UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R2
打撃ゲイジー、クリンチオリベイラ

Namajunas vs. Esparza II
Carla Esparza, DEC
打撃ナマユナス、グラウンドエスパルザ

Chandler vs. Ferguson
Michael Chandler, DEC
打撃ファーガソン、グラウンドチャンドラー

Damn, Fiahlo fighting again already? That's wild

Yeah.  Lucky for him, he isn't fighting anyone very good.

Pretty crazy cuz usually when a fighter says they want to fight next week it’s cap. I guess fialho must have either pushed heavily, or the ufc really likes him. I’d say a little bit of both 

Also fialho is gonna brutally ko Vancamp; he’s not ufc level 

Nothing cap about it.  It's die time for Van Camp.

Facts. The ufc cut him after he pulled out against motta and now they resigned him to get sonned by fialho lol

That Gatto Vs Cortez fight is going to be very interesting. Def a hard one for me to pick.

Just saw VanCamp has been ko'd by Tom Shoaff from BKFC... 

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 1:20 PM ET *

Namajunas vs. Esparza II
Carla Esparza, DEC
"snooze fest" dec from carla who should win this fight quite easily as long as it doesnt stay on the feet for too long

Unpopular pick: Newson by dec

Fernie Garcia is one of the highest picks on the card (90%) but I'm far from impressed watching tape. 

Cardio is poor (See Jay Viola fight) 
Defence to left hooks and leg kicks is poor (See all fights)
Looking at his amatuer/pro record he has a few losses to low caliber fighters and questionable split decisions wins to low caliber fighters. 

I don't really rate Journey Newson either but I think he has showed he can perform decent against the likes of Ricardo Ramos in the UFC.



Most Confident Pick: Kleydson Rodrigues

Just see his fight with Santo Curatolo on the contender series to see why. Explosive striking, Good cardio, High fight IQ, Doesn't accept being on the ground and gets up lightning fast. A real talent.  

50% --- Oliveira-Fiahlo🔒
25% --- add Chandler-Royval🔒
10% --- add Roberts-Dumont🔒
5% --- add Williams-Namajunas🔒
4% --- add OSP-Rodrigues 🔒
3% --- add Garcia-Godinez 🔒
2% --- add Rogério-Gatto 🔒
1% --- add Lauzon ---POGEY ROB PARLAY PICK---🔒


So if you had a $200 dollar bank, you would bet

$100 --- Top Ticket (if this hits you pretty much break even)
$50 --- 2nd Ticket (if this hits you are doubling your money or better)
$20 --- 3rd Ticket (if this hits you can easily hedge on the main event)
$10 --- 4th Ticket (you can tell your wife she can get the curtains)
$8 --- 5th Ticket (drinks on the house)
$6 --- 6th Ticket (you are probably geeking out)
$4 --- 7th Ticket (mortgage is paid for a couple months)
$2 --- PRP Ticket (you will never hear from me again)


I am set on the top line.  If VanCamp beats Fialho, I am done giving advice for life.  This should be an easy win for Fialho.  I think Oliveira is going to win but he is slated at the top because the hedge out on Gaethje, depending on how many lines are live, is going to be perfect.

Michael Chandler should beat Ferguson at this point and time in 2022.  I don't know what else to say about it.  Ferguson is shopworn.  The only thing that worries me about Michael Chandler is his propensity to try and make fights entertaining rather than winning them.  Brandon Royval should beat Matt Schnell who is not only coming off of a loss but is going down a weight class.  I don't like anything about it for Schnell.  They have a very common recent opponent if you're into MMA math, as well (lol).

