UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yeah, 10-8s are pretty ******* arbitrary even with the judging criteria having changed. Another example is Vendramini getting as close to a finish against Ziam as you can get in the third, and it was still scored as a 10-9.

Watched some footage of Maddalena's new opponent and it's hard to glean much from quick finishes. Until I see him in a second round, I'll just peg him as a WW Randy Costa and back Jack to finish him in the second after surviving the first.

Betting wise this card is way better than the last. Still love the over on Barcelos/Henry at plus money, the over on Gravely/Saimon and the o1.5 on Viera/Turman. Wellington's a BJJ guy himself, so I think he can survive at least 1 round. Need to tape some things, but Topuria by sub, Pereira by KO and Frevola/Valdez DNGTD are things I like at first glance.

That costa comparison was the exact same thing I was thinking when I saw Pete. His tape looks good, and he’s probably going to look good in the striking realm, but I think he’s too green to even be in the ufc. He has one calendar year of pro experience and I noticed he’s lost everytime he doesn’t get the first round ko so as long as jack avoids big shots he should be fine. Jack della does usually get hit with something bad in most of his first rounds so I’m a little worried but I also think he’s very good so this should be a walk in the park

10-8's are problematic because it's just very difficult to tell how much something considered immediate visible impact has actually contributed to one fighter gaining dominance more significantly than cumulative damage for two reasons:

A) Cumulative damage generally doesn't become apparent until the following round after the score is in
B) Cumulative damage may actually contribute more significantly to dominance and the fight drawing closer to conclusion than immediate damage.

Say a fighter gets flashed twice in a round, but also lands some low-power shots that cause a minor nose bleed ( which may not even be visible) and also land a few low kicks that **** up their opponent's prop leg, but that fighter doesn't notice it due to adrenaline or whatnot, or otherwise doesn't limp or favour it in the round.

So the fighter that got the two knockdowns has a 10-8 in the bag, but he's also coming into the following round severely compromised. Meanwhile, the guy who got flashes has recovered completely and doesn't have a bung leg and can breathe properly. 

It's a messy, messy thing. But as I say, I don't think there's a perfect system. At the end of the day, you can only make value judgements on what can be seen.

* Edited at 01.16.2022, 5:08 PM ET *

Yeah, Jack is very hittable early but he looked as good as ever on the feet in the Contender Series. I think he'll be able to fight through the early onslaught and overwhelm Pete himself.

Who knows though, maybe Rodriguez is the WW McFedries.

Another fight that might follow that formula is Frevola/Valdez. Matt's chin is either there or isn't, but Gennaro was struggling with an Alaska FC can crusher, so idk. One thing's for sure, I think that fight won't hit the card. Either Matt gets a late sub over a gassed opponent, or he gets lamped early.

My thoughts exactly. His chin has only failed him in brawls once (I wouldn’t really call the McKinney fight a brawl and I’ll cut him some slack there because McKinney does that to everyone) and he’s got a pretty damn good chin honestly. He will also be the fresher guy without question so if he wants to make it dirty it’s just can he survive and get a finish when Valdez gasses out. I don’t think Valdez will come out swinging like he did on dwcs, because he fights much slower on tape, but Frevola can make him push that pace very easily so idk how the tank will hold up. 

I wish there were more draws in MMA in those close fights, I know it would slow down the ranking changes, but would be more fair imo

* Edited at 01.16.2022, 5:56 PM ET *

scoring system is bad but just like with democratic system, no one have invented or implemented a better one

* Edited at 01.16.2022, 5:59 PM ET *

N'Gannou vs Gane can be a tricky one, if I were to bet then my money would go on/with Ciryl Gane for sure lol.but without money/betting I would go with Francis N'Gannou based on his will and game plan I think carry's him on to victory.🍺📟🍕🍻     this fight/bout is tricky because you can look at how Ciryl Gane easily beat and out classed Derrick Lewis,then wonder how a second fight with N'Gannou and Derrick Lewis would of gone.Ciryl Gane is more of a well rounded fighter then N'Gannou,he's also faster and strong enough to where he can break Francis N'Gannou down and TKO him.sparring is just sparring if you look at the footage from the sparring tapes Ciryl Gane did look nice and comfortable getting off good shots,but you could also see in the footage was Francis N'Gannou's true will/warrior's will.surely in the footage's you can see N"Gannou comfortable as well,doing the right stuff by not panicking,staying calm when getting caught with strikes and pressing forward with his style and landing shots of his own.Francis did also try a few new things/other things as far as striking based on the footage, Gane's foot work,s speed,and technique is really good,unique and great in the footage's. it was clear and obvious definitely, for Francis N'Gannou to win ultimately i think he's going to have mix it up with everything like leg kicks,kicks to the legs,high kicks,wrestling,takedowns,and submission's.then there is just because Ciryl Gane easily beat Derrick Lewis and Francis N'Gannou could of lost to Derrick Lewis a second time doesn't necessarily mean that Gane can't get beat and end up loosing to N'Gannou.in the pro leagues with the best fighers in the world matching up and locking horns anybody can be beat at any time and get caught with something. 💯💯💥        The thing is does Francis N'Gannou's game plan,his warrior's will,and power beat Ciryl Gane.or will Ciryl Gane's technique,his techniques,speed,versatility, and IQ beat Francis N'Gannou.💥🎇🎆🎆💥🍺🍕🍺🍻🍕        ( I go with Ciryl Gane if I'm betting money lol.😂😸😭 but without betting/money I think Francis N'Gannou pulls it off with a smart game plan like he did against Stipe in his last fight)

