UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

UFC 281 is finally here and what a card we have been blessed with after a couple of weeks of lower name value! Top to bottom, absolutely stacked with a fair amount of close fights that should be super exciting. If you consume longer-form video content - check out the link at the bottom of the post, we post every week with in-depth analysis/breakdowns and also post our betting card for free every week! Anyways, enough fluff - let's talk fights.

Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez

Interesting matchup IMO! Frankie retiring here and El Guapo looking for a big scalp on his resume. I actually think this has the ability to play out a lot closer than the odds would suggest. Gutierrez is a technical kickboxer, limited boxing combos with his game built off the back of the success of his variety of kicks. Frankie is a pressure volume boxer who works his hands to setup his wrestling, in recent times he's absorbed far too much damage and the durability has gone down. In saying that, Gutierrez isn't a HUGE power puncher but his technique and speed make up for it. If Edgar comes out quick early, gets a few TD's, I think he could roll a decision. Gutierrez has shown a propensity to be held down if he is able to be taken down which is a worry, especially against far worse competition. The thing that is swaying me to Gutierrez besides the obvious youth and lack of wear and tear is his ability to fight moving backwards, Frankie is going to be pushing forward constantly but Chris is comfortable to be on the outside so I expect him to be landing the more significant shots. I like the shot on Edgar by UD at decent plus money but the pick is going to be Gutierrez via UD.

Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler

Again, what a banger. Can't wait to see this one play out. If Chandler really wants to win, he needs to be working his wrestling. This ************ is so strong and explosive, I think if he can back Poirier up and shoot blast doubles, he is a great chance to win. BUT - we just haven't seen him fight intelligently in his UFC tenure. On the feet, I think it's Dustin. His boxing is far more technical, his guard is way more intelligent and his durability is much better. I expect Chandler to try and back Dustin up against the cage and explode with overhands to try and catch Dustin. I just don't think its likely. I think Dustin works off the back of his straight shots, his leg kicks when Chandler sets and eventually hurts Chandler with a step-through combo, hitting that cross as he closes distance and putting Chandler away in the late 2nd. Great fight though - taking Poirier via TKO RD 2.

Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang

Wow, talk about disrespected by the odds..... why is Weili not a bigger favourite? No, in all seriousness, I just struggle to see any area in which Esparza has success. Weili's counter wrestling has vastly improved and while Esparza is the more dominant wrestler, I think the strength of Weili will allow he to counter with hip throws and whizzer kicks and maintain dominant positions. On the feet, it's no comparison. I think Weili stuffs a few shots and hurts Carla, lands some vicious ground and pound and forces the ref to step in early. The pick is Weili Zhang via TKO RD 2.

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

Been waiting for this fight since the rumours of Pereira getting signed happened. Have had a solid read on Alex since his conversion to MMA, have perfectly picked every fight in his run so far - this isn't to brag, just to help justify I understand his game extremely well. Straight up, Israel has the edge in almost every area in the fight. Striking technique, 5 round experience, footwork and agility, striking defence... it goes on. But, there are a few crucial areas where he is at a disadvantage.

1. Mentality - huge in our sport. To me, he looked nervous at the presser. Fair enough, he might be locked in hence the lack of **** talk but to me, I read nervousness. Nothing more dangerous than a confident fighter.

2. Power - don't have to expand on this.The death touch is a real thing and it's scary, especially in 4 ounce gloves.

I think we need to write off the two prior fights, not because they aren't relevant but because both fighters have evolved so much. Alex is FAR improved, more commited, better mentality and technically he is much better. Israel for better or worse, is a far more calculated and intelligent striker, hence the boring decision wins. We have seen Israel have the length/size/reach advantage his whole career, he won't have that in this one. IMO, Israel comes in here, uses his footwork to stay on the outside and fight how we have seen recently. Less body attacks (too close in range) and just stick and move. Clear path to victory here. The stats clearly show that even though Izzy is fighting more careful, he is actually wearing more shots consistently and this is against strikers who are far, far less impressive and powerful than Pereira. I find it hard to see a world in which Pereira engages in a 25 minute kickboxing match in 4 ounce gloves and doesn't hurt Israel at some point. I think Israel has a lot more paths to victory and if I didnt have a clear inherent bias against him (he's cringey sorry IDC), I probably would side with him. BUT - mentality and momentum are huge. Taking 'Poatan' Periera via TKO RD 3.

Such a sick card. Will post our full betting card in here on Saturday morning AUS time - as I mentioned earlier, we post long-form video content doing in-depth technical analysis/breakdowns.... so if that's your thing, come join the community! Check out the full video here: 


let us know who you're backing. Enjoy friends

@420 

Is this your channel... !?

it is definitely a hard job to handle 4 fighters but I think they are good matchups for all 4 we will see

I'm thinking of playing Ulberg winning a Dec, or is that just a stupid thought?

I'd stay away from that fight ryan💪

I was in a sportsbook betting with fake money, and i was betting my picks only MMA & Boxing , and latter on every type of game that they had NBA - American Soccer - Hokey... etc... etc... after a while i had 10Ms !

@TARTARABLESS

3/4 of the fights on this card seem incredibly one sided at first glance. 

Hard to know bro, Negumogubogu is tough. But personally I see a late KO for Ulberg. Not confident in that though

It's called a dream. It happens when you are asleep 

Am I the only one not liking the bouth order? Reyes-Span and Azaitar-Frevola interest me much more then the 2 first on the main card.

**** You Little Tropical Beach 
Almost 13Ms and simple called truth, something that obviously you don't know... ! Take another L and ****  !

If Ulber wins, it'll probably via decision, cause Negumereanu is tough to crack. 

Over 1.5 in this one is a better bet. Maybe use it in a parlay. 

@Ascendant, I agree on Zhang vs Esparza. I've never seen such a disparity between Vegas odds and Tapology picks. That, and there's no way Zhang should be getting the shaft like that from the gamblers. 

If I were conspiracy-minded, I'd think the fix was in.

The Dan Hooker that fought Dustin beats the brakes off Puelles. Puelles standup and wrestling are subpar, if Dan can avoid the clinch and the fence he wins this. If Dan foolishly tries to wrestle he's probably gonna tap and I'm gonna snap.

Ulberg will sleep Negumereanu with either a counter left or a knee up the middle in round 1.

Man, I was watching Ulberg x Cherant and I guess we'll see something similar in this matchup against Nicolae, except that Negumereanu will be willing to trade shots in the pocket with more confidence than Cherant. 

Fabio clipped Ulberg 2 times in the first round of that fight. Is Nick gonna be able to do something like that ? 

I can't wait to see it !

A bet and a tap pick are not the same. Tap picks don't care about odds and betting (to win) doesn't care about fandom.

I see some youtube channels like Fight Night Picks often express astonishment at tap picks saying "this should be way closer" as if every tap pick wasn't at +100. Makes no sense to equate them to me, it's not the same thing at all.

Looking around the net, those odds look to be a glitch with Tapology. Happens.

https://fightodds.io/odds/4332/ufc-281-adesanya-vs-pereira

* Edited at 11.10.2022, 1:08 PM ET *