UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@umbert 

I don’t think that’s the official layout of the card, I mean, I think he organized it a couple weeks ago into the order we see today

@depmode33 

I kinda have the same feeling, it‘s weird and I can‘t say why. Like @LandonRights said, the Whittaker pick just feels too obvious. But I picked him anyways because it just doesn‘t make sense to me that Costa would beat Whittaker when his last impressive performance was almost five years ago and he couldn‘t manage to KO Luke Rockhold who has a worse chin than Whittaker

@umbert 

the order on tapology is the correct order. You can also double check on the UFC website or Fight Pass

Alexander Volkanovskivs.Ilia Topuria
Volk, Decision
I've liked Volk the more I've thought about this one. He has the perfect style to beat Topuria - straight shots to keep Topuria at a distance and a position over submission ground game coupled with relentless ground & pound when it hits the mat. Not to mention the vast experience advantage. Topuria's looked like a beast but who's he really fought? He won a decision against Emmett after Yair ran through Emmett in 2 rounds. Volk battered Max on the feet and hung with Islam on the ground for 5 rounds. Chubby, drunk Volk on a weeks notice fighting in Saudi got head kicked. I'm gonna ignore it. Topruia has been rushed to the belt to give Volk a challenge, the UFC weren't confident in the Max, Yair or Evloev gauntlet

Robert Whittakervs.Paulo Costa
Whitakker, Decision
Paulo couldn't finish Rockhold in 2023 so why would I believe he can finish Whittaker? Dricus is a beast as it turns out. Whitakker demoralised Marvin who beat Paulo with a 30lbs advantage. I know we shouldn't MMA math but that's quite good MMA math. I'm not ready to give up on Whitakker over one KO and I haven't seen Paulo KO anyone in half a decade... But he's tough to finish too. So Whitakker by decision.

Geoff Nealvs.Ian Machado Garry
Garry, Decision
If Garry can stay off the fence he'll touch Neal for 3 rounds to a safe decision. He knows damn well if he gets caught along the fence he could be in for a walloping so he'll make this dull and safe, which is what he needs to do.

Merab Dvalishvilivs.Henry Cejudo 
Merab, Decision
Turns out I foresee a lot of decisions. Merab is like Aljo with better wrestling and a faster pace. Not sure how that helps Henry? Merab will shoot and shoot and shoot, so unless Henry chins Merab - which I doubt, then we all know how this goes. 

In hindsight this card will probably be very obvious but I could see almost every fight going either way.

@pashaboyer 

Fair to point out that Tafa doesn't have the best of cardio. I don't see this being a high-volume striking contest. Pezao definitely the more experienced of grapplers but uses his grappling more for position rather than landing damage. I agree in Tafa's career, he will have to rely mainly on his power shots to stop the fight but not necessarily for this one. De Lima's strike volume is rather abysmal even in clinch and ground scenarios doesn't really use it well. If Tafa can use decent footwork to stay off the cage and keep De Lima in space, he will be able to land damage. His strike volume won't be great but definitely would see more output on the feet than Pezao. 

De Lima has very bad cardio too. Only 8-9 minutes and then he gets very tired. I could see him winning two rounds but I don’t think tafa is going to let him survive round 3. 

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, TKO, R2
I think it it wasn't for Volk's last performance, I'd pick him. Sure, it was at lightweight on short notice, but the quick turnaround combined with his age have me worried. Topuria's confidence is absolutely peaking, and he's likely got the speed and power advantage, and he'll likely just try to ignore Volk's genuinely clever striking setups to power through with his own offense. That might be enough for this version of Volk. Hope I'm wrong, but I think Topuria sparks a more cautious Volk after a competitive first round.

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, DEC
I think Bobby Knuckles is on the decline, but Costa hasn't looked good since 2019. Even in their primes I think Costa would really struggle with Whittaker's jab and range game. Another decision win for my boy Whittaker IMO.

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Geoff Neal, TKO, R3
Kind of a vibe pick, but Neal is at his best when he feels he's being disrespected. The whole Garry drama is stupid but it seems like it's gotten to him a bit. Thinking/hoping Neal can create longer exchanges and spark Garry when he loses focus.