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 2:16 AM ET *

Moreno vs Figgy 3
This will be a fight based on a better jab because both fighters will impose their desired pace with it. In this situation, volume and head movement are very important, the volume is on the side of Moreno while they both have excellent head movement, but Moreno knows how to counterattack from this while Figueiredo comes out with a lateral movement. In the first fight, Moreno showed the method of straight punches over side punches and successfully countered Figueiredo several times. I expect them both to be smarter and fight for that jab, Moreno to create pressure, pick up the pace and set up a blow to the body and potential takedown, output, while Figueiredo to buy space, control distance, reset his attacks etc ... I think that Figuieredo will be much more prepared for wrestling than when he trains with Cejudo and that it will be a very competitive match in all parts of the fight. I expect that they both score a takedown and that there will be fast scrambles on both sides and that in the ground floor Moreno and to finish as the bottom has a lot of chances to sweep the position over the bridge, kimura sweep etc ... I believe that Moreno will lead jab dance and that will win this fight.

Moreno DEC 48 47 x3

Ngannou vs Gane
I think there are two questions in this match, and is whether Gane is rhythmically metronomic enough in his movements, whether he will be able to go out late with each Ngannou's entry and whether Gane will implement his game plan mentally and physically. Jab, reset it every time it starts, go out laterally, feintoverloading and work from a kicking distance. Ngannou's only threat is long combinations in movement that he carries out with too much force, and I think Gane will annul that with his fast movements and his apple. I don't think there will be any wrestling on either side, Ngannou can easily fall into the guillotine if he tries to change the level and get into his legs. While if they come in later rounds and Ngannou's cardio starts to fall I think Gane will continue to do the fight on your feet and go to the finish.

Gane KO/TKO RD4

* Edited at 01.16.2022, 10:43 PM ET *

I have some decent picks for this card but I'm not that confident anymore.  Ramiz and Giga humbled me from the last card.  It's very easy to say it now that I told you so but damn I felt Ramiz was a lot better than he was.  Court McGee just manhandled him old school gritty UFC style. The only thing I made money on was Slava Claus winning by TKO in the 1st round but beyond that, it was not a good night for me.

These are some of my early picks for this card:

Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho ends inside the distance
Wellington Turman vs Rodolfo Vieira ends inside the distance
Michael Morales ml
Tony Gravely ml

I'm not sure about the others.  

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 1:43 AM ET *

Bro dont let one bad card affect you, have confidence in your picks, I think you are really good!

You are not the only one Ramiz caught out, I had faith in him too, and I still beleive he has a lot of potential. Do you know what I think went wrong? Fortis MMA and their stupid game plans again. He did not even attempt offensive wrestling, maybe one shot. Any bet that doofus Saif Sayud, the Napolean Bonaparte of MMA gave him a game plan to not attempt to take down Cort. One thing that I realized too late is that while Ramiz has good offensive wrestling his take down defense is horrible. Lesson learned and I am also fading any fighter from Fortis from now on, most over hyped gym in the world at the moment (that used to be Rufus Sport).

This card will be good, a lot of great spots on it and I am actually very confident about it.

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 2:11 AM ET *

Bro you just dropped some Hella wisdom with that last video :D :D :D 

I don't get why so many people are taking Moreno against Figueiredo. Strange to me. 

It's strange to me that you find that strange, Rusty. Moreno destroyed him in the rematch. He has gotten better and the figgys that he fought are the best figgys there will ever be. There's only so much you can change in a fighter when they have reached the vintage Figueredo has and whatever that is in this case, it's unlikely to be enough. Moreno has youth on his side. Superior conditioning. Superior ground game. He can take an absolute shellacking.

