UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Junior tafa is a Giga Chad for stepping in 

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whitaker's gonna tear apart that social media clown Paulo Costa because he's nothing but a pretty face with no real skill. Costa's just a poser, all flash and no substance, probably spends more time flexing for his Instagram followers than actually training. Whitaker's gonna make him regret ever stepping into the Octagon, mark my words. Costa's gonna be crying for likes and shares after Whitaker's done humiliating him in front of the whole world.

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria
Ilia Topuria is gonna smoke Volkanovski like a cheap cigar because the Aussie's just a pint-sized pretender with no real skill. Topuria's gonna dance circles around him, making Volkanovski look like a clumsy toddler in there. It's gonna be embarrassing to watch, but hey, that's what you get when you put a champ against a chump like Volkanovski. Get ready for the beatdown of the century, folks!

Rogério de Lima vs. Tafa
Junior Tafa, TKO, R1
Justin pulls out of the fight with an injury and Junior steps in. My pick is gonna be Junior. De Lima has no head movement and he's gonna close the distance and gets absolutely wrecked quick and early too.

Rehydration? As in they do hydration testing?

Rogério de Lima vs. Tafa
Junior Tafa, TKO, R1
Rogerio will most likely whoop that ass but I'm going Tafa as an expression of respect 💯

tonight will test if Dern can handle the striking of the top 5 strawweights

So far it that hasn’t gone well

If Junior Tafa was ready to step in for this one, it begs the question of why he didn't already have a fight lined up? He's only 27 and it's been almost 6 months since he fought and that was a quick KO for him. I'd expect him to have been back or at least have locked in a fight by now.

Nakamura vs. Vera
Rinya Nakamura, TKO, R1
Vera will be expecting a very different gameplan from Nakamura, who comes out with a fire to end this early. Vera gets clipped trying to react to a rush, tko 1.

Zhang vs. Ribeiro
Mingyang Zhang, TKO, R1
Id venture to say “lock”…Zhang drops him early, and it just ends in a anticlimactic fashion.

Quinlan vs. Barlow
Danny Barlow, TKO, R1
Barlow feigns a takedown early to keep Quinlan thinking and lands a hook up high that teases the same feign. Quinlan drops and Barlow storms. Tko GnP 1.

Woodburn vs. Elliott
Oban Elliott, SUB, R2
RNC after peppering ground and pound for the majority of the 2nd. Oban does great avoiding big striking exchanges.

Lee vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
This fight screams split decision, going 29-28x2 28-29. I feel Maverick can turn a leaf, but the fight being the opener seems to point to the UFC not being as high on Maverick, but still a PPV opener. Maverick does enough to get the win over a tough Lee.

Rogério de Lima vs. Tafa
Junior Tafa, TKO, R1
Wild card so far, this seems like one of those Barry vs Kongo fights, where something insane happens. Give me Tafa to land a wild shot that sends De Lima wobbling and Tafa follows up with strong GnP.

I have a sneaking suspicion that if Dern wins, her success will at least be set up by striking. Lemos has shown even before the Weili fight that she can be pressured, and Dern hits hard and is tenacious. Idk, maybe I'm nervous about having money on Amanda. Any updates on her hydration issues?

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, R4
TKO back mount ground and pound, Alex is an S-tier game planner. He will tag Ilia at will, land leg kicks that slow Ilia down, and eventually tag him, frustrate him, and take advantage of the mistakes. Ilia gets cracked early round 4 and gives up position in the process, the bell is the only thing that can really help him, and its minutes away. Ref steps in when the shots become to powerful from a postured up position.

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, DEC
29-28x3. Robbie gets cracked at one point but grinds back to fight to a wildly entertaining decision victory. Split 29-28x2 28-29

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Geoff Neal, DEC
29-28x3 UNI. It seems Garry might have sharpened his own game rather than focusing on his opponent here. Neal realized Shavkat was the gauntlet, Garry does not offer nearly the threat as Shavkat. Neal will be much more relaxed here and will be highly motivated to not lose two in a row to prospects.

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
30-27x2 29-28 dec its all Merab.

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Roman Kopylov, DEC
Brutal fight, Fluffy gets visibly tagged and bloodied, while Kopylov controls the octagon. 29-28x2 30-27

Lemos vs. Dern
Amanda Lemos, DEC
Motivated Lemos puts a stamp on this fight for almost 15 minutes with a slight scare at one point. 30-27x2 30-26 Uni

If it makes you feel better I'm betting Dern. Also wondering about hydration. I didn't even know the UFC test for that.

I'm betting enough on this card that it could be my best or worst card of all time. Lots of nice dogs on this one.

I can't help but feel like Costa will present hell to Bobby Knucks in the first round, but also simultaneously that Whittaker, jabbing away at range, should absolutely dogwalk Costa.

So many fights on this card have the potential to be bangers, I'm hoping it pulls through that way.

Final thoughts on this fight. Such an interesting fight. I know almost everyone is on Merab, but I am not so sure.

Both fighters are facing something that they haven't before. Henry is facing someone who will pressure him and push him back and wrestle him relentlessly. Merab is facing someone who can defend his takedowns and maybe pressure him back. The closest Merab has faced to a wrestler of this level is probably Cody Stamann and Ricky Simon, and both were able to get some takedowns on Merab themselves. There are a few interesting points here, one being that though Merab gets tons of takedowns he does not have good top pressure so this will allow Henry to get back up. Being used to 5 round fights I doubt his cardio will fail. However if Henry gets takedowns, and I think he will because Merab's takedown defense is not that good, then Henry is more likely to be able to get top control and win minutes. If Henry stuffs the takedowns I think his boxing and kick game will be better than Merab's (even though his striking has really improved). and I could see him connecting with leg and head kicks. I do worry about Henry's age, time away from the game and his motivation, his issues with his coaches and the fact that he did not train at Fight Ready this time, and his shoulder injury last year. All food for thought. End of the day this is going to be a very close fight. I could see either winning, but I just feel that Henry makes adjustments like he did in the Aljo fight, and knowing what he is in for if he can stuff the takedowns he will likely do more damage. I think he really is that good, but the outside factors always become important too.

Putting on my tin foil hat, I am guessing that the UFC want Henry to win, and they do not want Merab to beat O'Malley the cash cow and become champion. I also feel that they think Henry is the only one who can actually beat Merab, which is why they gave him this match up. The betting line is really wide in my opinion, this will be a close fight.

Leaning Cejudo by decision in a close fight where Merab wins the first, Henry adjusts and wins the last 2. Could be a split decision and knowing our MMA judges, a robbery either way too.

Your pick up of the main event being judged by Sal D'Amato, Derek Clearly and the new donkey Ron MacCarthy really has me worried. I feel Volk wins this and it goes to decision. With those 3 judging it will very likely be a split and I can definitely see some very questionable decision making here. It has me worried with my Volkanovski by decision bets.