UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Joshjeffords 

he will never have a shot at the belt. Mark my words.

@pashaboyer 

Cause he's gonna win the new 175 belt instead

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, R3
El Matador is good but I don’t think he can handle 5 rounds with The Great

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, DEC
Costa by KO or Whittaker by Decision are the only outcomes I see happening

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Machado Garry, DEC
Garry 30-27

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Merab by 68 takedown attempts

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R2
Hernandez by SUB if Kopylov can’t keep the fight standing

Lemos vs. Dern
Amanda Lemos, DEC
Amandinha by late KO or Decision

Rogério de Lima vs. Tafa
Justin Tafa, TKO, R1
Bad Man gets a Bad Knockout

Nakamura vs. Vera
Rinya Nakamura, TKO, R1
Vera’s chances of winning this fight are “Pequeno”

Zhang vs. Ribeiro
Mingyang Zhang, TKO, R1
More like “Win”gyang Zhang

Quinlan vs. Barlow
Danny Barlow, TKO, R1
Barlow is gonna set the “Barhigh”

Woodburn vs. Elliott
Oban Elliott, SUB, R2
Elliott is going to put “The Animal” to sleep

Lee vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
The only thing I “fear” is a snooze fest to start off the card

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 1:18 AM ET *

I saw Lemos lift 80kg(185lbs) over her head during the promotion of her last fight. That nuts for a women who walk around weight would be 60kg(135lbs), most men can’t  do that ****, I’m a gym bro and can’t do that. Dern in trouble if she can’t get her grappling going

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 3:41 AM ET *

Definitely a good chance Barlow KO’s Quinlan, especially cause Quinlan leaves himself open after he throws his big wide overhands, but at the same time he does keep his guard high. I’m tempted of talking a shot of Barlow Dec, but still unsure at this moment in time.

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 4:39 AM ET *

Alexander VolkanovskiVS Ilia Topuria:
I think Volk implements a heavy leg kicking gameplan to take advantage of Ilia's lead leg exposure, and mixes in grappling to tire Ilia out to a decision victory. Ilia has shown that despite having fantastic stand-up skills, he struggles to deal with kicks (Jai Herbert, Steven Goncalves, etc) and as seen in the Mitchell fight, grappling saps his gas tank quickly. That being said, Ilia has very good boxing and maintains knockout power throughout 5 rounds - I think this will be Volk's toughest test to date, and Ilia is very live, but the greatest FW in UFC history will prevail and show us, once again, why he is the best.

Robert WhittakerVS Paulo Costa:
Theonlyadvantages Paulo has here are his physicality - which he will not be able to impose on Rob, who is just too fast and too technical for someone like Paulo, and his chin, which again I think will be a non factor in this fight. I think we see Rob put on a masterclass here, and am expecting a Vettori-esque dominant decision victory, I truly think Paulo has nothing for him unless he can somehow pressure Rob up against the cage.

Geoff NealVS Ian Machado Garry:
I could see a world where Ian outpoints his way to a victory at distance. But, Ian has been in trouble after eating a big shot at some point in all of his fights (bar the DRod fight) so far - and one thing Geoff does better than any opponent Ian has faced so hard iscrack- very hard. I think Geoff will hurt Ian at some point during the 15 minutes, and when he does, Ian will crumble. I don't think he is the most durable fighter, especially compared to someone like Luque who Neal absolutely destroyed, and on top of this I doubt Ian is in a good place mentally following the drama that's surrounded him outside of the cage.

Merab DvalishviliVS Henry Cejudo:
Ceujdo is better than Merab everywhere but pace, and ultimately that is what will decide this fight.Nobodyin the division can match Merab's pace, I think Merab will spam TD attempts non stop whilst trying to smother Henry up against the cage. It will be an ugly fight but the optics and aggression will favour Merab who will take the fight via close decision.

Anthony HernandezVS Roman Kopylov:
Very bad matchup for Kopylov - whilst he has looked very improved in his recent performances and is undoubtedly the better striker in this matchup, Hernandez is like a MW Merab and will put on a relentless grappling pace that I don't think Kopylov will be able to keep up with. I can see Kopylov taking the first round, and if he goes all out targeting the body, he could very well finish Hernandez, but he is not known for his KO power. I see Fluffy breaking him eventually, leading to a dominant 29-28 or third round finish.

