UFC 277: Peña vs. Nunes 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

lmao holy ****

that fight will be contender for fight of the night, and morono always has a monster round 1. it depends on round 2 for me, as i think semelsburger will take r3, but it's certainly closer than you make it out to be

* Edited at 07.27.2022, 1:59 AM ET *

Blood Diamond sounds like nickname to me, is it the same for you guys? I remember watching movie called Blood Diamond when I was kid. 

* Edited at 07.27.2022, 2:06 AM ET *

Blood "Mike Mathetha" Diamond

Alex Morono vs Matt Semelsberger 
Matt Semelsberger, DEC 
Really think Semelsberger is much more of sc****r on the feet than Morono and I believe it will stay on the feet for this fight as well. Has also a much better chin than Morono hate doing MMA math on any occasion but I can't help to look back on the Khaos Williams fight for both fighters where Semelsberger took numerous of big bombs and kept coming back with his own shots. Morono gets hit with a couple big bombs and gets flat lined in under 30 seconds also Semelsberger does have the wrestling in his back pocket too as shown in his last fight. So I believe Semelsberger will pick apart Morono put on a high pace and win 30-27 in all 3 judges scorecards. 

I say this about Kai record, even though he technically 24-9. He’s 12-2 since joining City kickboxing, joining City Kickboxing change his career, he’s record is one of those misleading ones

* Edited at 07.27.2022, 5:37 AM ET *

I am so tempted to bet On Kai as an underdog. However, my same reasoning as to why is the same reason that lost me money on Brad Riddell. Decisions....

You guys need to keep in mind that this is the other Cosce, he lost to Rowe because he got caught (and truthfully, Rowe is more dangerous than Blood Diamond), but in his Contender Series he scored a comeback late in the fight.

Louis is the one that went for broke and gassed against Palatnikov, I expect Orion to either sink a choke or just pound out Mike. Low-level fight but grappler > kickboxer most of the time.

Lewis vs. Pavlovich
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R2
The Russian guy is gonna lose. I saw his fight against Greene and he hasn't got what it takes to beat the Beast. This is just gonna be another day for Derrick Lewis.

Pantoja vs. Perez
Alexandre Pantoja, SUB, R2
As I have said in the past Pantoja is a really complete fighter: excellent boxing, KO power, kicking game, good wrestling and a truly effective BJJ, and being one of the most entertaining fighters to watch at flyweight. For his part, Alex Perez is coming off a poor performance in his title shot, a year and a half of inactivity, and faces a clear margin of disadvantage in range. Perez is dangerous with his KO power, but Pantoja has beaten KO Artist as Manel Kape in the past and had a close and even fight against Figgy. Pantoja comes with a lot of time between each fight, but even if he comes in a good run where he even managed to finish a really durable and unpredictable fighter like Brandon Royval. Benavidez showed how vulnerable Perez can be when he is taken to the ground. The fight will start from the striking, but I consider that if Pantoja manages to take and control Perez on the ground, he has a victory by SUB almost assured.

Ankalaev vs. Smith
Magomed Ankalaev, DEC
Ankalaev has had impressive victories like his KO against Dalcha and his brutal finish in the second fight against Cutelaba, but his run through the top 15 has been characterized by his mostly smart fights and looking to secure the scorecards. For his part, Smith is a fighter that will always be a test for his opponents, but I think he is already established in being a gatekeeper. Smith can be dangerous with his striking as he has many weapons like punches, elbows, knees and kicks. But he is up against an Ankalaev with good striking and excellent sambo, who clearly knows that in his last few fights Lionheart has had a lot of trouble with leg kicks to both the calfs and thighs. I see Ankalaev taking a dominant decision victory and establishing himself as a future title challenger.

Klose vs. García
Drakkar Klose, DEC
Klose has a great wrestling base and in his last fight he showed a phenomenal level of striking. Garcia, despite having most of his victories by submission, usually stays most of the fight standing and has not been very good at managing his fight pace at times. I don't doubt that Garcia is a tough guy (evidence of this is his short notice debut against Nasrat Hasqparat), but I think there is a difference in levels in a weight class with a big roster like the Lightweights: I think Klose will clearly prevail and make his way to a fight against Thiago Moses, Renato Moicano or Bobby Green that allows him to get closer to the top 15 again.

