UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Volkanovski vs. Jung
Volkanovski, KO/TKO 
If Ortega fought Chan Sung Jung, Dan Ige fought the "Korean Zombie". Depending on who shows up tomorrow will determine how this fight goes. If Chan Sung Jung shows up, he could easily get slept in the 2nd or 3rd round. Volkanovski is on another level and is well over due for a finish. However, if the "Korean Zombie" shows up you have to at least give him a punchers chance. I believe the Zombie does indeed show tomorrow and makes this fight way closer than the odds suggest, but I still think Volk prevails with a late KO.

Sterling vs. Yan
Yan, KO/TKO
I don't expect this fight to go any different than the first time around minus the the illegal knee. Late finish for Yan. 

Burns vs. Chimaev
Chimaev, KO/TKO 
I gotta give Burns some respect and say he at least does what John Phillips did which was survive 5 minutes with this animal. I won't be surprised whatsoever if it doesn't last even that long. The size advantage just looks like it'll be too much. Khamzat is just so dangerous and I could see this fight ending a few different ways. 

Dern vs. Torres
Dern, SUB
Close fight but I think Dern eventually catches Torres in a compromising position and subs her. If this fight remains mostly on the feet Torres can win. I think both of these fighters are actually a little under-rated right now for different reasons but Dern is probably a tier above where Torres is overall if nothing else because her grappling is that good. 

Pichel vs. Madsen
Pichel, DEC
Pichel said, and I quote "I'm going to rely on my ****** strength". Good enough for me. In all seriousness, Madsen is very one dimensional but he is exceptional at that one dimension. Pichel is overall more skilled in my opinion and might actually get a late finish here. Closest fight on the card without question but I think Pichel's tank will be the difference. 

Garry vs. Weeks
Garry, KO/TKO
I see Garry having no issue here with his size/power advantage. 

Ladd vs. Pennington
Pennington, DEC
I think Ladds skill alone will make this close but I'm done picking her until I see some kind of return to form. She looked awful her last fight. Penningtons career losses are to fighters that are an entire tier above Ladd. Two of those losses are splits to Holm and Andrade and she's only ever been finished by Nunes in the 5th round. Shes the favorite despite being a replacement for a good reason. 


Gall vs. Mallot
Gall, decision
Mallot is skilled enough that I don't think Gall will be able to finish him but I see him getting out classed. Gall has way more relevant experience and looks a little better every time he fights regardless whether he wins or loses. Mallot probably needs an early finish here which I'm kind of torn over whether he can pull off. I could see a fight where Gall mostly dominates but Mallot makes it look closer by landing a few decent shots scattered throughout the fight. 

Oleinik vs. Vanderaa
Oleinik, SUB
The skill level here is so wide it's not even funny. If Vanderra can survive the first round his chances of winning increase exponentially. If this fight goes to a 3rd round he's likely all but won it. I think that first round is going to be really, really rough though. Oleinik has enough tools that if he gets a good hold of Vanderra it's pretty much over. 

Hernandez vs. Fremd
Hernandez, SUB
I think if Fremd had a full camp this could be a much closer fight but I'm still taking Fluffy. Dudes an absolute gangster who should get another finish here. He seems to struggle against bigger fighters but Fremd only has a slight reach advantage despite being much taller. Fremd is the perfect opponent for Fluffy coming off his long layoff and if he let's his hands go the way he did against Veira he'll drop Fremd sometime in the 2nd and either club him or sink in a choke. Fluffy does start kind of slow but I don't think Fremd will be able to really take advtange of this coming in on short notice.

Rodriguez vs. Hansen
Hansen, DEC
Getting big Bonterin/Schenll vibes here. I think Hansen can easily win a boring fight using the weight miss as an advantage. Dont sleep on Hansen just because you heard some OnlyFans jokes and her opponent is the shiny new toy. 

Arce vs. Santos
Santos, KO/TKO
I'm equally turned off by Arces weight miss as I am by Santos' inactivity. Santos has been booked previously against Rojo and Valiev for a reason. This dude is a saveage. If Arce has been compromised at all by this weight cut Santos is going to crumble him as long as he didn't completely forget how to fight in the last 2+ years. Santos' spinning back kick is seriously wicked. 

Some of you all act like Arce is some bum that is about to get washed easy.  I would pump the brakes for a second.

I know it's only a 1/2lb but I don't love the weight miss by Arce especially considering he used to be a 145. He's definitely no bum but Santos is only a slight dog for a reason. Santos is coming off a long lay off and has less experience but up until the two fights Arce had late last year he also hadn't fought since 2019.

It's only been two fights but Arce is having the same results he had at 145. He finished a guy whos since been cut but got finished by a ranked fighter (arguably one of the better 135ers right now but still). It's a very tough first UFC fight especially for a guy coming off a long layoff but all the film I've seen on Santos tells me he's worthy of the opportunity. 

Have I talked myself into taking Santos by KO since hearing Arce missed weight at +500? Yes. Yes I have. 

Yeah, Arce may get chin checked with some crazy spinning **** but he is much more technically sound, active, polished and faster.  I wouldn't just write him off.  Taking a small stab at +500 tko for Santos is fine.  I just wouldn't assume Arce is done for.

Arce has very good head movement. In actuality, it’s very hard to land those spinning kicks. I think he will be able to avoid most of if not all of them

Burns vs. Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R2
Khamzat looks huge next to Burns. I just don't see Burns being able to take advantage of his BJJ. I am buying the Chimaev hype the odds are high but value can be found on the ITD prop at -210. I see Khamzat finishing this fight rather then trying to peg the method or round I will be playing ITD to cash a winner.

Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie!

Current Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski (23-1, 11 KOs) will face Chan Sung Jung (17-6, 6 KOs) at UFC 273. Despite holding the size advantage, the Zombie is inconsistent. Meanwhile, Volkanovski hasn’t lost a fight since 2013. Roll with the champ to cash in!


UFC 273 – April 9th:
Chan Sung Jung (+475) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (-700)

* Edited at 04.08.2022, 10:15 PM ET *

Burns vs. Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R1
the king

Volkanovski vs. Jung
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
Volcanovski is too technical

Sterling vs. Yan II
Petr Yan, TKO, R4
Petr is a true fighter

Burns vs. Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R2
Khamzat is a special warrior

I would suck somebody off if it meant i could change my bet. I was high as kite when i bet piera. 

Yeah, betting on low level women mma favourites is never good business, i think it always dog or pass for me, with women MMA, the less skilled they are, the more volitile the fight is, and women MMA and heavyweights are volitile

* Edited at 04.09.2022, 2:58 AM ET *

Burns vs. Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R1
Rekt

In the last 9 years Mike Malott has spent 9 minutes fighting profesionally in cages.

* Edited at 04.09.2022, 5:22 AM ET *

My only issue with Pichel saying he's going to rely on strength to beat Madsen is that greco-roman olympian medalists are pretty strong too.

That said I think he was mostly shooting for a soundbyte.

Rodriguez vs. Hansen
Piera Rodriguez, DEC
Gimme Rodriguez.

Piera Rodriguez ML is The best bet this card

Last ufc event was one of my worst prediction nights. Let’s see if we can bounce back!

Im suffering from withdrawals. I need my fix ufc. I cant believe im saying this but ladd looks like a good bet.