Amanda LemosVS Mackenzie Dern:
I will preface this breakdown by stating that Ihatebetting on WMMA. But Lemos at -135? Really? She opened as a -215 favourite and I thought that was not wide enough. I can't believe people are actually picking Dern, much less betting on her. I think Lemos is going to light her up on the feet despite Dern's improved striking, the power difference is night and day. Following Lemos' defeat to Weili, I have no doubt she will have improved her grappling game, and even if she has not I think she's able to stop Dern's pathetic takedown attempts with strength alone. In the case this does somehow go to the mat, Dern is not the killer we once believed she was, and Lemos is competent enough to survive on the ground with her. I see Amanda dominating the fight and I am shocked Dern would even accept this matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaVS Justin Tafa:
This one is a bit of a coinflip fight to me. I could see Tafa catching de Lima with a bomb but that is his only way of winning this fight. De Lima has serviceable striking and grappling and I can see him mixing it up VS a very one dimensional Tafa. De Lima also has a better strength of schedule, Tafa has 0 wins VS good fighters in the UFC.

Rinya NakamuraVS Carlos Vera:
This should be Rinya all day, any way he pleases. I could see Rinya scoring a KO on the feet, but I think he will take Vera down and dominate him on the ground. Easy R1 ground & pound or sub, I was not impressed with Vera on TUF in the slightest.

Mingyang ZhangVS Brendson Ribeiro:
Like everyone else is saying, I doubt this one gets out of the first. Coinflip fight in my opinion, and whilst the measurables might favour Ribeiro, I think Zhang has looked the better of the two recently. I also that Zhang has been putting in work with XCMMA, I think he'll be able to close the distance and land a huge shot that puts Ribeiro out early.

Josh Quinlan VSDanny Barlow:
I am very high on Danny Barlow. He has an insane reach for this division, coupled with very impressive knock out power, and he stays very calm in the cage and picks his shots very well. Josh, on the other hand looked absolutely terrible in his last fight VS Waters, he simply couldn't find a way to close the distance. Whilst not as long as Waters, Danny knows how to use his 80 inch reach very well. I can see him KOing Josh in R1 or early R2. I hope he plans to use this reach advantage but I am a bit worried as I saw an interview of his where he said his gameplan would be to close the distance on Josh and get in his face. This worries me as Quinlan has nuclear power even off the roids, and he did show good grappling in R1 of his fight VS Waters. Although Barlow is competent on the ground I don't think he'd be able to get up from under Quinlan, who is very strong with great control and BJJ. That being said, I doubt Quinlan can implement an offensive grappling game over 3 rounds, and on the feet I think it's Barlow all day if he comes in calm with a smart gameplan, which he has done up to date.

Val Woodburn VSOban Elliott:
I have been following Oban's career since his early CW days. He is a decent striker (looked career best on the feet in his DWCS fight) very tough, and has good cage wrestling which I think his more than enough to win him this fight. Woodburn looks terrible on tape, struggling to finish 40 year old jobbers. I think he is outclassed everywhere, other than maybe 1 shot power. I will beverysurprised if Woodburn wins this.

Andrea Lee VSMiranda Maverick: 
I see Maverick taking a dominant decision here. She has let me down in the past, but Lee is a shell of herself at this stage, riding 3 consecutive losses. I think it's a good fight to get Miranda back on track, who just won silver at IBJJF no-gi back in December and has recently been given her black belt. I lean towards Lee very slightly on the feet, but I think Miranda will come in with a grappling heavy gameplan and impose her physicality on Lee, controlling her way to a victory against the cage and on the ground whilst landing ground & pound shots and attempting submissions. 

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 6:39 AM ET *

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Geoff Neal, TKO, R2
Goodbye hype train Mr I keep my chin up for the taking neal exposes the scared little boy Ian Garry who's wife also has his balls in a handbag

Aside from the main event, I am thinking Kopylov v Fluffy has a great chance of being fight of the night.  Out of all the fights on this card, this is the only one I keep going back and forth with my pick

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 9:57 AM ET *

@Joshjeffords 

Paulo is constantly attacking the body and is a powerhouse just like DDP. 5 rounds he would probably get smoked but this is 3 rounds and he has had 3 straight camps since the last 2 fights were cancelled. Rob coming off a tough loss and doesn’t have the best chin, but is much more technical than Paulo so it should be interesting. I just think Paulo will catch him by the power of secret juice 

Woodburn vs. Elliott
Val Woodburn, TKO, R2
Wales isn't real

@Golliwog 

welcome to tapology buddy

hello andrew

@baremaras 

100% Andrew with a name like golliwog 

Quinlan vs. Barlow
Danny Barlow, TKO, R2
Both guys can bring show stopping power to the fight. Barlow will have the height and reach advantage. I look for Quinlan to be the agressor early to get Barlow out of there. But I am leaning towards Barlow to use one of his longer rangy weapons to hit Quinlan and get the KO.

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 10:41 AM ET *

Well that didn’t last long

Such a great card, can't wait for Saturday night! 

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, TKO, R3
Robert gonna finish costa via tko

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
29-28 merab

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Anthony Hernandez, DEC
30-27

Zhang vs. Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro, TKO, R1
I don't see this fight lasting long. Just a gut lean that Ribeiro is going to get there first and get the KO.