Negumereanu vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, TKO, R2
Negumereanu has the ability to take huge shots and attack with wild and untechnical strikes, he also works from the clinch with control and knees. Potieria looked very good in DWCS since being the underdog he managed to knock out a Łukasz Sudolski who was the favorite and is undefeated, in that fight he showed that he can defend himself in the clinch and knocked out Sudolski with airplane hooks that although they are not showy technically speaking , his KO power was considerable. Nick has a very good chin, but his striking defense is non-existent and something also considerable for the match-up is that despite his background in fighting I consider that his TDD is not very good: against Safarov who is not a really good fighter but has a base in sambo Nick was taken to the ground in every round and to take him down Safarov did nothing really spectacular, he just had to take him against the fence and use double legs takedowns. Ihor despite fighting from the stand up in DWCS is primarily a wrestler who can also use grappling. In his fight against Safarov despite being taken to the ground he was looking for leg locks, when Safarov passed guard Negumereanu had 0 defense on the ground taking heavy damage in the second and third rounds. I think so, Ihor uses his striking to drive Negumereanu against the cage and look to take him down, Ihor can control him and get a TKO by ground and pound or a submission in the first or second round. I usually doubt the DWCS Alumni in their debuts (especially last season), but it seems to me that Negumereanu has the most questionable 3-fight win streak currently in the UFC: 2 split decisions that could have easily gone to the other side (against Camur and Nzechukwu) and in the middle a TKO against Villanueva who was the lowest ranked LHW on the roster before his release. I believe that if Ihor's cardio is not finished in the first round, the Ukrainian should take the fight in any of the 3 ways, but if Negumereanu won it would be 4 wins in a row and it would make sense for him to have a fight close to the top 15, despite what I think about his winning streak.

Moreno vs. Kara-France II
Brandon Moreno
I'm just selecting Moreno because the first fight, it was not that big deal of a fight. Both fighters landed shots, DC said France won the third round, I say Moreno won all of them. Since then, Moreno has fought the brazillian champion in a trilogy fight that gives him confidence and experience. Moreno is definitely going to win this won. I have no idea about the method. If Kai Kara wins this fight, it's going to be an upset.

Peña vs. Nunes II
Amanda Nunes, TKO, R2
I got Amanda Nunes winning, headed for a third trilogy fight. Last time, Pena utilised the jab, it made Nunes dizzy but that was not a big deal either. With little bit of working on boxing, that jab can be countered. I don't know about how good ground game Nunes have but she's definitely gonna win this match. I'm selecting Nunes blindly based on hopes. Your brain has no idea how to react when it's dizzy, that's what exactly happened last time. This time, hopefully, Nunes will improve it and not make that mistake again.

https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-277-betting-guide

a 23 year old being -600. What could possibly go wrong.

 Against the guy who just won as a +350 in his last fight. 

Michael morales > Solomon renfro pretty significantly tho 

no i completely agree. the kids good. 

Just always have to pause when you see someone so young and green at some wild odds. So many things could go wrong lol look at the last 2 main events. 

Lol true that 

I feel like something that Amanda Nunes underestimated too much about Peña is that she truly wasn't afraid to fight her. For example: Holly Holm has a longer history and in analysis she represented a greater threat to Nunes than Peña, but Holm did not show much confidence during the fight, she was only working (effectively but with little volume) with leg kicks until Amanda managed to land the head kick that led to her First Round TKO. On the other hand, although Nunes beat Peña in the first round, when he was in the second round in the stand-up fight, Peña was not afraid and went to the clash against a better striker like Nunes, Amanda because of Peña's attitude. Added to the fact that he couldn't hurt her anymore, besides being more tired, she had a mental block and the fight ended as it did. Peña may not have a good striking technique, but he showed much more attitude than challengers like Megan Anderson, Raquel Pennington who from the moment the first bell already had the idea that they had no chance against Nunes. For revenge, although Nunes left the ATT, she has continued to work with several of her regular teammates and coaches. One factor that Nunes must take into account for the fight is that Peña does not quit during or before the fight like some of her rivals, if she returns to have a position as favorable as at the end of the first round, she has to make sure she gets a TKO or submission.