It will be very hard for Figgy to win.The longer the fight goes on, the more likely it is Moreno wins. Moreno is very, very hard to finish. -175 is about right. Bookies are on to it.

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 2:37 AM ET *

N'Gannou vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, TKO, R4
N'Gannou leaves his chin up in the air when he gets to swinging and I'm just praying Gane won't panic will be able to maneuver around and land consistently on Francis's chin and it's heavyweight, so expecting Gane to put it on N'Gannou late. Really like how Gane carries his power late into his fights. Also think Francis will be too hard to get down for Gane to plan for that.

Moreno vs. Figueiredo III
Deiveson Figueiredo, DEC
Gonna go with the boogeyman like how Cejudo sharpened Wheili's toolbox for that 2nd Rose fight even tho she arguly lost that fight. Not jumping off the train yet. Down goes the lego man!

Stamann vs. Nurmagomedov
Said Nurmagomedov, DEC
Hug fest goes to the cliff dwelling Dagestani...

Pereira vs. Fialho
Michel Pereira, TKO, R3
Like the fight later it goes. If Khaos Williams couldn't find the KO on Pereira, Fialho won't.

Vieira vs. Turman
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R2
Vieira due to Turman being smothered and gassed. + Vieira's standup hasn't looked bad just obvi cardio always a question mark for Rodolfo.

Morales vs. Giles
Michael Morales, SUB, R2
Love the reach advantage for Morales and liked how Morales grappling looked. Expecting a statement win.

Frevola vs. Valdéz
Matt Frevola, DEC
Do people remember that Patrik White fight? Valdez and White both looked trash, McKinney has caught fire and put Frevola out before it started, don't think his chin is gone. Just got caught by a surging prospect. Frevola can out grapple Valdez and should be able to hold his own on the feet.

Gravely vs. Oliveira
Tony Gravely, DEC
Expecting Gravely to bounce back, wanted to see a finish from Oliveira against Alday. Gravely is a tough out for anybody.

Jasudavicius vs. Hansen
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
This is 50/50 might have to watch more film. Jasudavicius has long randy standup that is pretty nice with the ability to keep the fight on the feet as seen on DWCS. Hansen's wrestling is questionable and really scares me. Think I'm edging Jasudavicius but not sure.

Barcelos vs. Henry
Raoni Barcelos, DEC
Barcelos is a hidden gem and still a prospect that has all around a great game. Henry is a solid prospect but Barcelos is a HARD debut.

Demopoulos vs. Juárez
Vanessa Demopoulos, DEC
Juarez simply has to show me something before I pick her over a title holder in Demopoulos. People are gonna look stupid for making Juarez the favorite.

Topuria vs. Jourdain
Ilia Topuria, TKO, R2
Ilia due to the power in the shots. Jourdain is coming of a decent war and don't think he can go shot for shot with Topuria.

Maddalena vs. Rodriguez
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R2
Maddalena is a **** eating wild man looking forward to this one. We'll see if Pete earns the name Pistol Pete.

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 2:50 AM ET *

Jourdain is sitting at +400. Topuria LOOKS really good, but who has he beat again?

@Rusty, thank you for the kind words and motivation.  In terms of Moreno vs Figgy, I want Moreno to win again so that they can end their series together once and for all.  If Figgy wins this 3rd fight especially by a close decision then they will make another 4th fight between the two and that would just be odd.  I want Moreno to win because there are other contenders on the horizon such as Pantoja who has beaten Moreno twice already before.  I want to see this new and improved version of Brandon Moreno against this version of Pantoja.

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 4:05 AM ET *

It kinda piss me off how the UFC didn't just rebook Evloev vs Topuira, Evloev got covid, It was the fight i was most exited for this year, It was the most intersting fight of the year, I think they could of rebooked it for a co-main spot for a fight night or on the main card of UFC 271 card, That fight was really good, It was just so intreging who going to win, It was 50-50, I think I was leaning Movser

I think Topuria vs Jourdain might be a more "fun" fight honesly for the people who like that, But i just don't find it intersting, Topuria clearly going to win, The Movser fight was going to be way more grappling focas, But it just intersting, And I like fight to be somewhat intersting, I don't care for fight that ain't intersting, I like to have fights where you don't what going to happen, 

* Edited at 01.17.2022, 4:15 AM ET *

I like your picks bro, they look good and I like your reasoning.

Only one I dont agree with is the Gane pick but thats a close fight.

The Hansen/Jasmin fight is a toss up but I will always go with the wrestler in those situations if the gas tank is ok so will edge Hansen in that one.