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Merab's performance against Yan is still one of the most impressive I've ever seen on a physical level. Cejudo is better everywhere on a technical level, but he's 37 and he's never been a super dominant MMA wrestler. Think Merab just never let's him get going and is passed over for a title shot after another decision win.

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R3
Really like both these guys, but I feel Kopylov's previous losses are more damning. He's a slow starter, and he hasn't really faced any committed wrestlers during his current streak. Against a pressure fighter like Hernandez, that seems like a recipe for disaster.

Lemos vs. Dern
Amanda Lemos, TKO, R2
Dern's wrestling is still mostly brute strength, and she isn't gonna outmuscle Lemos. Lemos isn't that great anywhere outside of her physicality, but if you're a better athlete than Dern you'll probably beat her if you don't jump into her guard.

Rogério de Lima vs. Tafa
Marcos Rogério de Lima, TKO, R1
Really hope this one's over in the first round because if not, this is gonna be awful.

@gliese58i 

still laughing over "hi everybody I'm new to Tap" ha you're on your game

Lemos vs. Dern
Amanda Lemos, TKO, R2
Both ladies looking for a significant win after coming up short in their last contests. Dern shown moments of regression in the striking particulary, losing via round 2 TKO against Jessica Andrade. Lemos was on the opposite end of a masterclass performance by Zhang Welli tallying 163 SS and 6 takedowns. Lemos had her moments early with a sneaky D'arce choke that Zhang was able to weather. In this matchup, I think Dern is definitely live to throw in a submission. Lemos did just give up 6 takedowns but Dern doesn't have that in her repertoire. Dern can land with volume, but has shown to hang out in her combinations too long and expose herself to counters. Lemos won't have the volume that Andrade did with Dern, but has the same pressure style striking and can use her physicality to keep herself upright, land the more impactful shots and get the nod. Dern seemed she didn't want to be there after taking shots from Andrade. I feel a lot of the same here.

Idk why the press was so short, I blinked once and boom, they were already facing off

Go to @RichardShoreMMA, they thought Oban Elliott vs Val Woodburn was at 185 LBS instead of 170.

Oban Elliott weighed 198 this morning, 28 pounds in 2 hours to get off.

Damn I thought they were trolling when they posted that. How the actual **** do you sign a contract and not know what the contracted weight is 

Sometimes you're handed a layup. I'm glad you enjoyed it.

hurry up weigh in's, I'm tired of pretending I'm working.

Tafa vs de Lima cancelled. Tafa injury

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, DEC
The terrible head KO and especially the revelation of his mental health issues after his loss to Islam is what scares me over picking Volk. Topuria has the momentum and the moment just seems perfect for him. What I think is an underrated factor is that Topuria is also stocky just like Volk which will even out their grappling/wrestling skills. Volks striking is excellent.. I mean the guy literally beat Holloway 3x but I feel like Topuria has strong boxing fundamentals with strong defense, hands up, and x and y movement of head. I can see Topuria knocking down Volk in the early rounds but Volk being the goat of FW class, he comes back and wins rounds 4-5. Topuria via 48-47 unanimous decision.

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, DEC
Over the years, we have seen a string of losing streaks for former champs... Petr Yan and Usman. I hope this is not the start of Whittaker's decline as well cos he looked terrible in that loss against Du plessis. But this weekend he is facing Costa who is known for power but he couldn't even finish a washed Luke Rockhold. Besides, Costa is inactive and this will definitely favour Whittaker. Whittaker via 29-28 unanimous decision.

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Geoff Neal, TKO, R3
Garry is gonna win the minutes but Neal gonna have the bigger moments and reaction. Garry's chin is sus.. I mean he got nearly finished by Song kenan. He has that tall man's defense and I feel like Neal can catch him right on the money. Neal via 3rd round TKO.

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Merab by spamming 30 takedown attempts while at the same time, putting out insane volume on the feet as well. Cejudo gonna realize he should've stayed retired. Merab's heavy offense and excellent cardio will be too much for the old man.

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R1
I'm a fan of Kopylov but I have to pick Hernandez. Short notice fight for Kopylov only makes it worse as he is known for struggling on the mat. Fluffy via 1st round sub.

COSTA MADE WEIGHT

Costa seems more focused than before

I knew there was no way in hell Val was making 170 lol he's a ball of muscle and has never fought at 170 in his life