UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yeah a submission, or even better more 12-6 elbows for another DQ 😆. 

Not very likely though, probably a decision. 

What a great fight.

Sergei the dominator Pavlovich 😄

Jones vs. Gane
Jon Jones, SUB, R2
I think the second this fight touches the mat and Jones is on top, he's gonna maul Ciryl and the submission will open up.

Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Alexa Grasso, DEC
I think Grasso will outstrike Shevchenko and beat her to positions in the grappling department to shock the world.

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov, SUB, R2
I think Shavkat takes his time feeling Geoff out in the first, and absolutely destroys him on the ground in the second.

Gamrot vs. Turner
Jalin Turner, TKO, R2
I think Gamrot really struggles with Jalin's length, and Jalin finds the chin in round 2 for a TKO.

Pickett vs. Nickal
Bo Nickal, SUB, R1
Easiest submission of all time, no shot this fight goes over two minutes.

Garbrandt vs. Jones
Cody Garbrandt, TKO, R2
I think Cody finds Trevin's chin early in the second for a bounce back KO. Cody please just win man.

Brunson vs. Du Plessis
Derek Brunson, DEC
Du Plessis is garbage off of his back, I think Brunson will put on a surprising performance like he did against Holland, or Du Plessis KO's him stiff in a minute, who knows?

Araujo vs. Ribas
Viviane Araujo, DEC
I think Araujo will defend the grappling pretty well and outstrike Ribas on the feet to win a decision.

Marquez vs. Barriault
Julian Marquez, TKO, R3
I think this will be a war, I think Marquez gets 3rd round TKO after having a hard time in the first two with Barriault's wrestling.

Machado Garry vs. Song
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R1
Ian Garry is a massive step above Song in the striking department, first round KO incoming.

Martinez vs. Saaiman
Cameron Saaiman, TKO, R2
I really like Mana but Saaiman is another future contender, I think he'll KO Mana after feeling him out in the first.

Penne vs. Ricci
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
I think this will actually end up being really close, but I think Ricci will edge it out on the scorecards.

Basharat vs. Blackshear
Farid Basharat, DEC
Farid should win this wherever it goes, he's a better striker and grappler.

Radzhabov vs. Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics, TKO, R1
Loik is really solid, but I think Ribovics is a future contender and he'll kick off his UFC career with a bang.

1. Jones vs Gane value bets over 1.5; 2.5; 3.5; 4.5 and full distance. I wouldn't recommend betting Jones at such odds knowing he hasn't fought in 3 years even though he hasn't been injured.

When betting Jones ask yourself these questions: What if he is not able to take Gane down? Can Jones outpoint possibly the best heavyweight striker in UFC history? 

We already know that judges love Jones so the likelihood of him losing a close decision is small. Gane was robbed vs Ngannou (If you know how to score a fight you will agree). 

Jones tends to start slow as well as Gane so i don't really see any big action first 2 rounds and they're not brawlers unlike Tuivasa and Pavlovich. 

Don't trick yourself thinking if it goes the distance Jones is gonna take it. Remember Gane vs Ngannou who would've thought. I've been betting for years and my mind just tells me DO NOT BET JONES, take the rounds it's way safer. 

In betting it's all about what's more probable than possible. What's more probable Jones winning or the fight going the distance? Knowing they're both not finishers. 

Jones greatest strength was never his speed though. He used his reach better than anyone and was terrific at handfighting and just controlling the pace with it and with pushkicks, teeps, obliques. Also let's not forget the eyepokes. He was better than anyone else at dictating the range where he usually had a great advantage to his opponent. That and countering with precision and timing. But just raw speed? No I don't think that was ever a standout trait of his.