Danny Roberts his last 2 or 3 fights has been working with Henry Hooft at Sanford MMA and it has shown.  He is at a pick em' price right now and he has been beating guys who's last names end in -ev.  Trinaldo, meanwhile is going to be in his 3rd welterweight fight, is 43 years old, and is eeking out wins against Dwight Grant.  I think this is a great spot with a lot of value in Roberts.  That is why I am so confident in him.  Trinaldo is a scrappy, dirty, eye-poking, hard-nosed striker that loves to brawl and can take a punch.  But father time is going to show up here, in my opinion.  Norma Dumont is going to overpower Macy Chiasson.  Dumont is beating Aspen Ladd and Felicia Spencer.  Macy Chiasson is beating Shanna Young and Marion Reneau.  Watching them fight, Chiasson doesn't use her length to her advantage very well whatsoever.  One thing I noticed in the Länsberg and in the Moras fight (which she won by TKO), when she gets put on her back she has a tendency to accept it.  Meanwhile, Norma Dumont is a pretty accomplished grappler.  She is a brown belt in BJJ and black belt in Sanda w/ national championships to her name (https://mymmanews.com/meet-ufc-bw-fw-talent-sanda-national-champion-norma-dumont/).  I don't believe Chiasson is going to be able to just lean on Dumont for 3 rounds and pound on her.  Dumont also has clean and savvy boxing.  I think she pretty much has Chiasson's number here.  This is why she is on the third ticket.


Khaos Williams has proven to me time and time again that he is a problem.  I respect Randy Brown a lot but Khaos is on a run and I want to stay on this train and long as it keeps paying me.  I think Randy is the more well rounded fighter but Khaos is the more powerful one.  This might be the one that breaks the full card parlay, but I can't go against Khaos Williams.  He is our hometown hero in MMA, in South Bend, IN.  So, buyer beware.  But give me the goddamn Ox-Fighter.   As far as Thug Rose joining him on that 4th ticket, I think she gets her revenge in this rematch.  I worry about Thug Rose's mental toughness sometimes, as she seems to overreact to **** going on in her life.  But I can say the same thing about Esparza.  The way Esparza handled the Joanna loss was pretty sad.  She was a complete diva.  That being said, she is a skilled bad ass and the line on this fight is already off.  That is why Rose is further down the card.


OSP and Kleydson Rodrigues are both way steamed from where they should be.  That is why they are down on the fifth ticket.  I think Shogun is way worn but OSP is no spring chicken.  I am going with the more active fighter.  I don't think this is a pretty one either way.  Rodrigues should win but this is pretty low level with Vergara.


I love Garcia as a fighter.  I liked watching him in the regional scene and LFA.  I think he should win here.  I have very little faith in Journey Newson.  But, this is probably a pink slip fight for Newson and those fights always worry me.  Godinez and Carnelossi line is off.  I think it is more of a pick em but I am going with the more well rounded fighter.  I think Carnelossi is without a doubt on the sauce.  I have no proof, for the record!!! And maybe I should go with that. She has made a name for herself subbing Istella Nunes (who Sam Hughes just beat lol) and ground/pounding out Na Liang (who has been torn apart by every good fighter she has faced).  It was impressive that she beat Na Liang as she did because she really shouldn't have even been fighting.  She exited that camp with a slipped disc that was so bad she had to get surgery.  But she got cleared by the UFC and did her thing.  So, really I don't blame you if you pick Carnelossi and maybe I am the idiot with the soft spot for Godinez.  I just think that Godinez has shown to be game and this isn't a fight where she will be undersized.  This is going to be a close fight.  I don't think either fighter gets a finish and maybe FGTD is the play.  If you are on a book that limits your selections to twelve, this might be one you leave off.  I actually will be looking at the Split Decision props for this one.  I do think it is that close.  I am just slightly siding with Godinez.  


Rogério finally snapped his alternating win/loss rotation streak against Big Ben Rothwell and now he is getting plus money to go against good old Blavoy Ivanov who hasn't fought in two years and hasn't won a fight in 3 years, when he beat Tui Tuivasa 1.0??? Ok.  I will take a zero confidence shot on Rogério.  Basically, either Rogério get Ivanov out early or he gasses and Ivanov gets a decision win.  This is a terrible fight to invest in.  That is why it is so low on the priority list with the 7th ticket.  This is a pure dog or pass.  Gatto and Cortez.  This fight is awesome.  I love them both.  I keep going back and forth.  I am just taking Gatto on a gut feeling and I know some of these dogs are going to come through.  I feel this could be one of them.  If you are on Team Cortez, I completely get it.


