop the fight

Rosas Jr. vs. Rodriguez
Christian Rodriguez, DEC
dog pick i think ceerod is actually pretty good not saying raul isnt super good for 18 he has some holes in his game i also like the differnce in reach for ceerod on top of the fact he has good sub defense even if he loses here i expect him to make this tough for raul

Holland vs. Ponzinibbio
Kevin Holland, TKO, R2
holland did get his ass beat but only stopped fighting cause his hand broke boy got a crimson chin cant say the same for ponzi now ponz does hit like a truck but doesnt turn it on until last minute i think holland gets it working early using his reach and range to pick apart ponzi by the second ponz will be impatient rush in and get dropped if this fight goes to the third tho i can see holland getting dropped in like the last minute i wouldnt be super confident in kevin

Calvillo vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, SUB, R3
calvillo why are you still fighting you know yourself you dont want to be in there anymore and loopy is strong on the feet and the mat calvillo is quite frankly ****** everywhere still would not bet because loopys biggest hole in her game is her fight iq

Waterson-Gomez vs. Pinheiro
Luana Pinheiro, DEC
i think luana is quite frankly **** and i hope waterson wins but ill just never pick someone who shadow boxes air for 25 straight

Garcia vs. Nuerdanbieke
Steve Garcia, TKO, R1
steve garcia in his last fight looked so aggressive its hard for me not to take him as the dog again nuerdanbieke will be much smaller in this fight and will have a harder time controlling the fight like he usually does i think steve closes this out early after lighting nuerdanbieke up with big shots early wobbling him and then putting him down maybe a bad stoppage to a shocking upset

Gastelum vs. Curtis
Kelvin Gastelum, DEC
honestly kelvin has a granite chin and good fast hands him and chris can most definitely have a back and forth contest gastelum wont be undersized and curtis is pretty slow even though he carries alot of power i think gastelum can do enough to steal the w and get the upset after this w tho he goes back on a L streak i just feel like this is the perfect fight for kelvin to win

Meerschaert vs. Pyfer
Joseph Pyfer, DEC
really really hard fight to call gm3 has that dog in him but every once in a blue gets absolutely steamrolled and against a hyped up prospect like pyfer i think its more then likely gm3 gets put out cold early i also see this staying on the feet unless pyfer gasses hard later rounds because his bjj is actually good

Hughes vs. Amorim
Jaqueline Amorim, SUB, R1
havent seen tape on Amorim but her record and ways of finish are telling me what i need to know hughes wins fights off just being a tougher fighter then her opponents i dont think that matters when a BJJ ace has you down on the mat i see Amorim making quick work of hughes

Barnett vs. Sherman
Chris Barnett, TKO, R2
what a sloppy fight barnett should win this in my opinion due to the fact that chase is not meant to win ufc fights it doesnt matter what he does he just cant win unless its against someone whos as well getting cut chase will probably have somewhat of a moment in the first round gas terribly and then beastboy steamrolls

Ogden vs. Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes, DEC
close fight tbh ogden is pretty good at grappling with not enough on the feet ignacio is much more well rounded with far superior striking if he can keep the fight standing for the majority hes going to beat ogden on the feet and win a UD even maybe get a 3rd round sub if ogden is hurt or gassed

I don't think the Bahamondes fight is close at all. He can stuff TDs from both stances & his tall height makes it more difficult to execute specific types of TDs. Not to mention the immediate threat of getting your neck choked is high. He got taken once by Zhu Rong and immediately reversed from bottom guard and stood up.
On the feet it's a clinic. Ogden has no KO power. He has a good jab & check hook but I've watched Bahamondes implement all the counters to those weapons 

Note - I'm sensing a 'bet the house' moment for me 

* Edited at 03.29.2023, 12:27 PM ET *

looking into it more im not worried about my ignacio pick
my picks that worry me are chris barnett as he just is not good but im not picking chase sherman
ceerod likely doesnt win but i like him at these odds and i think hes very well rounded 
yanez slightly wories me cause of fonts jab and ability to make the fight dirty and also wrestle
lastly adesanya i mean i hope izzy loses but im picking him because i still think hes the better mma fighter

You're not wrong, Ceerod fought Pearce on short notice around 7-10 days, up a weight class and it was his UFC debut.

It was the second time he faced Fight Ready and he switched camps to join them afterwards having trained at Roufussport before.

* Edited at 03.29.2023, 1:51 PM ET *

I had Alex going into the first fight, I believe in Alex more for the second. I doubt Izzy is going to improve that insanely in grappling and Pereira trains under Glover so he'll be making improvements just as much if not more. Pereira found Izzy's chin AGAIN, in MMA this time, which is a whole different realm of striking. Between the even better feel for Izzy's chin, the fact that Izzy was already narrowly dodging some of those monster left hooks all night, and the confidence boost Alex just got finishing Izzy with all the lights on him, something he'll be more used to now, Pereira is a confident pick for me. Not to mention the fact that Izzy is undoubtedly distraught after having everything he built **** on so brutally, MAJOR blow to his confidence for sure. Simply put, Pereira won with the odds against him, they're now in his favor much more than ever.

You're quite generous man...folks are lucky for your free insight.

Parlay team represent!

Appreciate it dude. 

Something I would also caution people to consider. Sherman has been trash tier in the UFC, but when he's been cut he has looked like a world beater. Went to Island Fights after the Sakai fight and earned 3 straight KOs with he longest fight going 4 minutes. Barnett was going to split decisions in Island Fights. I'm just baffled how he is at around 80% pick rate on this site. 

* Edited at 03.29.2023, 2:40 PM ET *

I honestly don't see what Izzy could possibly do differently in this fight. Pereira might just have his number. 

@mrlzdik my one issue with chase is his gas tank. I know you’d said it’s better than Barnett but imo it’s really not. Yes, he was able to get that one ko over vanderaa, but besides that he has almost never won a fight that’s gone past the first round. Sometimes it’s a cardio thing, but other times he will win the first round and then just do nothing. He just becomes a punching bag and cruises to a decision. Sometimes he is dead tired after a round and other times it just seems like he doesn’t wanna fight any longer. Now barnetts cardio is really bad as well; but he at least has heart, which is something chase is seriously lacking. Barnett at least shows up to fight and even if he’s hurt he’s gonna keep fighting (besides vs buday, that was a one sided beatdown). Maybe it’s just recency bias clouding my judgement (and the fact I hate chase Sherman), but I could legit see a scenario like barnetts last fight. Sherman comes out hard, throws with heat, and throws a lot in the first round. He is definitely gonna get the better of Barnett but where it gets interesting is if he hurts barnett. Now chase does have all but one of his wins by ko, but imo he doesn’t really hit that hard, he’s just a guy who gets ko’s by throwing down and eventually finding a shot; it’s not like he’s freakishly powerful for 265. I could see him dropping Barnett and then not being able to get him out of there and quitting in the later rounds. 

The thing for me with Sherman is he doesn’t care about record or winning, he just shows up to fight and collects his paycheck. If he’s tired, he’s gonna step off the gas, and with the exception of the vanderaa fight, he just does nothing after round 1. It’s likely he finishes Barnett early, but after round 1 this might turn into one of the ugliest fights we’ve ever seen and all disadvantages aside, I could see Barnett pulling a win out of his ass. Now, I realize how unlikely this is but both guys are as bad as you can get at 265; you have to expect the unexpected with them

* Edited at 03.29.2023, 2:49 PM ET *