UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Rusty I don't pretend to know how they're doing it but the bookies are so much better at selling and pricing lines than they used to be it is truly incredible. They're in this to make a profit and spend tens of millions per year ensuring that they do.

It's not really different than the stock market. Most people are just absolutely ******** and will get slayed trading. They should just dump their money into an index fund and forget about it for ten years, but no--everybody believes they're Gordon Gecko.

If you're gambling on MMA with the goal of wealth creation in 2022, then you're ******* stupid. It's basically that simple. There was a time when there was value to be had in it for the punters, that time has passed.

This has been become increasingly clear to me the further I have stepped back from it and observed what happens, coldly. You are right to no longer gamble on it. Congratulations. You alone out of all the duning-kruger mouthbreathers on these boards have awoken from the spell of self-delusion.

You'll do well, and you'll be less stressed, and far happier.

At the end of the day these are still fistfights. No amount of “inside info” or sports analytics can make an objective algorithmic prediction. Vegas and oddsmakers win because it’s harder to predict something than not. Y’all are acting like it’s conspiratorial. 

And I know you’re trying to make a bigger point but I can’t get past looking at your sub-13/14 slate to read the six paragraphs about how anyone could’ve got 13/14 today. It’s okay you got a few wrong. Knowing when not to overthink it is part of it. It’s okay for things to be simple. Sometimes fighters are made favorites because they’re better and are going to win, and someone predicting outcomes should see it. 

Are we sure that Mazharov lost? At first, I thought I saw him getting his ass kicked with my own two eyes. However, I just got off the phone with Mazharov. It turns out he's still undefeated in the UFC and that fight never happened.

So if you look deep into it, Dcpredictions actually picked every winner.

It's Tapology who is wrong.

You are right, i was drink beers with him the whole night ... L☻L !

11/14 I will take it!

Trizano **** in my apple pie but my top 3 tickets cashed!

Anyone disappointed she didn't leave her socks in the Octagon?  One time for the culture!

* Edited at 06.04.2022, 7:31 PM ET *

If I only took favorites I’d have oddsbot pick %. I just didn’t like the puppies in the litter today. Wasn’t going  to rescue any of those dogs from the pound this time. 

Congrats to everyone who picked well today, favorite or dogs if your picks were right pat yourself on the back for being in check with reality. 

All we had to do was stay away from Trizano today to clean up. I myself, sadly, just couldn’t do it. 

Gaining a sense of achievement by picking well on a card where 13/14 favourites win is as ******** as being proud of winning 1000$ on an instant scratch-it because you rubbed the coating off with a quarter.

If you find yourself feeling rewarded by that, well--good luck to you.

You're going to need it.

Same loser every week talking negative and trying to act superior to complete strangers. Wasn’t even here during the fights just shows up after to insult people for picking correctly while the idiots 10 for 14 is posted next to his narcissistic ******** 

* Edited at 06.04.2022, 8:22 PM ET *

This was a weird card.  The mismatches were pretty clear.  How Herrig was a slight favorite didn't make sense, so I faded her.  I got sucked in to the Michailidis being bigger and Rinat being a bit of a fraud narrative.  He still might be a fraud but that was a bad look for Andreas.  That was the best Almeida ever looked.  I had Trizano on my fourth ticket of parlays for the whole card.  Cost me big.  I almost took the dog shot on Botehlo.  Glad I didn't.  I took a dog shot on Munoz ...oof.  That was a freak KO.  MAN DJ and Erin's fights were greasy.  I was high on Molina.  That was almost a mistake.  It happen.  Sometimes the breaks go your way.  Sometimes not so much.  Really looking forward to next week.  There are some real good opportunities to make some coin.

* Edited at 06.04.2022, 8:19 PM ET *

It’s just a weird vibe to go 10/14 on a day when all favorites win minus one, and yell at everyone else calling them ******s. Like any other card, fine. But today is the one day it doesn’t make sense to make predictions out to be this inscrutable magic. 

It’s clearly some sort personality disorder. The pattern is to consistent 

On a day where everyone is *almost* perfect shouldn’t the takeaway be “sometimes this makes sense” and not “this sport is impossible to predict”?

Kinda just seems like externalizing a little embarrassment. Which is a weird self report. No one was coming for you. 

only thing I disliked about this card was Molina getting a ******* 30-27 somehow, and Mark Smith apparently not being aware he can pause a fight to take points away for fence grabs

Some favs won because of weird decisions.


Knowing when to bet a fav and when to bet a dog is a skill. If you don’t like it then be better. 

If you got 2/3 of your picks right, then that is winning in the ufc prediction game. 

The only people that should be crying about so many favs winning, are people on the wrong end of it. 

Celebrate each other or shut the F up. 

That being said…. I like disagreement and civil discord so keep stirring the pot you cheeky bastards. 

Great call on the Blanchfield finish, again.  I thought that thing was going to be Blanchfield decision all day.  It was a junk ass sub but I am sure a finish was a priority with how JJ called her out.

Also, nice job on your card.  You made all of the right decisions except for the most obvious pick on the card! That is crazy. Lol.  

* Edited at 06.04.2022, 11:53 PM ET *

@Erison You're still not getting it.

It has nothing to do with going 10/14. That's still a very good rate. The problem isn't that I care. The problem is that you are operating under the misconception that 13/`4 matters, and it doesn't--because that was the amount of favourites that won.


It would have been possible to go 13/14 on this event  with a bot that just picked the favourite. Zero human input or analysis required.

I'm not saying that 13/14 is a bad pick rate. It obviously isn't. What am I saying is the oddsmakers are so good at calculating probability now that there's ostensibly no reason not to tail them every card, and the entire process of picking fights based on 'analysis' is virtually pointless and unnecessary. That's if the goal is to hit the highest pick percentage possible--which is something you saddos seem to care about. I first twigged to this following that Polish kid's league game. Over the course of multiple games it became apparent that everybody either only equalled the bookies' picks, or achieved less than this, as a statistical average. In fact the probability that the bookies get a dog pick wrong absolutely plummets after about +125. I can't remember exactly, but it works out that they hit anything with a wider margin than that about 80% of the time.

There is literally nobody on this site who isn't cherry-picking cards who has a higher accuracy % than oddsbot. Nada. If I tracked your dog picks, you would lose to the oddsmakers the vast majority of the time. They would absolutely kick the living **** out of you.

And if that's the case (it is) then there's no point doing tape study or even thinking about the fights at all. You might as well just save yourself the time, roll through the scheduled events in an hour-long session and pick every favourite for the next 6 calendar months for every UFC event.

I'm not even really trying to insult anybody. The whole thing is just really, really ******* weird. It is an incredibly weird and depressing social phenomenon that so many people turn up to pick odds-on favourites and then feel as though they have achieved something when those odds-in favourites come through, because the same result could have been achieved by doing hours of fight research as doing absolutely no research at all. It's  almost like filling out the crossword puzzle from the answers at the back of the book.

Summarily, I think people on this site put far, far, far too much stock into their pick percentages, and grossly overestimate the value of having a high-average percentage. It seems to be at the forefront of every discussion, and inevitably this where most conflicts between members lead to. It also goes some way in explaining why people just scream 'robbery' when they get a pick wrong even if it  what they are referring to was objectively not a robbery at all. It's basically this kind of coefficient of ******ation leading to logical no-qaurter; they can't admit being wrong, but they also can't accept that they're be better off long-term by simply logging in, picking the favourites, and logging out. It's a double-ended ***** of dumb******y.

 

* Edited at 06.05.2022, 2:07 AM ET *

Nice card for betting so far. Some juicy bets but definitely hard build a good bet since many fights look close on the paper