UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I predict a 15 fight card will mysteriously drop 2 fights 48 hours before the event with no public  explanation and one gets rescheduled leaving 12 fights.
Possible reasons include: last minute renegotiating, my finger hurts, I forgot my cup, making the guy who flew the farthest make weight then rescheduling.

Really like those breakdowns and PRP you listed.

I think I may go with the same top ticket!

We have a lot of questions about this match, but I think that this match will be won by the one who needs to make minor adaptations in this case, it is Esparza. Namajunas has improved a lot of things since the first match but the style has remained the same except that she added more varied footwork to her game. She often did those snap kicks that don't make too much sense against Esparza caliber wrestlers, Esparza caught her kicks and sweeped every time. I think Esparza has that power of shortening angles and changing the rhythm of movement and takedown shots from different angles. He often knows the given center, moving backwards and shoulder feint - waiting for a reaction and exploding into a double leg. I believe that Namajunas with his movements can annul and make Esparza look sloppy, but I don't think Namajunas will be able to withstand that wrestling pressure. Eparza needs to keep his arms up constantly and move his head to be a thesis target I don’t believe in a knockout in either direction. I think Esparza is a fighter who finds it hard to catch a submission with the bottom positions because it’s been a thousand times. He is much stronger physically and I think he will be able to control Namajunas on the floor. I see a way for Namajunas to get this, and that is to side by side with gestures and by throwing a large volume make a bigger output and win the fight on some close decision.

Carla Esparza DEC

Oliveira is the most well-grounded fighter of all divisions at the moment, he lacks that natural hardness that he complements with his heart. I think that if he doesn't force a clean stand up, this should be his victory. Although I believe he is strong in the stand and there are some things that Gaethje doesn't like, and that is his thai stance that easily defends his lowkicks unless he manages to put Charles on his back leg and throw a lowkick with a serial combination. Oliveira's problem in standing can be that jab and uppercut that will be Gaeth's tactics. I think that they will both try to establish a rhythm with the jab, and whoever succeeds in that will have a great advantage in the stand. I think because of his Thai stance and grappling that Gaeth is afraid that Oliveira will be the one to dictate the fights and win this match.

Charles Oliveira SUB RD2

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 6:50 PM ET *

St. Preux vs. Rua II
Ovince St. Preux, TKO, R1
打撃サンプルー

Brown vs. Williams
Randy Brown, DEC
打撃ウィリアムズ、グラウンドブラウン

Chiasson vs. Dumont
Norma Dumont, DEC
打撃チアソン、グラップリングデュモント

Royval vs. Schnell
Brandon Royval, SUB, R3
打撃ロイバル

Ivanov vs. Rogério de Lima
Blagoy Ivanov, SUB, R2
打撃デリマ、レスリングイワノフ

Viewer discretion advised!

This is just a way to breakdown how a Pogey Rob Parlay works.  Mix and match, as you wish.  I probably will revise one last time, myself.  Something always comes up!

Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
Oliveira, SUB, R1
Oliveira won't want to stand and trade with Gaethje, and IMHO, Gaethje's wrestling is good enough to resist the TD, especially early on.  Flying submission from Oliveira.

Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza
Namajunas, SUB, R2
The Wittman camp will have drilled TDD and paths to victory from the guard.  Although Namajunas's stand up is probably plan A, Esparza's TDs force her to plan B, where she wins off her back.

Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
Chandler, DEC
El Cucuy won't die.  This will be the FOTN, with Chandler landing the more effective strikes.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 8:28 PM ET *

Who y’all got in that Trinaldo vs. Roberts matchup? I got my boy HOT CHOCOLATE by Dec

@ImRealUgly I have Trinaldo by DEC.  I think he'll have a slight wrestling edge, but that one should be super close.  Now I want some hot chocolate.

I like Roberts quite a bit.  Since going to Sanford MMA he has improved.  Trinaldo barely beat Dwight Grant.  In a pick em, Roberts has great value here.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 8:56 PM ET *

the older guys are the fan favorites ... so people will pick with their hearts instead heads.  

I like to see Gaethje get subbed again !!!   Going Oliveira on this one.
I expect Rose to lose her belt because she struggles against grapplers of any level.

Chandler vs El cucuy - I wish this fight was not made, because I like both to win and stay in UFC. but Dana White is about to clear some room on his roster  unless they are given the ole - Sam Alvey treatment --  lose 7 fights in a row and stick around.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 9:09 PM ET *

Thanks for responding guys, but yeah I really liked how Roberts looked in his last matchup against Emeev, and whether you think he won or not you can’t deny the fact that he looked way better. Also I was flipping my **** when he took Emeev down I couldn’t believe he was hanging in there with him in the grappling aspect. Also I liked the fact that he trains/has trained with Usman 

Trinaldo vs. Roberts
Francisco Trinaldo, DEC
The old man wins another one.

Look what he did to the terrorist loving POS before he battled with Emeev.  Whooped his assssss.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 9:22 PM ET *

Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R2
Been waiting on this fight for a long time. Justin really only has one way of beating Charles though imo and that's by KO. We've seen Charles get hit with big shots by both Chandler and Dustin and he recovered and won both times. I think the same will apply here. If this fight hits the mat at any point, the clear advantage will be seen for Charles. Even without a takedown Charles can still win by sub by backpacking Justin and locking in a RNC.

Namajunas vs. Esparza II
Rose Namajunas, DEC
Rose has evolved a lot from the first fight they had. I think Carla is going to be shooting constantly for takedowns. She might get some, but I think the difference in striking is going to be the deciding factor here. Rose is very technical and can pick Carla apart on the feet and she likely will work her way back to the feet if she is taken down.

Chandler vs. Ferguson
Michael Chandler, DEC
Both guys are in desperate need of a win. Chandler should fight smart and not gas himself looking for the KO and swinging wildly like he did against Gaethje. If Chandler stays composed, he will land some big shots that could rock Tony. The thing is, Tony is such a dog and unless Chandler can put him out cold, I don't see Tony getting finished. I'll pick Chandler decision but given the damage Tony has taken it wouldn't surprise me too much if Chandler puts him to sleep.

This matchup for Danny Roberts is so much better than Emeev after blantly fooking most of us over with that horrible decision.

Trinaldo is getting old, hasn't showed crazy power recently and Roberts can keep space if he doesn't get cracked early, it could be greasy!

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 10:03 PM ET *

St. Preux vs. Rua II
Ovince St. Preux, TKO, R1
Both guys are way past their prime. I'll lean the way of OSP by knockout

Cerrone vs. Lauzon
Donald Cerrone, DEC
I can't believe I'm actually picking Cowboy to win a fight in 2022. Both legends of the game, but the main difference I see is Cowboy has fought the much better competition despite getting finished. I still think he has enough left to get a win against Lauzon in his retirement fight.

I love Danny roberts but I’m a bit scared he could lose this close fight hope he wins 

I know Dwight Grant was really aggressive against Sergey but he had very little output and was walking backwards the whole fight against Trinaldo. 
(Even Trinaldo's output was lower than Grants.)

I really do feel as of right now that Roberts could just pick him from distance, simply just being the active and quicker fighter. But it is risky cause all it will take is 1 from Trinaldo.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 10:22 PM ET *

Hopefully nothing falls through. Gonna be a wild card. 

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 10:30 PM ET *

Just finished some tape on journey newson and man his fight with ricardo Ramos is hilarious. He almost gets ko’ed in the third round and then gets dangerously close to koing Ramos with leg kicks, but is still not fully there so he has no idea his opponents hurt