Flipping the PRP pick.  I know the UFC is trying to get Cowboy a win.  But whenever the UFC tries anything like this, **** happens.  Whether it is Mike Jackson getting eye ****** and nut shot to death or Alex Morono cleaning out Cowboy's clock.  There is always some ****.  I know Cowboy should win this fight.  But now, they are going back down to 155.  Cowboy just fought at 170 last, so he isn't going to have 15 lbs of protection... He is as shopworn as his cowboy hat.  I cannot back him at -170.  I get it if you are picking cowboy, but I can't.  In all reality, you can leave this off of your parlay and/or bet it both ways guaranteeing at least one of them hits (or a push on both via draw).  I am going to take an absolute Hail Mary shot on Massachusetts' own Joe Lauzon.


I wouldn't listen to anything I say, because I am just an avid fan and have been capping this **** for years...but I am still an idiot like everyone else at the end of the day.  Good luck!

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 4:08 PM ET *

Just fyi, I think it would be very difficult for de lima to ko blagoy. Blagoy has a titanium chin; one of the best at hw

I am not that harsh on Garcia, but he is definitely low on my priority list of bets and I completely see your POV. Anytime you have a newcomer like Garcia fighting a UFC vet who is probably on a pink slip fight and is the underdog... Big red flags!!!  I am definitely going to keep my eye on these two during the week.  It is a sketchy fight.

Some of these dogs are going to come through and that guy shouldn't be a favorite on any level.  That is why I am not taking Blagoy.  It could be possible for Rogério to steal the first two rounds and hang on for dear life in the 3rd.  But... Yuck. What an ugly fight.  Hopefully it just gets cancelled.

And also... With some of these refs we have seen that we don't need a full KO to get the KO.  If Rogério can just get him in a corner curled for a little bit of time, some of these refs will step in and play hero ball for us 🤣🤣🤣.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 4:18 PM ET *

@thepro really? That’s interesting because I personally think blagoy is the better fighter everywhere. De lima has just been so inconsistent and while chinning Ben Rothwell was a pretty good win and his last win was also dominant, he’s still not really beating anyone good; in fact, because of rothwells departure, de lima still has not beaten anyone currently on the ufc roster lol! Now, blagoy is older, coming off of a massive layoff, and hasn’t been very impressive throughout his ufc tenure. That being said, I think he has the cardio and chin to outpoint de lima. De lima either tries to take your head off on the feet or try and take you down and lie on you the whole round. Despite being a black belt, he gets subbed like it’s nobodies business. Blagoy may not be primarily a wrestler, but he has an extensive background in sambo and judo (was almost in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics for judo and also has a win over fedor in combat sambo along with a few gold medals). I think he’s gonna sub de lima like most anyone else with decent grappling can. 

Also lol good point about the refs 

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 4:23 PM ET *

It isn't about Rogério being the better fighter.  All around, he isn't.  If he was the dog, I would be going with him.  Honestly, I might do a double hail Mary with both sides on this.  It is that he hasn't fought in 2 years and hasn't won in even longer.  And those were two very close split decision losses, no doubt.  But one thing I noticed about how he was taking those Lewis shots...  Like my man Chance the Rapper said: "I got that Juice".  

If I see these markings on his back on Friday, I will be flipping the pick to Blagoy's side.  We will surely know he is here to fight for our dollar.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 4:49 PM ET *

Lol that’s true. He is definitely on that Bulgarian sauce 

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 5:02 PM ET *

And either way you go, no one should ever be highly invested in Marcos Rogério de Lima fights.  They never go as planned.

That is also true. I remember thinking de lima was going to get outclassed by Big Ben and then he just ****s him up. Same with mo greene. Even though I knew it was a risky pick, I thought he would sub de lima and then de Lima’s fat ass sits on him for 14 minutes🤣

They just dropped the UFC 274 countdown, gonna watch it at work tonight. Seems like forever since we got one(aljo vs yan2), love the UFC coutdowns/embedded.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 5:30 PM ET *