I didn’t say gane is faster, I said he is very fast. Jones is fast, and we won’t know til the night, who is the faster man. Jones can definitely win this I never said he can’t, but they’re many questions on how he will perform up a weight class, against a natural sized heavy weight, who moves like a middleweight. The game of MMA has evolved so much over the years, an Gane is a perfect example of the evolution of the game. Gane’s range management is insane but so is Jones, the reason I think Gane’s is better because he has been active and been fighting at this new level of MMA. Who knows what Jones will look like especially after the Reyes fight where he was out struck for the first 3 rounds, that’s why I question it.This fight will be super competitive til the final minute, and can go either way. 

* Edited at 02.28.2023, 4:15 AM ET *

You are definitely right. MMA has evolved a lot since JJ was last in the cage and has he kept up? It really is a fascinating fight. The funny thing is I have a feeling that whoever ends up winning will make it look fairly dominant. Just a gut feeling. 

And Gliesie, who can forget the eye pokes. Could we even get a point deduction? That would be super interesting 

MMA hasn't evolved much at the higher weight classes since Jon has been away, many think it's regressed. Guys like Smith, Santos and Reyes were not steps up from past generation LHWs and if you think that, you probably haven't been watching very long. Even HW post Strikeforce merger when JDS, Cain and Stipe were all in or near their primes and we got Cormier, Overeem, Barnett, Werdum etc too..That was a better HW division than any other period in the UFC. 

So you think JDS is going to beat Aspinall, Gane or Pavlovich? MMA has most definitely evolved in the upper weight classes

* Edited at 02.28.2023, 6:40 AM ET *

Ngannou has revolutionized what it truly means to be an actual athletic freak and the possibility that comes along with that of what you get when you mold that athleticism into a respectable set of skills in the heavyweight division

Gane has revolutionized the heavyweight standards of movement, striking and overall durability and cardio

Aspinall and Jailton are slowly revolutionizing the presence of elite BJJ in the heavyweight division on top of having very very competent striking and movement (especially Aspinall)

and then on top of that you've got people like Blaydes who are keeping up the traditional wrestling, top control and GnP heavy approach of the heavyweight division, you've got Volkov who brought over actual technical and high level kickboxing while also carrying a very tall frame and lastly you still have your traditional freakish power, freakish chin heavyweights like Tuivasa and Pavlovich (Pavlovich is way way way more skilled than just his freakish power though)

and this is without mentioning the heavyweight prospects coming up like Gaziev, Rasul Magomedov, Berisha and Tynan off the top of my head



as far as 205 is concerned, obviously it's a very stale division at the moment and has most likely seen the least amount of progress out of all the divisions but even there, the future is pretty promising with prospects like Yakhyaev, Gadzhi Gadzhiev, Vladimir Petrenko, Alik Domnich, Murtaza Ali, Bruno Lopes, Gadzhiyasulov and Nurgozhay


now if you want to argue that LHW and HW haven't enjoyed the same level of progress that the lower weight divisions have enjoyed, sure you can very easily make that argument but in no way can you argue that it has regressed, that is insane

* Edited at 02.28.2023, 7:06 AM ET *

Good luck to everyone.

This would be a decent betting card if the best fighters weren't at obscene, unplayable odds. I've been finding prop bets a nightmare at the moment - maybe I should be picking more decisions? Heavyweights loving decisions, women getting finishes, strikers getting subs and vice versa. Jack Della taking necks, Jordan Leavitt KO'ing strikers dead, Hill easily out-grappling Glover, Volk working Islam to a close decision, Brenden Allen strangling Muniz... The list goes on. On average guys seem a lot more capable of stalling the fight out to a decision if there's a grappling advantage, only giving giving up the occasional choke rather than a fancy submission.

They both train at kill cliff... sus.

It's hard to ignore the ML parlays, there's a few clear mismatches on this card after all. Definitely agree that they're some strong picks. I've been up and down on Geoff Neal lasting the full 3 rounds, but the dude will be gassed by the 3rd round from all the grappling and Shavkat keeps coming. He surprised me putting a beating on Luque, but in hindsight Luque's best days may be behind him.